How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[akd]

23 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

There is some awarness, Belarusian and Russian troops, moved to Gomel area can try in nearest 24-48 hours to attack in Volhyn oblast to cut off the roads from Poland or even take control over the part of Ukrainian-Polish border. As if Putin put the ultimatum to Lukashenko - either you involve own army, or...

Sounds like a massive equipment donation program in the making.

[The Steppenwulf]

2 minutes ago, chris talpas said:

One has to wonder about the motivation level of any Belarusian forces, especially if they run into the expected fierce resistance.

Big unknown - as I've previously queried, we simply don't know what functioning UA forces and TD battalions are out there in the west of Ukraine and, in this case, could move to form effective blocking force in Volhyn oblast.

[womble]

6 minutes ago, chris talpas said:

Wouldn't a Russian/Belarusian operation open the way for them to once again suffer heavy losses as they push into previously unconquered territory?  I doubt they would be effective at cutting off supply unless they cozied up to the Polish border but that would be a new round of escalation and an awful lot of territory to try and hold. 

One has to wonder about the motivation level of any Belarusian forces, especially if they run into the expected fierce resistance.

 

Yeah. The local defense brigades in that area haven't had to do any fighting yet, and have had 3 weeks of full-war prep time. The Belarusian troops aren't as well equipped, trained, supported or motivated as the Russians were. Genitals, meet blender.

[panzermartin]

Teslas are not made for war. Keep your batteries charged  just in case 

 

[DesertFox]

 

 

There is no longer a railway connection between Ukraine and Belarus - head of Ukrzaliznytsia (pravda.com.ua)

Edited March 20, 2022 by DesertFox

[DesertFox]

 

 

[DesertFox]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

There is some awarness, Belarusian and Russian troops, moved to Gomel area can try in nearest 24-48 hours to attack in Volhyn oblast to cut off the roads from Poland or even take control over the part of Ukrainian-Polish border. As if Putin put the ultimatum to Lukashenko - either you involve own army, or...

Something seems to be in the making...

 

 

[sburke]

7 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

I was expecting Chickens

[dan/california]

Still to be determined if it is attack on Ukraine, or rebellion in Belarus.

4 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Something seems to be in the making...

 

 

 

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

I find the ISW reports some of the best out there.  However, I take issue with their final paragraph of the summary portion.  The bit starting with this:

This is apparently where Russia wants the war to head towards.  It is entirely possible that is what will happen and also possible that it could remain in that state for quite a bit of time.  But it is also possible that either Russia loses its ability to continue fighting in this manner and sees its forces collapse (Imperial Russian Army 1917) or get so close to it that Russia agrees to a cease fire that Ukraine finds acceptable (Imperial Germany 1918).  Another alternative, which they do hint at, is that due to losses/exhaustion Ukraine agrees to a cease fire that Russia finds acceptable (Iran 1988)

I don't mind ISW not exploring these other two options, but not mentioning them as alternatives to their dire concerns about stalemate is... well... an incomplete analysis.  Doesn't matter how remote they think the alternatives might be, they should be mentioned.  Especially because I think either of these are more likely than the Ukrainian surrender possibility ISW mentioned.

Just my 2 cents.

Steve

As I noted earlier in this thread, analyses of the long war possibilities tend to be woefully lacking in taking into account the economic dimensions Russia is facing. It's partly understandable because Putin has been quite adept at maintaining and using frozen conflicts to pursue his agenda and observers are still somewhat mesmerized by the experience. This time, the pressures are going to be quite extraordinarily different I and personally doubt that Ukraine's ability to fight the war runs out before Moscow's does.

[sross112]

War in Ukraine posted a new video with information for the last 24 hours: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP2QApi8G2TKc8NZmeDWSUg

In the video he states that Ukrainian forces blew the floodgates on a damn and flooded the river to the west of Kiev, cutting off the 2 RA bridgeheads that had been established a few days ago. He advised that the river will be a km wide.

Crush the bridgeheads or use them as helicopter bait for manpads? Imagine they will crush them to free up forces.

[DesertFox]

 

 

[DesertFox]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Still to be determined if it is attack on Ukraine, or rebellion in Belarus.

 

Yeah but she is no random twitter gal, but People's Deputy of Ukraine.

 

[danfrodo]

I hope the confidence many of us feel vs Belarus army is not hubris -- the gods punish hubris.  So If they are staging at Gomel that is a long way from being able to cut supply lines.  They have to move a long way west and will be spotted.  Once they turn south UKR will know where they will cross the border. 

So what are they up to?  Maybe cut supply lines by attacking south to the west of Kyiv.  Maybe protect left flank of the RU western Kyiv forces.  Maybe go east of the Dnieper to try to solidify the contested areas b/w chernihiv to bovary. 

I think this could be trouble just due to shear volume of forces if they move south to the east of the Dnieper. 

If they go west and then south (to cut Polish supply chain) they'll probably get ambushed every 5 km once they cross the border -- so I am hoping they do this.  Nice long columns that need to make big advances.

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I hope the confidence many of us feel vs Belarus army is not hubris -- the gods punish hubris.  So If they are staging at Gomel that is a long way from being able to cut supply lines.  They have to move a long way west and will be spotted.  Once they turn south UKR will know where they will cross the border. 

