How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Chibot Mk IX]

53 minutes ago, db_zero said:

On paper the Leopard1s appear hopelessly outdated and of limited use, but so were the Sherman’s used by the Israelis up until the 70s.

The people manning them mattered more than the specs on paper.

Don't know if L1A5's gunner thermal sights are still in good condition or not. If they still works then it can be a huge bonus to the UA. 

[Kinophile]

5 minutes ago, Huba said:

 

3. Ukrainians explicitly asked for Leo1 from German stock, I'd think that we might just listen to them on this.

Yes, but why? They face all.the distracting items we've noted. And what's the point of a tank that can't fight the enemy tanks?

Is it more of a  bargaining strategy? "Ask for 10 candies but you'd really be happy with 6"? Put leos in the conversation, get denied and shame them into giving you want you really want?

Edited April 19, 2022 by Kinophile

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, db_zero said:

If we took the ones in storage in the US they would have to be railed to ports then loaded onto ships. That would take months. Airlifting them is hugely inefficient and the airlift capacity is probably already stretched.

Up to 2 weeks for ship to arrive to Gdańsk from Houston, less from East Coast. 1 Day rail transport to UA  border. Refitting those tanks after taking them out of storage would probably consume the most time, plus training the crews.

Setting up logistical base, repair shops etc in eastern Poland can be done in parallel to these activities I think.

[Armorgunner]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Slovakian artist Rado Javor, illustrator of Total War games series issiued two new artworks about the war in Ukraine. Recently he has drew series "seasons in Ukraine" about war of 2014-2015.

Seasons:

Spring in Ukraine (fighting around Sloviansk)

Summer in Ukraine (Ukrainian July offensive)

Autumn in Ukraine

Winter in Ukraine (Donetsk airport)

Also two other artworks

Sunflower fields (tank ram of sen.lt Abramovych 12th of August 2014)

Winter war (campaign of winter 2015)

And new arts:

The general

Moskva

More his arts on history, military, game, sci-fi tematics you can find here: https://www.deviantart.com/radojavor

Perfect Background on my desktop. One for each day of the week, and one in strategic reserv!

Edited April 19, 2022 by Armorgunner

[Huba]

1 minute ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

On that front, we're expecting a press statement from Chancellor Scholz at 18:00.

Not sure if he's capitulating to Russia, resigning, or sending the entire Bundeswehr stock of Panzers, but something is happening. 

Capitulation seems reasonable. You give away all your weapons straight away (Poland will take them and transfer to Ukraine for you). Russia can get Germany if they are able to drive there 

[db_zero]

1 minute ago, Huba said:

Up to 2 weeks for ship to arrive to Gdańsk from Houston, less from East Coast. 1 Day rail transport to UA  border. Refitting those tanks after taking them out of storage would probably consume the most time, plus training the crews.

Setting up logistical base, repair shops etc in eastern Poland can be done in parallel to these activities I think.

Setting up logistical and repair shops in Poland invites Russian attacks.

[Huba]

Just now, db_zero said:

Setting up logistical and repair shops in Poland invites Russian attacks.

As is landing transport planes there or doing the whole weapons transfer thing. We are past worrying about it really.

[Chibot Mk IX]

In a fast paced society, we can look into something happened two month ago and call this a history study

I don’t see anyone mention this.

Росія планувала захоплення України під виглядом стратегічних військових навчань (gur.gov.ua)

https://gur.gov.ua/content/rosiia-planuvala-zakhoplennia-ukrainy-pid-vyhliadom-stratehichnykh-viiskovykh-navchan.html

The captured order was issued from 1^st Gds Tank Army to ind. 96^th reconnaissance brigade on Feb 23^rd evening.

With a google translation I can see that Russian Army, at least at Army HQ level, did not underestimate the Ukr force’s war preparation. However as we can see, in the end whole operation become a big failure. What happened? Guess we won’t have a clear answer for next couple months and we will have a lot of debate on root of cause.

 

A military blogger/twitter made some comment based on this captured order.

https://twitter.com/partizan_oleg/status/1515244184894017538

Before the war , no one will believe that a Tank Army stopped cold by 1 Ukr regular BTG and 2 TDF btns

https://twitter.com/partizan_oleg/status/1515255853586083842

Another incredible defense happens outside 1^st Gds Tk Army’s AOR,  Hlukhiv-Konotop-Nizhyn axis. On the paper RA has tremendous fire power advantage there. The 2^nd CAA assigned three Brigades in this axis, they are facing Ukr side’s 1 x Mot. Inf Btn + 2 x TDF Btns + some militia force. 122mm is the largest caliber artillery in defender’s arsenal. Good road condition and relatively open terrain should make this task a piece of cake.  In the end RA decided to bypass Hlukhiv and Nizhyn and paid a high price for this decision. Ukr infantry’s attack on supply convey killed 2^nd CAA’s mobility.

