How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[LongLeftFlank]

Jomini gives the big picture.... (but you'll need to read the fine print in that big red box.  Grab a coffee, or another drink, depending on your point on the globe)

Brother Jomini definitely ain't in the Collapse school.

Note 900 artillery pieces, which tracks with that 7:1 Ukrainian intel estimate.  Mainly pointed at Sieverdonetsk.

....Now, about that bit where the RAF completes the capture of Sieverdonetsk in the next 24 - 72 hours.....

In spite of his SOF pedigree, Chuck Pf is a lot on the rah rah  side, so bread and salt here, but nice map.

He also approvingly reposted this clip from the street fighting.

****

EDIT:  So I would humbly pronounce the entire Jomini thread essential reading for anyone following this board.  Like his namesake, he tends to be on the conservative side, but he is making sense here in light of the current facts on the ground.

BUT, I will ask a fairly obvious question:

1.   If the Russian effort rides pretty much entirely on heavy artillery right now, to the tune of about 900 tubes or launchers in the key sector; and

2.  If drones are a real pain in the arse to shoot down right now, and can roam with near impunity, day and night, limited only by their time aloft.....

Where is that swarm of several thousand drones of all shapes and sizes, kamikaze and other, that will sniff out and neutralise these tubes, as well as their LOCs? 

Or does the West need China in order to manufacture anything in bulk now?

.... And along those same lines, what's happened to the Bayraktars?  They haven't all been shot down, that's definitely not the case.  And aren't there some Gray Eagles quietly floating around?  Hmm....

I mentioned earlier General Giap snookering the French master artillerists (and they were really good!) at Dien Bien Phu by bunkering in his guns on forward slopes, refusing to play the traditional game. By the same token, conventional tube on tube counterbattery work remains important, but it may not be the only game in town any more.

So could Sieverdonetsk be a giant trap, like DBP, luring all the first line RA artillery into massing so it can be whacked by some kind of massively scaled up Aerorozvidka (with a secure line to Nellis AFB)?  Because that would be simply awesome!

As our @The_Capt hath taught us, the offence / defence equation is seriously out of balance right now -- a convergence of disruptive innovations, in Clayton Christiansen's sense -- and more Big Surprises are likely in store before this ball stops ricocheting around. 

But the waaaaiting is the hardest part.

Edited June 12, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[billbindc]

8 hours ago, Haiduk said:

I've just passed to this page and read THIS. Guys, I though this was just a joke, but now my heart is melted down and I can't reject this gift. Though, I feel myself awkward... and also huge gratitude to all of you and Kinophile personally for idea     

Worth every ****ing penny. Your updates have been excellent and enormously appreciated. 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Brother Jomini definitely ain't in the Collapse school.

He might not be, but nothing in his report contradicts that collapse is a very real possibility.  In fact, he restates some of the major elements of it, specifically about Russia's replacement problems.  Interestingly he did not report on the removal of a Buyrat unit from Severodonetsk because it nearly ceased to exist, nor the LPR mech unit (size not determined) that refused to go back into the line there. 

Then there's his report that Wagner has redeployed some significant force from Popasna to Serverodonetsk, which to me seems to confirm that Russia is having serious problems continuing the advance there.  Wagner has been used as a shock troop lately and removing it from Popasna, which is stagnated, looks like an act of desperation.  Moving units from one place to another on short notice has some significant downsides that go along with it.  Especially when the job isn't done where the unit was pulled from.

Anyhoo, the issue he raises about relative Ukrainian losses is, obviously, a valid concern.  Though I don't know that he can conclude that at the current burn rates that Ukraine is likely to burn out faster than Russia.  I'm not sure what data he's drawing from to base that statement on.

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Note 900 artillery pieces, which tracks with that 7:1 Ukrainian intel estimate.  Mainly pointed at Sieverdonetsk.

I don't know where got the 900 figure, but it would seem this number includes a large number of 122mm that, according to Russian sources, are seriously low on ammo.  This is, after all, the central area of operations for the LPR and they were explicitly mentioned as having the ammo shortage problem.

Even if this number is correct, and the ammo supply not a real problem, Russia needs to take and hold ground on a pretty significant scale.  All well and fine to have that artillery to facilitate this, but in and of itself artillery can't take or hold ground.  If Russia's infantry forces don't have the strength to advance, then they could have 1800 pieces of artillery for all the good it will do them.

