How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[LongLeftFlank]

45 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

Possible, but as you know withdrawal of UA forces has been 'preannounced' too many times before (e.g. Lyman, Oskil, Volnovakha).

My feeling is that we'll know they really control Sev'sk and the east bank once Lyshansk across the river comes under regular bombardment (the Lyman rule?)

Like OSINTTracker previously who started logging damaged T34 war memorials as kills in April, the indefatigable DefMon is hitting a point where he has to inject a little silliness to stay sane....

Edited May 31, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[LongLeftFlank]

3 hours ago, Machor said:

Sorry to reply to your same post twice, LLF, but we now get to hear this from the horse's mouth, so to speak:

 

A bunch of empty tough talk from a guy whose liver should clearly be added to @sburke's KIA list.

For a country renowned for mathematics and poetry, where chess is a spectator sport, this barfly rant is pretty pathetic really, from end to end.  But I guess that's what I expect from the Urûk Hai general emeritus.....

P.S. Follow the siege train.  Yet another way Ivan telegraphs his punches.

 

Edited May 31, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[G.I. Joe]

Along with Germany ramping up defence spending and Sweden and Finland moving to join NATO, it looks like Putler may have awakened another sleeping giant:

‘China in mind’: Japan mulls beefing up military as Ukraine war rings alarm

[Battlefront.com]

I'm not up on marijuana laws in countries other than the US, but I'm guessing that Russia has some form of legalized recreational cannabis smoking?  It's the only explanation I have for this:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/v167ja/they_cant_fight_a_war_next_door_but_think_they/

 

[sburke]

48 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'm not up on marijuana laws in countries other than the US, but I'm guessing that Russia has some form of legalized recreational cannabis smoking?  It's the only explanation I have for this:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/v167ja/they_cant_fight_a_war_next_door_but_think_they/

 

nah despite what is shown in "reefer madness' pot could never induce this type of hallucination.  I'm thinking a serious heavy mix of LSD, Psilocybin and peyote along with brain surgery to remove some of the logic controlling portions.

Morons couldn't disarm a Yorkshire terrier at this point.

[dan/california]

18 minutes ago, sburke said:

nah despite what is shown in "reefer madness' pot could never induce this type of hallucination.  I'm thinking a serious heavy mix of LSD, Psilocybin and peyote along with brain surgery to remove some of the logic controlling portions.

Morons couldn't disarm a Yorkshire terrier at this point.

Thats not true, they are doing an excellent job of disarming themselves.....

[sburke]

5 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Thats not true, they are doing an excellent job of disarming themselves.....

and simultaneously they are making great strides at improving morale!

Russia Holding Hostage Relatives of Troops Who Disobey Orders: Report (msn.com)

[LongLeftFlank]

9 hours ago, Kinophile said:

@Vanir Ausf B

"Look! We're firing our guns, therefore we are winning!"

Thats some Kadyrovite level copium right there.

...

Speaking of over-equipped fashionistas, I read recently Kadyroviskis were "leading" the fight into Sieverodonetsk. I'm truly curious of their actual combat ability if forced into a real battler; by which I mean, in a slow siege like Marioupol, there's plenty of down time. But Sieverodonetsk is extremely dangerous right now, which is very much not the K's vibe, yet the Russian push to the front is relentless and I doubt even the Chechens can get away with fobbing off.

So if push really does come to shove, can these camouflaged 'grammers actually fight?

Kadyrov's Praetorian gangstas have far more important things to do for Putin than fight Ukrainians....

 

 

[FancyCat]

Crimea has been a important strongpoint and launchpoint for Russian attacks on Ukraine since 2014, should Russia retain the ability to hold and station military forces in Crimea, that will always be able to threaten the south of Ukraine and threaten the Black Sea coast of Ukraine and the global food market. (Imagine a Russian blockade of Odessa but this time no poorly planned full scale invasion, imagine the suffering and difficult decisions for Ukraine)

What's the distance from Crimea to Melitopol or Kherson? Can their anti air defenses create difficulty for Ukraine to retake those cities?

Ukraine may need to target Crimea to effectively retake and defend southern Ukraine anyhow.

But allowing Crimea to stay Russian gives Russia a very potent lever for future conflict with Ukraine. (Yes, yes Russian military has degraded significantly but still, Russia does not need to reinvade Ukraine to blockade Odessa)

[sburke]

Regarding the UK report on Russia casualties, this is our current list. 

Russia has suffered 'devastating losses' of junior officers, harming its ability to fight, claims UK intel (msn.com)

I found a list from March 20 that included lower-level officers and added

 

MG Andrey Kolesnikov, Russia’s 29th Combined Arms Army commander
Andrei Sukhovetsky, Deputy Commander of the 41st Combined Arms Army
Major General Vitaly Gerasimov, First Deputy Commander Of The 41st Army
Major-general Oleg Mitiayev, commander of 150th motor-rifle division
General-Lieutenant Andrey Mordvichev commander 8th CAA 
Major-General Tushaev (Chechen)
LTG Yakov Rezantsev, Russia’s 49th CAA commander, in Chornobaivka near Kherson.
MG Vladimir Frolov, deputy commander of 8th Guard CAA, Southern military district
Major General Simonov Deputy chief of Electronic Warfare Troops of Armed Forces of Russian Federation

 

