How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, womble said:

And every day they take is a bonus for the UA, wouldn't you say? The Ukrainians are actually in a position to improve their deployments, in number, supply, equipment and positioning, which the Russians may well not be.

I am picturing small ATGM pre-sited and manned ambush sites at intervals along all the main the roads, along w IEDs.  THis on top of the dug in regular units and artillery.  Plus mobile groups in SUVs moving rapidly to any places the russians try to sneak through on unimproved or dirt roads. 

And it's supposed to rain 3 of the next 5 or 6 days. 

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Our military experts expect this offensive throughout a week +/- Russians hastly move to Ukraine new reinforcement from Far East - about 10 BTGs of 5th CAA, Eastern Military District. They should be the second echelone for development of success. But they are still in the way.

All what Russians do now in Izium area and in the area near Velyki Novosilky and Huliaypole on the south is just building up efforts, but not offensive itself yet. By opinion of our expetrs Russians will try to breakthrough to Lozova of Kharkiv oblast from Balakliya - Izium area on the north and to Pavlodar, Dnipropertrovsk oblast from Vasylivka - Huliaypole area. And this can be outer line of encirclement of JTO. Also Russians can try to make the second, inner line of encirclement of JTO from Izium to Barvinkove and from Velyka Novosilka to Dobropillia - Pokrovsk.

Thanks for that.  It is the obvious move for Russia.  Thankfully the Russian senior commanders do not appear to know about the German's Operation Zitadell that was fought not too far from the area.  Because if they did, they would maybe try to do something else.  Giving the defender time to reinforce forces along obvious attack paths is not generally a good thing, but especially if the attacking forces have a bad track record of attacking.

I think I know where the Slovak S-300 system is going

Steve

[danfrodo]

12 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Our military experts expect this offensive throughout a week +/- Russians hastly move to Ukraine new reinforcement from Far East - about 10 BTGs of 5th CAA, Eastern Military District. They should be the second echelone for development of success. But they are still in the way.

All what Russians do now in Izium area and in the area near Velyki Novosilky and Huliaypole on the south is just building up efforts, but not offensive itself yet. By opinion of our expetrs Russians will try to breakthrough to Lozova of Kharkiv oblast from Balakliya - Izium area on the north and to Pavlodar, Dnipropertrovsk oblast from Vasylivka - Huliaypole area. And this can be outer line of encirclement of JTO. Also Russians can try to make the second, inner line of encirclement of JTO from Izium to Barvinkove and from Velyka Novosilka to Dobropillia - Pokrovsk.

    

To close the inside pocket it looks like each pincer has to move 50-70km -- does that sound right?  The outer pocket would require ~100km for each.  Even if Russian broke through how are they supposed to protect their LOCs given the distance, lack of infantry, and the 'partisan' activities.  The roaming SUVs w ATGM teams would have a field day against the supply columns.  To counter this Russia needs to control at least 2 km either side of the road I would think.  How they gonna do that?  I hope RU does move its best remaining armored units up these roads in the usual way.  They'll be out of gas in a couple days.

And to stop these thrusts UKR doesn't need highly trained soldiers.  Just trained enough to know how to shoot and scoot w ATGMs.  Whereas RU new recruits have to be coordinated and have good leadership at multiple levels and know how to fight as part of a company sized unit.  I am betting on Ukraine for the next round, but I am still scared for them.

[sburke]

Ukraine Is Losing Several S-300 Anti-Air Launchers A Week. But It Still Has Hundreds Left. (msn.com)

[Haiduk]

9 minutes ago, sburke said:

Ukraine Is Losing Several S-300 Anti-Air Launchers A Week. But It Still Has Hundreds Left. (msn.com)

One Russian strike in eastern Ukraine in late March knocked out an entire Ukrainian S-300 battery

This is mistake of author. He saw that video was issued on 30th of March, but this battery (or even battalion) was wiped out in first day of the war east from Kharkiv. They even didn't have a time to deploy. 

Also he writes about 125 miles range zone for missiles, but we have Soviet-era S-300PS/PT with old missiles for 47 and 75 km only. Slovakian S-300PMU (slightly apgraded S-300PT for export has 75 km-range missiles)

Edited April 8, 2022 by Haiduk

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Haiduk]

Chech Republic made a statement they alredy two weeks have been supplying heavy combat vehicles to Ukraine - tanks, IFVs, howitzers, anti-aircraft means, ammunition. This can be T-72M1, BVP-1/2 (Chech-produсed BMP-1/2) and probably SP-howitzers "Dana" and Strela-10 SAMs - all what Chech Republic can give from own storages.