Lastly, Jomini is approaching analysis similar to ISW in that he describes what Russia intends to do once it is successful in this area.  We've all lost track of how many plans Russia has made that it couldn't pull off in this war.  Taking Severodonetsk itself does very little to achieve anything beyond a PR victory.  To really put the screws to Ukraine they have to take Slovayansk and defeat (i.e. bottle and force to surrender) all of the Ukrainian forces to the east.  I have seen nothing to suggest that Russia is capable of pulling such an operation off.  Not now and not TWO MONTHS AGO when Russia started their attack to take the Donbas.

As for Kherson, we'll have to wait and see how that evolves.  Ukraine likely needs some time and experience under its belt before it can do much in the way of a broad offensive.  However, Russia can't afford to fight everywhere any more.  It is going to have to do something to address the Kherson problem and I don't know where they will get the forces to do that.

Steve

[dan/california]

6 hours ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

I am not so sure. These are the three foremost dithering Putin whispers. They could as easily be teaming up to pressure Ukraine into a compromise.

It truly can go either way. I am pretty sure they are not showing up to say nothing. People just need to keep up the pressure to say the right thing.

 

30 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Lastly, Jomini is approaching analysis similar to ISW in that he describes what Russia intends to do once it is successful in this area.  We've all lost track of how many plans Russia has made that it couldn't pull off in this war.  Taking Severodonetsk itself does very little to achieve anything beyond a PR victory.  To really put the screws to Ukraine they have to take Slovayansk and defeat (i.e. bottle and force to surrender) all of the Ukrainian forces to the east.  I have seen nothing to suggest that Russia is capable of pulling such an operation off.  Not now and not TWO MONTHS AGO when Russia started their attack to take the Donbas.

The Russians have pushed themselves past culmination, and into or at least near outright collapse at least twice. They left Kyiv at a dead run, and didn't exactly retreat gracefully from Kharkiv. The Ukrainians really haven't lost any meaningful ground since the first month. I do think the Russians are doing better in the Donbas because their rail based supply system is working, but some new NATO equipment could fix that at any time. At this point you have to assume the Ukr General Staff know what they are doing. They are holding the salient and  Severodonetsk because they think it hurts the Russians more than it hurts them.

48 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

As for Kherson, we'll have to wait and see how that evolves.  Ukraine likely needs some time and experience under its belt before it can do much in the way of a broad offensive.  However, Russia can't afford to fight everywhere any more.  It is going to have to do something to address the Kherson problem and I don't know where they will get the forces to do that.

Kherson feels much more like Kyiv or Kharkiv. The Ukrainians keep hammering things well behind the lines. They have REPEATEDLY hammered the command structure. There is real partisan pressure all the way back to Melitipol. And the Ukrainian troops just keep pushing and probing for weak spots all the time. Most of the Russian force is DPR/LPR conscripts with crap everything. I really think the whole thing in Kherson can fold at any time. The one thing I don't understand is why the bridges are still there. You have brought that up before as well. But again, at this point the Ukr command gets a presumption of competence.

[Kinophile]

Im not convinced that specific bits of NATO stock will change the larger-scale realities facing the UA.

Himars et al seem very important, and certainly very useful, but delivery is slow and low powered. Ukraine needs to hit behind the Russian lines, at their logistics and supply. It needs to hit their artillery with something other than their own artillery. This tube war stuff is not where UA should be putting its weight; its playing Russia's gme, rather than not dodging  Russians s while gut stabbing them.

UA needs to break out of this death spiral asap.:

 

 

[chrisl]

3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

So could Sieverdonetsk be a giant trap, like DBP, luring all the first line RA artillery into massing so it can be whacked by some kind of massively scaled up Aerorozvidka (with a secure line to Nellis AFB)?  Because that would be simply awesome!

Not just luring the artillery, but becoming a sink into which the RA can just keep throwing resources because it's easy to get them there by rail.  So Russia is like a drunk looking for his keys under the streetlight because the light is better there, and UA keeps coming over and making jangly noises, but is going to to find the keys over in the dark where they got dropped and go steal RA's car (or keep destroying BTGs).  It's easy for the RA to keep feeding the attack there, so they do regardless of the futility and it just saps their resources faster.

