danfrodo Posted March 27, 2022 Share Posted March 27, 2022 On the "putin senile" thing, I definitely fall on the side of a narcissistic sociopath megalomaniac who has learned over time that his wishes and his will become reality. Hench he does 'insane' thing but it's all quite rational to him. And so will someone please kill this monster??? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 27, 2022 Share Posted March 27, 2022 ISW report for today is out. Not much in there that we aren't already aware of, except that it is their assessment that Russia appears willing to reinvest in surrounding Kiev. This runs contrary to the thinking that they are shifting to a more realistic (still not very good) chance of doing something major with Donbas enlargement. ISW points to a few factors, such as additional logistics units and reinforcements within Belarus, and the probable upgrading of the area's command to a more senior general. I don't think things are going to go well for Russia if this is in fact what they are doing. Some of Russia's best forces were thrown at surrounding Kiev and they were ground down to the point where they had to be withdrawn or at least go on the defensive. I don't see how some scratch forces dragged from sleepy corners of Russia are going to somehow make a difference. https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian Operations Assessments March 27_0.pdf Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 27, 2022 Share Posted March 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, danfrodo said: On the "putin senile" thing, I definitely fall on the side of a narcissistic sociopath megalomaniac who has learned over time that his wishes and his will become reality. Hench he does 'insane' thing but it's all quite rational to him. And so will someone please kill this monster??? Oh, I was just being snarky about the senile comment There is some evidence to suspect he's got fairly recent cognitive problems, but I'm not sure that's what is going on here. I think it's more likely the usual autocrat syndrome of having no good advisers and too much confidence in doing no wrong. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted March 27, 2022 Share Posted March 27, 2022 38 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: A subtle difference, perhaps, is that my friend and I didn't dismiss the possibility of a full invasion as many did. We just didn't see any evidence to suggest that Putin had gone senile so quickly 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAZmaj Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 8 hours ago, IanL said: It depends on how terrible the previous leadership was. It could be an improvement. What is a "back up command group"? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAZmaj Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 15 hours ago, Panserjeger said: Playing the part as REDFOR in Battle Griffin (1999 i think?) "LENIN" and Hammer & Sickle 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 (edited) The back up command group is the one that gets assembled in a very great hurry when the original one gets mortared/152ed/MLRSed into little tiny pieces. It is usually not as good as the first one, by the time you are putting things back together for the third time the unit is probably combat ineffective anyway. Although the Russians seem to have committed at least some units to the fight in that condition, if the rank of the acting commander listed on HIS obituary is any indication. To put it another way the top of the units chain of command keeps shorter, very painfully. Maybe the Russians should just go home before their country disintegrates behind them. Edited March 28, 2022 by dan/california 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 On 3/26/2022 at 7:10 PM, akd said: Nope. This guy, however, is probably from the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade: Marine Major Alexey Sukhanov, killed in Mariupol. @sburke correction on unit for above: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyrano01 Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 57 minutes ago, dan/california said: The back up command group is the one that gets assembled in a very great hurry when the original one gets mortared/152ed/MLRSed into little tiny pieces. It is usually not as good as the first one, by the time you are putting things back together for the third time the unit is probably combat ineffective anyway. Although the Russians seem to have committed at least some units to the fight in that condition, if the rank of the acting commander listed on HIS obituary is any indication. To put it another way the top of the units chain of command keeps shorter, very painfully. Maybe the Russians should just go home before their country disintegrates behind them. I vaguely recall hearing a WW1 historian of the British Army commenting that the best way to become a brigadier was to be a lieutenant in 1914 and not get killed. The Russian Army seems to be working on an accelerated promotion scheme. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 14 minutes ago, akd said: @sburke correction on unit for above: got it 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, sburke said: got it And have not seen that unit reported before. Seems there may be more being ground up in Mariupol than we know. Edited March 28, 2022 by akd 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 The defense of Mariupol matches any heroic defense in history, as well as any collection of war crimes. NATO needs to start giving Zelensky cruise missiles if they won't just put their planes in the air and end this. The &%$#^ *%%%$% &&$$% besieging Mariupol need to meet a higher grade of retribution. I will spare everyone the my full rant on the subject. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 34 minutes ago, dan/california said: The defense of Mariupol matches any heroic defense in history, as well as any collection of war crimes. NATO needs to start giving Zelensky cruise missiles if they won't just put their planes in the air and end this. The &%$#^ *%%%$% &&$$% besieging Mariupol need to meet a higher grade of retribution. I will spare everyone the my full rant on the subject. You can't just "give" something like that to another nation. It's not a toy, it requires a massive amount of equipment, training, and support services. This is the same as Patriot and other systems. And even if this could be done (which it can't be), how many dozens of cruise missiles would it take for there to be an effect worth noting? Each one of which will undoubtedly cause collateral damage since the Russians are deep in the city already. Militarily nothing can be done for Mariupol except for a major direct NATO attack, which means an immediate war with Russia and all the risks that entails. That's not in the cards. As horrible as this war is, there's practical limitations on action. For now the best we in the West can do is make sure all PRACTICAL forms of support to Ukraine are given with no strings attached. After the war is over the West needs to make sure Russia pays for its crimes and is forced onto a different nation state path than the one it's been pursuing for the last couple hundred years. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 Some good insights into how Zelensky is handling negotiations with the Russians: https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/prezident-denacifikaciya-ta-demilitarizaciya-ukrayini-na-per-73901 Denazification and disarmament are "not being discussed". Whether Russia will bring them up again later on is not known, but for now they aren't part of negotiations. No NATO and neutrality are on the table provided they are secured by other nations that have the ability to stand up to Russia. On the whole language issue, Zelensky has no problem ensuring that Russian language isn't discriminated against, but he put it into the context of other languages and neighboring states. What I think he's saying here is that here is no room for special consideration for Russian separate from the "100" other languages spoken within Ukraine. He is also implying that Russia needs to adopt the same guarrantees for Ukrainian spoken inside of Russia (he mentions other neighbors, but I suspect this is aimed purely at Russia). Sooooo... basically Zelensky is setting putting forth reasonable compromises to show that he's serious about ending the war. Russia, on the other hand, is unlikely to like any of these preconditions and so the talks are likely to continue going nowhere. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fenris Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 (edited) 19 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: Sooooo... basically Zelensky is setting putting forth reasonable compromises to show that he's serious about ending the war. Russia, on the other hand, is unlikely to like any of these preconditions and so the talks are likely to continue going nowhere. Hardly surprising, I don't think they're seriously negotiating at all, just going through the motions to keep up appearances so they can say they're doing it (as per usual). As most of us have been saying from the beginning without something miraculous its a lose/lose situation for russia. Like just about everything in this stupid episode they've adroitly painted themselves into a corner with nothing left besides channelling J Goebbles and keep on lying. Edited March 28, 2022 by Fenris 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 (edited) I know that cruise missiles are not great for firing into the front lines of a city battle. But if the entire logistical train feeding the Russians in Mariupol just started blowing up they would notice very quickly. My less crazy suggestion is that NATO line up whatever ground launch cruise missiles are available, set the trucks up on the Ukrainian polish border. get them 100% ready to launch, have a Ukrainian crew drive them a hundred yards over the border, set the ground stabilizers if any and press the the go button. Then drive it back across the border to be reloaded and and any other necessary steps by the the trained crew. Repeat the process until the Russians quit and go home. Even fifty or a hundred missiles would thoroughly wreck whatever logistics the Russians still have. These fine distinctions about how we will and won't kill Russians are getting silly. I realize the Ukrainians are winning on the current plan, but the cost to the civilian population is just beyond excruciating. Everyone is worried about making Putin too desperate, but he is going to get desperate anyway on the current trend. There will just be how ever many more thousands or tens of thousands of dead Ukrainian civilians when he gets to the point of realizing he has flat out lost. I think there is one bleep of argument for moving up the timeline. Edited March 28, 2022 by dan/california 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 Stuff like this... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAZmaj Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 2 hours ago, dan/california said: ...The &%$#^ *%%%$% &&$$% besieging Mariupol need to meet a higher grade of retribution... 21 minutes ago, dan/california said: Stuff like this... Just horrible : Mariana Leshkovych (she/they) (@Meduselchen) tweeted at 3:07 AM on Sun, Mar 27, 2022: cw death (really, don't watch this) Stacked bodies of civilians in #Mariupol - in a truck, on the stairs, in a (temporary?) morgue/hospital. #Ukraine #UkraineWar https://twitter.com/Meduselchen/status/1508022826816704512?t=y5hH_0oODHV78po9QxkvoA&s=03 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_MonkeyKing Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 latest from Michael Kofman 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 Dunno if noted already here (I think UKR GS already tracking). https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2022/03/21/japan-spots-russian-amphibious-ships-traveling-between-its-islands/ 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fenris Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, Kinophile said: Dunno if noted already here (I think UKR GS already tracking). https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2022/03/21/japan-spots-russian-amphibious-ships-traveling-between-its-islands/ RF contractually obliged to lend a hand invading Taiwan? The Chinese must be sweating bullets. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Lancelot Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 (edited) 8 hours ago, dan/california said: The thing about Taiwan that doesn't get enough press is that they actually have a very strong and reciprocated affinity for the Japanese. It is literally the only place in Asia they treated decently from 1895 to 1945. There was a plan to incorporate them fully into the home Islands. This gives the Japanese more motivation to help defend Taiwan than is commonly assumed. I don't want to get into a big discussion about Japanese Imperialism, but treatment of Taiwanese natives during the Japanese occupation of Taiwan wasn't all that "decent". The Japanese occupiers ruled the island with an iron-fist, treated its people as second-class subjects, and used the men as canon fodder. The truth is, they treated the Taiwanese no better than slaves and tried to wipe out their culture. I highly recommend a Taiwanese film called Seediq Bale, which recounts a native tribe's struggle against Japanese occupation. Edited March 28, 2022 by Sir Lancelot 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 Hey look Ma! No airport! Russians seem to be learning. Refueling operation out on a road instead of the usual spots Ukraine is used to clobbering: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 Looks like an IED to me 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panserjeger Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 Article from the Barents Observer, citing Ukrainian claims that the BTG from the 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade was totally wiped out, with only 3 survivors out of a force of 648. https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2022/03/several-hundred-arctic-troops-killed-says-ukrainian-adviser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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