 

[db_zero]

4 minutes ago, Huba said:

As is landing transport planes there or doing the whole weapons transfer thing. We are past worrying about it really.

Sounds like splitting hairs but sending planes and setting up a base are 2 different things.

Like it or not one of the main goals is avoiding a larger expanded conflict and nukes being used.

This is still a proxy war. The last thing the West needs or wants is a general Russia-NATO war.

Edited April 19, 2022 by db_zero

[Battlefront.com]

20 minutes ago, db_zero said:

M1 tanks would pose some tricky political and logistical challenges. I think the calculation is it would be seen as a major escalation by Russia who already complained about the last arms shipment and a complete slaughter of the Russian army which the M1 could facilitate could lead to nukes being used.

This is where I think NATO needs to call Putin's bluff.  Remember, EVERYTHING that is being done to Russia now was threatened with nukes, including removing Russia from SWIFT.

What the West has done so far is an incremental pushing beyond whatever Russia's red line is.  This is the same thing that Putin has done to the West for 20+ years.  And guess what?  It works.

Plus, if all goes well Russia will be knocked out of the war before this sort of Abrams line crossing thing really matters.

20 minutes ago, db_zero said:

Aside from the logistical challenges of fuel-which the M1 uses in prodigious quantity and ammo which is heavy and bulky, where would they come from in large quantities?

Anything non-Soviet is going to require pretty much a total infrastructure investment by the West, so might as well not waste time trying to gear Ukraine up to maintain something 60 years old and instead spend just about the same energy to support true frontline systems.

20 minutes ago, db_zero said:

If we took the ones in storage in the US they would have to be railed to ports then loaded onto ships. That would take months. Airlifting them is hugely inefficient and the airlift capacity is probably already stretched.

Again, refer to my two categories.  Category 1 is something that is short term, Category 2 is something that is longer term.  ANY form of ANY tank that is not Soviet based is Category 2.

For Abrams, I'd take some out of the European forward deployed stocks and get Ukrainian crews training on them while their real mounts get loaded up and sent over from the US.

Steve

[db_zero]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is where I think NATO needs to call Putin's bluff.  Remember, EVERYTHING that is being done to Russia now was threatened with nukes, including removing Russia from SWIFT.

What the West has done so far is an incremental pushing beyond whatever Russia's red line is.  This is the same thing that Putin has done to the West for 20+ years.  And guess what?  It works.

Plus, if all goes well Russia will be knocked out of the war before this sort of Abrams line crossing thing really matters.

Anything non-Soviet is going to require pretty much a total infrastructure investment by the West, so might as well not waste time trying to gear Ukraine up to maintain something 60 years old and instead spend just about the same energy to support true frontline systems.

Again, refer to my two categories.  Category 1 is something that is short term, Category 2 is something that is longer term.  ANY form of ANY tank that is not Soviet based is Category 2.

For Abrams, I'd take some out of the forward deployed stocks and get Ukrainian crews training on them while the ones for them to use are got over in theater.

Steve

This is still a proxy war not a general Russia-NATO war. Russia would never stand up to a general NATO-Russia conventional conflict. That leaves nukes.

The general belief is Putin is crazy enough to resort to nukes. 
 

Calling nuclear bluffs is something policy makers need to consider carefully. Keep in mind before Russia actually invaded Putin was considered bluffing by many.
 

We also have other NATO partners who might object to sending arms that are considered an escalation. NATO is united and this could fracture it. Any war would be fought on their territory. There seems to be different levels of willingness to confront Russia directly and risk actual conflict.

Edited April 19, 2022 by db_zero

[Kinophile]

I've heard rumours from Polish relatives that Polish T72s are going on "exercise" and not returning, or simply going "missing", getting "stolen" and "somehow" turning up in Ukraine.

Tbh sounds like wishful thinking but in the same breath, I could totally see it happening also.

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, db_zero said:

This is still a proxy war not a general Russia-NATO war. Russia would never stand up to a general NATO-Russia conventional conflict. That leaves nukes.

Wrong.  Russia is already characterizing this as a Russia-NATO war.  In fact, it was one of their primary stated reasons for going to war over Ukraine.

Russia just last week sent a formal letter warning the US to stop sending things to Ukraine.  It's made similar statements to European countries.

Plus, Javelins were sent over a while ago and it even warranted mention by Shoigu (I think it was him) in some of his rants right before the war started.  And since then what has happened?  THOUSANDS of ATGMs have been sent from a dozen countries.  And Russia knows how effective that has been in helping defeat it's attacks.  And yet, no nukes.

Add to that the massive economic sanctions placed on Russia by the world.  This is not a proxy war by any reasonable definition of the term.

7 minutes ago, db_zero said:

The general belief is Putin is crazy enough to resort to nukes.

If he is that crazy then he'll use them with or without Abrams on the way.

7 minutes ago, db_zero said:

Calling nuclear bluffs is something policy makers need to consider carefully. 

Sure, and I am one of those who repeatedly says that is the reason why we shouldn't have NATO aircraft laying Russian' forces waste in and around Mariupol or elsewhere.  THAT is *NOT* an incremental move over Russia's redlines and it would definitely risk a nuclear response.  Sending better tanks vs. crappy tanks is not in the same category.

Steve

[TheVulture]

https://geopoliticalfutures.com/the-world-and-a-small-war/

Interesting article on general realignment in the world as a consequence of the war. Short version: the author predicts that the US will move to a defence alignment with Poland similar to how it used to have with West Germany during the cold war, since the US and Poland now share a common understanding of the Russian threats to their interest. Similarly Turkey, to a lesser degree. While Germany and France are being seen as less reliable partners

He's also written a lot in recent years about new strategic partnerships superceding NATO, such as the Quad to contain China, or the 'inter-marium' of the Baltic states, Poland, Romania and Ukraine having a common interest in defending against Russia (with US support). We can possibly chalk Finland in to that too. Previously this was viewed in the context (of the last few years) of NATO becoming obsolete, and what would replace it. Which still might be the case, depending on how seriously western Europe continues to view this.

[Huba]

8 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

I've heard rumours from Polish relatives that Polish T72s are going on "exercise" and not returning, or simply going "missing", getting "stolen" and "somehow" turning up in Ukraine.

Tbh sounds like wishful thinking but in the same breath, I could totally see it happening also.

Over 100 T-72M1R (with thermals, but  not upgraded apart from that) has disappeared from magazines. Police has no clues so far. It was reported about a week ago, right now thieves might've taken them anywhere, including Donbas. Same mysterious group has stolen a battalion worth of 2S1, some BM-21s and is continuously siphoning various artillery ammo. There will be a special investigation into this after the summer break I hear.

 

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Again, refer to my two categories.  Category 1 is something that is short term, Category 2 is something that is longer term.  ANY form of ANY tank that is not Soviet based is Category 2.

For Abrams, I'd take some out of the European forward deployed stocks and get Ukrainian crews training on them while their real mounts get loaded up and sent over from the US.

I'd argue that if there weren't the political shenanigans, that 100 Leo1 could be a kind of interim help, that would be about to enter combat in few weeks, considerably earlier then M1. Even if all are taken out or break, this would still add some value, until the M1s arrive. Treat them as a disposable asset really, or just put them back on train to Germany for repairs and refit at some point.

Anyway, I'm waiting for Scholz's announcement, let's see what PzH2000 in it's natural habitat can do finally

Edited April 19, 2022 by Huba

[db_zero]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Wrong.  Russia is already characterizing this as a Russia-NATO war.  In fact, it was one of their primary stated reasons for going to war over Ukraine.

Russia just last week sent a formal letter warning the US to stop sending things to Ukraine.  It's made similar statements to European countries.

Plus, Javelins were sent over a while ago and it even warranted mention by Shoigu (I think it was him) in some of his rants right before the war started.  And since then what has happened?  THOUSANDS of ATGMs have been sent from a dozen countries.  And Russia knows how effective that has been in helping defeat it's attacks.  And yet, no nukes.

If he is that crazy then he'll use them with or without Abrams on the way.

Sure, and I am one of those who repeatedly says that is the reason why we shouldn't have NATO aircraft laying Russian' forces waste in and around Mariupol or elsewhere.  THAT is *NOT* an incremental move over Russia's redlines and it would definitely risk a nuclear response.  Sending better tanks vs. crappy tanks is not in the same category.

Steve

I highly doubt we’ll see M1s sent soon. The strategy is to slowly turn up the heat and kill the frog slowly…

[mosuri]

8 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

The NATO membership application will be send in the next 1-2 weeks.

I truly hope so (together with certain leftovers from 70s have a collective stroke out of sheer frustration) but it's not done until it's done.

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

I've heard rumours from Polish relatives that Polish T72s are going on "exercise" and not returning, or simply going "missing", getting "stolen" and "somehow" turning up in Ukraine.

Hey, all the separatists in Donbas got all of their Russian military hardware from Ukraine, despite them never having it, or off of eBay.  So Putin of all people knows that things sometimes happen

7 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Tbh sounds like wishful thinking but in the same breath, I could totally see it happening also.

I have a feeling that the tanks are going over sooner or later, perhaps already.  They will need to be moved over carefully and singularly to avoid giving Russia any juicy targets to hit.  Er, if they could even hit them that is.

Steve

[The_MonkeyKing]

53 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

For the second category I think there should be no talk of outdated weaponry.  Leo 1s shouldn't even be discussed, Abrams should be.  Why Abrams?  Because the US has plenty of them in stock, they are a proven system, and it seems they tend to beat out the competition when evaluated by militaries (Poland didn't just buy a whole bunch of Leo2s, for example).  Sure, the most up-to-date variants don't have to be sent over as any M1 still running is better than what Russia has and can be upgraded later.

Agreed, Abrams would be the best. I just don't have faith to see that happening. Aand no other A-class options without years long order times.

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, db_zero said:

I highly doubt we’ll see M1s sent soon. The strategy is to slowly turn up the heat and kill the frog slowly…

As they are in Category 2 (as I put it), I don't either.  Nor Leos if they were selected.  That's just the point, no non-Soviet type tank is going to show up in this fight any time soon.  None.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

BTW, I am surprised nobody pointed out that the M113s that seem to be on the way to Ukraine are most likely M577 Command Posts, not AFVs for infantry:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M577_Command_Post_Carrier

At least that is the most logical type to send over and it was also seen on the rail cars with the M109s.

Steve

[Huba]

8 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

https://geopoliticalfutures.com/the-world-and-a-small-war/

Interesting article on general realignment in the world as a consequence of the war. Short version: the author predicts that the US will move to a defence alignment with Poland similar to how it used to have with West Germany during the cold war, since the US and Poland now share a common understanding of the Russian threats to their interest. Similarly Turkey, to a lesser degree. While Germany and France are being seen as less reliable partners

He's also written a lot in recent years about new strategic partnerships superceding NATO, such as the Quad to contain China, or the 'inter-marium' of the Baltic states, Poland, Romania and Ukraine having a common interest in defending against Russia (with US support). We can possibly chalk Finland in to that too. Previously this was viewed in the context (of the last few years) of NATO becoming obsolete, and what would replace it. Which still might be the case, depending on how seriously western Europe continues to view this.

I would be very careful about such precise predictions regarding the eastern Europe situation after this war, as there are really too many variables that can go many ways. What will happen in Belarus? What will be the status of Moldova and Georgia? Is Ukraine allowed to join NATO after the peace treaty? Those are fundamental questions, until we know I is just smoke and mirrors.

[Armorgunner]

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Hey, all the separatists in Donbas got all of their Russian military hardware from Ukraine, despite them never having it, or off of eBay.  So Putin of all people knows that things sometimes happen

+100 on that one 

[Battlefront.com]

Romania is sending something to Ukraine, not sure what.  I'm hoping Soviet caliber ammo:

https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/825450.html

Steve

[The_Capt]

42 minutes ago, db_zero said:

The Ukrainians have already been supplied with C4ISR before the conflict started. It’s just not been heavily publicized.

NATO has already stated they are providing Ukraine with info and intelligence and the C4ISR systems are designed to integrate with existing NATO assets.

Thats why the public announcement by NATO followed by the sinking of the Moskva the next day was interesting. The sea is a big space and finding a large ship isn’t an easy task.

It was known NATO was feeding intel and information but perhaps after the revelations of atrocities, more info got fed and the whole announcement and sinking of Moskva was also sending a message. 

I have no doubt there has been info sharing, I would hope it extends beyond NATO level by now.  It should be past 5EYES for some stuff.  No point in holding back now.