How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, benpark said:

I was just reading an account of what was happening in Rubizhne from the Russian perspective.

This is not regular Russian trooper. He is volunteer, which fought either in composition of LPR "regular" unit or in composition of new-formed infantry regiment of conscripts. 

Edited April 28, 2022 by Haiduk

[The_MonkeyKing]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Egads.  Sending Command Post versions made sense to me.  This?  Definitely not.  These things are not survivable on today's battlefield, they are old, parts are going to quickly be a problem, and Ukraine has zero experience with them.  There is no future benefit as this things will be melted down for beer cans as soon as something better comes up.

Anybody that was arguing that Marders were dumb to send over need to put that thought in perspective.

Steve

I don't know. Capability of tracked light armored infantry carriers is fulfilled with M113. Tracked battle taxi to enable infantry mobility.

Finland for example is still happy with the good old MTLB. And M113A2/3 is surely way superior to these old ****s.

Also Ukraine has a lot of troops. These might very well go to militia battalions that for big part lack armored transport.

[TheVulture]

Bridge destroyed near Melitopol (about 10 miles SW). By the looks of it, a railway bridge. If that's right, it looks like one of the two railway lines out of Crimea is out of action (one line from Crimea runs NW to Kherson, and this one runs NE through Melitopol towards all the front lines in the 'land bridge' area).

https://t.me/dvish_alive/13099

Edited April 28, 2022 by TheVulture

[The_MonkeyKing]

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/answering-call-heavy-weaponry-supplied.html

just updated

[LongLeftFlank]

4 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

...it's much more of an open country fight here southwest of Izyum.

 

Yet more timely geolocated videos from 'Dan' regarding the fluid combat zone SW of Izium.

2 weeks per village. Yeah, Rokossovski is  proud of you, boychiks....

 

 

 

[The_Capt]

10 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Shouldn't all you guys be over on an "Eastern Front" / A3R gaming channel or something? You are all SOOOO macro.  China real estate, FFS??? This thread is a bloody bag of cats.

....Am I the only guy here still studying this thing at CM scale, where this war is actually being decided? The realtime analysis is out there, go find it.

I have a day job I'm neglecting. 

[/peptalk]

One thing this thread has taught me is that we need both, macro and micro analysis and assessment.  Keeping a macro-only view misses important details "at the CM level" that when spread across the battlespace have macro effects (e.g. effect of UA tactical actions on friction).

Keeping a micro-only view leads to what we used to call "scope eye" and/or over-magnification of CM level phenomenon that do not scale up well and can also lead to erroneous conclusions.  Example, I am seeing a lot of "Russians are Advancing with new momentum!!" all over mainstream media.  This phase of the war seems more intense, likely because it is largely "happening" on a smaller scale and we are seeing it happen more closely.  I have no doubt there is some very intense combat occurring, maybe even the most intense of the war but that does not immediately lead to the macro implications floating around the info-sphere.

This war started on 24 Feb and by 9 Mar, so about 14 days in and the Russian invasion was roughly looking like this:

This one is from Al Jazeera, but there a lot out there.  If you look at the long axis of advances:

Kyiv - approx 100kms

Sumy - approx 250km

Kherson - approx 200km

And a lot of heavy fighting across the entire country. We knew from a micro-level view that something was going on because we had very wide sample data streaming in from all over the place.  From this we were able to make some pretty accurate deductions and conclusions about this war, well ahead of mainstream.

So we are about 12 days into the current Great Russian Offensive and it looks about like this:

Plus some back and forth north of Kherson and stuff spontaneously blowing up in Russia.

So those "new momentum" advances, that look very intense at a CM scale, are about 20-30kms...in 12 days.  That is an average of about 2.5km per day (the range of a Javelin).  At the current rate of advance the Russians should be able to "snap shut" that Ukrainian Falaise Gap in about 40 days.  This is assuming that our analysis of the actual Russian force strengths in those axis were way off.  A the current burn rate of 0.5-1 BTG per day, the Russian Donbas liberation force of 75 BTG should be hitting 10% eroded about now, and another 40 days it will be down another 20 BTGs, so over a third of its force, worse at the coal face units on those axis of advance.  This is assuming that the battlefield remains linear, the UA is getting more and better equipment and has time to throw more units in, while we know Russia is acting like it is licking the bottom of the jar.  Conversely Ukrainian defence could buckle but Russian logistics are still a limiting factor here, so I would not expect a massive "bagging" of Ukrainian forces as they will have time to pull back, or like they did in the North around the Sumy axis, simply fight surrounded. 

So here micro can be misleading and macro needs to offset - the exact opposite of where we were in early March.

Edited April 28, 2022 by The_Capt

[mosuri]

3 hours ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

 The end of tanks IS neigh, our prophet has foretold it!

Are we getting cavalry back?