[Grigb]

3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Note 900 artillery pieces, which tracks with that 7:1 Ukrainian intel estimate.  Mainly pointed at Sieverdonetsk.

Biggest mistake western analyst make regarding Ru artillery is counting number of Russians tubes thinking they produce the same firepower per tube as western ones. It is not the tubes you need to count but round expenditure per gun. Soviet/Russian arty love to exaggerate the firepower by inflating number of tubes while decreasing available rounds per gun for engagement.

They love to say we have ****load of tubes per km of front or we just engaged enemy target with ****load of tubes, go, there is nobody alive there (RU infantry goes, UKR infantry climb out of dugouts and shoots RU infantry to pieces - rinse and repeat until some parts of RU artillery finally zeroes on actual UKR firing points then UKR infantry retreats to the next defensive line). But if you look at actual expenditure per gun the picture is different.

For example, during Goose Green battle UK 3 tubes expended 900 rounds. That is 300 rounds per gun per engagement. Battle was bloody but it was won.

On other hand during the battle for hill 776 the VDV 10 SPGs expended 800-1200 round (depending on the period you take). That is 120 rounds per gun per engagement. The result - two pieces got broken, at least 40% of own troops got hit by friendly arty fire, defense collapsed, and company was overrun and destroyed. 

On paper 3 UK tubes vs 10 RU tubes in support look bad. In reality though...

3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Where is that swarm of several thousand drones of all shapes and sizes, kamikaze and other, that will sniff out and neutralise these tubes, as well as their LOCs? 

According to reports small drones like quadcopters are not that useful against artillery - range, time and wind issues. What is needed is a bigger one (akin to airplane not copter) comparable to Orlan. 

[Aragorn2002]

9 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Its interesting, and certainly has elements to be concerned about (eg Scholz not being very supportive).  They could easily be coming with Putin's latest nonsense.

Hopefully Zelensky wont fumble this like he did with the German Prez. 

But he did give himself a Golden armor right from the outset, when he made it clear any settlement would require a fill referendum. Minsk/Munich is not happening again. 

Biden has said that Zelensky ignored his warnings about the coming invasion of Ukraine by Putin. That statement wasn't well recieved in the Ukraine. Why did Biden say this? And why now?

There's a lot more going on than we can monitor in this thread. Much can be said about Scholz and Macron (and other European leaders), but they are no fools, nor badly informed. You can bet that the European intelligence services are equally well informed about the Ukraine as those of the US or China.

The reality is:

1. Europe has a lot more to lose than the US in this conflict, both economically and politically. It can't shout everything it feels like.

2. Europe (including Germany and France) is supporting Ukraine no less than the US, just not as loudly and openly. Apart from that Europe will have to pay most of the bill, once this war is over.

3. It's always wise to keep your options open.

4. The European view on the development of the war in Ukraine is less rosy than that of the US and with good reason. When all is said and done Russia is still a force to reckon with. Even in this thread we are getting more and more cautious about the outcome of this war. The loss of the Donbass seems a distinct possibility, not the end of the war, but important.

5. Apart from that the European view on the political situation in the US is that it's far from stabile and with good reasons. Biden is an old man and his behaviour is that of an old man. His remarks about Zelensky and the US warnings are unlucky to say the least and it's clear he improvises when interviewed. 

 

Edited June 12, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[chrisl]

13 minutes ago, Grigb said:

According to reports small drones like quadcopters are not that useful against artillery - range, time and wind issues. What is needed is a bigger one (akin to airplane not copter) comparable to Orlan. 

The smaller switchblades might be useful against the ammo trucks if they had better range - unfortunately limited to 10 km.  The larger switchblades (up to 50 km) would do it, but it's not clear how many, if any, have actually made it to Ukraine.  Bayraktars would also do it - UA seems to still be getting new deliveries but there are a lot fewer video releases lately.

[Aragorn2002]

7 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

I sincerely wish her to outlive Putin as head of the state.

 

That seems to be the plan. Plus giant blackmail with world food prices.

I just hope Three Amigos going to Kyiv soon will not try to force Zhelensky into some settlement. Right now Western will to supply Ukraine seems to be the weakest link in entire chain that could somehow positively finish the conflict. And Putin was pretty good so far at instinctivly sensing their doubts.