Guards Colonel Konstantin Zizevsky commander of the 247th Guards Air Assault Regiment 
Colonel Viktor Ivanovich Isaikin (killed Mar 2)
Colonel Konstantin Ogiy, Head of Kemerovo SOBR unit, Rosgvardiya (killed Feb 28)
Colonel Sergey Karasev, Commander, 31st Guards Air Assault Brigade (Ulyanovsk) (Killed Mar 11)
Colonel Andrei Zakharov, Battalion-tactical group Commander, 6th Tank Regiment (Chebarkul) , 90th Tank division (killed Mar 10) (given Order of Courage in 2016)
Colonel Sergey Sukharev, commander of 331st Guards Airborne Regiment (of the 98th VDV Division)
Colonel? Denis Shishov, the commander of the 11th Air Assault Brigade
Colonel Yuryi Agarkov, the commander of 33rd motor-rifle regiment (Kamyshyn, Volgograd oblast) of 20th Guard motor-rifle division
Colonel Alexander Vladimirovich Zakharov, 6th tank regiment commander
Colonel Igor Nikolaev Commander of 252nd Motor Rifle Regiment, the 3rd Motor Rifle Division.
Colonel Alexei Sharov, commander of the 810th Marine Brigade
Colonel Sergey Savvateeyev, Deputy commander of Rosgvardia SOBR
Col. Denis Kurilo commander of the 200th infantry brigade (detachment #08275, Pechenga city)
Colonel Alexander Bespalov, commander of 59th Tank Regiment, 144th Motor Rifle Division Lublin twice Red Banner, the Order of Suvorov and Kutuzov Regiment
Colonel Ivan Grishin, the commander of Russia's 49th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade (1st Tank Army)
Colonel Mikhail Nagamov, commander of 6th engineer-sapper regiment of 1st Guard tank army of Western military district.
Colonel Sergei Porokhnya commander of the 12th separate guards engineering brigade
Col. Denis Kozlov 12th Guards Engineering Brigade’s (Central Military District) commander This is the second loss of a commander for the Brigade
Colonel Nikolay Ovcharenko  commander of the 45th Engineer-Sapper Regiment a part of the 1st Guards Tank Army
Col. Eduard Pelishenko Acting commander of DNR 1st Army Corps  seriously wounded
Colonel Vladimir Ivanov, unit unknown
Col. Evgeny Gerasimenko,Rosgvardiya spetsnaz. He served in 12th sep.special force detachment "Ural" (Nizhniy Tagil). But he got lost early of 8th of April.
Col. Alexei Smirnov, Chief of Communications for 98th Guards Airborne Division
Col. Vladimir Ivanov was a press officer for the MoD.

Lieutenant Colonel Yuri Agarkov, Commander, 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment. (killed Mar
Lieutenant Colonel Okruzhnov Alexander Nikolaevich, Head of Artillery, 104th VDV Regiment, 76th Airborne Division (killed Mar 7)
Lieutenant Colonel Renat Ravilovich Gaisin
Lieutenant Colonel Denis Glebov, Deputy Commander of the 11th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade (killed Mar 5, given Order of Courage)
Lieutenant Colonel Vitaly Slabtsov The Deputy Commander of the VDV's 83rd Air Assault Brigade
Lieutenant Colonel Dmitry Sofronov, Commander of the 61st Separate Marine Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces, (killed Mar 5)
Lt Colonel Mikhail Orchikov was deputy commander of a motor-rifle brigade 19th motor-rifle division
Lieutenant Colonel Sergey Savvateev, Deputy Commander, SOBR unit (Vladimir), Rosgvardiya
Lt.colonel Ilya Piatkin, 38 years  SOBR
Lt.colonel Roman Ryabov, 50 years  SOBR
Lt.colonel (likely) Mikhail Rodionov, 46 years   SOBR
lt.colonel, Ruslan Gashiyatullin, but only motor-rifle battalion commander. Odd.
According to Russian media, he lived in Dagestan, so probably he is from 136th Guard motor-rifle brigade of 58th CAA.
lt.colonel Igor Zharov a VDV officer and RVVDKU graduate, was killed in Ukraine. He was the chief of staff for a regiment
lt.colonel Alexandr Okruzhnov, artillery chief of 104th Guard air-assault regiment of 76th Guard air-assault divosion
Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Kornik, head of the HQ for 40th Engineer-Sapper Regiment (but I can’t find a reference to this unit, so I wonder if it was actually 45th Engineer-Sapper Regiment
Lt.colonel Dmitriy Dormidontov, MLRS battalion commander 20 of March Ukrainian mortar shell directly hit Russian blindage. Three officers were killed
    - battalion commander (probably motor-rifle, so mayor or lt.colonel too)
    - forward air-controller (usually lt. or captain)
Lieutenant Colonel Georgy Petrunin, the military commandant of Samara
Lt.colonel Dinar Khametov, MLRS battalion commander of 200th motor-rifle brigade of 14th Army Corps of Joint Strategical Command "Northern Fleet".
Lt.colonel Dibir Dibirov, 291st motor-rifle regiment of 42nd MRD, 58th CAA
Lt.colonel Viacheslav Savinov, deputy chief of the staff, chief of artillery recon of 49th CAA 
Lt.colonel Miras Bashakov, commander of 133th separate guard tank battalion of 138th separate guard motor-rifle brigade
Lt.colonel Denis Mezuyev, commander of 1st Guard motor-rifle regiment of 2nd Guard "Tamanskaya" MRD.
Lt. Col. Aleksey Kryukov, possibly FSB Special Purpose Center Alfa group FSB 
Lt.colonel Eduard Dmitriev, senior officer of combat training department of 2nd guard CAA, Central military district, killed 24th of April.
Lt.Colonel Grigoriy Tarasenko.
Interesting person. He already participated in the war on Donbas during 2016-2019 probably as a shadow comamnder and even was wounded in 2019. Then participated in Syria operation. 
Lt.colonel Alexandr Blinov, senior officer of combat training of 150th motor-rifle division, Novoherkassk, Rostov oblast, 8th CAA
Lt. Col. Albert Karimov, GRU Spetsnaz
Captain 2nd Rank (Lt. Col. equivalent) Alexander Bobrov, commander 170th Minesweeper Division, 184th Water Area Protection Brigade (Novorossiysk).
"Lt.colonel" (LPR-promoted) Roman Medvedev, artillery chief of 4th motor-rifle brigade of LPR.
Lt.colonel Dmitriy Golosenko, 1st GTR of 2nd GMRD - MIA
Lt. Col. Denis Sukhanov, artillery officer for unknown unit
Lt. Col. Valentin Kuzmin, HQ staff of 2nd Guards Motorized Rifle Division
Lt. Col. Sergey Nikitin, 74th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade
Lt. Col. Alexander Dosyagaev, commander 2nd Airborne Battalion, 104th Guards Airborne Regiment, 76th Guards Air-Assault Division

