How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Artkin]

5 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Is there anything on the planet that can take a hit from the  M892A3 or A4?

I think maybe something like T-90AM with the modernized ERA on the turret could probably stop it somewhat. Without ERA I dont think so. Who knows about Western MBTs, and how much better they could be after ERA slapped on them too. M1A2 TUSK 2 in CMBS weighs 63 tons. I think Leopard 2A6 might be a touch over that, and Challenger 2 is definitely over that. So it wouldn't be too outlandish to assume their turret armor might be a bit better or equal on the front, and could stand a chance too. I know for a fact the Western MBTs dont penetrate each other very quickly in CMSF2.

8 minutes ago, c3k said:

The rod is frequently supported by a "stick". So, just because the round is that long does not mean the rod is, as well.

(I think 10:1 length:diameter is currently what is used...for lots of reasons.)  

The extra shell length allows for a LOT of extra powder.

I wonder what the muzzle velocity/muzzle energy will be?

I don't understand what the "stick" part of this is. As far as I know this is my limited understanding of how apfsds works:

and nothing really stood out to me when looking at blueprints. Maybe the stick is on the bottom of the rod,  above where the reusable primer would be?

 

The KF51 is supposed to be somewhat light at 59 tons despite the new gun. I wonder if they are aiming for a new approach, similar to CV90 which was designed with high operational/tactical mobility in mind.

[Calamine Waffles]

Possibly Duplet with Zaslon APS degrading it?

[Letter from Prague]

Hi there, another former lurker reporting.

I want to say you're all incredible (except the Russian/pro-Russian trolls who can go nahui), and reading this thread I could not only stay up to date but I also learned so much about armies, tactics, politics and more. I do have to admin my knowledge of Combat Mission is limited to youtube tutorials at this point (Any plans for Mac version? Probably wouldn't be worth it since it's a custom engine.)

I don't have much to else add: maybe arguing how "EU Army" would never work (just imagine it's led by Macron and Scholz), and that I find West response very underwhelming - considering Russia invaded another nation, caused atrocities not seen in Europe since WW2, kidnapped and enslaved hundreds of thousands of people including children, shelled largest nuclear power plant in Europe, purposefully caused largest refugee crisis in Europe since WW2 and is purposefully trying to cause famine by ****ing with grain supply ... I would hope that even one or two of those would get an actual military response, but no such luck.

Oh and regarding Crimea - assuming Sevastopol is burning pile of rubble as is the bridge, I wouldn't expect the type of people who went to inhabit Crimean houses stolen from murdered people to want to stay.

[Gpig]

7 minutes ago, Letter_from_Prague said:

(Any plans for Mac version? Probably wouldn't be worth it since it's a custom engine.)

I've been playing Combat Mission on a mac since 2000, you'll be happy to know.  (They make a version of the game for Windows/MAC)

Edit:  Oh! And welcome to the thread 

 

Edited June 14, 2022 by Gpig

[Letter from Prague]

6 minutes ago, Gpig said:

I've been playing Combat Mission on a mac since 2000, you'll be happy to know.  (They make a version of the game for Windows/MAC)

Edit:  Oh! And welcome to the thread 

 

Oh.

I looked only at the Steam version.

Ok, I have a purchase to make.

[sburke]

6 minutes ago, Letter_from_Prague said:

Oh.

I looked only at the Steam version.

Ok, I have a purchase to make.

heh more than one eventually......  it gets pretty addictive.

and once you give it a spin make sure to hit the scenario and mod depots..

https://www.thefewgoodmen.com/cm-mod-warehouse/

 

[dan/california]

36 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

How you read those news about Ukrainian moves in forests west of Izyum? Read somewhere it was 81st brigade and SOF pushing more forward, perhaps even trying to reach the city outskirts (seems dubious for now). Definitelly Russians can't get cosy in those woods.

Would love to see the firms data for that spot.

[Beleg85]

15 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Would love to see the firms data for that spot.

Will look at it, I think WarMonitor mentioned something like that in one of his constant adrenaline rants and there were some Polish observers conjectures, but it seemed dubious to me as well. There are certainly some fights in those woods, though.

Edited June 14, 2022 by Beleg85

[c3k]

1 hour ago, Artkin said:

I think maybe something like T-90AM with the modernized ERA on the turret could probably stop it somewhat. Without ERA I dont think so. Who knows about Western MBTs, and how much better they could be after ERA slapped on them too. M1A2 TUSK 2 in CMBS weighs 63 tons. I think Leopard 2A6 might be a touch over that, and Challenger 2 is definitely over that. So it wouldn't be too outlandish to assume their turret armor might be a bit better or equal on the front, and could stand a chance too. I know for a fact the Western MBTs dont penetrate each other very quickly in CMSF2.

