How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[akd]

Chechens and not Chechens in Mariupol (presumably DPR “regulars” based on reasonable uniform and somewhat older guns).

 

Edited March 23, 2022 by akd

[John Kettler]

5 hours ago, db_zero said:

The performance, efficiency and effectiveness of the Russian army is beyond comprehension and by definition the Chinese military is suspect.

How will one model them after this fiasco is beyond me…

In the original CM BB there were mechanics for Russian command and control issues. 
 

You may need to add units that shoot fleeing soldiers to boost morale.

In WW2 the Russians used penal battalions. It was mentioned that people arrested for protesting the war would be drafted.

Will we see a return of penal battalions?

Well if nothing else the Russians and China put on the best parades. I even saw a blurb that Putin didn’t care about the number of men lost as he was upset at the number of vehicles lost as it means no parade this year.

Wonder if this guy is in Ukraine right about now….

https://youtu.be/0rAHrHd2lcw

db_zero,

It would be fascinating to see how well Tamanskaya and the other parade darlings performed relative to equivalent line units, bearing in mind they don't have all the best kit, personnel or manning levels.

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited March 24, 2022 by John Kettler

[Harmon Rabb]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

"falling" out of a fifth-floor window is known to a have a serious detrimental effect on your heart.  If I were Shoigu, I'd have been on one of those flights to UAE.

On the subject of high profile Russian defections.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/23/putin-adviser-anatoly-chubais-quits-leaves-russia-invasion-ukraine

[OldSarge]

Apparently, the morale problems go higher up the ranks.

 

Quote

A rare face-to-face meeting between Russian and US military officials last week led to an “outburst” of emotion from a normally stoic Russian general, a “revealing moment” that the Americans present believe hinted at larger morale problems in Russia’s military, according to a closely held US military readout of what transpired.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/23/politics/us-russia-general-meeting/index.html

[Vet 0369]

2 hours ago, Fenris said:

Someone was asking about under barrel grenade launchers somewhere in the thread... Well here's some being used to do something

Yes, they’re “being used for something.” I don’t know what they’re being used for though. My analysis  from having used the M203 under-barrel and M79 (blooper) grenade launchers in the Marines is that this was a pretend display. First, what were the firing at? They didn’t use any sights, and fired using the knee or thigh instead of the shoulder, so they weren’t aiming at anything. And yes, I know they can be accurately used without the sights, but only by a very experienced Grenadier who has practiced it a lot, not by the average infantryman either Marine or soldier. Even the discharge didn’t sound right. It sounded more like a rifle discharge than the “bloop” of a grenade launcher. Maybe I’ve been away from them for too long, but it smells of BS to me.

NOTE: I’m using an iPad, so that could be the issue with the sounds, and I didn’t see a rifle cartridge ejected, so I could be wrong.

[dan/california]

Was referring to the CNN article a couple of post up, I crossed up the quote process

 

When You stick your sensitive bits in a meat grinder it damages your mood.

Edited March 23, 2022 by dan/california

[John Kettler]

2 hours ago, Thomm said:

Re. Kinzhal.

I come up with crazy numbers for the kinetic energy.

500 kg warhead traveling at 12300 km/h (Mach 10):

    0.5 * 500.0 * (12300./3.6)**2 = 2.918403e+09

M1 tank (70 t) travelling at 70 km/h:

    0.5 * 70000.0 * (70./3.6)**2 = 1.323302e+07 J

Arleigh Burke-class destroyer (8300 t) travelling at 30 kt:

    0.5 * 8300 * 1000 * 15.9**2 = 1.049162e+09 J

So the equivalent of the Kinzhal missile warhead in terms of kinetic energy would be:

• 220 Abrams tanks travelling at full speed
• 2.8 Arleigh Burke-class destroyers travelling at flank speed

Does this make any sense?!

On the other hand 1 kg TNT has the equivalent of 4.184 MJ, so this kinetic energy corresponds to 697.5 kg TNT. Which sounds more plausible than 2.8 destroyers at flank speed.

Best regards,
Thomm

 

Thomm,

Much appreciate your analysis, but, as I noted in my admittedly simplistic analysis, there's more to the KE calculation than just the warhead, because, to the best of my knowledge, the whole missile arrives. Don't know how much of that remaining 500 kgs of all up system weight is fuel, but given the incredible aerodynamic stresses and heating loads on the airframe (utterly eclipsing things like the SR-71), aerostructure, propulsion and G/C could easily add another 200 kgs. Your numbers, though, suggest, that if a ship is hit directly, in a real sense it's immaterial whether or not the warhead detonates, for either way, the damage will be vast. Given the driver in the KE equation is V, adding a few hundred kgs to M won't exert much leverage on the result.

Regards,

John Kettler

[billbindc]

18 minutes ago, OldSarge said:

Apparently, the morale problems go higher up the ranks.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/23/politics/us-russia-general-meeting/index.html

Note: this isn't a story that illustrates bad morale. It it shows that even in the military, the propaganda put out by the Kremlin is working.

