How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

There is probably also a simple answer for giving heavier equipment to UKR:

- They can fight Russia and win

That's been said plenty up to now, it was all talk until they had actually defeated Russia's strongest attack. 

This is undeniable proof that UKR has what it takes in many different areas, where then can be given more stuff and they'll use it well. For all the WE STAND WITH UKRAINE blabber, everyone was waiting to see if they could actually pull it off. Which they have, to their eternal credit.

For our US friends, its a little like Saratoga - once the US had shown it could defeat a major British army, France was all in.

 

[Battlefront.com]

  

3 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Steve, don´t get me wrong. I guess we are pulling at the rope from the same side. I just think you are a tad bid overoptimistic what dumb ammo can and cannot do. However I admit I left the army business 30 years ago and there surely were interesting developments going on, but the fact that not only russia, ukraine, china and the rest of the world are developing "intelligent" laser or GPS guided arty ammo has a reason.

Yes, absolutely there is a reason.  Though note these programs are OLD by today's standards.  They predate drones, so at the time they were the best game in town hands down.  Now?  They still have a place, but not as much as they used to judging by how effective Ukraine's capabilities are.  Snap firing, no drone, moving target... dumb rounds will under perform compared to a smart round.  Pretty much every time.

3 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Example: Excalibur ammo, 92% of rounds falling within 4 meters (13 ft) of their targets:

 

Yup, and I expect that most of the Ukrainian rounds aren't hitting much closer than that.  In some cases even further away by my eyeball.  But certainly closer than the 30+ that the old 1977 document cited.

Remember to not compare apples to oranges.  Snap firing smart rounds and having them get to within 4m of a moving target is amazing.  Can't do that with individual dumb munitions except by sheer luck even with a drone.  Without a drone, the dumb rounds have no chance except by massed fire.

So, with that keep in mind that Ukraine has been putting rocket/missile and artillery rounds (including mortars) pretty much right on target pretty much 1-2 salvos.  They don't have smart munitions as far as we can tell, but they do have drones.  It is logical to conclude that drones + 8 years of experience are what's making the difference here.

Steve

 

[Kinophile]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

  

 

So, with that keep in mind that Ukraine has been putting rocket/missile and artillery rounds (including mortars) pretty much right on target pretty much 1-2 salvos.  They don't have smart munitions as far as we can tell, but they do have drones.  It is logical to conclude that drones + 8 years of experience are what's making the difference here.

Steve

 

with the experience being not just use/familiarity with the equipment, but the further development and deeper integration of their home grown, open source fire control/targeting apps.

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

I might even propose UA should stand up a 'Vlassov' engineer battalion of Russian defectors, tasked not with heavy combat duties but with cleanup, repair and aid distribution. Paid like UA troops and given Ukraine citizenship if they like upon their honourable discharge.

I was thinking along similar lines, but more like what the Danes did with German PoWs.  They were obligated to clear all the beaches of the millions of mines they planted.  In 2015 there was a movie made about this:

https://www.warhistoryonline.com/war-articles/new-danish-film-charts-world-war-two-land-mine-clearance.html

I did read something a few days ago about Russian PoWs being recruited for a fighting against Russian forces.  Not sure how much of that was hype for propaganda purposes or how real it is.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, akd said:

You can do it little guy. Just…keep…going…

Where there is a will, there is a way.  And there is a lot of will in this little tank!

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

34 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I was thinking along similar lines, but more like what the Danes did with German PoWs.  They were obligated to clear all the beaches of the millions of mines they planted.  In 2015 there was a movie made about this:

https://www.warhistoryonline.com/war-articles/new-danish-film-charts-world-war-two-land-mine-clearance.html

I did read something a few days ago about Russian PoWs being recruited for a fighting against Russian forces.  Not sure how much of that was hype for propaganda purposes or how real it is.

Steve

Yeah, pulling myself back into the military ways-and-means here:

I have every fear that redeployed and weary-but-wiser Russian VDV paras, already trained to operate self-sufficiently, can mate up with local militiamen and start giving UA forces a nasty dose of their own medicine as their LOCs extend.  The key success factor for them will be if they can rely on a critical mass local people.....

