How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[LongLeftFlank]

 

 

[Lurb]

53 minutes ago, Machor said:

At any rate, we're faced with the same question as the conscript's issued weapon: Why has he been issued a Mosin where Russia has ample supplies of AK-47/AKM

Maybe he is a pro FPS-gamer. Everyone knows Mosins are always one shot kills while you need multiple hits with an AK 

More seriously, I guess properly scoped that would be a nice budget sniper rifle, but naked and with a bayonet...

[Huba]

2 hours ago, Huba said:

So for some more unsettling news.

It was already reported yesterday that Russians attempted to bridge Donets near Bilohorivka, and apparently succeeded and are moving equipment through it. Polish media report that governor of Luhansk oblast said that today will be decisive. Russians threaten the main road to Lysichansk and Severodonetsk. Hopefully the two tank brigades Ukrainians have in reserve will be able to smash the Russian bridghead and drown them in the river.

 

 

[The_Capt]

5 minutes ago, Huba said:

 

So Axis 3 - looks like an attempt for a southern axis end run around Slovyansk.  River is narrow there, both tanks and IFVs could just bounce that, but logistics and arty are another problem.

Edited May 9, 2022 by The_Capt

[billbindc]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The bottom line here is Russia needs to toss in the conscripts and call up the reserves if it is going to survive the summer in Ukraine.  Has to.  The longer he waits the harder it is going to be to hang on and likely whatever conditions he fears will get worse.  He must know this.  Therefore, he has a lot of incentive to move ahead with "war" sooner rather than later and take the risk that it will work out OK.

Steve

Well...I've read Putin's speech and whatever tea leaves exist therein escape me entirely. It looks like they aren't doing a general mobilization which I think is a surprise to most close observers and now I haven't the foggiest idea what Putin thinks he's doing at this point.

[Huba]

19 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So Axis 3 - looks like an attempt for a southern axis end run around Slovyansk.  River is narrow there, both tanks and IFVs could just bounce that, but logistics and arty are another problem.

In comments somebody pointed that picture is from another attempted crossing, and that the status of the last one is still uncertain. You can see that both coordinates mentioned in the comments show bridges were built along high voltage wire paths, where forest is usually cut down. Those should be accessible to tracked vehicles, but anything on wheels will get bogged down at some point. Also, those are quite obvious points for such attempt, I can't imagine that UA artillery is not zeroed at them already.

I'm a bit surprised though that Russians still have enough steam to make such attempts. AFAIR some of the units withdrawn from Izium were moved to the area near Rubizhne - maybe they finally abandoned the idea of "larger" pincer and concentrated on the smallest one, on Popasna - Bakhmut - wherever in the north axis, leaving Slovyansk and Kramatorsk out of the intended cauldron?

Edit: map from Schlotmann:

 

Edited May 9, 2022 by Huba

[Huba]

Oh, and according to article here, Russians used Kh-22 missiles for the first time. They really have to be scrapping the bottom of the long range PGM barrel at this point.

https://defence-ua.com/army_and_war/rashisti_dlja_udariv_po_ukrajini_vpershe_zastosuvali_radjanski_krilati_raketi_h_22-7278.html

Edited May 9, 2022 by Huba

[LongLeftFlank]

The defenses northeast of Sloviansk (Lyman-Sviatohyrsk) seem to be holding up, and the river still lies beyond.

This guy gets some very good insights on action from the FIRMS wildfire tracker, but his sources can also sometimes be a bit dated. So don't get too excited about any one point.

Somebody slap me down if I'm wrong here, but punching into the eastern (Seviorodonetsk) end of the Ukrainian line is kind of like the 1940 Germans ignoring Belgium and attacking into the heart of the Maginot Line.  The UA has prepared fallbacks and fallbacks and fallbacks....

So congrats, Ivan, you bled yourself white in Rubizhne for months and finally broke through to 'the green fields beyond'. 

Except you need to leave all your (oh so plentiful) infantry to seal off or assault that oil refinery with more nuclear bomb shelters in it.....

 

Edited May 9, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Suleyman]

Yeah they still have units to do offensives. The thing is the Ukrainians got the tools to halt it by inflicting heavy casualties. On the flip side the Russians got tools to do heavy damage as well. If they relocated 19 BTGs worth of units to Belgorod to go into the Kharkov region, and they’re launching offensives in the Izium-Popasnaya-Slaviyansk areas there might be a underestimation on the manpower they still possess to utilize. Not by a lot though, nothing crazy.
 

I know they wish they never went for that “feint” (faint*) and wasted all those capable soldiers over there. 

