How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[keas66]

9 minutes ago, purpheart23 said:

Undoubtedly, that's why THEY should start preparing.

So you are proponent of American Isolationism  ? That worked out so well the last time around now didn't it .

[dan/california]

A BTG per day, every day, Minimum.

[Battlefront.com]

Heard a joke today about the latest SBU intercept:

R= Russian Soldier, M = Mother

R = Mom, I am in Ukraine.  It's a meat grinder.

M = That's nice, but what I really need is a blender.

Hopefully you non-native English speakers will find that funny

Steve

[TheVulture]

Having heard on the BBC (who just this morning got around to the famous bridging fiasco as breaking news) about how Russia is threatening to encircle Sievierodonetsk, I decided to summarise how the Russian 'threatening to encircle' reports have changed over the war so far:

[purpheart23]

1 minute ago, keas66 said:

So you are proponent of American Isolationism  ? That worked out so well the last time around now didn't it .

That's conjecture, no i'm a fan of being fiscally responsible where it makes sense, we've already armed them with AT, Artillery, ISR assets, who knows what else. If anybody needs to fork over that money, it's the EU, after all they stand the most to lose. When the money finally moves, because it will, politicians gotta get paid you know, why not get receipts?

[Huba]

7 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Having heard on the BBC (who just this morning got around to the famous bridging fiasco as breaking news) about how Russia is threatening to encircle Sievierodonetsk, I decided to summarise how the Russian 'threatening to encircle' reports have changed over the war so far:

[billbindc]

15 minutes ago, purpheart23 said:

Undoubtedly, that's why THEY should start preparing.

Since Ukraine doesn't exist in a bubble and neither do we, we are involved whether we like it or not. That means we need to put our political power and money where it counts to produce a resolution that works to maintain a global order that's quite significantly canted in our favor. Ukraine did work mightily to prepare for this scenario but they were limited by innate capability, the then state of interstate politics in the EU, the ability/willingness of American administrations to help. For our part, the strategic goal should be to a; recognize that Russian aggression on this scale is highly destabilizing to the international order, b; pursue what means are feasible to put a stop to that aggression now and c; ensure that such aggression in the foreseeable future is not going to reoccur.

We created the global order and benefit enormously in a myriad of ways large and small. $40 billion is a small price to pay to maintain it.

[FancyCat]

47 minutes ago, purpheart23 said:

We have our own issues, with supply chains, inflation, housing costs, last thing we need to do is print 40 bn more dollars to send to Europe to be laundered and for a war that's well on it's way to being decided.

its not being sent, most of it just gets used to purchase American weapons and equipment to be used by Ukraine. job creation. 

Edited May 13, 2022 by FancyCat

[purpheart23]

12 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Since Ukraine doesn't exist in a bubble and neither do we, we are involved whether we like it or not. That means we need to put our political power and money where it counts to produce a resolution that works to maintain a global order that's quite significantly canted in our favor. Ukraine did work mightily to prepare for this scenario but they were limited by innate capability, the then state of interstate politics in the EU, the ability/willingness of American administrations to help. For our part, the strategic goal should be to a; recognize that Russian aggression on this scale is highly destabilizing to the international order, b; pursue what means are feasible to put a stop to that aggression now and c; ensure that such aggression in the foreseeable future is not going to reoccur.

We created the global order and benefit enormously in a myriad of ways large and small. $40 billion is a small price to pay to maintain it.

 That's where we disagree, all good til we need to foot the bill for something not even in our hemisphere of control. Another nation rebuilding? Those have been going swimmingly for the last quarter century, all at the final tally of trillions of dollars to future generations. You'll never convince me that dumping 40bn into Ukraine right now is a good idea, especially without oversight. I do appreciate the well thought out response though.

[FancyCat]

Mind you, EU is putting up some hefty money for Ukraine as well.

But breaking it down, only 8 billion actually goes to Ukraine to be "laundered".

Money for weapons and equipment, uh...who's Ukraine gonna buy it from? China? No it's us silly. 9 billion is simply to buy more weapons to replenish our depleted stocks. $5 billion to ensure the supply shortages worldwide due to Ukrainian grain being stolen by Russia don't **** up more countries into instability. (Mind you american grain does exist, so who's gonna benefit from higher grain prices?)