[slysniper]

5 hours ago, TheVulture said:

We've all seen factors in this war that probably wasn't in many military models before, or were only just starting to be appreciated. The willingness of Russian troops to abandon important equipment. The ability of light infantry with modern ATGMs to be able to hit high value targets. The use of drones in reconnaisance, fire control and as weapon systems. Crowd-sourcing intelligence from a friendly population. Modelling can (hopefully) be used to figure out how important each of these are and how they interact with each other.

Actually, I have felt that CMBS game have shown how this two aspects could affect the modern day battlefield.

The ability of light infantry with modern ATGMs to be able to hit high value targets.

I think CMBS has show that afv's are becoming tools of the past.

 

The use of drones in reconnaisance, fire control and as weapon systems.  

CMBS has reflected this in a small amount, but now seeing how it is affecting this war, the game is only giving a hint compared to the present power of drone warfare.

 

On the other hand no war game would have thought to model

The willingness of Russian troops to abandon important equipment.

Crowd-sourcing intelligence from a friendly population.

 

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Tactical combat drives operational results which in turn determine the strategic picture.  Having the best strategic or operational sim in the world means nothing if the tactical modeling for them isn't reasonably accurate.  My sense is that the people making these higher level sims don't appreciate that as much as they should. 

As mentioned earlier, every CM player knows that attacking with an inferior quality force over difficult terrain against a high quality and well armed defender is not easy even with superior numbers.  And even with superior numbers, a victory generally means lots and lots of friendly losses.

Now take this situation and add things like mud.  Now remove a combined arms element. 

And as Steve mentioned here, the game does help one understand how these factors affect the outcomes in battles.

And that in turn affects operational and  strategic decisions and outcomes.

 

I think there is way too many factors in war that are always present and unforeseen for war gaming to be a tool that can be used as a crystal ball as to what the future will bring.

But I do see it as a tool that can be used to practice concepts as to new uses of equipment and or tactics as to seeing if it would be a possible new method to employ and also as a tool to practice methods one is planning to use in the future.

So war games can help in planning and finding possible best methods in fighting conflicts. So there is a place for them , just not as lofty of a tool as some would hope for.

[akd]

Dumb Chechen bravado and Rus/DPR T-72B in Mariupol:

Rus/DPR (probably latter) troops in Mariupol:

Evacuation convoy out of Mariupol to the west:

 

Edited March 24, 2022 by akd

[dan/california]

 

7 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Note: this isn't a story that illustrates bad morale. It it shows that even in the military, the propaganda put out by the Kremlin is working.

The complete destruction of Russia's military reputation probably figures in somewhere.  The entire Russian mid and higher echelon has spent the their entire careers being feared and respected, now they are just despised as incompetent child murderers.  They will never get to go on vacation outside of Russia again either.

[OldSarge]

5 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Note: this isn't a story that illustrates bad morale. It it shows that even in the military, the propaganda put out by the Kremlin is working.

Working on the Russians or the US? I'd expect the US attaches are trained or experienced enough to know what to look out for. If it was targeting the US, it failed, the General certainly isn't getting a sympathy card from me anytime soon.

[dan/california]

Excuse me, incompetent and CORRUPT child murderers...

[John Kettler]

1 hour ago, akd said:

Part of it was linked earlier, but this whole NYT thread is worth reading:

 

akd,

Have been seriously concerned at least some of these in clear broadcasts might've been deception ops, but the multi-focal OSINT analyses seem to show that the hard-pressed Russian units are just that and are sounding off in clear. Rael time intelligence jackpot!

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited March 24, 2022 by John Kettler

[BeondTheGrave]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

A very good point.  Not only getting them wrong, but assuming that they are symmetrical.

We all are very used to Combat Mission's asymmetrical victory conditions, but I'm not sure if that's the gold standard for these big sims.  Maybe?  I have a feeling that they might not be.

great point, one of the real limitations (IMO) of most classic board wargames is this idea that you need symmetrical and known victory objectives in order to win. This, I suppose, makes opposed play and tournament style play much easier. But one of the strengths of CM is its ability to represent objectives which are asymmetric, as well as unknown to the opposing side. Sometimes even unknown to your own side! Often these games (not CM) have objectives that are more like push and pull. Capture Paris and hold it to the last turn, gain 50 vps. Either side can do it. But also its a very traditional objective pretty divorced from the realities of a campaign. Sure Paris was an important post-Normandy event, but very little hinged on taking the city. The German war effort didn't collapse when it fell and very little turned on that moment. Many wargames, though, go for these symbolic or prestige victories rather than say 'what actually turned the war in the Allies favor? When can we say the Allies won the battle for France and why? How do our objectives translate into the operational realities and strategic goals of either side?'

One (board) game I think does it well using symmetrical objectives is OCS Korea: The Forgotten War. There VPs are simply measured by controlling a series of geographic VP lines. Hold all five hexes at the end of game, you control the line. Each line just says the victory outcome right there. It represents in a smart way, IMO, the way the outcome of the war was decided basically by who had pushed further up the Peninsula. Final victory then is assessed by where the armies halt in place. The other VP system I quite like is in the COIN series. In Fire and the Lake, each of the four factions fights for something very different. The US tries to win the 'hearts and minds' while minimizing casualties and commitment. Meanwhile the NVA fights for territorial control. ARVN also fights for territorial control, but can boost their numbers by spending US aid on patronage rather than on the war effort, essentially embezzle aid. Its a hard game to master because you need to know both your victory condition as well as three others, but its smart. It makes for a fun 'push pull' dynamic in which every player is working for his own ends. 