 

 

Edited May 9, 2022 by Suleyman

[Haiduk]

45 minutes ago, Huba said:

 

This photo doesn't reflect Bilohorivka pontoon crossing - this is crossing in 2,5 NE from Dronivka village,destroyed yesterday. This was shortest way to Siversk town. After this crossing was destroyed Russians could put another one near Bilohorivka village after heavy bomb strikes in previous day. They could seize bridgehead there this morning, but our troops could destroy this pontoons too and now conducts clean up operation in Bilohorivka.

About Popasna. There was incorrect information that our troops completely left the town. UKR forces withdrew from "zero line", which during two month was shelled and bombed with all weapon and now completely ruined as well as streets around. UKR troops after repelling another assault had a time to withdrew on new fortified positions, but its located in the town. Our soldiers from there wrote Russians seized empty ruined trenches and tried to advance futher, but lost about dozen of tanks and ligh armor and retreated on own previous positions, so "zero line" now is mostly "grey zone"

On other hand LPR troops with Russian artilery and aviation support seized Nyzhnie village north from previously seized ruins of Novotoshkivske

Edited May 9, 2022 by Haiduk

[Huba]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

This photo doesn't reflect Bilohorivka pontoon crossing - this is crossing in 2,5 NE from Dronivka village,destroyed yesterday. This was shortest way to Siversk town. After this crossing was destroyed Russians could put another one near Bilohorivka village after heavy bomb strikes in previous day. They could seize bridgehead there this morning, but our troops could destroy this pontoons too and now conducts clean up operation in Bilohorivka.

About Popasna. There was incorrect information that our troops completely left the town. UKR forces withdrew from "zero line", which during two month was shelled and bombed with all wepon and now completely ruined as well as streets around. UKR troops after repelling another assault had a time to withdrew on new fortified positions, but its located in the town. Our soldiers from there wrote Russians seized empty ruined trenches and tried to advance futher, but lost about dozen of tanks and ligh armor and retreated on own previous positions, so "zero line" now is mostly "grey zone"

On other hand LPR troops with Russian artilery and aviation suport seized Nyzhnie village north from previously seized ruins of Novotoshkivske

Thanks Haiduk,

This is more or less how I thought it is going - after totally obliterating a small area with artillery Russians can move a bit, but Ukrainians just move to a pre-prepared line of defense located just a bit behind. Analogy to WW1 is obvious, those advances have to be extremely  costly in men and equipment (as in your example of Popasna). Actually giving the bits of ground to Russians seems smart too, counterattacking there would be extremely costly too (again, as we learned from WW1), trading ground is a much more sensible approach.

I wonder about this info of new units amassing in Belgorod. Some have to be units recuperating after being withdrawn from the front. There might be some fresh ones too, I wonder if Russians are stupid enough to commit them into another strike in upcoming days.

Also, as follow up from today's incident, Russia withdraws it's ambassador from Poland, and expels ours from Moscow:

 

[kraze]

Polish ambassador, who was punished assigned to Russia for whatever bad thing he did: "oh boy, I'm finally getting back to a place that has toilets inside buildings!"

Russian ambassador: "oh snap", proceeds to unscrew the one inside his

Edited May 9, 2022 by kraze

[The_Capt]

So it has been a awhile, time for another assessment signpost I think.

So as I have gone on about, I am a fan of Options Based Warfare, particularly as a tool at the strategic level; however, it links closely to the Operational level as well - although operational level is more obsessed with "decision", and tactical will always be about capability and effects.  These are inter-link concepts, another way to think about it:

Or another way to think of it - in the linear model (of which I am not a fan):

An options based view takes the position that historically the side that can sustain or expand its effective strategic options while compressing those of an opponent will likely win the war.  I challenge people to find a counter-example to this and I have yet to hear one.  We have plenty examples of desperate tactical actions where the victor was down to that last one option and somehow pulls it off (e.g. Chamberlain's charge at Little Round Top), which makes for great movies; however, real warfare is a brutal and grinding business that cares little for human drama.  The harsh reality is that if you are in a war where your effective options are collapsing while your opponents are not, you need to re-assess cause the news "ain't good".

So what of this war?  Well, we have steadily watch Ukraine sustain and expand their options-sets which appear to include:

- Offensives around Kharkiv.

- Increased pressure on Kherson.

- Increased attacks and pressure at Russian SLOCs, even in Russia itself.

- Continued denial swaths of the Black Sea.

- Rapidly expanding strategic sustainment and support options from the West.