Quoted from: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/rand-paul-blocks-quick-passage-40-billion-ukraine-aid-package-rcna28648

Quote

Biden asked Congress for $33 billion two weeks ago. It didn’t take lawmakers long to add $3.4 billion to his requests for both military and humanitarian programs.  The measure includes $6 billion for Ukraine for intelligence, equipment and training for its forces, plus $4 billion in financing to help Kyiv and NATO allies build up their militaries.  There’s $8.7 billion for the Pentagon to rebuild stocks of weapons it has shipped to Ukraine and $3.9 billion for U.S. troops in the region.  The measure also includes $8.8 billion to keep the Kyiv government functioning, more than $5 billion to provide food to countries around the world that rely on Ukrainian crops devastated by the fighting and $900 million to teach English and provide other services to Ukrainian refugees who have moved to the United States.

 

Edited May 13, 2022 by FancyCat

[asurob]

57 minutes ago, purpheart23 said:

We have our own issues, with supply chains, inflation, housing costs, last thing we need to do is print 40 bn more dollars to send to Europe to be laundered and for a war that's well on it's way to being decided.

We're Americans, it's what we do...we help the world when it's in need.  When this war reaches it's conclusion, Ukraine will need more than ATGM to rebuild it's shattered economy.  Unless you're in favor of it falling away from democracy and into a fascist type regime.   Sounds' like you're a Rand Paul fan, so likely you are...

[Huba]

This was actually reported by Reuters, so might have some credibility:

And related, 2 more nails needed for Russia's coffin:

 

Edited May 13, 2022 by Huba

[purpheart23]

1 minute ago, asurob said:

We're Americans, it's what we do...we help the world when it's in need.  When this war reaches it's conclusion, Ukraine will need more than ATGM to rebuild it's shattered economy.  Unless you're in favor of it falling away from democracy and into a fascist type regime.   Sounds' like you're a Rand Paul fan, so likely you are...

Lmao, don't try to gaslight me dude. Hilarious, what are you 5 years old?

[Centurian52]

11 hours ago, Canada Guy said:

Found an interesting site 'Battle Front' and it threw up a few questions.

1. He stated that the UKR was running T80BVs but I had thought that they were only running Oplots at the beginning of the war. 

2. What does the flamethrower platoon consist of? I cannot imagine it is anything like what I would consider 'flamethrower '

3. He has a pic of what looks like a 30mm AA gun hog tied to the roof of an IFV in his video 'weakness of the VDV' at 16:56. This explains a lot but do any of you know what this trying to accomplish or what this is?

The Ukrainians have almost no Oplots (around 10 in total I believe). They mostly have T64BVs and T64BV model 2017s, with a handful of T80BVs and T64BM Bulats. They also have a handful of assorted T72s (many of them captured from the Russians, I'm not sure how many T72s they had at the start of the war) and the aforementioned insignificant number of T84 Oplots.

[Battlefront.com]

We need to keep the politics OUT OF THIS THREAD!  What I mean is pushing personal political opinions that go beyond issues relating to Ukraine or are framed in a way that is pretty obviously designed to push a specific political agenda.  Here's an example of how to thread the needle:

11 minutes ago, purpheart23 said:

That's conjecture, no i'm a fan of being fiscally responsible where it makes sense, we've already armed them with AT, Artillery, ISR assets, who knows what else. If anybody needs to fork over that money, it's the EU, after all they stand the most to lose. When the money finally moves, because it will, politicians gotta get paid you know, why not get receipts?

When either party in DC decides to REALLY be fiscally responsible, I will eat my hat.  Arguments about fiscal responsibility from our politicians are generally utter crap.  Short sighted, uninformed, blather to get suckers to vote for them thinking they might actually believe in anything they say.  The statistics over the past 40 years completely and totally backed me up on this.

The way this should be looked at is as an investment in our economic future.  Putin needs to go.  Isolationism has never, ever, EVER been good for the US economy.  EVER.  So anybody that is out there seriously rocking the boat with destruction needs to be gotten rid of.  The sooner, the better because the longer this war goes on the more expensive the costs are after it is over.  And if Putin is able to do this again, well... the costs go up even more.

The US (and other nations) have appeased Putin for far too long.  It's long past time to, at the very least, box Russia in so that it is another Iran or North Korea.  Best case, we can get a regime change from within that eventually gets us a better Russia.

Either way, we in the West have a choice... spend money to allow Ukraine to do what needs to be done or spend money and blood to do what needs to be done.  The third option, which is an option, is to let Ukraine fail and then be forced into the second option sooner rather than later.

The US spent trillions on two wars that were poorly defined and idiotic from the start.  Spending billions to help someone else fight a fairly straight forward and clearly defined war so we don't have to is smart.  VERY smart.

Steve

[BlackMoria]

I feel a disturbance in the force.  The shadow of Elvis approaches.

In other words, back on topic, gents.