[DesertFox]

Seems like they took a thing or two out of that book to heart...

 

CAIN: Events: Text of Irish Republican Army (IRA) 'Green Book' (Book I and II) (ulster.ac.uk)

Provisional IRA Green Book - Volumes 1 and 2 : Provisional IRA : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive

[DesertFox]

 

 

[mosuri]

43 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Thanks for that.  It is the obvious move for Russia.  Thankfully the Russian senior commanders do not appear to know about the German's Operation Zitadell that was fought not too far from the area.  Because if they did, they would maybe try to do something else.  Giving the defender time to reinforce forces along obvious attack paths is not generally a good thing, but especially if the attacking forces have a bad track record of attacking.

I think I know where the Slovak S-300 system is going

Steve

In keeping with that Zitadelle theme, they should delay for a month or two just to get those Armatas to participate

[Kinophile]

23 hours ago, Kinophile said:

ALL

We need a Devil's Advocate/ 10th Man Rule here.

What if RUS plays this smart?

What happens if they gain a commander who plays to what strengths they have left? 

Well now.

Dvorno...dvvirnko... Dvornifo... Wait, no I've got now - Child Killer.

There. 

Edited April 8, 2022 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

7 minutes ago, mosuri said:

In keeping with that Zitadelle theme, they should delay for a month or two just to get those Armatas to participate

Man that delay instantly made me think of Kursk, also. How could it not? 

Maybe I was wrong, maybe WW2 IS the right reference.

It's like the worst re-enactment weekend ever.

Edited April 8, 2022 by Kinophile

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

I wonder if this is how his job interview went...

"Thank you for showing an interest for the new position of overall commander of Special Operations in Ukraine.  I see you have an impressive military career.  Recently you've commanded the 19th Motor Rifle Division, 5th Red Banner Army
, and Central Military District.  However, we are most interested in your command of our forces in Syria.  You were quite inventive in your approach to killing civilians and destroying infrastructure.  Would you say you enjoy this kind of work?"

"Da!"

"Well then!  That seems to be all we need to know.  You got the job if you want it."

"Just one question.  Can I conduct my operations well within the borders of Mother Russia?  As I understand it officers of my rank tend to retire early if they get into Ukraine."

"Oh yes, that is fine with us"

"Then I accept the position!"

"Great!  We'd have you start a month ago if we could, but today will have to do"

Steve

[sburke]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I wonder if this is how his job interview went...

"Thank you for showing an interest for the new position of overall commander of Special Operations in Ukraine.  I see you have an impressive military career.  Recently you've commanded the 19th Motor Rifle Division, 5th Red Banner Army
, and Central Military District.  However, we are most interested in your command of our forces in Syria.  You were quite inventive in your approach to killing civilians and destroying infrastructure.  Would you say you enjoy this kind of work?"

"Da!"

"Well then!  That seems to be all we need to know.  You got the job if you want it."

"Just one question.  Can I conduct my operations well within the borders of Mother Russia?  As I understand it officers of my rank tend to retire early if they get into Ukraine."

"Oh yes, that is fine with us"

"Then I accept the position!"

"Great!  We'd have you start a month ago if we could, but today will have to do"

Steve

The look on his face says "great, this sh1tshow is now mine?  Better check on the earliest flight to UAE before I end up in Lefertovo."

[Kinophile]

Ref the Green Book, it's smart to read it. Specific to NI in many parts but the high mobility, deep prep for ambushes is classic partisan. 

Interestingly, a lot of the original IRA had gained experience in the War of independence, v the British. The "auxiliaries", WW1 vets known as the Black and Tans, were the primary terrorizing formation used by the British. We have a very strong social memory of their brutality and atrocities, but it was nothing compared to WW2 stuff.

Still, Ireland is a small place and we remember. Two young men were executed by the Tans outside our family farm. We keep the marker clean and tidy, 100 years later. 

https://maps.app.goo.gl/zUcGD179iay23eMfA

When it came to a ceasefire in 21, I believe the IRA GHQ felt that if the war continued it was the civilians who would suffered the most as things were escalating very quickly. The Irish would still win, but a ceasefire would stop the terror campaign while giving the IRA time to rebuild/expand. Unlike the scumbag Russians, Britain was an actual democracy and, Churchill aside, respondent to public opinion, so a ceasefire was agreed.

There was talk in 2020/21 of commemorating the RIC, the British run Police force in Ireland. That went down in flames. Traitors aren't forgotten.

Not even a 100 years later.