Sorry, couldn't resist

[The_Capt]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

WTF?  You mean I've been paying to have 50-60 year old vehicles sitting around under cover and, presumably, undergoing routine sustainment maintenance?  I am going to write my Senator

I wonder how many NG units still have these things sitting around? (Googles...).  Yup, there's more of the little buggers tucked away for sure:

 

Egads.  Sending Command Post versions made sense to me.  This?  Definitely not.  These things are not survivable on today's battlefield, they are old, parts are going to quickly be a problem, and Ukraine has zero experience with them.  There is no future benefit as this things will be melted down for beer cans as soon as something better comes up.

Anybody that was arguing that Marders were dumb to send over need to put that thought in perspective.

Steve

Ok, everyone note, this is where Tha Capt and Steve disagree, was bound to happen.  First off, show respect for the venerable "lunch-box war" as it has seen more action that just about any other carrier (I know, the BTR, blah blah).  She still has legs and can still get some jobs done.

I would not take her directly into battle as all those chain guns will cut her up but lets not forget the more elegant features of this grand dame:

- Simple, simple, simple.  You can literally teach a junior officer to drive one in an afternoon, from experience.

- Relatively easy maintenance.  Not as easy as wheeled but very simple analog systems onboard that can be done by driver and crew.

- Modular.  You can literally stick anything on this thing, so it can fulfill a lot of different roles.

- Mobile.  People would not believe where this thing can go but this little beetle has great battlefield mobility.

- Elegance.  You can't stop staring at those elegant lines.  She is built like a German milk maid...seriously I need a minute. 

So poo-poo all you want Steve, the M113 is one of the finest vehicles to ever grace the battlefield - to know her is to love her. 

[LongLeftFlank]

38 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

One thing this thread has taught me is that we need both, macro and micro analysis and assessment.  Keeping a macro-only view misses important details "at the CM level" that when spread across the battlespace have macro effects (e.g. effect of UA tactical actions on friction).

Keeping a micro-only view leads to what we used to call "scope eye" and/or over-magnification of CM level phenomenon that do not scale up well and can also lead to erroneous conclusions.  Example, I am seeing a lot of "Russians are Advancing with new momentum!!" all over mainstream media.  This phase of the war seems more intense....

So we are about 12 days into the current Great Russian Offensive and it looks about like this...  At the current rate of advance the Russians should be able to "snap shut" that Ukrainian Falaise Gap in about 40 days....

So here micro can be misleading and macro needs to offset - the exact opposite of where we were in early March.

Fair enough, Cap'n!  I just blew a gasket when everything on here for pages on end seemed to be going onto a dumbell between Putin's favourite colour (macro) and which 'grave for seven brothers sux worse' (micro).

Oh, and never forget: Russians = orcs.

I'll confess to being overly fond of maps (at an echelon+ down from the Big Maps with the Big Arrows). But after being drawn into closer scrutiny of the meandering (and boggy as hell) topography of the Seversky Donets, I stumbled across those photos of Svyatohirsk and the massif behind it. And the caves.

And then I had a Holy (Gregorian) Sh*te moment... terrain-wise, for the Russians, up to now this has been the EASY bit!!!!!

EDIT: Oh, and here's another map.  All those river valleys cut up the steppe, quite significantly in spots (in other words, besides obstacles there's elevation, and elevation means overwatch, as we CMers have all learnt the hard way).

 

Edited April 28, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Fair enough, Cap'n!  I just blew a gasket when everything on here for pages on end seemed to be going onto a dumbell between Putin's favourite colour (macro) and which 'grave for seven brothers sux worse' (micro).

Oh, and never forget: Russians = orcs.

I'll confess to being overly fond of maps (at an echelon+ down from the Big Maps with the Big Arrows). But after being drawn into closer scrutiny of the meandering (and boggy as hell) topography of the Severinsky Donets, I stumbled across those photos of Severyinsk and the massif behind it.

And then I had a Holy (Gregorian) Sh*te moment... terrain-wise, for the Russians, this has been the EASY bit!!!!!

 

I need to do a MSFS flyover around Lyman, terrain wise that look like and attackers nightmare.  I honestly expect the Russian advances to bog down at Slovyanks.  They might try a bypass from the northern axis but my money is on the Great Russian Donbas offensive grinding to halt on the outskirts of that town.

[AlsatianFelix]

43 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Bridge destroyed near Melitopol (about 10 miles SW). By the looks of it, a railway bridge. If that's right, it looks like one of the two railway lines out of Crimea is out of action (one line from Crimea runs NW to Kherson, and this one runs NE through Melitopol towards all the front lines in the 'land bridge' area).

https://t.me/dvish_alive/13099

I'm hopeful that this and recent Ukrainian advances in Huliaipole are setting the table for a large scale counter attack aimed towards Melitopol. I would think Ukraine would have the advantage in supply and air assets on this front. Perhaps enough to allow for a concentrated mechanized force over dried terrain. If would force Russia to create new defensive fronts to defend Kherson and Berdyansk and bisect the premise of Novorossiya.