Lieutenant Colonel Fezul Bichikaev from Vladikavkaz was the deputy commander of a regiment in Yekaterinburg, possibly the 288th MRR

Major Ruslan Leonov, Spetsnaz company commander (killed Mar 10)
Major Alexei Ilnitsky, deputy battalion commander, VDV 11th Air Assault Brigade (Ulan-Ude) (killed, given Order of Courage)  
Guards Major Andrei Petrovich Burlakov, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Russian Secret Service, Chief of Intelligence of Regiment, Rosgvardia (killed Mar 10)
Major Bezborodov Dmitry Valeryevich, Rosgvardiya battalion commander (killed)
Major Vorsyuchenko Alexey Vasilyevich, VDV Unit #81430 HQ, 76th Airborne SAM Regiment (killed)
Major Dmity Bezborodov Bezzhizninski, Operational Battalion Commander, Rosgvardia (killed)
Major Sergey Vladimirovich Kashansky, GRU/GU 24th SpetsNaz Brigade? (killed)
Major Dmitry Bukatin, 336th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade (Baltiysk, Kaliningrad) (killed)
Major Patskalev Oleg Mikhailovich, Deputy Commander, 2nd Battalion, 331st VDV Guards Airborne Regiment (Kostroma), 98th Guards Airborne Division (killed)
Major Alexander Viktorovich Shchetkin, Deputy Commander for Military-Political Work, 1st Guards Motor Rifle Regiment (Sevastopol), 2nd Guards Tamanians Motor Rifle Division (killed)
Major Ratmir Kudayev (Police) (killed, given Order of Courage)
Major Sergei Krylov, Deputy Commander, 331st VDV Guards Airborne Regiment (Kostroma), 98th Airborne Division (killed Mar 17)
Major Alexey Osokin, the commander of the VDV's 31st Air Assault Brigade's 1st battalion
Major Oleg Patskalev, deputy battalion commander, 331st Guards Airborne Regiment, 98th Guards Airborne Division.
Mayor Denis Yagidarov, commander of airborne battlion of 31st separate air-assault brigade
Major Ruslan Vladimirovich Petrukhin, deputy battalion commander in the 38th Motorized Rifle Brigade, 35th Army, Eastern Military District (killed Mar 11)
Major Dmitry Toptun motorized rifle battalion commander 488th Motor Rifle Regiment, 144th Guards Motor Rifle Division
Major Viktor Maksimchuk possible deputy commander of a motorized rifle regiment or battalion commander
Major Alexandr Lyubanov. VDV.
Marine Major Alexey Sukhanov 177th Naval Infantry Regiment
Major Azamat Alinov, company commander in 3rd Spetsnaz Brigade 
Major Livoskiy Deputy Commander of 35th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade’s rocket artillery battalion
Major Sergei Panov was reportedly the tank battalion commander in the 21st Motorized Rifle Brigade (other sources say 90th GTD)
Major Alexander Sergeevich Fedorov, Chief of Communications and Deputy Chief of Staff of Unit #47130, 103rd Rocket Brigade (Ulan-Ude, Divizionnaya station) (killed Mar 15)met with our SOF...
Major Ruslan Petrukhin, a graduate of the Kazan Higher Military Command School and a deputy battalion commander in the 38th Motorized Rifle Brigade, was killed in Ukraine.
Maj. Pavel Suslov, Tyumen is his city. 40th engineer-sapper regiment, Ishym town of Tiumen oblast
Mayor Dmitriy Tiunin, commander (?) of engineer-sapper battalion of 136th guard motor-rifle brigade, 58th guard CAA
Captain Timur Suleymanov acting commander for 228th motor-rifle regiment?
Major Dmitriy Stakheev
Mayor Yegor Sannikov. No other info. Probably artillery officer.
Mayor Alexey Martiushev
Mayor Denis Golovko, deputy commander of 2nd motor-rifle battalion of 71st guard motor-rifle regiment, 42nd guard motor-rifle division, 58th guard CAA
Mayor Sergey Kashanskiy, 19th separate special force detachment "Yermak" (Novosibirsk) of Rosgvardia, Syberian military district of Rosgvardia
Mayor Sergey Reznichenko, chief of the staff of some supply battalion.
Mayor Pavel Gareyev, unit and data of death unknown. Judging by the signs on lapels he served in air defense unit and his rank is AD battalion command/staff duty.
Mayor (?) Pavel Yevgkevskyi. Commander of 4th battalion of 105th rifle regiment of DPR's 1st Army Corps
Major Artyom Lazarenko was the operations officer for the 439th Rocket Artillery Brigade
Major Alexey Dineka, 247th Air Assault Regiment, 7th Air Assault Division
Mayor Alexey Varnavskiy. Data of death and unit unknown. He has signs of signal troops on lapels. His rank corresponds to HQ of divisional level signal unit.
Major Yury Belitchenko, Flight Commander in 55th Separate Helicopter Regiment, SMD
Mayor Nikolay Kolesnikov, unit unknown, signs on the shoulder strips similar to ground forces (except tank trops)
Mayor Vasiliy Tynnyi, deputy of company comamnder of Spetsnaz. unit unknown
Mayor Grigoriy Artemyev, officer of military commandant unit.
Mayor Andrey Kunakov, chief of the staff, 153rd separate SOF detachment of 346th separate SOF brigade, Special Operations Command.
Mayor Azamat Alimov, company commander of 3rd Special forces brigade
Mayor of reserve Valeryi Statilko.
Reserve Maj. Valery Farshatov, volunteer for LNR
Mayor Sergey Kotelnikov, killed 7th of May, unit unknown
Maj. Dmitry Vostrikov, deputy commander of 810th Naval Infantry Brigade’s air-assault battalion
Major Galiev Artyom Radikovich, KIA
Mayor Sergey Borisenko, 106th guard airborne division
Maj. Ivan Zaika, possibly from 41st CAA headquarters or some subordinate unit
Mayor Ramis Zagretdinov, motor-rifle battalion commader of 35th guard motor-rifle brigade, 41st CAA
Mayor Leonid Sharshukov, unit unknown, likely engineer. Died in hospital on 9th of May
Mayor Viacheslav Karenko, due to anchor signs he served in Black Sea Fleet, but in some coastal unit. He had Ukrainian citizenship, served in Ukrainian naval forces and betrayed in 2014.
Retired (?) mayor (?) Ivan Kravchenko. Battalion commander. He has a chevron of GRU, but also has a sign of Donbas Volunteer Union, so currently he was not officer of Russian regular troops. Either DPR battalion commander (regular or conscripts), or Russian volunteers battalion commander. 
mayor Alexandr Shchetkin, 1st GTR of 2nd GMRD
mayor Dmitriy Lytnyev, 423rd GMRR of 4th GTD
mayor Ilgiz Usmanov, 423rd GMRR of 4th GTD
mayor Maxim Khlebko, 7th separate recon battalion of 47th GTD
Major Dmitry Lytnev, 4th Guards Tank Division
Major Gregory Artemiev, head of military commandant’s office in Volsk, Saratov Oblast.
Maj. Roman Sarychev, military commandant
Maj. Anton Morozov, air-assault company commander, 542nd Separate Air-Assault Battalion
Mayor Anatoliy Miagkov, last meantion of his service - 12th separate special force detachment "Ural" of Rosgvardia, Ural district of Rosgvardia
Maj. Sergei Borisenko, 106th Airborne Division
Maj. Valentin Ivanov, unit unknown
Major Yuri Melekhin, commander 1st Spetsnaz Detachment of the 16th Separate Spetsnaz Brigade
Maj. Ivan Budkin, chief of staff of 2nd Airborne Battalion, 234th Airborne Regiment, 76th Air-Assault Division
Maj. Alexander Denisov deputy of battalion commander of 137th guard airborne regiment of 106th guard airborne division
Reserve Maj. Denis Sorokin
Mayor Nikolay Kolomoyets, 61st Naval infantry brigade, 14th Army Corps of Norhern Fleet coastal units
Major Roman Khlynovsky, engineering officer (probably) in the 64th Guards Separate Motor Rifle Brigade