Edited April 8, 2022 by Kinophile

[danfrodo]

So Russian murderers targeted train station filled w civilians, as has been reported here & elsewhere.  Does no one in Russia ever read a history book?  No one?  Killing civilians like this does not make the unoccupied portion of the population want to surrender, quite the opposite. 

[Kinophile]

6 hours ago, BletchleyGeek said:

Some points of comparison which do make sense and check out:

- [X] Importance of tightly integrated aerial observation and massed artillery fires working in near real time (something the US Army could do in 1944-45)

- [X] Extensive, deep fortifications containing efficiently numerically superior enemy (the JFO fortifications have withstood now 1 month of fires with 21st century tech and seem to be holding mostly)

- [X] Overextended mechanised forces being eventually ground to dust by local "pinprick" counterattacks (happened to the Germans all the time in 1941)

- [X] "Cheap" tank rushes do not work unless coordinated with infantry and artillery (happened to the Red Army a lot throughout the war)

- [X] Urban battles being sinkholes of time, blood and materiel (Stalingrad, Breslau, ... so many to count...)

- [X] Much vaunted militaries looting whatever to keep themselves fed 

...

All very fair points. My angle, to clarify, was more along the lines of the Come As You Are notes earlier...but my post veered off and your own points are perfectly valid in that context.

But ref the difficulty of making modern weapons in non-wartime economies, vs WW2 weapons in fully mobilized societies, there's no real equivalence, I feel.

Even so, I think a modern economy spun up to full wartime mobilization could produce modern gear at a crazy rate, far outstripping the WW2 pace.

Edited April 8, 2022 by Kinophile

[acrashb]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

But ref the difficulty of making modern weapons in non-wartime economies, vs WW2 weapons in fully mobilized societies, there's no real equivalence, I feel.

'fully mobilized' affects funding and manpower, but I think the inter-connectedness of supply chains, in a sanctioned entity like Russia, is the issue here.  For a WW2 MBT you needed steel, rubber, copper, various sundries, crude oil (for fuel, lubricants and hydraulic fluids), sand (optics) and nitrogen and cellulose for the exploding parts.  Maybe you would get fancy and have a radio.  All of that could be found in one regular country.

A modern MBT is an entirely different (steel) beast.

Edited April 8, 2022 by acrashb
forgot about sand ;)

[Kinophile]

I'd love to know just how much of a M1 Abrams is dependent on non-democratic countries...if at all.

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

Man that delay instantly made me think of Kursk, also. How could it not? 

Maybe I was wrong, maybe WW2 IS the right reference.

It's like the worst re-enactment weekend ever.

Russian and separs social media this hypothetical operation comapre with operation "Little Saturn" (Middle-Don offensive operation) 16-30th Dec 1942

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Little_Saturn

Edited April 8, 2022 by Haiduk

[Vacillator]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

I believe the IRA GHQ felt that if the war continued it was the civilians who would suffered the most as things were escalating very quickly. The Irish would still win, but a ceasefire would stop the terror campaign while giving the IRA time to rebuild/expand.

While I have no particular axe to grind over this, I don't think this thread is the place for such 'beliefs'?  I also hope your concluding belief is not actually correct.

Anyway, back to Ukraine if possible...

[womble]

35 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Even so, I think a modern economy spun up to full wartime mobilization could produce modern gear at a crazy rate, far outstripping the WW2 pace.

Not when it needs materiel that simply isn't available to the economy in question. One does not simply build a fab and start churning out silicon.

[sburke]

31 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

I'd love to know just how much of a M1 Abrams is dependent on non-democratic countries...if at all.

probably the same countries as your cellphone

[dan/california]

Modern production can be insanely efficient, and fast once it is set up. Setting it up take a LONG time. Exhibit A is two years into the pandemic I still can't get the bicycle I want, it is expensive, and particular, but two years on from the pandemic induced demand shock they still can't make enough of them. That is with me standing at the counter saying take my money. Now Putin may about to try harder, like if this line isn't running in six months I will shoot your whole family hard. But he is also in a vastly bigger hole. Russia needs to ramp things up by a factor of ten or more in many areas, and they have never owned much of the supply chain, or the underlying manufacturing technologies. Russia couldn't get a new plant up for thermal imagers built in two years before the sanctions, now it isn't clear they can do it at all. I am honestly not sure where China is on some of this stuff. But it is some indication that until very recently, if not still, they were relying on Russian jet engines. With the U.S. congress waving fistfuls of dollars at them Intel says they might have some new U.S. semiconductor production in the U.S. in 2025

[acrashb]

Here is a lengthy but comprehensive review.  Haven't listened to all of it, but nothing unreasonable in the opening bits: