How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[DesertFox]

Russians and fire...Messer, Schere, Licht, dürfen kleine Kinder nicht...

 

 

[Degsy]

Interesting Youtube discussion from 3rd May about Ukraine with  US generals McMaster and Hodges (former commander of USAEUR). They talk about amongst other things, the likelihood of nuclear escalation, Russian performance so to date, the lack of Rus cyber warfare so far, the surprisingly long lead time for US manufacturers to produce fresh systems like Javelin, and perceived failings on the Ukrainian side. Those failings were seen as weak logistics chains, taking too much time to activate the TDF, and lack of ammunition for the Russian legacy 122 and 152 arty.  You can judge their conclusion from the title of the vid, but they make the point that it's going to be long and bloody road to get there.

"Ukraine is going to end up winning" - McMaster and Hodges discussion.

[Haiduk]

Probably UKR Island class patrol boat near Odesa. There was information two days ago drifting mine was spotted (in previous month several mines of our minefield were blown off the anchors), probably the boat fires to destroy it

 

Edited May 6, 2022 by Haiduk

[Der Zeitgeist]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Probably UKR Island class patrol boat near Odesa. There was information two days ago drifting mine was spotted, probably the boat fires to destroy it

Any news about that Russian frigate that may or may not be burning at sea?

[Armorgunner]

2 hours ago, kraze said:

12 is 12 more than 0. Plus right now we have no crew to man them anyway. And by the time we do - there will be more sense to send in dozens more.

These 12 will most likely be used to train our crews domestically, they won't be on the frontlines for at least a month.

Yes, an artillery battalion of 155 mm, is a very powerful resource locally! And Panzerhaubitze 2000, is one of the best out there. 5 rounds of MRSI, and very long range.

 

a 12 gun battalion can have 60 rounds, simultaneously Airburst at the target area. No time to hide!

 

Edited May 6, 2022 by Armorgunner

[Aragorn2002]

2 hours ago, Huba said:

But the distinction is really important from the foreign relations perspective. For Germany especially, the remaining guilt coming from WW2 atrocities against USRR was resulting in giving Russia a bit of special treatment/ cutting it a lot of slack - which is unjust as the same approach should be taken against the remaining post-USSR countries, Ukraine especially.

When does playing the guilt card against the Germans ever stop? Germany has paid a huge price, also in compensations and is now a very different country. Countries like Poland and Greece have been compensated, but their hunger for money can never be satisfied. To expect  Germany to be the financier of the rest of Europe forever is not only unjust, but also cheap.

Let the Russians pay for Ukraine.

Edited May 6, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Haiduk]

The source of information that Russian frigate was hit is a deputy of parliament Honcharenko and this news initially was issued by his Odesian media "Dumskaya". Honcharenko also often issued too "victorious" news, so I am sceptic about all of this. I will wait until one man write about this, who 100% knows.

There were some screens (I can't find it again, alas) of marine traffic as if some tug activity between Zmiinyi and Sevastopol and as if frigate was towed to the port. But no any confirmations 

Edited May 6, 2022 by Haiduk

[Kinophile]

Man, snake island is the Bermuda Triangle for the Black Sea Fleet.

If twitter is true.

[TheVulture]

3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Man, snake island is the Bermuda Triangle for the Black Sea Fleet.

If twitter is true.

Not much better for Russian artillery either - here's a TOR system apparently taken out by TB2 on Snake Island - scroll down a bit. (Disclaimer - I remember something very similar from a week or two ago, so not sure if this is a repost of old information or a separate incident).

 

 

[Haiduk]

T-64BV tank hit twice, probably with HEAT projectiles. All crew survived, one of the tankers was really lucky - the shell hit tank in 1 meter from him. Looks like he was wounded and shell-shocked, but could crawl to the trench. 

I read also a version this is enemy crew, which tried to activate abandoned UKR tank.

 

 

Edited May 6, 2022 by Haiduk

[Zeleban]

experimental Ukrainian howitzer "Bogdana" is used in the combat zone

https://mil.in.ua/uk/news/ukrayinska-bogdana-svoyim-vognem-znyshhuye-rosijskyh-okupantiv/?fbclid=IwAR3J5eE9xRpSg-I_V8M8Wzryd7WxIpSpqqv5QKrY9xQlEM5GAh-jWr6MNXE

[Armorgunner]

3 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Not much better for Russian artillery either - here's a TOR system apparently taken out by TB2 on Snake Island - scroll down a bit. (Disclaimer - I remember something very similar from a week or two ago, so not sure if this is a repost of old information or a separate incident).

 

 

TOR unlike TOS, is a SAM system. Not artillery 

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

experimental Ukrainian howitzer "Bogdana" is used in the combat zone

https://mil.in.ua/uk/news/ukrayinska-bogdana-svoyim-vognem-znyshhuye-rosijskyh-okupantiv/?fbclid=IwAR3J5eE9xRpSg-I_V8M8Wzryd7WxIpSpqqv5QKrY9xQlEM5GAh-jWr6MNXE

So on yesterday's video was not a Caesar   

Edited May 6, 2022 by Haiduk

[Taranis]

1 minute ago, Zeleban said:

experimental Ukrainian howitzer "Bogdana" is used in the combat zone

https://mil.in.ua/uk/news/ukrayinska-bogdana-svoyim-vognem-znyshhuye-rosijskyh-okupantiv/?fbclid=IwAR3J5eE9xRpSg-I_V8M8Wzryd7WxIpSpqqv5QKrY9xQlEM5GAh-jWr6MNXE