I don't understand what the "stick" part of this is. As far as I know this is my limited understanding of how apfsds works:

and nothing really stood out to me when looking at blueprints. Maybe the stick is on the bottom of the rod,  above where the reusable primer would be?

 

The KF51 is supposed to be somewhat light at 59 tons despite the new gun. I wonder if they are aiming for a new approach, similar to CV90 which was designed with high operational/tactical mobility in mind.

Bold.

Yeah. Obviously, I don't know if the 130mm APFSDS round has a full-length rod or not. But, the "stick" is there in other rounds. There is a limit to length:diameter ratios, especially dependent upon the metal/alloy used and the planned impact velocities.

Here are some good images, showing how advances in metallurgy have allowed longer rods:

 

 

Edited to add: that 10:1 is old. I'm seeing research going as far as 20:1 Length:Diameter. So, don't go around quoting 10:1 at the bar.  

Edited June 14, 2022 by c3k

[Harmon Rabb]

1 hour ago, Letter_from_Prague said:

Hi there, another former lurker reporting.

I want to say you're all incredible (except the Russian/pro-Russian trolls who can go nahui), and reading this thread I could not only stay up to date but I also learned so much about armies, tactics, politics and more. I do have to admin my knowledge of Combat Mission is limited to youtube tutorials at this point (Any plans for Mac version? Probably wouldn't be worth it since it's a custom engine.)

I don't have much to else add: maybe arguing how "EU Army" would never work (just imagine it's led by Macron and Scholz), and that I find West response very underwhelming - considering Russia invaded another nation, caused atrocities not seen in Europe since WW2, kidnapped and enslaved hundreds of thousands of people including children, shelled largest nuclear power plant in Europe, purposefully caused largest refugee crisis in Europe since WW2 and is purposefully trying to cause famine by ****ing with grain supply ... I would hope that even one or two of those would get an actual military response, but no such luck.

Oh and regarding Crimea - assuming Sevastopol is burning pile of rubble as is the bridge, I wouldn't expect the type of people who went to inhabit Crimean houses stolen from murdered people to want to stay.

Welcome aboard Letter from Prague!

Don't know if you are from Prague but I visited that city a few years back. Truly beautiful city.

[Machor]

16 hours ago, Grigb said:

Other less developed regions are searching in Yandex and google not because they do not trust official channels but because official channels are not generally useful.

Quoting myself with emphasis added: "That these regions are actively searching for information on Google can be seen as an indication that they do not trust and/or are not satisfied with the information from the Russian press, and search results from Yandex."

16 hours ago, Grigb said:

Also, in and on is not reliable metric to separate liberals and nationalists. It is an overblown issue nobody cares about.

And yet, St. Pete drops from 55th to 75th place when you switch from in to on - there is a clear preference that begs for a correlation with St. Pete's liberal political climate.

16 hours ago, Grigb said:

Sorry, mate, it is wrong. Moscow and St. Peterburg much more liberal and knowledgeable population does not search for news in Yandex (it is heavily sanitized) and rarely use google for that (not that useful for Russian speaking news).

Here are population statistics I took from Wikipedia - estimated 2018 populations for:

Chukotka Autonomous Okrug - 49,348

Jewish Autonomous Oblast - 162,014

Moscow - 12,506,468

St. Petersburg - 5,351,935

Now, Google Trends does not give the full data necessary for statistical analysis, but given the fact that the former two greatly outrank the latter two while having only 1% of their population, your account could be the sole explanation of this only if almost nobody searches on Google in Moscow and St. Pete. In other words, there can be no denying there has to be an effect of people's level of interest, which for sure coexists with other effects such as usage habits, level of unemployment, etc.

[Machor]

5 hours ago, fireship4 said:

In addition to those links provided by @cesmonkey there is this picture also linked by Kamil Galeev:

EDIT: You can use this site to help translate the text (you might want to use this version of the image as it is bigger without the English notation).

And Buryatia, Kostroma, and the Jewish Oblast were among the top five for Ukraine searches as per Google Trends data that I posted about. 

Incidentally, while in my original post I hypothesized that the high ranking of Belgorod and Bryansk is due to bordering Ukraine, I am now wondering if the ranking reflects searches by Russian troops waiting to enter Ukraine - my data reflected the sum of the last three months.

[Machor]

We kept seeing videos of Russian - and later Ukrainian - aviation being employed as flying MLRS, but this is the first video I've seen where you can actually see how those rockets impact:

 

[Machor]

WaPo article on Ukraine's Javelin woes - apparently, they require careful maintenance, and there are issues with both that and training with the numbers that have been supplied:

For Ukrainian troops, a need arises: Javelin customer service

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/06/14/ukraine-javelin-assistance/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

 

[dan/california]

If I am looking at maps correctly this should put the airport in range of tube artillery.