Captain Andrey Paliy
Capt. Fakhretin Gasanov, commander 1st MRB, 394th MRR, 127th MRD
Captain Maklagin Vyacheslav Vyacheslavovich (killed Feb 25, given Order of Courage)
Captain Aleksey Aleksandrovich Chuchmanov, GRU/GU 3rd SpetsNaz Brigade (Tolyatti) (killed Mar 3, 2022)
Captain Yevgeny Ivanov, platoon commander, Russian 247th Guards Assault Caucasian Cossack Regiment (killed)
Captain Sergei Aleksandrovich Visyach (killed)
Captain Alexey Glushchak, GRU/GU 22nd Spetsnaz Brigade (killed, given Order of Courage)
Captain Ilya Kuptsov, VDV 76th Air Assault Division, Intelligence Department (Pskov) (killed)
Captain Alexander Vladimirovich Shokun, Chief of Communications, VDV 11th Guards Air Assault Brigade (Ulan-Ude) (killed)
Captain Nikitin Alexey Nikolaevich, 1141st Guards Artillery Regiment, 7th VDV Guards Mountain Air Assault Division (Novorossiysk) (killed)
Captain Eduard Gilmiyarov Rinatovich, Commander, 5th Airborne Assault Company, 31st VDV Separate Guards Airborne Assault Brigade (Ulyanovsk) (killed)
Police Captain Opatsky Alexei Mikhailovich, Commander, Zyryanin OMON Special Purpose Mobile Platoon, Rosgvardia Directorate, Komi Republic (killed)
Captain Dmitry Nikolayevich Chumanov, Commander, MLRS Battery (Ulan-Ude) (killed Mar 4)

Senior Lieutenant Alexei Aleshko, Military Intelligence Officer (killed Mar 10)
Senior Lieutenant Andrei Shamko, VDV, GRU/GU 2nd Spetsnaz Brigade (Pskov) (killed)
Senior Lieutenant Nurmagomed Gadzhimagomedov, company commander, 247th Guards Air Assault Regiment (killed, given Hero of Russia)
Senior Lieutenant Nikolai Shumitsky, Tank Company Commander, 81st Tank Battalion, 42nd Motorized Rifle Division (killed, given Order of Courage)
Senior Lieutenant Sergey Dorokhov, Rosgvardia SOBR team member (Vologda) (killed)
Senior Lieutenant Aleksey Aleshko, Platoon Commander, VDV, RVVDKU graduate. (killed Feb 25, given Order of Courage)
Senior Lieutenant Nikita Ivanovich Perfilov, VKS Russian Aerospace Forces (killed Mar 6)
Senior Lieutenant Lazarenko Alexander Alexandrovich (killed, given Order of Courage)
Senior Lieutenant Nikolai Symov, 331st VDV Airborne Regiment (Kostroma), 98th Airborne Division (killed)
Senior Lieutenant Sukhovskoy Semyon Mikhailovich, Company Commander, 234th Air Assault Regiment, VDV 76th Guards Air Assault Division (killed Mar 5)
Senior Lieutenant Sergei Zuykov Alekseevich, Rosgvardia (killed, given Order of Courage)
Senior Lieutenant Sergey Alekseevich Zuykov (killed, given Order of Courage)
Senior Lieutenant Vokhmyanin Alexander Viktorovich, Chief of Staff, Artillery Battalion (killed)
Senior Lieutenant Maxim Vadimovich Susloparov, Unit #90600, 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Peacekeeping Brigade of Alexandria (Roshchinsky), 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army (killed)
Senior Lieutenant Maxim Kholkin, Air Defense, 4th Military Base (South Ossetia) (killed March 7, given Order of Courage)
Senior Lieutenant Anton Volkov, Translator, GRU/GU, (killed Feb 27)
Senior Lieutenant Sergei Chudnik, Commander, Tank Platoon (killed March 16, given Hero of DPR)
Senior Lieutenant Dmitry Vyacheslavovich Vdovin, Company Commander (killed, given Order of Courage)
Senior Lieutenant Ilya Sergeevich Chernyshev, Commander, Armored Battery, 331st Guards Airborne Regiment (Kostroma), 98th VDV Guards Airborne Division (killed, given Order of Courage)
Senior Lieutenant Nikita Samoilov, Deputy Commander, VDV Reconnaissance Company (killed)
Senior Lieutenant Alexei Ivanov, 5th Separate Guards Tank Brigade (Ulan-Ude) (killed)