@Huba
So the previous video is not a CAESAR but a Bogdana. Really very similar

[Taranis]

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

So on yesterday's video was not a Caesar   

Yes, I had some doubts about the muzzle in the first video but with the quality of the video and the presence of two cylinders at the back I did not see what other vehicle it could be. What explains remote-controlled shooting

Edited May 6, 2022 by Taranis

[Huba]

4 minutes ago, Taranis said:

@Huba
So the previous video is not a CAESAR but a Bogdana. Really very similar

Ha, that's interesting, I never heard of it before, I thought CAESAR and ATMOS were the only such designs. As I understand, there is only a single prototype, right? More  of a curiosity then something effective I'd think, but still being a L52 weapon (?) it could be used for some harrasment at least.
 

[Haiduk]

7 minutes ago, Huba said:

As I understand, there is only a single prototype, right?

Yes. This is very looooooong project. And in present time it's not very good. So this is very raw prototype even without autoloader. Long time Bohdana stood dead, because nobody can solve an issue about buying of enough quantity of 155 mm shell for test purposes. Only year ago small party was bough at last in Turkey

Edited May 6, 2022 by Haiduk

[Taranis]

3 minutes ago, Huba said:

Ha, that's interesting, I never heard of it before, I thought CAESAR and ATMOS were the only such designs. As I understand, there is only a single prototype, right? More  of a curiosity then something effective I'd think, but still being a L52 weapon (?) it could be used for some harrasment at least.
 

Me too ! I didn't know this one. At first glance, it may not be an inertial navigation system (not sure). On the CAESAR it is a box which is on the left rear of the barrel and is protruding. The aiming system may not be automatic like on the CAESAR because I can see hydraulic pipes but no control computer and instead what seems to be a steering wheel. (on the left of the vehicle). This is all just guesswork.

[Huba]

Just now, Haiduk said:

Yes. This is very looooooong project. And in present time it's not very good. So this is very raw prototype even without autoloader

As @Taranis mentioned, it explains the remote firing, I wouldn't like to stand near a prototype gun going through life-fire trials.

[Taranis]

6 minutes ago, Huba said:

As @Taranis mentioned, it explains the remote firing, I wouldn't like to stand near a prototype gun going through life-fire trials.

It can also just be the normal firing mode of the gun. I do not know. On the CAESAR the remoted control box was in fact used in the event of a firing incident by the battery's technical service which triggered the firing or the opening of the breech remotely for safety

[Haiduk]

1 minute ago, Taranis said:

Me too ! I didn't know this one. At first glance, it may not be an inertial navigation system (not sure). On the CAESAR it is a box which is on the left rear of the barrel and is protruding. The aiming system may not be automatic like on the CAESAR because I can see hydraulic pipes but no control computer and instead what seems to be a steering wheel. (on the left of the vehicle). This is all just guesswork.

Bohdana has automatic computer targeting, but in whole this system too raw. There was many criticism, that too much money was spent for this project with unclear future. 

Here trial firing about year ago

 

[chuckdyke]

Is this true?

https://au.yahoo.com/news/russian-warship-admiral-makarov-fire-110243454.html

[Taranis]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Bohdana has automatic computer targeting, but in whole this system too raw. There was many criticism, that too much money was spent for this project with unclear future. 

Here trial firing about year ago

 

I'm wrong on lots of things today .

[Haiduk]

Hm... Guy which 100 % should know either was the hit of frigate or not, wrote in own twitter "I will not comment this". Soooo.... Maybe later something will be clear. Maybe we can carefuly supose, that frigate could be attacked and got some damage, but didn't sink. 

I remind, first launch of Neptune as if took place at Admiral Essen frigate, before attack on Moskva. There was claimed frigat was damaged. Further Russian Telegram channels as RUMINT told frigate could shot down Neptune, but some missile fragments caused light damages. By the way Admiral Essen still in active service. UKR side officially didn't claim this attack and Russia also officially didn't recognized it. So all what happaned around this remained on the rumors level

PS. UKR General Staff made update of enemy losses and put +1 ship/boat. I don't know

Edited May 6, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Some frontine news.

Izium/Kharkiv: OPSEC silence. Just several videos of captured LPR conscripts and seized positions with destroyed vehciles in some forest place.

Zaporizhzhia direction: Russains after usual heavy preliminary bombardment with artillery, tried to breakthhrough our positions in Poltavka - Malynivka area. Attack was repelled. Russians again "switched on" artilery and aviation.

Luhansk oblast. According to some rumors, Russia is going to curtail own offensive on Izium - Sloviansk axis and all efforts will be targeted to complete "liberation" of Luhansk oblast (capturing of Popasna, Rubizhne, Siverodonetsk, Lysychansk and coming to estern bank of Siverskyi Donets river with capturing of Lyman) and Azovstal. Igor Strelkov wrote as if new wave of offensive had to be launced today at 5:00, but reports in present time showed usual enemy activity. Though yesterday was information 40 tanks drove to Severodonetsk direction

Azovstal. 500 civilians were evacuated. During this evacuation fighting was stopped, but Russians hit with ATGM the car with UKR soldiers, which drove to next shelter to take civilians out there - 1 KIA, 6 WIA. Now there is no assaults, but skirmishes continuing    

Edited May 6, 2022 by Haiduk