How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

very true @The_Capt, @Bil Hardenberger @womble.

I often think of the MBT of the future as almost a LCS - in its original concept, I mean. Mission interchangeable modules, "slaved" UAV, UGVs, integrated tightly with other MBTs, so the whole formation (e.g armored platoon) operating as a swarm of swarms.

[dan/california]

The more or less suicidal ammo handling practices are just amazing, But I wanted to get back to what is next in ground warfare since the Ukrainian General Staff has more important things to do than keep us informed. Hopefully those things include the encirclement of several thousand of what passes for Russia's best troops. 

Things we seem to learned beyond all doubt in this war, tanks can't charge effective ATGMs being employed by competent and unsuppressed troops, it is literally suicide. Which ever side can turn drone data in an accurate firing solution first wins. You have to have ammo to implement said effective firing solution. The signals/ECM platoon is now the most important unit in the entire army. Going thru through a few thoughts on all of these, please feel free to skip it or tell me how wrong I am.

Given that ATGMs almost completely dominate any fight where the opposing sides can see each other, how do you make them more effective. My little Idea is pretty simple. The missile needs to be able to crawl a 30 or 40 yards on its own and then be fired remotely. The Ukrainians have already demonstrated the effectiveness of their Stugna ATGM with a controller that has a few tens of meters of wire. So imagine a javelin with a similar set-up that could crawl the last twenty meters to the crest of the hill by itself. Imagine the javelin crawling out onto the balcony of a hi-rise building, While the operator is doing his best to be tiny and invisible in the hallway.  The next level trick of course is for the sensor to do the crawling, and the missile fires from a 1/4 mile back. But I really think a Javelin with even a twenty meter crawl range would be game changing, and there is no "new" tech involved, just a nice integration of things that are pretty much out there.

The next question is how can the infantry carry more of these missiles. Can we build a UGV with a load capacity high enough, and a signature low enough to be useful to an infantry unit that doesn't want to be the next drone target. I have read about some tests, but the cost benefit ration doesn't seem to be there yet. As several people have mentioned there are also a lot of programs out there that give infantry some version of powered armor, or at least greatly increased load bearing capacity, if tanks don't make sense anymore this needs a lot more money thrown at it, because if a guy with one missile is dangerous, a guy with three who can still move around is even more so.

To paraphrase Steve, drones are the greatest effectiveness multiplier since breech loading rifles, so what does that look like going forward. First and foremost there are going to be a LOT of them, and the side that can keep more of theirs up for longer wins the whole battle. Second, you have to be able to kill these bleeping things, or you might as well stay home. The U.S. already seems to have several technologies under development to knock down drones, and whatever was being spent on this last month needs to be increased by somewhere between a factor of ten, and a factor of a hundred.

As much as drones have mattered in the Ukrainian war, we still haven't seen them used in QUANTITY. By quantity I am talking about a five ton truck whose entire load is something very like a a bunch of switchblade 300s, and they deploy by the hundred. Maybe half of them are not much more than decoys with some sort of cheap jammer/ fake radio.

It isn't viable to kill truly large numbers of drones with missiles that cost six figures, and in guns don't have the range, so what does work? Both lasers and high powered microwave jammers are under development.This is going to be its own arms race.

If 12 or even two of the 100 drones you just launched are still up and feeding data to your artillery, we come to the next question. Do you have any artillery ammo to shoot at them.  Some one who has actually worked in fire control unit needs to do some math about how many truly smart artillery round vs how many merely good conventional rounds is the ideal mix. Smart shells cost tens of thousands of dollars each, and not smart shells don't. Smart shells are certainly useful against some targets, but regular 155/152 seems plenty good enough in a LOT of cases. How much is cost difference effectively reduced by the logistics burden of getting rounds al the way forward to the guns? Is the "shipping cost" so high that they might as well all be smart rounds?  Going one step higher what is the mix you need between really expensive loitering munitions, and tube artillery? The expensive stuff is great until you run out of it.

Random extra thought about unguided artillery accuracy. How much would accuracy improve if the drone that was feeding you targeting data also gave weather info., wind speed, air density, and so on. Is it worth it for every drone in the force to collecting this all the time?

Last but not least signals/ecm is not going to be on anybodies back burner for a long time. A real advantage here cascades though everything else for better of worse. I am not an expert at the details of radio frequency communications, but i want to put one simple idea out there. You need a better plan than the plan Russians are currently using when your radios don't  work. I would stipulate the the plan in question shouldn't rely on radio frequencies at all. Some sort of laser based system comes immediately to mind, but there needs to be a plan B, just in case you are fighting someone competent.