Weakest link? Do you really monitor the efforts Europe is making to keep Ukraine in this war and reinforce NATO's presence in the East of Europe, or are you just shouting things like most people in this thread? Europe is supplying Ukraine in a very impressive way and beyond the limits it can afford.

Putin wasn't 'pretty good' at calculating the reaction in the West. Far from it. He made a big mistake and he knows it.

Scholz and Macron travel to Ukraine to show their support for Ukraine. It's that simple.

We all would like to start Barbarossa 2.0, but we have to stay realistic.

 

Edited June 12, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Calamine Waffles]

42 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Biggest mistake western analyst make regarding Ru artillery is counting number of Russians tubes thinking they produce the same firepower per tube as western ones. It is not the tubes you need to count but round expenditure per gun. Soviet/Russian arty love to exaggerate the firepower by inflating number of tubes while decreasing available rounds per gun for engagement.

They love to say we have ****load of tubes per km of front or we just engaged enemy target with ****load of tubes, go, there is nobody alive there (RU infantry goes, UKR infantry climb out of dugouts and shoots RU infantry to pieces - rinse and repeat until some parts of RU artillery finally zeroes on actual UKR firing points then UKR infantry retreats to the next defensive line). But if you look at actual expenditure per gun the picture is different.

For example, during Goose Green battle UK 3 tubes expended 900 rounds. That is 300 rounds per gun per engagement. Battle was bloody but it was won.

On other hand during the battle for hill 776 the VDV 10 SPGs expended 800-1200 round (depending on the period you take). That is 120 rounds per gun per engagement. The result - two pieces got broken, at least 40% of own troops got hit by friendly arty fire, defense collapsed, and company was overrun and destroyed. 

On paper 3 UK tubes vs 10 RU tubes in support look bad. In reality though...

According to reports small drones like quadcopters are not that useful against artillery - range, time and wind issues. What is needed is a bigger one (akin to airplane not copter) comparable to Orlan. 

Yeah, so Calibre Obscura sort of pointed this out (except re: Ukrainian claims of being outgunned)
 

 

Edited June 12, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[Aragorn2002]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

More CAESAR porn   This one has a nice look at some of the advantages of the targeting system...

 

FRENCH artillery, folks. Killing Russkies. Macron is doing his bit and more, as explained in this movie.

 

Edited June 12, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Aragorn2002]

24 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Yeah, so Calibre Obscura sort of pointed this out (except re: Ukrainian claims of being outgunned)
 

 

If that's true it's a smart move by the Ukrainians. Playing the underdog. Precisely what I would do in order to get more arms from abroad.

[Calamine Waffles]

Alexey Khlopotov (a.k.a. Gur Khan, the Russian tank commentator) says that his blog has now been blocked in the Russian Federation

https://gurkhan.blogspot.com/2022/06/gur-khan-attacks.html

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, chrisl said:

The smaller switchblades might be useful against the ammo trucks if they had better range - unfortunately limited to 10 km.  The larger switchblades (up to 50 km) would do it, but it's not clear how many, if any, have actually made it to Ukraine.  Bayraktars would also do it - UA seems to still be getting new deliveries but there are a lot fewer video releases lately.

Good responses, @Grigb, @Calamine Waffles and others. Being as this is a tactical wargaming site, I'd much rather float and debate (and get schooled in!) this kind of stuff than pages and pages of wailing and gnashing of teeth about ze Germans (or ze Turks).

Re the tube and fire volume exaggerations and so on, that could well all be true to push Western aid panic buttons. But the reality is that UA defenders in static positions are getting the crap pounded out of them by Russian arty right now.  I believe them about the casualty counts.

So top priority, while the UA is building up for whatever big push they have in mind, ought to be to cull that incoming back, a lot, whether using Wunderwaffen or good old CBA, or sabotage of LOCs, or a combo of means.

Just digging in and taking it a la Verdun, while feeding still more kids into the meat grinder should not be the default choice.

....So if Gray Eagles (Predators) are full sized US stealth drones, and they DO have the range and loiter time and 360kg payload (sez Wiki), how's about kitting them out with Switchblades? Figure out areas where Ivan is shooting and scooting, or sending convoys, send out your 'Night Witch' mother ships and dump clusters of smaller drones into the area to hover and hunt?