Lieutenant Alexander Osipov, VDV (killed)
Lieutenant Georgy Alexandrovich Dudorov, Deputy Commander, Military-Political Affairs, Recon company, 137th Airborne Regiment, 106th VDV Airborne Division (Tula) (killed March 6)
Lieutenant Alexander Lebedev (killed)
Lieutenant Vitaly Olegovich Golub , Platoon Commander, 20th Guards Motorized Rifle Division, 8th Guards Combined Arms Army (Volgograd) (killed, given Order of Courage)
Lieutenant Dmitry Chernyshev, VDV 247th Air Assault Regiment (killed, given Order of Courage)
Lieutenant Daniil Dmitreievich Kurin, Reconnaissance Platoon Commander, 34th Mountain Motorized Rifle Brigade (killed, March 3)
Lieutenant Georgy Dudorov, Deputy Commander, Reconnaissance Company, 137th VDV Airborne Regiment, 106th Guards Airborne Division (Tula), son of Alexander Durorov, the Deputy Governor of Nenets Autonomous Okrug (killed Mar 6)
Lieutenant Ovchinnikov Lev Aleksandrovich, VDV 331st Airborne Regiment (Kostroma) (killed)
Lieutenant Vsevolod Vasilyevich Yaroslavtsev, Commander, Mortar Platoon, Motorized Rifle Battalion, 126th Gorlovskaya Separate Coastal Defense Brigade (Perevalnoe), 22nd Army Corps. (killed Mar 3)
Lieutenant Stanislav Olegovich Kutelev, VDV, RVVDKU graduate (killed)
Lieutenant Brian Andrei Yurkov, Ground Forces Air Defense Officer (North Ossetia) (killed)

Naval-
Captain of 3rd rank (=mayor) Alexandr Chirva, commander of large landing ship "Tsezar Kunnikov" of 197th landing ship brigade, Black Sea Fleet. Died from wounds 16-17th of April. He was wounded during Uлrainan strike on Russians landing ships in Berdiansk on 24th of March
Captain of 1st rank (=colonel) Andrei Paliy Deputy of Black Sea Fleet commander
Captain of 3rd rank (mayor equivalent) Roman Pasynkov, chief of troops service department of Black Sea HQ 810th Naval Infantry Brigade

Aviation -
Mayor Yevgeniy Osipov, 18th Guard assault aviation regiment "Normandia-Neman" (Su-25SM)
Mayor Artyom Ogoltsov, 332nd Guard helicopter regiment (airfields Pushkin, Pribilovo, Leningrad oblast) of 6th AF and AD Army, Western militrary district. This regiment is armed with Mi-28N, Mi-35 and Mi-8AMTSh. Google search shows, during maneuvers Zapad-2021 he was a pilot of Mi-28N.
Colonel Ruslan Rudnev was a Su-25 attack aircraft pilot based in the Far East. He was killed in Ukraine and buried on March 1
Lieutenant Colonel Alexey Narzullaevich Khasanov, Deputy Commander, 31st Guards Fighter Aviation Regiment (pilot, Su-30SM, killed Mar 5)
Lt.colonel Fyodor Solovyov, commander of 872nd SP-howitzer regiment of 127th motor-rifle division, 5th CAA Eastern Military District
Major General (*ret.) Banamat Botashev Russian Air Force 
Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Pozynych, Deputy Commander for Military-Political Work, 14th Guards Fighter Regiment (Kursk) (Pilot, Su-30SM, killed)
Lieutenant Colonel Oleg Chervov, Deputy Commander, Aviation Regiment (Voronezh) (Pilot, Su-25, killed Mar 7)
Captain Ivan Sergeevich Afanasyev (Pilot, Ka-52?, killed)
Captain Radzhabov Rabazan Gasainievich (Pilot, killed)
Captain Emelyanchik Sergei Stanislavovich (Pilot, Mi-28n?, killed Mar 4)
Captain Eugene Kislakov, 14th Guards Fighter Regiment (Kursk) (Pilot, Su-30SM, killed)