Again, feel free to tell me how wrong I am.

Glory To Ukraine!

[Haiduk]

UKR commercial drone drops three RKG-1600 bombs (upgraded old RKG-3 HEAT grenades) on unidentified vehicle. Two hits

 

[sross112]

If we are mothballing the tanks, I vote for POWER ARMOR!!!!!!! Now it is only a matter of deciding:

or

If these options are not logistically friendly or something I guess mechs will suffice.  

[Probus]

8 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The signals/ECM platoon is now the most important unit in the entire army.

Totally agree. In the future, don't try to shoot a drone out of the sky, jam it out. 

[riptides]

4 minutes ago, Probus said:

Totally agree. In the future, don't try to shoot a drone out of the sky, jam it out. 

Better, but the next step - Hack it, return to sender.

[Bil Hardenberger]

Just now, riptides said:

Better, but the next step - Hack it, return to sender.

Edit.. soory, quoted the wrong post.. should have been this one from @Probus

Quote

Totally agree. In the future, don't try to shoot a drone out of the sky, jam it out. 

I know the Russians have small vehicle mounted jammers that could do this right now... however once used your location will be lit up like a Christmas tree for enemy EW teams to call fire on.  I think the lifespan of such units would be short and of dubious effectiveness overall.

Bil

Edited March 25, 2022 by Bil Hardenberger

[sross112]

I don't know much about it but I'm sure several of you do. What effects would EMP have against the drones operating in theater? How about the proposed UGVs? Is it easy/hard/impossible to insulate against it? What about for the control stations and communication between control and vehicle? I'm more of a wood/metal guy, that electricity stuff is dark magic to me so even the simplest explanation will educate me. Thanks.

[Probus]

@sburke, Do you have a link to your list of officers? I bet it is more accurate than CNN.

[dan/california]

Discussed earlier, but seems to be firming up.

[holoween]

14 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Given that ATGMs almost completely dominate any fight where the opposing sides can see each other, how do you make them more effective. My little Idea is pretty simple. The missile needs to be able to crawl a 30 or 40 yards on its own and then be fired remotely. The Ukrainians have already demonstrated the effectiveness of their Stugna ATGM with a controller that has a few tens of meters of wire. So imagine a javelin with a similar set-up that could crawl the last twenty meters to the crest of the hill by itself. Imagine the javelin crawling out onto the balcony of a hi-rise building, While the operator is doing his best to be tiny and invisible in the hallway.  The next level trick of course is for the sensor to do the crawling, and the missile fires from a 1/4 mile back. But I really think a Javelin with even a twenty meter crawl range would be game changing, and there is no "new" tech involved, just a nice integration of things that are pretty much out there.

Heard of the Spike ATGM?

You can simply fire it from behind a hill when told there are targets and then guide them onto the target.

And the swingfire has basically the same idea.

 

The big issue with atgms is that while they currently dominate active protection systems are starting to be fielded and once they arrive in numbers it will make current atgms largely obsolete at least against vehicle targets.

[The_Capt]

5 minutes ago, Probus said:

Totally agree. In the future, don't try to shoot a drone out of the sky, jam it out. 

This seems to be the common sentiment; however, this is not an easy ask:

- To jam one is dumping very high amounts of EM energy into the air.  This is very easy to see, fix and kill in a contested environment.  So there is no big red "EM" easy button.

- Modern militaries, well good ones, use al sorts of frequency hopping, field networks, satellites, LOS systems and bunch of classified tricks to ensure we have data feeds...they are kinda important.  So again, no magic "jam" wand.

- Semi-autonomous, means that jamming doesn't mean the UAVs start falling out of the sky like cherry blossom leaves.  The current generation is vulnerable but future ones will be pre-loaded with enough AI to return to base, or try and evade jamming without a human being in the loop.  In fact there will likely be a race to fully autonomous for this exact reason.

- Military spec stuff is already built to survive EMP and a lot of this stuff, so again "wave the wand Harry-mischief managed" is not a realistic expectation. 

One safe prediction I will make is that UAV/UGV, C-UAV/UGV and C-C-UAV/UGV development are going to go into overdrive after this war and will likely continue for some time to come.

[Probus]

Good points, but if I'm already compromised then an ECM jammer, broad range, is gonna be the way to go to defeat it quickly. The more mil-spec the drone, the harder that is going to be. 

And you know what comes next, autonomous drones. Followed shortly by Skynet. 