So what are they up to?  Maybe cut supply lines by attacking south to the west of Kyiv.  Maybe protect left flank of the RU western Kyiv forces.  Maybe go east of the Dnieper to try to solidify the contested areas b/w chernihiv to bovary. 

I think this could be trouble just due to shear volume of forces if they move south to the east of the Dnieper. 

If they go west and then south (to cut Polish supply chain) they'll probably get ambushed every 5 km once they cross the border -- so I am hoping they do this.  Nice long columns that need to make big advances.

I am actually hoping Belarus just has a nice little rebellion instead. But if they are getting more involved wouldn't it make more sense to use their logistics to reinforce on of the current attacks? Putting more troops in the field just seems idiotic when you can't supply the ones that are already committed. Of course that would be in keeping with the rest of the planning of this war. If the troops being ordered to attack don't rebel, though, right after they are committed would be a great time for the very large opposition in Belarus to kick one off.

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I am actually hoping Belarus just has a nice little rebellion instead. But if they are getting more involved wouldn't it make more sense to use their logistics to reinforce on of the current attacks? Putting more troops in the field just seems idiotic when you can't supply the ones that are already committed. Of course that would be in keeping with the rest of the planning of this war. If the troops being ordered to attack don't rebel, though, right after they are committed would be a great time for the very large opposition in Belarus to kick one off.

Ah, yeah, you are probably right.  Use Belarus to secure supply lines & maybe RU units even take some Belarus BMPs & tanks.  I sure hope the Belarus military stages a coup.  That's the only hope Belarus has to not be treated the same as Putin's regime. 

[billbindc]

14 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I hope the confidence many of us feel vs Belarus army is not hubris -- the gods punish hubris.  So If they are staging at Gomel that is a long way from being able to cut supply lines.  They have to move a long way west and will be spotted.  Once they turn south UKR will know where they will cross the border. 

So what are they up to?  Maybe cut supply lines by attacking south to the west of Kyiv.  Maybe protect left flank of the RU western Kyiv forces.  Maybe go east of the Dnieper to try to solidify the contested areas b/w chernihiv to bovary. 

I think this could be trouble just due to shear volume of forces if they move south to the east of the Dnieper. 

If they go west and then south (to cut Polish supply chain) they'll probably get ambushed every 5 km once they cross the border -- so I am hoping they do this.  Nice long columns that need to make big advances.

Does anyone know where I could find a good analysis of the effective (emphasis on effective) strength Belarus would have to send to Ukraine?

[dan/california]

If Belarus gets even mildly rebellious the Russians around Kiev would just be DONE. This needs to be encouraged in every possible way. Could the EU do something to help the exiled Belorussian opposition leader look more significant? Some sort of guarantee of support if Lukashenko got the boot and she was installed in the government? To reiterate this is THE fastest way to end the war with a total defeat for Putin, and should be pursued in every possible way.

[danfrodo]

Good thoughts from "the night crew" -- that's what I call the folks that post while UKR sleeps.  Dan/CA, your point is excellent.  Trying to undermine Belarus dictator seems like a cheap way to make a big, nonlinear event in this war.  how possible is that?  how unpopular is his regime and the war?

Earlier post says the train folks don't like the war.

[akd]

22 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I hope the confidence many of us feel vs Belarus army is not hubris -- the gods punish hubris.

It’s not so much competency (although there are certainly questions there), but take the motivation of the average Russian contract soldier to fight and die in Ukraine and divide that by like 1000 for the average Belarusian conscript for same.

Edited March 20, 2022 by akd

[DesertFox]

6 minutes ago, dan/california said:

If Belarus gets even mildly rebellious the Russians around Kiev would just be DONE. This needs to be encouraged in every possible way. 

Let´s hope so. How it must feel to have orks in your neighbourhood here:

 

 

[dan/california]

Well he had to become Putin's new pet a year or two ago to get the help to put down a massive civil uprising. Putting it down with clubs, bullets, and torturing people didn't exactly make him better liked.

Edited March 20, 2022 by dan/california

[Fenris]

This sort of thing must be good for morale and motivation.  Something I really doubt the RF forces will ever see.  Another little factor favouring UKR in the equation.

 

[The Steppenwulf]

53 minutes ago, sross112 said:

Ukrainian forces blew the floodgates on a damn and flooded the river to the west of Kiev,

Reminder that this is what the German defending forces did in the Cotentin peninsula in Normandy '44. It was a very effective tactic that greatly slowed the Allies advance.

[Zveroboy1]

8 hours ago, Homo_Ferricus said:

Liveumap has been painting a lot of areas, namely in the south of the country and north of Luhansk with solid red.

Yes not only Liveuamap, even the wikipedia map which is usually fairly conservative and probably always 2-3 days behind events is showing quite a lot of changes.

I am not sure what to believe now. This might get reverted back to a previous version where Russian advances are less dramatic, but what's shown here doesn't really reflect the consensus I have been reading lately about the total absence of progress of the Russian army.

People were cheering about Russians pulling back from Kherson but actually what seems to be happening is more likely them giving up their thrust to nowhere along a northern axis towards that nuclear plant. And instead they have shifted their advance eastward on the north side of the Dniepr?

And what about Chernihiv? Is it under siege? Similarly Sumy and Sievierodonetsk look almost encircled.