Separatist Forces -
separatist commander Mikhail Kyshchyk, better known as "Misha Chechen,"
Colonel (DPR-promoted? Or posthumously?) Statsenko Alexey, deputy commander of armament of 1st motor-rifle brigade of DPR. 
"Mayor" (LPR-promoted) Alexzndr Shepel, battalion commander of 2nd motor-rifle brigade LPR. Citizen of Ukraine. Considered as "best battalion comamnder of LPR". Killed 6th of March
"Captain" or even "mayor" (DPR-promoted) Agranovich Sergey, company commander of recon-assault battalion "Sparta" of DPR.
"Colonel" (DPR promoted) Vladimir Kovalenko, chief of "non-departamental security of Internal affairs ministry of DPR" (prisoners guarding service). Citizen of Ukraine. Former officer of Ukrainian 20th separate convoy service battalion of Internal troops (later National Guard), dislocated in Donetsk. After his unit was seized in 2014 by DPR he defected to separs side.
Reserve Lt. Col. Alexander Kalnitsky, presumably with a Cossack volunteer unit from Krasnodar Krai
LNR Police Lt. Col. Denis Babich
Vladimir Zhoga, warlord, Sparta Battalion (Lt Col equivalent?) (killed Mar 5)
Separatist Taras "Clooney" Gordienko, Commander, B-2 Anti-tank group (killed Mar 14)

WIA
Major General Serhiy Nirkov was seriously wounded; Chief of Staff - Deputy Commander of the 35th Combined Arns Army
Major General Andriy Serytsky Chief of Staff - Deputy Commander of the 36th Combined Arms Army was seriously wounded;
First Rank Captain Anton Kuprin, 44, lead Russian warship was fatally hit by Ukrainian Neptune missiles
Col. Yan Sukhanov, acting commander 810th Guards Separate Naval Infantry Brigade - heavily wounded (commander Col. Aleksey Sharov was killed in Mariupol on Mar. 22nd)clancy
Lt. Col. Aleksey Teremkov, commander 542nd Separate Air-Assault Battalion - heavily wounded
Maj. Leonid Smirnoff, acting commander 382nd Separate Naval Infantry Battalion - heavily wounded

Captured
Lieutenant Colonel Krishtop Maxim Sergeevich Deputy Commander of the 47th Aviation Regiment 

   I have two listings which may both be Krishtop.
   Lieutenant Colonel Krishtop Maxim Sergeevich, (Pilot , Su-30, captured)
   Lieutenant Colonel, 247th Guards Air Assault Regiment 47th Bomber Aviation Regiment, 105th    Guards Mixed Aviation Division (Pilot, Su-34, captured)

Lt. Colonel Astrakhov Dmitry Mikhailovich:from SOBR
Lt.colonel Alexandr Koshel Claimed he is the chief of PsyOps counteraction group of 58th CAA His documents says he is mayor, serving in m/u 21250 - 212th Training center of tank troops (Siberian Military district). He can be promoted to lt.colonel and appointed lately on the duty of PsyOps in 58th CAA and hadn't time to change own military ID.  
lt.colonel Sergei Kosik, 14th Fighter aviation regiment 
Lieutenant Colonel Anikin head of artillery of the 59th regiment
Captain Denisov the head of communications of the 59th regiment
Major Sergey Yermalov, 159th Fighter Aviation Regiment, Besovets airfield, Karelia, 105th Mixed Aviation Division, 6th AF and AD Army, Western Military District
lt.colonel Yevgeniy Starodubov, 1st GTR of 2nd GMRD
mayor Ilshat Gazimov, 27th GMRB
mayor Yuriy Grechko, 96th separate recon brigade
Major Schetkin Leonid Petrovich, Commander and chief of staff, 35th Motorized Rifle Brigade, 41st Combined Arms Army (captured Feb 26)
Major Rashki Shishkanov Dmitry Alexandrovich, Battalion Deputy Commander, 126th Gorlovskaya Separate Coastal Defense Brigade (Perevalnoe), Unit #12676, 22nd Army Corps, Black Sea Fleet (captured)

Sacked
General Roman Gavrilov of Rosgvardia
General Vladislav Ershov, commander of 6th Army
Lieutenant General Sergei Kissel, commander 1st Guards Tank Army
Anatoly Bolyukh Deputy to FSB head Col Gen Sergei Beseda  
150 FSB agents purged
Lt. Gen. Arkadiy Marzoev as a commander of the 22nd Army Corps

Arrested
Admiral Igor Osipov commander of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Armed Forces arrested
Col Gen Sergei Beseda, head of the foreign intelligence branch of the FSB, the Fifth Service   Beseda has been sent to Lefortovo prison in Moscow

Fragging incidents - okay maybe just a rumor but a fun one!
37th Guards Separate Motor Rifle Brigade commander Col. Yuri Medvedev hospitalized in Belarus after being intentionally run over by one of his own soldiers

Suicide
commander of the 13th Tank Regiment of the 4th Tank Division 

Others
Col Vladimir Kryvolapov replacement commander of the 810th Marine Brigade only a Sgt?

Oligarchs

These two and there was another one in Surrey, England, age 58, who supposedly hanged himself 2 weeks ago in his $18 million custom mansion. Mikhail Watford was worth tens of billions and told his neighbor last year that he was on Putin's list.

Spanish news website El Punt Avui reported the bodies of Sergey Protosenya, 55, his wife and his daughter were found at around 4 p.m. on Tuesday, April 19 at their home in the seaside resort of Lloret de Mar in Spain's Catalonia region.

Former Kremlin official and Gazprombank vice-president Vladislav Avayev, 51, was found dead in his luxury Moscow apartment by his 26-year-old daughter on Monday, police said. The bodies of his wife Yelena, 47, and younger daughter Maria, 13, were also discovered. All had suffered gunshot wounds.

Alexander Subbotin has reportedly died after an anti-hangover treatment that involved toad poison

Edited May 31, 2022 by sburke

[LongLeftFlank]

24 minutes ago, sburke said:

These two and there was another one in Surrey, England, age 58, who supposedly hanged himself 2 weeks ago in his $18 million custom mansion. Mikhail Watford was worth tens of billions and told his neighbor last year that he was on Putin's list.

Spanish news website El Punt Avui reported the bodies of Sergey Protosenya, 55, his wife and his daughter were found at around 4 p.m. on Tuesday, April 19 at their home in the seaside resort of Lloret de Mar in Spain's Catalonia region.