Edit: BTW, Im sure you know this already, but many military drones have a satellite antenna pointed skyward making them even harder to jam. 

Edited March 25, 2022 by Probus
Antenna Comment

[dan/california]

Quote function didn't work right...

 

Two issue going forward with APS going forward. Does it simply cost two much to deploy at scale? And can the radar be jammed, and or itself be used to guide a missile to the tank.

Edited March 25, 2022 by dan/california

[holoween]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

This seems to be the common sentiment; however, this is not an easy ask:

- To jam one is dumping very high amounts of EM energy into the air.  This is very easy to see, fix and kill in a contested environment.  So there is no big red "EM" easy button.

- Modern militaries, well good ones, use al sorts of frequency hopping, field networks, satellites, LOS systems and bunch of classified tricks to ensure we have data feeds...they are kinda important.  So again, no magic "jam" wand.

- Semi-autonomous, means that jamming doesn't mean the UAVs start falling out of the sky like cherry blossom leaves.  The current generation is vulnerable but future ones will be pre-loaded with enough AI to return to base, or try and evade jamming without a human being in the loop.  In fact there will likely be a race to fully autonomous for this exact reason.

- Military spec stuff is already built to survive EMP and a lot of this stuff, so again "wave the wand Harry-mischief managed" is not a realistic expectation. 

One safe prediction I will make is that UAV/UGV, C-UAV/UGV and C-C-UAV/UGV development are going to go into overdrive after this war and will likely continue for some time to come.

I dont buy the cant shoot down drones argument.

Autocannons with airburst rounds are quite capable in dealing with small drones. And short/medium range anti air missile are very easily capable of dealing with medium drones. The core of this threat is exactly the same as light ground attack aircraft during the cold war. Yes their weapons are more accurate but for aa they are a far easier target because the weapons carrying ones are big enough to easily spot with radar and unlike manned aircraft are far slower and less manouverable.

 

[keas66]

3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Two issue going forward with APS going forward. Does it simply cost two much to deploy at scale? And can the radar be jammed, and or itself be used to guide a missile to the tank.

The thing I wonder about APS systems is  keeping them reloaded in a intense battle scenerio .  Maybe you can swarm a APS protected system with  a dozen cheap AT weapons  and exhaust the APS system - then finally take out the tank  .

[Elmar Bijlsma]

27 minutes ago, sross112 said:

If we are mothballing the tanks, I vote for POWER ARMOR!!!!!!! Now it is only a matter of deciding:

...

If these options are not logistically friendly or something I guess mechs will suffice.  

I am not an unreasonable guy. Behold! The compromise solution: Mech riding Elementals.

 

[holoween]

Just now, dan/california said:

Two issue going forward with APS going forward. Does it simply cost two much to deploy at scale? And can the radar be jammed, and or itself be used to guide a missile to the tank.

It certainly could be jammed if you get a large enough emitter close enough but thats a stationary soft target advertising itself to everyone so its going to get artied quite early on.

And you could possibly get radar homing missiles against aps that constantly transmitt but theyre already starting to get "sleepmodes" where the radar is cued by passive sensors and only then activated to intercept the threat.

And yes its expensive but youre making afvs practically immune to infantry at fire so thats quite a bit of value

[Aragorn2002]

2 hours ago, kraze said:

Because russians were "fighting" mostly civilians.

It doesn't matter what quality of your troops or their gear is when they get medals for literally massacring unarmed folk.

Kraze, I've just watched the documentary 'Winter on Fire, Ukraine's fight for freedom'. Were these Berkut bastards ever punished for their crimes or did they escape to Russia and are they now part of that army of scum?

[holoween]

6 minutes ago, keas66 said:

The thing I wonder about APS systems is  keeping them reloaded in a intense battle scenerio .  Maybe you can swarm a APS protected system with  a dozen cheap AT weapons  and exhaust the APS system - then finally take out the tank  .

A tank can hold more aps charges than an entire infantry platoon can carry at weapons.

Edited March 25, 2022 by holoween

[akd]

@sburke

Quote

Individual senior officers are awarded the star of the Hero of Russia for severe wounds or posthumously. So Denis Shishov, the commander of the 11th Air Assault Brigade, wounded during the assault on Kakhovka, became a “hero”. His “feat” took place on February 25, and the news about the award appeared only two weeks later. Let’s quote:

“a paratrooper from Buryatia with wound to the head repulsed seven enemy attacks during a special operation to protect the Donbas”

 

On the list already?