[TheVulture]

7 minutes ago, AlsatianFelix said:

I'm hopeful that this and recent Ukrainian advances in Huliaipole are setting the table for a large scale counter attack aimed towards Melitopol. I would think Ukraine would have the advantage in supply and air assets on this front. Perhaps enough to allow for a concentrated mechanized force over dried terrain. If would force Russia to create new defensive fronts to defend Kherson and Berdyansk and bisect the premise of Novorossiya.

There's logic to your thinking. Taking out a bridge isn't a permanent thing - they can be rebuild and repaired if the engineering facilities are available. So taking out a bridge buys you a window of opportunity where transport and logistics get interrupted, until alternative routes are established or the bridge is back in action.

Which suggests it there is a chance that it is something you do when it would have a good effect (assuming you have the chance to be choosy about timings). Either to undercut a Russia attack, or prepare for one of your own.

[Kinophile]

May 9th will be Putin's open declaration of war, maybe 3ven v NATO, using the nostalgia and distorted narrative to justify mobilization and more overt aggression v. NATO.

He wants War, to unify and solidify his regime. In for a penny, in for a pound.

The arty-driven speed of advance and a BTG equivalent losses each day is "sustainable" for him. That pace regulates the wastage rate for now but  when UJR nato-izes it's artillery, he'll have real problems and even a defensive posture won't save him.I t'll jump to 2-3 btg-equiv a day.

This last mid season has seemed very mild. Not the quagmire we all hoped.

Edited April 28, 2022 by Kinophile

[dan/california]

 

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

May 9th will be Putin's open declaration of war, maybe 3ven v NATO, using the nostalgia and distorted narrative to justify mobilization and more overt aggression v. NATO.

He wants War, to unify and solidify his regime. In for a penny, in for a pound.

The arty-driven speed of advance and a BTG equivalent losses each day is "sustainable" for him. That pace regulates the wastage rate for now but  when UJR nato-izes it's artillery, he'll have real problems and even a defensive posture won't save him.I t'll jump to 2-3 btg-equiv a day.

This last mid season has seemed very mild. Not the quagmire we all hoped.

I am willing to believe he will declare on Ukraine on May 9th. He really doesn't have a choice short of giving up if the current conscript class just gives their officers the finger and starts walking home. If he is so deluded he wants to declare war on NATO my bet is he finally has that "heart attack", and the new guy starts trying to walk this all back by blaming everything on Putin. 

[The_MonkeyKing]

White House sends Congress $33B request for Ukraine:
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/28/ukraine-funding-request-congress-biden-00028552

"The Biden administration is asking Congress for a massive new $33 billion funding request to bolster Ukraine’s military as its war with Russia enters its ninth week, ensuring that Washington, and Europe, remain all in on beating back Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion."

 

Well, apparently Ukraine is getting the strongest land army in Europe, brought to you by uncle Sam.

[The_Capt]

6 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

White House sends Congress $33B request for Ukraine:
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/28/ukraine-funding-request-congress-biden-00028552

"The Biden administration is asking Congress for a massive new $33 billion funding request to bolster Ukraine’s military as its war with Russia enters its ninth week, ensuring that Washington, and Europe, remain all in on beating back Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion."

 

Well, apparently Ukraine is getting the strongest land army in Europe, brought to you by uncle Sam.

New Russian War Strategy:

[TheVulture]

And here are your daily air defense missile launches over Belgorod. Possible explanations:

• Ukraine is running  a lot of air sorties over Belgorod
• Hungry Russian air defense crews are hunting geese for food
• The town clock is broken so they use this to signal midday
• Russia is trying to make its population feel under threat

Answers on a postcard...

 

 

Edited April 28, 2022 by TheVulture

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, c3k said:

From the translation, 200's and 300's: It seems 200 is internal language for KIA/Dead. 300 would be WIA?

Yes.  IIRC this dates back to the war in Afghanistan when the Soviets were trying to keep casualties secret.  They called all dead transported back home as "Cargo 200" and wounded "Cargo 300".  Obviously everybody figured this out pretty quickly, so now it is just a euphemism.

(checks Wiki, confirms the above, then learns something new). 

"Cargo 100" is munitions.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargo_200_(code_name)

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Ok, everyone note, this is where Tha Capt and Steve disagree, was bound to happen. 

Well, you made up for it by using a meme from one of the best TV shows of all time, so we're already back on track

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

First off, show respect for the venerable "lunch-box war" as it has seen more action that just about any other carrier (I know, the BTR, blah blah).  She still has legs and can still get some jobs done.