That adaptation is likely already happening. Don't rely on the Russians staying stupid everywhere and at all times.

Bigeard's and Brechignac's paras in Indochina imitated Viet Minh tactics and tech (RCLs, man portable heavy bazookas) with some success, especially in ethnic Thai and Montagnard areas, although it wasn't enough.

Edited April 3, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[dan/california]

In terms of increasing the Ukrainians already considerable indirect fire capability and expertise, would current U.S. spec 120mm mortars be just about the easiest system to train them up on? Both the U.S. and the swedes make some nice guided rounds for it. Unless I radically misunderstand something you just stick the guidance bits on both ends of a standard round, and feed it GPS coordinates. Ukrainians seem to understand gps just fine.  Range is shorter than 152/155 obviously, but they are a lot easier to hide and move, too. They would be just the thing to make the Russians want to go home in all sorts of deservedly unpleasant ways if the lines go more static.

Edited April 3, 2022 by dan/california
dropped a word

[Battlefront.com]

Yet another view of how much destruction was caused to the Russians in the Kiev area.  No way to know when this happened as the Russians gave Ukrainian forces so many opportunities to get themselves burned up:

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Fenris said:

This pics coming out of Bucha defy comprehension.

Unbelievable.

Not unbelievable if you followed the events of 2014 very closely.  One of the first things the Russian backed thugs (often Russian citizens, but not always) did when they took over a place was kidnap, murder, torture, beat, and steal anything that wasn't nailed down.  The fighting was also cruel right from the start.  The Russians premeditated murder at Battle of Ilovaisk is also well documented.

That said...

I've seen some people getting a bit ahead of the facts and claiming that Russian forces were doing Srebrenica type ethnic cleansing based on mass graves found in Bucha.  Beware of these stories until the facts are better known because there's a difference between murdering civilians through artillery and murdering civilians with a shot to the back of the head.  One is a warcrime the other is state sponsored mass murder (or whatever it is legally called).  Russia needs to be held accountable for it either way, but one is definitely worse than the other from a moral standpoint.

The mass graves in Bucha could simply have been the Russians burring all the people their artillery massacred.  For sure I've watched Ukrainians in Mariupol filling trenches full of their dead friends, family, and neighbors.  Mass casualties in times of war can lead to burial practices that look very similar to mass murder.  Investigators will look for things like bullet wounds, bindings, signs of torture, and other things to make the determination.  And we're not there yet.

Steve

[danfrodo]

40 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

There is probably also a simple answer for giving heavier equipment to UKR:

- They can fight Russia and win

That's been said plenty up to now, it was all talk until they had actually defeated Russia's strongest attack. 

This is undeniable proof that UKR has what it takes in many different areas, where then can be given more stuff and they'll use it well. For all the WE STAND WITH UKRAINE blabber, everyone was waiting to see if they could actually pull it off. Which they have, to their eternal credit.

For our US friends, its a little like Saratoga - once the US had shown it could defeat a major British army, France was all in.

 

Maybe there is some of that, Kinophile.  I am more disposed to the thought that US/NATO were fearful of escalation (to the level of stupidity on jets & AFVS & tanks), but as Putin has become more ruthless decisions were being considered to increase the support w heavy weapons.  And a perfect time to announce this publicly would be when we see these war crimes.  It's not like they only just began to consider  these complex arms deals over the last day or so.

[Fenris]

19 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Not unbelievable if you followed the events of 2014 very closely.  One of the first things the Russian backed thugs (often Russian citizens, but not always) did when they took over a place was kidnap, murder, torture, beat, and steal anything that wasn't nailed down.  The fighting was also cruel right from the start.  The Russians premeditated murder at Battle of Ilovaisk is also well documented.

That said...

I've seen some people getting a bit ahead of the facts and claiming that Russian forces were doing Srebrenica type ethnic cleansing based on mass graves found in Bucha.  Beware of these stories until the facts are better known because there's a difference between murdering civilians through artillery and murdering civilians with a shot to the back of the head.  One is a warcrime the other is state sponsored mass murder (or whatever it is legally called).  Russia needs to be held accountable for it either way, but one is definitely worse than the other from a moral standpoint.