Aftermath in Berdiansk today:

One Alligator at rest on the shallow bottom of the Azov, fuel storage facility still on fire.  Note that the port appears to be almost completely abandoned (don’t even see emergency vehicles fighting the fire, probably because of all the munitions that were thrown around) and that the merchant ship that has been there for days appears to be getting ready to depart as well.

Edited March 25, 2022 by akd

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, holoween said:

I dont buy the cant shoot down drones argument.

Autocannons with airburst rounds are quite capable in dealing with small drones. And short/medium range anti air missile are very easily capable of dealing with medium drones. The core of this threat is exactly the same as light ground attack aircraft during the cold war. Yes their weapons are more accurate but for aa they are a far easier target because the weapons carrying ones are big enough to easily spot with radar and unlike manned aircraft are far slower and less manouverable.

 

It is not a question of "can't or can" it is a question of comparative "can".  Is it easier for a UAV/UGS to find their targets, be they kinetic or ISR?  Or is it easier for C-UAV/UGV systems to find their targets?  Right now the former is proving more true than the latter.

We should not, and there is growing evidence that we cannot, simply wish away the realities of unmanned systems on the battlefield, or that they are here to stay.  I get the sense from some corners - and here I am talking military professionals- that they want to sweep the UAVs from the field in a "real war" so we can all go back to normal business.  The alarming trend in all of our observations, at least since 2014, is than we cannot.

Finally technology trends are on the side of unmanned systems.  More miniaturization, greater processing power, smaller better cameras, longer and lighter battery life leading to increased endurance, more potent explosives technology meaning higher lethality in smaller packages and, the big one...decreasing comparative costs per unit. Everything that is giving one a slimmer, better cellphone is driving unmanned systems farther and faster.   

[Kinophile]

Drones and wing-ding ECMs and mutually supporting, emotionally reconciled, kum-by-yah integrated digital systems with overtly tactically sensitive AI are all very fine - but if theres a naughty boy hold up in a house a dang 50mm ain't gonna cut it.

Gimme a 120 one-shot and move on to the next threat. And ain't no vehicle gonna carry that barrel better than a tank.

[holoween]

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

It is not a question of "can't or can" it is a question of comparative "can".  Is it easier for a UAV/UGS to find their targets, be they kinetic or ISR?  Or is it easier for C-UAV/UGV systems to find their targets?  Right now the former is proving more true than the latter.

We should not, and there is growing evidence that we cannot, simply wish away the realities of unmanned systems on the battlefield, or that they are here to stay.  I get the sense from some corners - and here I am talking military professionals- that they want to sweep the UAVs from the field in a "real war" so we can all go back to normal business.  The alarming trend in all of our observations, at least since 2014, is than we cannot.

Finally technology trends are on the side of unmanned systems.  More miniaturization, greater processing power, smaller better cameras, longer and lighter battery life leading to increased endurance, more potent explosives technology meaning higher lethality in smaller packages and, the big one...decreasing comparative costs per unit. Everything that is giving one a slimmer, better cellphone is driving unmanned systems farther and faster.   

I think itw quite indicative that the massive supply collumn north west of kiev never got attacked with drones even though it should have been an easy target. So at least the ukrainians are still keeping out of aa coverage with their drones and i dont see why this should be any different for any other nation.

Also drones only really have a capability advantedge over manned systems in staying power. An apache can do everything an attack drone can except stay over the battlefield for 24 hours. A drone can also be risked more but a drone shot down is still a weapons system out of action even if it doesnt cost a soldiers life.

[The_Capt]

11 minutes ago, keas66 said:

The thing I wonder about APS systems is  keeping them reloaded in a intense battle scenerio .  Maybe you can swarm a APS protected system with  a dozen cheap AT weapons  and exhaust the APS system - then finally take out the tank  .

If we are talking about those "pop-up claymore" thingys, there are literally a dozen ways around this technology.  Spoofs and decoys that trigger the system, smart munitions that carry smart sub-munitions - so DPICM with fins, stand-off EFP, stealth systems that the APS cannot see and failing that, how about just good old fashion PGM artillery cued and guided in by unmanned ISR.  And that is just the flying stuff.  UGV can do all sorts of weird stuff that APS is not set up to deal with.

And then there is the harsh realities we are seeing in Ukraine, right now.  I don't need to hit your fancy whizz bang tank with the Xmas tree-light defensive system, I just need to hit enough boring old trucks/re-fuelers until the M1000 super MBT runs out of gas, ammo or both.  So now the problem is not simply area defence of my F ech, it the 100kms of LOC behind it, especially when the range of some of these system are capable of hitting at those ranges.