 

[panzermartin]

6 minutes ago, Machor said:

We kept seeing videos of Russian - and later Ukrainian - aviation being employed as flying MLRS, but this is the first video I've seen where you can actually see how those rockets impact:

 

Maybe the distance is deceiving but not so spread out as I had thought.  The experts here claimed this was a way to cowardly get rid of their weapons and tick mission accomplished in the report. A bit unfair to the pilots. Seems everyone is going indirect in this war from tanks to helos, as there are way too many weapons waiting for the kill.

Probably another topic emerging... the end of the helicopter? 

[Ultradave]

1 hour ago, Letter_from_Prague said:

Oh.

I looked only at the Steam version.

Ok, I have a purchase to make.

Oh, right. The Steam (and also Matrix/Slitherene) versions are Windows only. For Mac versions you order directly from Battlefront. They aren't "signed" so when you install and when you run the first time, right click and open to bypass the security stop, and answer one "open anyway" answer and you'll be all set.  Not to worry - Battlefront is perfectly safe, just that they haven't got the Apple blessing Been playing Combat Mission on a Mac for many years, and all titles are available for Mac and run really well.

Dave

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Maybe the distance is deceiving but not so spread out as I had thought.  The experts here claimed this was a way to cowardly get rid of their weapons and tick mission accomplished in the report. A bit unfair to the pilots. Seems everyone is going indirect in this war from tanks to helos, as there are way too many weapons waiting for the kill.

Probably another topic emerging... the end of the helicopter? 

Yeah, they are over. A helicopter is pretty much a huge flying kill me sign at this point. And some drones can do a LOT of the missions now.

You can probably aim this thing better with an Iphone than a great pilot can with a helicopter using the lofting technique, and you can buy what, twenty of them? Fifty? I realize their are much better missiles, but you can put those on trucks, too.

[panzermartin]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

Yeah, they are over. A helicopter is pretty much a huge flying kill me sign at this point. And some drones can do a LOT of the missions now.

You can probably aim this thing better with an Iphone than a great pilot can with a helicopter using the lofting technique, and you can buy what, twenty of them? Fifty? I realize their are much better missiles, but you can put those on trucks, too.

Yes, I can only seem them surviving as flying APCs, transporting troops to the front while providing some first cover fire. Although most missions of this kind in Ukraine were also a disaster...

[Cederic]

8 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Yeah, they are over. A helicopter is pretty much a huge flying kill me sign at this point. And some drones can do a LOT of the missions now.

You can probably aim this thing better with an Iphone than a great pilot can with a helicopter using the lofting technique, and you can buy what, twenty of them? Fifty? I realize their are much better missiles, but you can put those on trucks, too.

There's still a role for helicopters.

Lifting that truck to the front line and resupplying its ammunition..

[G.I. Joe]

11 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Yeah, they are over. A helicopter is pretty much a huge flying kill me sign at this point. And some drones can do a LOT of the missions now.

You can probably aim this thing better with an Iphone than a great pilot can with a helicopter using the lofting technique, and you can buy what, twenty of them? Fifty? I realize their are much better missiles, but you can put those on trucks, too.

Yes, CAS in general is very likely going over to drones. I think the odds are excellent that the A-10 replacement will be a UCAV of some sort.

[Calamine Waffles]

There was an optionally manned A-10 programme at one point...

https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/defense/2012-02-24/unmanned-10-studied-future-close-air-support

[Beleg85]

On human cost of the war (perhaps it was posted in this thread):  today occupiers killed Roman Ratushnyi. The guy was just 24 and known Kyiv anti-corruption and historical activists. His beating at Maidan was one of the sparks for whole Revolution of Dignity. Served in 93rd Brigade.

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Ultradave said:

Oh, right. The Steam (and also Matrix/Slitherene) versions are Windows only. For Mac versions you order directly from Battlefront. They aren't "signed" so when you install and when you run the first time, right click and open to bypass the security stop, and answer one "open anyway" answer and you'll be all set.  Not to worry - Battlefront is perfectly safe, just that they haven't got the Apple blessing Been playing Combat Mission on a Mac for many years, and all titles are available for Mac and run really well.

Dave

Hmmm.  Mac versions should be "signed" when released to the public.  We pay for the certification, so would be silly if we don't use it!  I'll poke around to double check.

Steve

[Fenris]

39 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

On human cost of the war (perhaps it was posted in this thread):  today occupiers killed Roman Ratushnyi. The guy was just 24 and known Kyiv anti-corruption and historical activists. His beating at Maidan was one of the sparks for whole Revolution of Dignity. Served in 93rd Brigade.

 

 

Sounds like the kind of person who goes on to be a leader.  What a waste.  Makes me pretty angry.