The mass graves in Bucha could simply have been the Russians burring all the people their artillery massacred.  For sure I've watched Ukrainians in Mariupol filling trenches full of their dead friends, family, and neighbors.  Mass casualties in times of war can lead to burial practices that look very similar to mass murder.  Investigators will look for things like bullet wounds, bindings, signs of torture, and other things to make the determination.  And we're not there yet.

Steve

Yes I agree it's to early to know what happened, I was careful to keep my post neutral.  That said though, I do admit to thinking that none of those people would be dead if the RF hadn't crossed the border.  Such a colossal waste of life.

[chris talpas]

1 hour ago, MikeyD said:

Russian practices and Ukrainian practices are not equivalent. Also, its a mighty big coincidence that the Russian speaking territories Russia is 'liberating' just happens to coincide with the location of newly discovered oil and gas deposits.

Actually a great breakdown of what resources lUkraine  has:

 

[LongLeftFlank]

Disquieting thread from Kamil Galeev.

Kamil is far from infallible and paints with a very large brush, but like James Burke ('Connections') he does make me think in a way that more erudite and focused 'experts' miss. In short, he synthesizes, concisely (too much sometimes, sure) and tells intriguing stories. Stories (myths, etc.) are what drive action in the nonacademic world, as he himself notes.

Anyhoo, Galeev is deeply worried that in order to have a victory to show on Victory Day, May 9th, Putin will need to 'escalate' the war, although in what manner nobody yet knows.

P.S.  For those interested, here is his 'Russia as North Korea?' thread as well. It's one of the readings that got me thinking about how Ukraine might (in sharp contrast to Russia) reinvent itself postwar....

...Kind of a Miltonian ('better to rule in Hell than serve in Heaven!') take on society. It's like serfdom never really left.

And living here in a deeply caste ridden society (the Philippines), one can see a certain appeal to having 'people for that'. So long as you're one of the masters....

Viktor Suvorov's 'The Aquarium', sadly out of print now, explored some of these same issues from the viewpoint of a nomenklatura functionary living in faction-riven 1970s Soviet society.  Here too, I don't honestly care how much of it was fiction; Razun told a great story!

Edited April 3, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Fenris said:

Yes I agree it's to early to know what happened, I was careful to keep my post neutral.  That said though, I do admit to thinking that none of those people would be dead if the RF hadn't crossed the border.  Such a colossal waste of life.

This is the most important point that should NEVER be in question as we discuss these things.  This is an illegal, unjustified war of choice and that means 100% of the civilian casualties in Ukraine are 100% the fault of the Russian Federation and the government under Vladimir Putin.  As such, the Russian Federation must be held accountable for all civilian deaths no matter how they occurred.  Period.

However, it is always important to make factual based cases in support of criminal charges.  Not doing so undermines the moral and legal authority for whatever punishment is handed down by international courts and individual nations.  The evidence of warcrimes and Crimes Against Humanity are already so clearly established there is absolutely no reason to stretch or misrepresent the truth.

Now, I know the mayor of Bucha is saying that there is a mass grave with 280 people buried in it.  He also said they were shot.  This might turn out to be true.  Wouldn't even surprise me too much, though I have some doubts reserved.  I do not think the mayor is lying.  However, we don't know enough.  Could be it was 3rd hand info and he's wrong.  Could be that some were shot and others died from shell fragments.  Could be a lot of things.  Which is why forensic teams that specialize in this sort of thing should get to the site/s as quickly as possible and conduct investigations.

This, BTW, is a problem for Russia.  By clearing out of the entire region around Kiev's west they have allowed an environment that is safe enough for international teams to come in and investigate while the war is still going on.  From reports I've read this is already in motion at the high level and should (hopefully) translate to something on the ground soon.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

54 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

..Kind of a Miltonian ('better to rule in Hell than serve in Heaven!') take on society. It's like serfdom never really left.