Edited June 12, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Aragorn2002]

4 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Good responses, @Grigb, @Calamine Waffles and others. Being as this is a tactical wargaming site, I'd much rather float and debate this kind of stuff than pages and pages of wailing and gnashing of teeth about ze Germans (or ze Turks).

Re the tube and fire volume exaggerations and so on, that could well all be true to push Western aid panic buttons. But the reality is that UA defenders in static positions are getting the crap pounded out of them by Russian arty right now.  I believe them about the casualty counts.

So top priority, while the UA is building up for whatever big push they have in mind, ought to be to cull that incoming back, a lot, whether using Wunderwaffen or good old CBA, or sabotage of LOCs, or a combo of means.

Just digging in and taking it a la Verdun, while feeding still more kids into the meat grinder should not be the default choice.

....So if Gray Eagles (Predators) are full sized US stealth drones, and they DO have the range and loiter time and 360kg payload (sez Wiki), how's about kitting them out with Switchblades? Figure out areas where Ivan is shooting and scooting, or sending convoys, send out your 'Night Witch' mother ships and dump clusters of smaller drones into the area to hover and hunt?

The name of this thread is "How hot is the Ukraine gonna get?", so everything concerning the war in Ukraine isn't off topic. For me the combination of tactical, political and strategical posts are more attractive, than just numbers and technicalities. You expressed your preference (more than once), so okay, now we know.

[sawomi]

2 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Biden has said that Zelensky ignored his warnings about the coming invasion of Ukraine by Putin. That statement wasn't well recieved in the Ukraine. Why did Biden say this? And why now? ...

-> 

 

[Huba]

3 hours ago, chrisl said:

Not just luring the artillery, but becoming a sink into which the RA can just keep throwing resources because it's easy to get them there by rail.  So Russia is like a drunk looking for his keys under the streetlight because the light is better there, and UA keeps coming over and making jangly noises, but is going to to find the keys over in the dark where they got dropped and go steal RA's car (or keep destroying BTGs).  It's easy for the RA to keep feeding the attack there, so they do regardless of the futility and it just saps their resources faster.

This has "Verdun" written all over it. Wasn't that good an idea, though almost worked... 

Regarding tube ratios, we know for a fact that UA is being reinforced in very near future. Take the following tweet as a baseline:

First, it got the ammo numbers wrong, I recall two 100K batches from US alone plus some from other allies, should be a total of at least 300K now. What Is not on the list:

- another 6 CAESARS promised at one point

- 8 Zuzana, just handed over

- 18 Krabs ( already in UA) 

- 12 PzH2000 - tbd 22 June. Date rings a bell, doesn't it? Quality trolling right there. 

- undisclosed number of FH70s. Some  from the Baltics (Estonia?) are already in UA but footage of some being transported from Italy surfaced yesterday. Can be a significant number. 

- 64 Belgian M109s that were reportedly bought from the private dealer directly by UA. 

- from 54 new build Krabs ordered, probably at least some will come from PL active units to speed up the process. RUMINT for now. 

Edited June 12, 2022 by Huba

[Aragorn2002]

12 minutes ago, sawomi said:

-> 

 

Interesting theory.

[LongLeftFlank]

26 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

The name of this thread is "How hot is the Ukraine gonna get?", so everything concerning the war in Ukraine isn't off topic. For me the combination of tactical, political and strategical posts are more attractive, than just numbers and technicalities. You expressed your preference (more than once), so okay, now we know.

And your preference is well noted as well. But at this point the facts-free opinionating is starting to drown out the substance.

 

[Ultradave]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

More CAESAR porn   This one has a nice look at some of the advantages of the targeting system...

 

Thanks. This is a good look at how the system works. The ultimate hipshoot weapon. Set up, fire, break down, all in a few minutes. That makes it very survivable from counter battery radar location. Your worry remains just if a drone has tracked you to a position and can get that data to a firing battery fast enough to react before you are gone. Possible, but challenging for the enemy.

Dave

[panzermartin]

15 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Now finally Sumlenny posted something fresh and worth of reading.

Best is Russian Specnaz boarding HMS Victory. Or this one:  "Novorossiya pilot" awakes in a body of Josef Stalin's son Vassily, a war pilot, and wins the war, revealing a Western agent Khrushchov, saving Stalinism".

