How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_MonkeyKing]

10 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

He quotes 6 weeks for training the crew. Then spare parts and training maintenance personnel we look at three months. The time Ukraine needs to have a victory. 

This war might very well drag on for a couple of years. Contingency plans and options that enable Ukraine to win in these scenarios need to start moving now. If this would have started right away we would almost already be there now.

Already trained tank crew can switch equipment faster than "green crew". Training should take a month max. Lots of the maintenance could be done with western private contractors, especially in the "transition period".

[chuckdyke]

12 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Already trained tank crew can switch equipment faster than "green crew".

Michael Wittman Normandy campaign died 8 August 1944. He survived for two months of the Normandy campaign. Elite crew in a superior tank. I feel sorry for the boys in the Donbas training will be an ongoing business and they need tanks in which the crew has a decent chance to survive. 

[Huba]

In the meantime Zelenskys' aviser shed some light on the ongoing operations. According to him Russians didn't take Kreminna yet, no mention of Zarichne at all. He confirms the push at Sloviansk from Izium.

https://odessa-journal.com/arestovich-four-tasks-of-the-russians-in-the-new-offensive-in-ukraine/

[Huba]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

For those of you who are still puzzling over Putin's screw up to invade Ukraine, I found this very good summary of really how badly played this was.  It's a good discussion generally, but I have it queued up to this specific point:

"Here's the irony, up to the point when the first tank crossed the border, Putin was winning".  The speaker, Mark Galeotti, then goes on to outline why.  This is why so many, myself included, were so surprised that he started the war.

Steve

Can't +1 it, so I'll just say that it is really great. I had no idea Putin is the kind of guy who doesn't have a smartphone cause he's afraid of CIA o_O

[TheVulture]

Russia reporting 3 people injured (with pictures of destroyed houses) due to 'shelling' in Golovchino, western Belgorod region. That's about 20 km from the border with Ukraine. Not impossible I suppose, but I'd have though that any Ukrainian artillery capable of firing > 20 km would have better things to do right now than lobbing a few shells at non-military targets just to be annoying.

 

[JonS]

1 hour ago, chuckdyke said:

. I always look at Austria Hungary empire, at least the average Austrian is [b]better off than they were hundred years ago.[/b]

But since the same can be said for literally every other citizen of Europe, what relevant point do you imagine you're making by singling out the Austrians?

[chuckdyke]

11 minutes ago, JonS said:

you're making by singling out the Austrians?

A hundred years ago a superpower, a madman eighty years ago came from there also. Just saying it has changed for the better. 

[JonS]

3 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

. So my view is M113 and Leo1 should become the main weapons of the Ukrainian military..

Mike? Mike Sparks? Is that you buddy? Where have you been!?

[JonS]

14 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

A hundred years ago a superpower, a madman eighty years ago came from there also. Just saying it has changed for the better. 

Literally. Every. Citizen. In. Europe.

Whether their country was ever part of the AH empire is utterly irrelevant.

[chuckdyke]

1 minute ago, JonS said:

Whether their country was ever part of the AH empire is utterly irrelevant.

Where I was born was also part of it. For five years during WW2 an Austrian governed it at least he was hanged for it. Nothing against Austrians I like their culture. 

[The_MonkeyKing]

7 minutes ago, JonS said:

Mike? Mike Sparks? Is that you buddy? Where have you been!?

"So my view is M113 and Leo1 should become the main weapons of the Ukrainian military.."

Well, that line sounds bad taken out of context. haha

[chuckdyke]

1 minute ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

"So my view is M113 and Leo1 should become the main weapons of the Ukrainian military.."

Marders are better besides I think the best we can give them not hands me down. 

[TheVulture]

16 minutes ago, JonS said:

Mike? Mike Sparks? Is that you buddy? Where have you been!?

Just for future reference in this discussion, the Ukrainian for Gavin is Гевін.

[kraze]

34 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

A hundred years ago a superpower, a madman eighty years ago came from there also. Just saying it has changed for the better. 

It changed for the better because every european learned the lesson that aggressive expansion and especially killing other ethnicities is bad. And germans had it literally beat out of them. But russians have fully embraced nazi ideas in their own twisted way. Even if it's backwater nazism (can you imagine any german soldier looting worn panties?) - it's nazism still.

Because unlike germans - nobody has tried to punish them and instead rushed to feed their warmachine since 1991.

[chuckdyke]

2 minutes ago, kraze said:

can you imagine any german soldier looting worn panties

It was worse they looted bicycles

[Probus]

Can someone link me or show me what the front lines look like now in the East and what Ukraine is up against?  I am having trouble conceptualizing the front.

[TheVulture]

14 minutes ago, Probus said:

Can someone link me or show me what the front lines look like now in the East and what Ukraine is up against?  I am having trouble conceptualizing the front.

I don't know of anywhere that has up to date detail, https://www.uawardata.com/ is updated every few days (and there's a toggle on the left side to show approximate Russian BTG locations, although they are going to vary somewhat in combat effectiveness). Last updated 4 days ago now though, so it's not massively current, but BTGs aren't going to move around much in that time span on the front lines. No information on Ukrainian locations for security reasons.

https://liveuamap.com/ has much the same indication of who controls what territory - which is of debatable accuracy (in the early days of the war there was a much more useful map that indicated Russian controlled, Ukrainian controlled areas, and areas in which neither side was able to prevent the other operating, which I think was rather more informative. But I've unfortunately not seen any more recent version of that map). Liveuamap has the usual problems of accuracy, rumours, unverified informaion etc., but as a general picture, since you can look at the data for a particular day, it is possible to e.g. look at where fighting has been reported in the last day, 2 days, 4 days whatever and get a general sense of where fighitng is happening and which way it is moving.

ISW daily reports do a good job of pulling together the days events and trying to create a plausible, coherent picture. Yesterdays is at https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-18

Edited April 19, 2022 by TheVulture

[Haiduk]

6 hours ago, BlackMoria said:

Good video of night fighting.  Ukrainian forces unleashing hell on Russian attackers.  

https://imgur.com/gallery/1yl9rvP

 

This is old pre-war video from maneuvers

[Haiduk]

Clip of actions of Azov and police in Mariupol. After 2:20 just sounds and shot flashes of heavy fighting in the darkness

 

Edited April 19, 2022 by Haiduk

[c3k]

5 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

T64 has more punch and the Leo has inferior armour. The Leo will be suitable for defensive warfare. You look at two months before they become available. 

This.

The Leo1 is not a match for modern Russian tanks...unless it's able to ambush them (flank/rear).  It is more than a match for anything else out there. There's a reason why NATO stopped using the (otherwise excellent) L7: Russian frontal armor was designed to withstand it.  I don't think even the newest APFSDS for the L7 can penetrate the T72/T80/T90 glacis or turret front.

 

[Combatintman]

42 minutes ago, Probus said:

Can someone link me or show me what the front lines look like now in the East and what Ukraine is up against?  I am having trouble conceptualizing the front.

Here:

Jomini of the West (@JominiW) | nitter

or here:

UAWarData: Tracking the Russian invasion

 

 

[chuckdyke]

4 minutes ago, c3k said:

The Leo1 is not a match for modern Russian tanks.

Fire and maneuver are the role of the modern MBT. It is a sitting duck if it has no aircover. To fight other tanks is one of the roles but not the main role. If the Ukraine wants to gain the initiative, it needs to have air superiority. Not only have better tanks. 

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Fire and maneuver are the role of the modern MBT. It is a sitting duck if it has no aircover. To fight other tanks is one of the roles but not the main role. If the Ukraine wants to gain the initiative, it needs to have air superiority. Not only have better tanks. 

If it's possible the Leo1s should be send there, I see no reason to argue against it, Ukrainians will use them well I'm sure. It will be to late for the current battle, but might be just in time for the next one in 2 months.

Problem with Leo1 is mostly that there are not that many available so long-term it is not a solution at all.  In contrast, USA has 3700 (!) M1s in storage according to wiki. 

[chuckdyke]

3 minutes ago, Huba said:

USA has 3700

That is $16 Billion twenty times the current aid package. I can't see congress agreeing to that one. 

[c3k]

Re: The West supplying armaments to Ukraine.

I'm surprised and a bit disappointed that thus far only old stock is being considered (some exceptions, like ATGMs, LAWs, and Switchblades).  Those modern ATGMs are all useful for stopping active Russian movements, but not so much for rooting the Russians out of Ukraine.

Towed artillery does not seem to have a place on this battlefield. Yet, that's what the US is providing.

Old tanks? I understand the argument about training and support and timeliness. However, this war will not be a 6-week war (already past that), or a 12-week war. It is a war that will not stop until one side or both sides lose the will to continue it. Does anyone see Ukraine being satisfied with a solution less than 100% victory?  How about Putin? 

How long has the 2014 battle lasted? Yep...since 2014.

Planning NOW for the long term will ensure success at the soonest possible time. Pumas, CV90s, Leo 2s, Abrams, PzH2000, M109s, Patriots, MLRS, etc, need to be provided. Lend lease is a great model. 

Stopping the Russian advance is one thing. Pushing them back off of Ukraine's territory is a another.