The ruling elite in Russia for sure has no interest in the people of Russia.  So yes, it is true that the Russian oligarchy is deliberately keeping conditions at home favorable in order to maximize profits.  Low wages, no environmental restrictions, naked land grabs, no true legal recourse for victims, deliberate suppression of competition, etc.  These things are done right up until the point of the population getting it into their heads that they don't have to live that way.  True, however not unique to Russia at all.  In fact, it could be said that Russia isn't going as far as other oil producing states, especially the Middle East.

I guess I just see this as obvious and routine for autocratic states with in-demand resources.

Steve

[kraze]

Doesn't look like shelling victims to me

https://censor.net/ua/photo_news/3330918/vulytsi_vsiyani_tilamy_u_buchi_v_bratskiyi_mogyli_pohovaly_280_lyudeyi_mer_fedoruk_fotoreportaj_18

[LongLeftFlank]

22 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The ruling elite in Russia for sure has no interest in the people of Russia.  So yes, it is true that the Russian oligarchy is deliberately keeping conditions at home favorable in order to maximize profits.  Low wages, no environmental restrictions, naked land grabs, no true legal recourse for victims, deliberate suppression of competition, etc.  These things are done right up until the point of the population getting it into their heads that they don't have to live that way.  True, however not unique to Russia at all.  In fact, it could be said that Russia isn't going as far as other oil producing states, especially the Middle East.

I guess I just see this as obvious and routine for autocratic states with in-demand resources.

Steve

Agreed.

But if Ukraine can indeed reinvent itself as a (comparatively) shining 'city on a hill' -- with more than a little help from the West -- many of those oppressed Russian narodniks are going to beat feet for the bright lights of Kiev, and Minsk (it's only a matter of time, Lukas[self censored for extreme obscenity]....

While China -- whose emerging multinats as like as not will also be heavily invested in a new Ukraine, btw, if only because they are utterly addicted to building stuff! -- is going to want to keep the mangy Muscovite bear shackled.

All the better to slowly absorb the wealth of Siberia into Greater China. They don't need Russians for that; let them emigrate!  Forget South China Sea; the Arctic is where the (remaining) good stuff is. And it also rights at least one of those old Chinese grievances against perfidious whitey -- that the Russians got to Siberia before they did!

Edited April 3, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Aragorn2002]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The Morgenthau plan was basically WW1 Treaty of Versailles all over again.  Morgenthau's plan was obviously based on the concept that the reason Versailles failed is that it wasn't tough enough.

Historians, economists, and pretty much everybody that matters has a negative opinion of the Morgenthau Plan and an extremely positive one of the Marshall Plan.  Morgenthau was short sighted and vindictive, but also totally unrealistic.  Things turned out very well under the Marshall Plan, I don't think Morgenthau Plan would have been anything but an abject failure.

Steve

The reality though is that what happened to Germany after the war was something in between the Marshall Plan and the Morgenthau Plan. Millions of Germans died after 1945 by ethnic cleansing, starvation and deportation, many of them in concentration camps, forced labour camps and torture cellars. Not many people are aware of that, but Nazism was literally burned out of the German soul after a storm of destruction, killing, looting and raping. Those who sow the wind, I know, but just words wouldn't  have done the job. That's something to remember when it  comes to deal with Russia.

Edited April 3, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Battlefront.com]

15 minutes ago, kraze said:

Doesn't look like shelling victims to me

https://censor.net/ua/photo_news/3330918/vulytsi_vsiyani_tilamy_u_buchi_v_bratskiyi_mogyli_pohovaly_280_lyudeyi_mer_fedoruk_fotoreportaj_18

Nor to anybody who has seen them.  Shelling victims also don't tend to bind their own hands before getting hit.  Which obviously means they were murdered up close and personal by Russians of some sort (Army, OMON, Chechens, we don't know).

The mass graves are where the investigations are needed.  From a criminal standpoint there is a need to know what happened.

Steve

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, Aragorn2002 said:

The reality though is that what happened to Germany after the war was something in between the Marshall Plan and the Morgenthau Plan. Millions of Germans died after 1945 by ethnic cleansing, starvation and deportation, many of them in concentration camps, forced labour camps and torture cellars. Not many people are aware of that, but Nazism was literally burned out of the German soul.