IMO a lot of games ought to consider ways of breaking out of the traditional molds for their design. Even if you keep the hex-and-counter layout, there is so much more that can be done to fully capture the spirit of a conflict. 

[Cobetco]

two interesting videos.

 

 

[billbindc]

10 minutes ago, OldSarge said:

Working on the Russians or the US? I'd expect the US attaches are trained or experienced enough to know what to look out for. If it was targeting the US, it failed, the General certainly isn't getting a sympathy card from me anytime soon.

Sorry, meant working on that general. 

[John Kettler]

4 hours ago, dan/california said:

Garbage in, garbage out, it is the oldest rule in coding.

dan/california,

Long before there was coding, it was ever true, though not necessarily phrased that way. The odds of getting a good result from any kind of decision based on faulty assumptions, bad data, poor judgment, wishful thinking, ideology, even unwillingness to accept physical reality, are very small and potentially catastrophic. Have seen one recently in which an all-female engineering firm designed a bridge based on, so help me, feminized PC math, not classic STEM. It didn't end well. 

Regards,

John Kettler

[Vet 0369]

2 hours ago, sburke said:

"falling" out of a fifth-floor window is known to a have a serious detrimental effect on your heart.  If I were Shoigu, I'd have been on one of those flights to UAE.

Perhaps he was.

[Vet 0369]

1 hour ago, akd said:

Chechens and not Chechens in Mariupol (presumably DPR “regulars” based on reasonable uniform and somewhat older guns).

 

Ahaaaa, the “old clown car” deception where they come out of a building, walk a bit, make a left through the building and enter back into the the back door of the building they’re exiting from.

 Geo. Washington did that when he deceived the Redcoats in Boston by marching the same militia around and having them change their waistcoats when they were out of sight so the Redcoats thought they were different militias (June, 1775).

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, akd said:

Chechens and not Chechens in Mariupol (presumably DPR “regulars” based on reasonable uniform and somewhat older guns).

 

Looks like a blurred out dead civilian in the second video.

Steve

[DerKommissar]

Chieftain's dropping some logic bombs in this one.

[dan/california]

British MOD coming around to fact the Russians are NOT winning, or even tying really.

 

[John Kettler]

Haiduk,

Is there any news yet which would allow us to sort out Azov's ATGM attacks on one or two 03160 Raptor patrol craft? The original video was very hard for me to follow, because, as opposed to the usual jihadi video when ATGMs are used, it wasn't shot from at or near the launcher. Based on what little I could see, I couldn't tell you how many Raptors were present to begin with, and at best, would say one hit was obtained. Do we know for sure how many vessels were engaged, how many hits obtained? Any word on damage sustained on struck Raptor or damages sustained if two were hit? Were there any radio transmissions made by the ship or ships engaged? If so, what was said.

Regards,

John Kettler

[Battlefront.com]

ISW's assessment for March 23rd includes some grudgingly slow confirmation of the sorts of Russian casualties we've come up with from open sources and logical analysis of vehicle losses.  Nice to see the pros catching up:

Quote

Russian mobilization efforts are likely becoming urgent given Russian losses in the war. The Wall Street Journal cites an unnamed NATO official claiming that Russia has lost as many as 40,000 troops killed, wounded, or missing of the roughly 190,000 deployed to invade Ukraine.2 That assessment, which is plausible given previous estimates of Russian combat deaths, must be considered in the context of the assessment offered by an unnamed Department of Defense official on March 21 that Russia had committed a high proportion of its available battalion tactical groups to the war already.3 The protracting pause of Russian offensive operations in Ukraine and increasing anecdotal reporting of breakdowns in the morale and capability of Russian combat units all accord with these assessments. These reports and assessments collectively suggest that Russia may not be able to find new combat power with which to regain offensive momentum for weeks or even months.

And this interesting tidbit at the end of the report:

Quote

Supporting Effort #3—Kherson and advances northward and westward: Russian forces in and around Kherson and Mykolayiv, as well as those advancing on Kryvyih Ryh and Zaporizhiya, did not conduct significant offensive operations in the past 24 hours.15 Ukrainian military intelligence reported that Russian forces are preparing to block the Kerch Bridge to prevent Russians from leaving Crimea.16 The GUR claims that this measure is a response to panic among Russians in Crimea, particularly those who moved to the peninsula after 2014, especially among the families of Russian military and government personnel. We have no independent verification of these GUR reports.

If accurate, this indicates that there's a lot more awareness amongst Russian citizens about how badly the war is going than we might think.  If they believed the hype coming from state media they would not be looking to vacate "Russian" territory.  That sounds like they think Crimea might eventually become Ukrainian again.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-23

Steve