It's funny, but if you analyze society through its popculture it is really scarry what it can do to collective mentality. Movies like "Stalingrad", "Orda", "1612" were all so bloody, dumb, naive and sadistic that to Western viewers looked like American Pulp Fiction genre. But in retrospect, they were mainstream that builded this damn mythos.

Not to do offtopic- it illustrates that state of collective Russian psyche is one of the reasons why this war may be longer and bloodier than some people in the West suggest, drawing on military situation alone.

Crazy and hilarious stuff but since the 50s we have been reading  comics, Marvel, Captain America, and watching so many other movies with insane plots of Russian, German, Chinese, Arab baddies getting trashed that it's only natural that someone thought to fill the gaps from the opposite side. Even mainstream Top Gun 2 narrates a strike inside a "Pariah state" that kinda resembles Iran, with Su 57s and F14s. With ala Death Star final run heheh. And it's currently a massive box office hit I might add. And let's not forget the first that tossed the idea is siding with Nazi Germany against the "common enemy" was Patton himself

Still, those books are in a very bad taste, but interesting to see the subculture side of Russian propaganda. 

 

 

[LongLeftFlank]

43 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

And let's not forget the first that tossed the idea is siding with Nazi Germany against the "common enemy" was Patton himself

Not quite....

 

Edited June 12, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Beleg85]

4 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Weakest link? Do you really monitor the efforts Europe is making to keep Ukraine in this war and reinforce NATO's presence in the East of Europe, or are you just shouting things like most people in this thread? Europe is supplying Ukraine in a very impressive way and beyond the limits it can afford.

Putin wasn't 'pretty good' at calculating the reaction in the West. Far from it. He made a big mistake and he knows it.

Scholz and Macron travel to Ukraine to show their support for Ukraine. It's that simple.

We all would like to start Barbarossa 2.0, but we have to stay realistic.

People are "shouting" (or rather argumenting) things because it's a widely known fact that Germany, Italy and France leaders are not very willing to stand by Ukraine and need constant pushes from US and partly their own public opinions. It was manifested before and during the war. I know they supply a lot of ammo and money, but in the same time they constantly "take sits next to the door", just in case. Not a week passes without some news about how Scholz blocked some initiative or Macron again talking about "new security order".

This posture is so widely discussed globally and domestically (including their own press) that one really needs to turn a blind eye not see it. And yes, they do a lot os support and you are right about it, for sure. But they are not willing on their own, but dragged there by external pressure. Which is not that surprsing, given how ruled by financial oligarchy they became (GER case) or how much they depend on Russia business (France nad Italy). It was already discussed here 20 times so no reason to reapeat it. Just about this visit- a lot of people, including many senior European politicans and observers, express concerns about it. For example there are debates in France now if Macron shouldn't distance himself from Scholz more and travel alone to Kyiv, to underline independancy in their political goals.

There are of course countries that are surprise. UK is very much leading the way. Also Spain, despite being distant and run by socialist government, seem to be behaving very sharply. But at the end of the day, it always go to this: Europe would be in deep kaka without Americans guiding its hand.

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

Still, those books are in a very bad taste, but interesting to see the subculture side of Russian propaganda. 

Yep, those books are probably just funny. However movies I mentioned before were totally Russia mainstream, not subculture at all. If somebody observed this genre developing over the years- it really raised hairs on the head. We know that a least some of them were watched by Purtin, which probably positivelly confirmed his views and thus influenced global politics in serious way.

 

On other note, I wondered when they start to loot Scythian artifacts and sell them or put in their own museums...https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/12/specialist-gang-targeting-ukrainian-treasures-for-removal-to-russia

Edited June 12, 2022 by Beleg85

[Calamine Waffles]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Good responses, @Grigb, @Calamine Waffles and others. Being as this is a tactical wargaming site, I'd much rather float and debate (and get schooled in!) this kind of stuff than pages and pages of wailing and gnashing of teeth about ze Germans (or ze Turks).

Re the tube and fire volume exaggerations and so on, that could well all be true to push Western aid panic buttons. But the reality is that UA defenders in static positions are getting the crap pounded out of them by Russian arty right now.  I believe them about the casualty counts.

The casualty count is definitely believable, though honestly they admitted about 3,000 dead after the first month, so 10,000 after over 3 months doesn't seem extraordinarily high by the standards of this war. It coincides with Zelensky's figure of 100 dead/day (we are now on day 109).