Be very careful here.  This is a rallying cry for neo-nazis and has been debunked at great length.  If you wish to bring this sort of thing to this discussion here, go ahead and you'll be out for good.  This is your one and only warning.

Steve

[Aragorn2002]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Be very careful here.  This is a rallying cry for neo-nazis and has been debunked at great length.  If you wish to bring this sort of thing to this discussion here, go ahead and you'll be out for good.  This is your one and only warning.

Steve

Don't really understand  this reaction, but message recieved.

[Aragorn2002]

11 hours ago, sburke said:

You are categorically wrong there.  That is exactly what has happened.  Russia has not ordered a full mobilization and already has an issue with conscripts refusing to serve in Ukraine.  There are very sharp political reasons for that.  Will Putin go that far?  Possibly.  The risks are extreme and likely require he actually declare it a war by Russian statute.  Assuming he does that, will it make a difference?  Mobilizing even more untrained cannon fodder with military hardware that may not even work?  The DPR/LNR guys and the Ossetians have already complained about being used as cannon fodder.   Again we are talking about a 300 mile front line.  I am not sure how many square kilometers that translates to.  The numbers just don't work.

And yet I don't feel comfortable with regarding the Russian army as a spent force. Evil is resourceful and Putin is no exception. The Russian positions in the South and East can still be a starting point for new offensives. That may be lunacy from our Western point of view, but I think the Russian people won't accept anything less than at least a moral victory. Perhaps that heli attack on that fuel depot tells us that Putin is prepared to do anything to keep the Russians behind this war and if that's the case,  we're in for much more misery and suffering.

Edited April 3, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Machor]

@LongLeftFlank

"Russia will become much poorer but its rulers might even like that. Consider this paper by now Deputy PM Belousov. The growth of middle class is problematic:

- they buy expensive imported goods
- they increase cost of labor, demand more labor rights
- they try to emigrate"

This was quite literally what Erdoğan's pundits and lackeys were saying after the latest Turkish Lira crash. There's a Marxian analysis waiting here (and yes, there's tons of stupid Marx, but you can also have smart Marx, e.g. Moishe Postone) about the 'enemies of the middle class.'

...

More footage from the Beeb. I was amused by the BTR that tried to drive over a BMD, but I have to remind myself that young people died here ... a lot of young people died here, and ultimately one person gave the order for this, even though I wish to avoid a 'reverse-personality cult' of Putin. Just from the wrecks, one can imagine how desperate those last moments were:

"War in Ukraine: Evidence grows of civilian killings in Bucha"

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-60968546

 

[kraze]

22 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

And yet I don't feel comfortable with regarding the Russian army as a spent force. Evil is resourceful and Putin is no exception. The Russian positions in the South and East can still be a starting point for new offensives. That may be lunacy from our Western point of view, but I think the Russian people won't accept anything less than at least a moral victory. Perhaps that heli attack on that fuel depot tells us that Putin is prepared to do anything to keep the Russians behind this war and if that's the case,  we're in for much more misery and suffering.

Heli attack was Ukrainian.

Their whole tzar's holy / divine figure stands on Russia being invincible and never facing any retribution for all the evils they do.

So that's why they covered up two attacks on their airbases and an attack on ammo depot in Belgorod a day before. Since those were missile attacks and thus couldn't be filmed by the populace like choppers wrecking havoc on their delusions.

Fuel depot attack resulted in panic. Some literally started to question if their army knows what it's doing if "khokhols" are now bombing their stuff with air forces that were obliterated 3 times over according to their army.

[Aragorn2002]

1 minute ago, kraze said:

Heli attack was Ukrainian.

Their whole tzar's holy / divine figure stands on Russia being invincible and never facing any retribution for all the evils they do.

So that's why they covered up two attacks on their airbases and an attack on ammo depot in Belgorod a day before. Since those were missile attacks and thus couldn't be filmed by the populace like choppers wrecking havoc on their delusions.

Fuel depot attack resulted in panic. Some literally started to question if their army knows what it's doing if "khokhols" are now bombing their stuff with air forces that were obliterated 3 times over according to their army.

Perhaps those Ukrainian helis should pay a visit to the Red Square or one of Putins holiday resorts.