I would not take her directly into battle as all those chain guns will cut her up but lets not forget the more elegant features of this grand dame:

Points taken.  I suppose if they use them as starters for some other functions, like munitions haulers, there could be some utility still there to be had.  But in terms of frontline infantry duty?  We seem to be in agreement that this isn't the right vehicle for the job.  Therefore, the question is... does Ukraine need frontline IFVs or some rearline delivery van?  If they need both, then fine we gave them one of the two.  But what of the other?

One thing I hope DOESN'T happen is some nation saying "oh, the US took care of the IFV issue so I guess they're all set now".

Steve

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

Well, you made up for it by using a meme from one of the best TV shows of all time, so we're already back on track

Points taken.  I suppose if they use them as starters for some other functions, like munitions haulers, there could be some utility still there to be had.  But in terms of frontline infantry duty?  We seem to be in agreement that this isn't the right vehicle for the job.  Therefore, the question is... does Ukraine need frontline IFVs or some rearline delivery van?  If they need both, then fine we gave them one of the two.  But what of the other?

One thing I hope DOESN'T happen is some nation saying "oh, the US took care of the IFV issue so I guess they're all set now".

Steve

M113s are definitely not IFVs; however, IFVs seem right next to tanks and the "blowing up" list.  M113s can provide better protected battlefield mobility to support this hybrid-Light thing going on though.  More of a modern mounted light infantry approach, in getting these small fast moving ATGM/UAV teams around with protection and better cargo capacity.

You are correct that at some point in moving to the offence that the UA is going to need heavy metal with guns though and that will be IFVs.  But hey, we started this thing with helmets and vest, thru ATGM/MANPAD, some APCs, and now to arty (HIMARs?!).  At this rate Ukraine probably needs to start thinking about where to put the carrier group by end-May.

[Battlefront.com]

Article in The Economist.  Only partially through it, but as to be expected it is interesting:

https://www.economist.com/briefing/how-deep-does-the-rot-in-the-russian-army-go/21808989

Steve

[Edit - I thought it was written by Kofman, but he is just cited]

[DesertFox]

42 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

White House sends Congress $33B request for Ukraine:
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/28/ukraine-funding-request-congress-biden-00028552

"The Biden administration is asking Congress for a massive new $33 billion funding request to bolster Ukraine’s military as its war with Russia enters its ninth week, ensuring that Washington, and Europe, remain all in on beating back Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion."

 

Well, apparently Ukraine is getting the strongest land army in Europe, brought to you by uncle Sam.

Excellent News! Ukraine needs it. It ain´t over yet.

 

 

[Der Zeitgeist]

Great TIME article here about Zelensky and his wartime goverment leadership. Fascinating insights into the first days of the war in Kyiv and the daily walk of life in the presidential compound.

https://time.com/6171277/volodymyr-zelensky-interview-ukraine-war/

[TheVulture]

5 hours ago, panzermartin said:

FT claims companies In Germany, Austria, Italy and Hungary have decided to go ahead an pay russian gas in rubles. 

It's behind pay wall and not sure how accurate this is. 

The European Comission apparently believes it and has warned the companies that if they do so they might face punishment for breaking sanctions:

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/042722-ec-president-warns-of-high-risk-for-companies-agreeing-to-russian-gas-payment-demands

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned April 27 of the "high risk" to EU companies that agree to new Russian gas payment demands, which she said were in breach of EU sanctions.

 

"To pay in rubles -- if this is not foreseen in the contract -- is a breach of our sanctions. We have about 97% of all contracts that explicitly stipulate payments in euros or dollars," she said.

"The request from the Russian side to pay in rubles is a unilateral decision and not according to the contracts," she said.

"Companies with such contracts should not accede to the Russian demands. This would be a breach of the sanctions, so a high risk for the companies."

...

Von der Leyen was responding to a question related to reports that 10 European companies had already agreed to the new Russian payment system and that four companies had already paid according to the new decree.

[FancyCat]

There is a lot of reasons to show that Russia is actually fighting against NATO. One, gives Putin a escape for why the Russian military is getting trashed vs inferior Ukraine. Two, when Russia gets defeated, the defeat will go down easier than Russians realizing their former imperial subject is a fighter in their own right.

That is why it's important for Ukraine to take the lead in peace talks, and for NATO to refrain from great power negotiations that may or may not sacrifice Ukraine's agency as the U.S and Russia hash it out with Ukraine on a map.

It may be easier for Russians to accept being defeated by NATO than Ukraine, and certainly that would mean more likelihood Putin keeps his head. Something else to add, as long as Russia has nukes, external overthrow cannot occur, only internally can the Russian state be changed. A former imperial subject dictating peace terms is a major humiliation vs a great power clash. 

Putin will seek to expand conflict to NATO more overtly, if nothing else than to force a great power peace conference where Ukraine is not the one sitting at the other end of the very long table.

In that sense, the restrain shown by Biden and NATO is well suited for opposing Putin.