I am sure I have forgotten some.  Ukraine, has got a lot of effective strategic options right now.  Operationally they have significant freedom of manoeuvre and are attacking along the Russian positions with pretty much impunity as Russia has still failed to establish operational pre-conditions.  Strategically, they are ready to fight long or short.  They can continue to hit targets within Russia and they are getting more and more capability everyday.  Even the UAF appears to have made a resurgence in the last few days.

Russia: news not so good.  My assessment is that Russia is basically down to two "effective" options left - withdraw, reload and try again later OR, push as much dumb mass at the current lines and try for the long defensive and hope attrition impacts Ukrainian will. All other options Russia had on 23 Feb, have collapsed to these two "best of bad".  My point being is that I suspect Russia is rapidly coming to the point, or are already there, where strategic or operational offensive action is off the table. These tepid strained pushes from Izyum and around Lyman are doing pretty much as well as expected - uncoordinated, costly and slow.  Once Ukraine masses enough c-artillery and logistics (operational deep strike) capability, this whole Russian offensive will be over and the best they can do is stuff the front line with scared kids, poorly equipped, worse trained and with next to zero unit cohesion.  

In order to turn this around Russia needs strategic options, and it basically spent them all.  For example, a major offensive out of Belarus towards Lviv to effectively cut off western support was an option on 23 Feb, it is no longer viable in the least.  The lesson here is that options are built entirely on opportunity power, and once you have spent that...well time to start learning to live with defeat.  And I do not care if Russia can muster another 200k troops to push into the Donbas, the days of dismounted unsupported infantry being able to create options is also pretty much over.  The critical path will be UA ammunition to kill them all and I am pretty sure the west has got that one covered.

Finally, "what about tac nukes?".  Well it has been discussed a lot here and elsewhere.  The question to my mind is "are tac nukes an effective option".  We always have ineffective options, or terrible ones - in universe built on chaos we will always have an infinite amount of "bad options".  Tactical nuclear weapons are tailor made for this situation: when you are all outta other options.  

I frankly do not know what the Russian calculus is on the use of WMDs at the operational level right now.  They are way past doctrine and legality, so this will come likely come down to, "will it work?"  Most tactical nuclear weapons can do a lot of damage to a few kilometers but these are pretty big frontages we are talking about, so Russia would need to use a lot of them, to have a very good idea exactly where to hit the UA.  It is not like Russia can simply fire off 2 or 3 and declare victory.

Then Russia has to be concerned about more direct western intervention in Ukraine as a result.  The release of tactical nuclear weapons could see a western response that removes what is left of the Black Sea Fleet in an afternoon, NATO troops securing western Ukraine and Kyiv, freeing up every UA member down South and East - and what Putin likely fears most, western airpower.

Anyway, I still do not think WMDs are a likely option but that may come down to "will they wont' they, and will we?" in the end.  Regardless, if phase 2 of this war was "posturing for endgame", I suspect we may be coming to "endgame" shortly, unless something very unexpected happens.  My bet is that the endgame will be Russian's trying to dig in and hold what they have, while the Ukrainian military figures out what offence looks like - given the successes around Kharkiv, I am thinking they already have a pretty good idea.  

 

 

Edited May 9, 2022 by The_Capt

[FancyCat]

Interesting, the speech by Zelensky, certainly a hardening of the Ukrainian position on future peace, a direct call out to Putin, seemingly in a very 1 to 1 manner in a way. Certainly Zelensky is boasting of his ability to walk the streets of Kiev, and keen to shout out the unity of the anti-Nazi coalition.

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 

I think what is mighty insidious and appalling is that Russia has deliberately stolen the victory over Nazi Germany to push a fascist domestic and foreign policy, in effect not just ignoring but also burying the crimes of the Nazis to its own people, and attempting to do the same worldwide (thru their subversive activities, and public statements). Why it is vital to counteract them is because their basis for this war rests upon the victory over Nazi Germany.

I have no doubt that Russia's erasure of history has caused deep harm to Ukraine internationally. When it decries Nazism in Ukraine, when it asserts that it is rooting out evil in Ukraine, a huge part of that relies on the narrative that Russia alone is heir to the victory over Nazi Germany, it alone is heir to the USSR's heroic stand against fascism. Removing Russia's narrative requires damaging, in a sense, "the monument to Soviet victory" precisely due to the way Russia has sought to wrap itself in this victory as a defense against all criticism. Something to keep in mind.