Former Kremlin official and Gazprombank vice-president Vladislav Avayev, 51, was found dead in his luxury Moscow apartment by his 26-year-old daughter on Monday, police said. The bodies of his wife Yelena, 47, and younger daughter Maria, 13, were also discovered. All had suffered gunshot wounds.

Alexander Subbotin has reportedly died after an anti-hangover treatment that involved toad poison

Graham Chapman's 'British Ambassador to Moscow' skit from the famous 'Cycling Tour' episode has been 'canceled' as culturally insensitive, but there is a classic line:

He have heart attack and fall out of window on top of exploding bomb.

[sburke]

another problem for the incredible shrinking rouble

Russian Soldiers Refuse to Fight Due to Shrinking Paychecks: Report (msn.com)

Some Russian soldiers who fought in Ukraine are refusing to return and fight due to lower paychecks, according to a report from the Russian news outlet Caucasus.Realities.

Members of the Russian Guard from Krasnodar, a city in Russia, have filed reports refusing to be sent back to Ukraine. According to a source from the Federal Troops of the National Guard, several of the soldiers cited dissatisfaction with the amount they were paid during their time in Ukraine from February to April as the reason for refusing to fight, Caucasus.Realities reported.

The source explained in the report that part of the reason paychecks were shrinking was due to the growing exchange rate of the ruble, Russia's currency.

"Just the other day, a payment for the second month of being there came. And if for the first month they paid 100 thousand, now it's 50. The command explained this by the fall in the dollar exchange rate—the payment is calculated from about 50 dollars per day of stay, but is made in rubles at the Russian exchange rate," the source said.

The report summarized that if the dollar rate in Russia on March 10 was 120 rubles, it was 56 rubles by May 26, hence why payments from the military had changed.

Despite the international economic sanctions against Russia that have slowed economic growth even more than countries predicted, the ruble's value has grown significantly, jumping nearly 150 percent since it initially collapsed right after the invasion began, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Decreasing soldiers' paychecks does little to help with the current issue of low morale and mistreatment within the Russian military. While paychecks shrink, soldiers have been asked to pay for weapons and supplies with their own money.

The Russian military has reportedly taken to promising significant signing bonuses to those who sign short-term military contracts. A military official in the North Caucasus republic of Chechnya was recently offered a first-month salary of 300,000 rubles ($5,200) during a recruitment attempt, according to The Moscow Times.

Still, Russian troops are facing significant losses coming from inside their own factions. Russian military officers are reportedly refusing to follow orders, and some troops have reportedly sabotaged their own vehicles to avoid going to the frontlines. Contracted soldiers have been threatened with criminal charges should they attempt to quit, though Newsweek could not independently verify these claims.

[G.I. Joe]

18 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Ukrainian Mig-29 using its afterburner.

Great video. I've always had a soft spot for the MiG-29 and a big part of it goes back to when I was eleven, and was lucky enough to see the Ukrainian Air Force Freedom Tour two-ship MiG-29 demo team at the 1992 Abbotsford Airshow.

[Butschi]

8 hours ago, The_Capt said:

As to #1 and #2 - Ukraine has every right to re-take Crimea as it was essentially stolen illegally - UN and most the west agree.  Should they, is trickier.  I would hope that if the Russia front collapses to the point that the UA can seriously look at a Crimean offensive that we are regime change territory because I would be nervous as to what Putin might do out of desperation.  If Russia sees Crimea as part of the motherland then it could escalate things dramatically as this would be akin to an operational offensive into Russia itself.  Of course if the Russian military and political have collapsed then have at it.

And the there is the reaction from the West.  We are pretty united right now and doubling down our bets, I am not sure what a deeper offensive by Ukraine into Crimea would do to that.  Before warcrimes I would have said “doubtful” but a lot of water has gone under the bridge in the last 3 months.  So would a Crimean offensive make the alliance nervous? Likely “yes”, but how nervous.

And while it may be possible for Putin to just call a cease fire and withdraw from most of the occupied terrority behind pre-2/24 borders and somehow spin this as "We managed to severely reduce the Nazi-infestation to a degree they pose no more danger for us. There are still things to do but they are not worth more Russian blood, blah blah" there is no way he can spin losing Crimea into a victory. He would be more or less forced to escalate in some way.

Your point about the reaction of the West may be even more important. There is a large Russian (speaking) population on Crimea. What will happen when we start seeing the inevitable warcrimes commited by a Ukrainian Army that meets a Russian part of the population? I say inevitable not because I think the Ukrainians are bad people but because that is what happens in war - probably not on a systematic level like we have seen on the Russian side but e.g. in WW2 even the Brits who were quite strict on that matter did it. Even if the UA manages to "stay clean", the FSB will gladly lend a helping hand. Same goes for the Donbass, I guess. And seeing something even remotely Butcha-like on mainstream TV is a pretty sure way to quickly evaporate the Western willingness to further support Ukraine, I fear.

EDIT: And I think because of the narrative, that Ukraine is not only defending itself but the whole West and its values, a war of good vs evil, etc., Ukraine will be held to much higher standards than Russia.

Edited May 31, 2022 by Butschi

[Calamine Waffles]

1 hour ago, G.I. Joe said:

Great video. I've always had a soft spot for the MiG-29 and a big part of it goes back to when I was eleven, and was lucky enough to see the Ukrainian Air Force Freedom Tour two-ship MiG-29 demo team at the 1992 Abbotsford Airshow.

Notably, it is a MiG-29UB trainer.

[Calamine Waffles]

SBU claims to intercept comms where Russians in Ukraine started eating dogs
 

 

[panzermartin]

Terriers are very skinny, only good enough for a side dish. And orcs are eating humans when available . I call this a hoax. 