[keas66]

2 minutes ago, purpheart23 said:

Lmao, don't try to gaslight me dude. Hilarious, what are you 5 years old?

NVM

Edited May 13, 2022 by keas66

[riptides]

52 minutes ago, purpheart23 said:

Can I borrow your crystal ball?

You said "well on the way to be decided".

 

Nothing has been decided. The entire situation remains fluid and fraught with world wide influencing peril. On all fronts (social, economic and military).

[Aragorn2002]

58 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Erdogan has any number of medium sized issues with both the EU and the US. It is possible he wants a corrupt Turkish banker let out of jail, or some obscure corruption based sanction lifted. Maybe he wants some level of forgiveness for the S-400 deal? Needs must when the devil is driving, pay the man and move on. It grates my *%$&$& but I am sure Orban will want some sort of bribe/concession as well. Just part of it.

Perhaps it's time to raise the question what the Turks are still doing in NATO.

[The_Capt]

Just going to leave this right here for people to muse on.  No political spin in it, just history:

https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-ii/marshall-plan-1#:~:text=The Marshall Plan%2C also known,Secretary of State George C.

So that is roughly $218B in todays money:

https://www.officialdata.org/1945-CAD-in-2018?amount=1#:~:text=Value of %241 from 1945,cumulative price increase of 1%2C357.74%.

Likely one of the biggest nation building/reconstruction efforts in modern history which led directly to this:

https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/united-states_en

But people gotta figure it out for themselves.

 

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, purpheart23 said:

 That's where we disagree, all good til we need to foot the bill for something not even in our hemisphere of control. Another nation rebuilding? Those have been going swimmingly for the last quarter century, all at the final tally of trillions of dollars to future generations. You'll never convince me that dumping 40bn into Ukraine right now is a good idea, especially without oversight. I do appreciate the well thought out response though.

You do realize 40b is almost a rounding error in the US economy, right?  Chump change.  If that money is spent or not spent on Ukraine the US taxpayer will not even notice it on their tax bill.  Especially because most Americans don't pay Federal taxes.

Steve

[billbindc]

20 minutes ago, purpheart23 said:

 That's where we disagree, all good til we need to foot the bill for something not even in our hemisphere of control. Another nation rebuilding? Those have been going swimmingly for the last quarter century, all at the final tally of trillions of dollars to future generations. You'll never convince me that dumping 40bn into Ukraine right now is a good idea, especially without oversight. I do appreciate the well thought out response though.

Note, I was for the Afghanistan withdrawal for pretty much exactly those reasons. But it's really important to not apply a one-size-fits-all approach to strategic policy. Afghanistan/Iraq/etc were peripheral conflicts of choice. The outcome was never going to affect the global order or our preeminent place within it in any significant way. In fact, those conflicts oriented the US away from peer threats and more important theaters and so could cogently be argued to have actually weakened that order which we lead and from which we reap the benefits. 

Ukraine and the Russian invasion are not in any way peripheral. It's on the border of NATO, on the border of the EU and uncontested Russian taking and control of that space would have profound global effects. Not least of those effects would be the immediate collapse of the rule that European states cannot violently settle disputes or borders. So, I have some sympathy for your argument but it's simply not applicable on this central of a challenge.

P.S. I hope the above is not seen as political per se. It certainly is a very bipartisan position in DC at the moment.

 

Edited May 13, 2022 by billbindc

[Battlefront.com]

59 minutes ago, c3k said:

Once again, this thread is valuable when it stays on the topic of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

(As a citizen of the United States, do any of you think my opinion of Dutch politicians, Australian politics, or worse, a combination of both, would either be pertinent or accurate?)

 

Yup, and it is why Chuckdyke just got a warning.  Vacation is the next step.

Steve

[FancyCat]

Just now, Aragorn2002 said:

Perhaps it's time to raise the question what the Turks are still doing in NATO.

Mind you, this is just angling for concessions. Money, sanctions relief, etc. For example, there are multiple military-industrial sanctions on Turkey, that they may want repealed.

I don't really see the issue in Turkey, a NATO ally, asking her fellow NATO partners who have placed restrictions on it, to repeal them so she can better produce weapons and equipment for Ukraine, oh and some compensation for the market loss previously would be nice.

But to answer your question, the Black Sea being locked down to further reinforcement of the Russian Black Sea Fleet basically answers why Turkey was, is and will be in NATO forever.

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Perhaps it's time to raise the question what the Turks are still doing in NATO.

I expect that if Turkey blocks Sweden or Finland due to it's personal pet peeves, there will be a lot of questioning going on and it won't end well for Turkey.  Which is why I expect they will not attempt to veto either application.

Steve