[Aragorn2002]

21 minutes ago, Huba said:

Thanks Haiduk,

This is more or less how I thought it is going - after totally obliterating a small area with artillery Russians can move a bit, but Ukrainians just move to a pre-prepared line of defense located just a bit behind. Analogy to WW1 is obvious, those advances have to be extremely  costly in men and equipment (as in your example of Popasna). Actually giving the bits of ground to Russians seems smart too, counterattacking there would be extremely costly too (again, as we learned from WW1), trading ground is a much more sensible approach.

I wonder about this info of new units amassing in Belgorod. Some have to be units recuperating after being withdrawn from the front. There might be some fresh ones too, I wonder if Russians are stupid enough to commit them into another strike in upcoming days.

Also, as follow up from today's incident, Russia withdraws it's ambassador from Poland, and expels ours from Moscow:

 

Don't approve of such behavior. Not out of pity for this guy, but it's just lowering yourself to their standards. 

Okay, I chuckled a bit, but that only shows what a mean bastard I am.

Edited May 9, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[LongLeftFlank]

2 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Interesting, the speech by Zelensky, certainly a hardening of the Ukrainian position on future peace, a direct call out to Putin, seemingly in a very 1 to 1 manner in a way. Certainly Zelensky is boasting of his ability to walk the streets of Kiev, and keen to shout out the unity of the anti-Nazi coalition.

I think what is mighty insidious and appalling is that Russia has deliberately stolen the victory over Nazi Germany to push a fascist domestic and foreign policy, in effect not just ignoring but also burying the crimes of the Nazis to its own people, and attempting to do the same worldwide (thru their subversive activities, and public statements). Why it is vital to counteract them is because their basis for this war rests upon the victory over Nazi Germany.

I have no doubt that Russia's erasure of history has caused deep harm to Ukraine internationally. When it decries Nazism in Ukraine, when it asserts that it is rooting out evil in Ukraine, a huge part of that relies on the narrative that Russia alone is heir to the victory over Nazi Germany, it alone is heir to the USSR's heroic stand against fascism. Removing Russia's narrative requires damaging, in a sense, "the monument to Soviet victory" precisely due to the way Russia has sought to wrap itself in this victory as a defense against all criticism. Something to keep in mind.

Well, I was supecting that was bluescreen work and a treadmill about 30 seconds in. The lighting on the Prez is a little too steady to be outdoors.  Probably safest though, not worth getting killed for such things.

[Kinophile]

The last thing I associate with Zelensky is personal cowardice. If he wants to walk the streets, he's dang well gonna.

[LongLeftFlank]

3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

The last thing I associate with Zelensky is personal cowardice. If he wants to walk the streets, he's dang well gonna.

Sure, nobody doubts that, but about the last thing Ukraine needs right now is for him to blow up and have to be replaced by a committee.

Functionally, things would keep running much as they are of course, but the symbolic element would be lost and that's important in maintaining support overseas, in the aforementioned celebrity-crazy West.

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Kinophile]

Well, after all those strenuous Russian efforts, still, on May 9th, MARIUPOL STILL STANDS.

Putler didn't get his victory to crow about. He could have faked it/ignored the defense but I guess there/s some things even his regime cant hide.

 

[Kinophile]

12 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Sure, nobody doubts that, but about the last thing Ukraine needs right now is for him to blow up and have to be replaced by a committee.

Functionally, things would keep running much as they are of course, but the symbolic element would be lost and that's important in maintaining support overseas, in the aforementioned celebrity-crazy West.

Absolutely. Still, I work in Film/Tv. That footage wasn't faked and threadmill walking is instantly recognizable to an experienced 1st A.D.

Edited May 9, 2022 by Kinophile

[LongLeftFlank]

Just now, Kinophile said:

Sure. I work in Film/Tv. That footage wasn't faked and threadmill walking is instantly recognizable to an experienced 1st A.D.

outta likes but good enough for me, many thanks. 

[Kinophile]

Man, every time I see these stupid parades I think - 12 SPGs rolling past. That could have been 12 amazing, world class high schools. Or local hospitals. Or social housing.

But no.

[Haiduk]

17 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

About month ago there was information we have in morgues about 8600 bodies of Russian soldiers (or even pointed the total weight of bodies and body fragments), whih Russian side doesn't want to take back. Even in present time locals and police continie to find bodies. Some part of Russians were burried in temporary graves after the combat actions in March - first half of April, when there is no firm frontline and situation was too changeable. 

But on the other hand we also have many missed soldiers, especially in Volnovakha and Popasna. Theese towns, like and Rubizhne and Izium suffered much more devastation than Mariupol. 

Edited May 9, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Looks like direct hits of arty shell and detonation. Hull down position in caponiers doesn't help against indirect fire. Kharkiv oblast