[LongLeftFlank]

On 5/19/2022 at 9:03 PM, LongLeftFlank said:

French analyst has the same read on our old friend Dovhenke as you did a month ago, @Combatintman.  Perhaps he reads here lol.

The stubborn 'cork in the bottle' for the Izyum-Sloviansk highway.

 

 

 

1.   And since mid April, Dovhenke STILL continues to be the cork in the bottle for the Russians south of Izyum!  Look at the moonscape of craters!

Interesting linear barrage pattern though; haven't seen that too much.

Remember that Moscow volunteer Shoygu who wrote that long screed about being tossed into a meat grinder? The meat grinder was  Dovhenke; he was with 752 MRR / 3 MRD.

2.  Intense video (Russian side source) of Russian KUB drone knocking out a UA tank, and the crew bailing.  Warning to the squeamish: they intersperse it with brief explicit takes of burn wounds being treated, no idea if it's the stricken crewmen or not.

3.  Leningrad Cowboys go Popasna?

Since I'm not cruel enough to post the Leningrad Cowboys 'Machine Gun Blues', here's a far better version by Social D....

And I'm already gone, I left a pool of blood and sorrow....

4.  Bombardment of Sloviansk junction has begun, as UA forces in Donbas feel the pressure:

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2022-05-29/ukraine-battlefield-us-weapons-6171449.html (WaPo 29 May)

“Seventy people from my battalion were injured in the last week,” said a soldier and ambulance driver ....

“All the wounded are coming from shrapnel. Most guys in the trenches haven’t even seen the enemy face-to-face.”

If he could send one message to Washington, he said, it would be this: “Help us with weapons. The most important is antiaircraft. Close the sky — it’s the civilians who are suffering the most.”

“If Russia doesn’t lose, they won’t have any internal transformation,” Podolyak said. “A Russia that doesn’t lose will, on the contrary, be more chauvinist and have an even more revanchist outlook, because they will hate us for humiliating them in front of the rest of the world ... and, accordingly, in two years they will come back and kill us even more brutally.”

5. Sapper Maksim hard at work and tweeting again. Glad they didn't cashier him for breaking OPSEC with his thread on how he rumbled the river crossing.

Mine warfare is brutal stuff (as any Iraq vet will testify), but it pays dividends. But this is why I don't want Ivan to get too comfortable before the UA takes back the country. Mines are nasty things that Russia can still make and sow/scatter by the million....

Edited May 31, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[kraze]

16 hours ago, Cederic said:

https://www.tryukraine.com/info/gripes.shtml

Quite why some people are fixated on Russian bathroom installations is beyond me. Yes, 20-25% of Russian families lack inside plumbing, but Ukraine is hardly a shining exemplar here.

 

I do however disagree that Russia would not respond to Ukrainian armed forces re-entering Crimea. I think that would be perceived as an escalation and likely result in war formally being declared, allowing Putin to call a full mobilisation. Admittedly a badly trained ill-equipped one lacking in armour support, but a lot of warm bodies has a quality all of its own.

This war is a proof that quantity doesn't have "quality of its own". They even outnumbered us in hardware, still do. And they constantly cut down on their goals. From taking whole Ukraine in 3 days to calling it "special operation on protecting Donbas" now. That's literally how it's called for the past month. Plus if russians could do full mobilization realistically - they would've done it months ago.

Yeah and remind me who is stealing toilets from whom en masse?

[Butschi]

17 minutes ago, kraze said:

This war is a proof that quantity doesn't have "quality of its own". They even outnumbered us in hardware, still do. And they constantly cut down on their goals. From taking whole Ukraine in 3 days to calling it "special operation on protecting Donbas" now. That's literally how it's called for the past month. Plus if russians could do full mobilization realistically - they would've done it months ago.

Yeah and remind me who is stealing toilets from whom en masse?

While quantity may still have a quality of its own, we surely have seen that it doesn't have a quality on its own...

Btw. given how prices of everything related to building a house sky-rocketed over the last years, stealing toilets sounds like a reasonable thing if your meagre soldier's pay can't keep up with your expenses.

Edited May 31, 2022 by Butschi

[akd]

Remember that tank that hit a mine and decided to see if it could find more mines in the minefield? Things just got worse after the second mine:

 

[Harmon Rabb]

Some new information regarding foreign made equipment in Ukraine.

Always nice to see video footage and photographs of this stuff on the ground.

[sross112]

For Steve:

[AlsatianFelix]

17 hours ago, Haiduk said:

UKR troops near Davydiv Brid, Kherson oblast. Looks like the video of Krasnopol hit was about this group

 

 

Everyone should notice that the Uke AFVs moving in the Davydiv Brid, Kherson videos are marked with a new recognition symbol:  a single vertical white stripe on each of the four faces of the vehicle.

 

Edited May 31, 2022 by AlsatianFelix

[FancyCat]

Something else to keep in mind, removing Putin does not guarantee Russia stops acting like a great power and threatening her neighbors, imagine a internal coup removing Putin, and the West stops the sanctions and lets Ukraine freeze again on EU and NATO membership (not entirely impossible considering say Trump reenters the Presidency in 2024, Germany, France may betray Eastern Europe, etc). 

There is no guarantee that whatever Russian leader that comes after Putin will be as incompetent and certainly no guarantee they would be anti-war. As Finland illustrates, yes, Finland could stay neutral and risk conflict with Russia, while certainly they would be able to hold their own against Russia, maybe even win, why risk the conflict and all that suffering that entails? Better to join NATO, and make it nearly impossible. 

Yes, Ukraine could decide not to escalate by not taking Crimea, but why risk something 20 years down the line where Russia remasses forces on her border, and cuts off Odessa from Crimea and then 20 years down the line, certainly Ukraine's position on Crimea will be weaker due to time simply. No, its better to cut now and ensure Ukraine will not have to deal with this **** in the future. 

Retake Crimea and no more Kherson Peoples Republic or Novorossiya.