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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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UKR soldier got light injury during the combat, looks like Kyiv direction. GO Pro camera footage

Translatiion:

- bitch, he fu..g fires at me!

- brother! Don't move, sit there! 

- Sit, Li... !

-  I'm "300" ( code "wounded"), I'm "300", guys! Do you copy that? 

 

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22 minutes ago, dan/california said:

No dispersion, and no attempt at overhead cover. Is the russian army out of plywood and sand bags, too.

Have you seen the price of plywood lately?! Probably be cheaper to pay a Ukrainian farmer to tow a smashed up MTLB over the top of your hole!

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21 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Russian MoD claims this is footage of their Kinzahl missile strike.  It was geolocated to be in the village of Topolske, south west of Izyum.  Apparently it is a chicken farm. 

The Russians really don't like chickens, do they... First the close combat assault with the sticks, but apparently that was beaten back, so they now have to call in artillery against the feathery fiends.

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1 minute ago, Bulletpoint said:

The Russians really don't like chickens, do they... First the close combat assault with the sticks, but apparently that was beaten back, so they now have to call in artillery against the feathery fiends.

you have to suppress the chickens before renewing the assault.

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Just now, sburke said:

you have to suppress the chickens before renewing the assault.

Don't be silly.  One should expect the chickens to just hop in the oven all by themselves.  You know, because the really don't want to live and instead want to be dinner.

Damn, I know this is a metaphor, but it is making me a bit hungry for chicken.

Steve

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3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Don't be silly.  One should expect the chickens to just hop in the oven all by themselves.  You know, because the really don't want to live and instead want to be dinner.

Damn, I know this is a metaphor, but it is making me a bit hungry for chicken.

Steve

should I post the Hound with his famous chicken quote again? 

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16 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

 

Yea!  They returned to making these PDFs!  Downloading them as web archives kinda sucks.

From the first paragraph:

Quote

Ukrainian forces have defeated the initial Russian campaign of this war. That campaign aimed to conduct airborne and mechanized operations to seize Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, and other major Ukrainian cities to force a change of government in Ukraine. That campaign has culminated. Russian forces continue to make limited advances in some parts of the theater but are very unlikely to be able to seize their objectives in this way. The doctrinally sound Russian response to this situation would be to end this campaign, accept a possibly lengthy operational pause, develop the plan for a new campaign, build up resources for that new campaign, and launch it when the resources and other conditions are ready. The Russian military has not yet adopted this approach. It is instead continuing to feed small collections of reinforcements into an ongoing effort to keep the current campaign alive. We assess that that effort will fail.

These guys are dangerously close to being sarcastic with the part in bold.  "The Russian military has not yet adopted this approach"!!  That's pretty funny.

Steve

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2 hours ago, Hapless said:

Tanks. Or, a tank. Sorry for Reddit again.

What struck me most was the number of autoloader-ejected cases on the ground at both firing positions- they're clearly not playing shoot-and-scoot.

That's not necessarily an outright bad thing in the right environment, but it seems like a poor life choice what with the incoming at 1:02. Also looks like the first position is a prepared tank hole so maybe they're playing "Donbass Static" rules.

Note that the shot that almost hits their tank appears to come from the opposite direction from where they are firing toward.  Either friendly fire or very complex situation.  Also, that damn slag heap or whatever has been fought over so much over the years.

Edited by akd
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1 minute ago, billbindc said:

"Culmination"

 

Nice touch ;-). Although I guess the campaign had surpassed it's point of culmination for quite a while already.
 

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yea!  They returned to making these PDFs!  Downloading them as web archives kinda sucks.

From the first paragraph:

These guys are dangerously close to being sarcastic with the part in bold.  "The Russian military has not yet adopted this approach"!!  That's pretty funny.

Steve

Lol even giving advice in good faith 🤣 Perhaps they're addressing the Russian generals staff with some 'trolling'? 

This part was also striking imo: "It is instead continuing to feed small collections of reinforcements into an ongoing effort to keep the current campaign alive. We assess that that effort will fail."

Although we've seen plenty of 'piecemeal feedings' since the war started, it's interesting to see the ISW qualifying the theatre wide effort as such and basically calling it a failed campaign. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

This reminds us that Putin might be deposed by a group of people that is even more violent minded towards Ukraine than Putin is.  Fortunately, history shows that the more radical a group is the less likely they are to succeed.  Radicalism does not lend itself to clear and rational thinking, so they will make mistakes enough to cause their own downfall.

IMO a very realistic vision of the 'Putin out' scenario involves a civil war, either with Putin and his supporters against a new faction, or some variation of coup-and-countercoup. Worth remembering that the Beer Hall was not the only Putsch after WW1. In fact the first social disturbance was a red revolution on the streets of major German cities. 

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9 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

IMO a very realistic vision of the 'Putin out' scenario involves a civil war, either with Putin and his supporters against a new faction, or some variation of coup-and-countercoup. Worth remembering that the Beer Hall was not the only Putsch after WW1. In fact the first social disturbance was a red revolution on the streets of major German cities. 

With multiple distant regions trying to leave, and then we will see how much the Chinese decide to take...

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I find the ISW reports some of the best out there.  However, I take issue with their final paragraph of the summary portion.  The bit starting with this:

Quote

Stalemate will likely be very violent and bloody, especially if it protracts. Stalemate is not armistice or ceasefire. It is a condition in war in which each side conducts offensive operations that do not fundamentally alter the situation.

This is apparently where Russia wants the war to head towards.  It is entirely possible that is what will happen and also possible that it could remain in that state for quite a bit of time.  But it is also possible that either Russia loses its ability to continue fighting in this manner and sees its forces collapse (Imperial Russian Army 1917) or get so close to it that Russia agrees to a cease fire that Ukraine finds acceptable (Imperial Germany 1918).  Another alternative, which they do hint at, is that due to losses/exhaustion Ukraine agrees to a cease fire that Russia finds acceptable (Iran 1988)

I don't mind ISW not exploring these other two options, but not mentioning them as alternatives to their dire concerns about stalemate is... well... an incomplete analysis.  Doesn't matter how remote they think the alternatives might be, they should be mentioned.  Especially because I think either of these are more likely than the Ukrainian surrender possibility ISW mentioned.

Just my 2 cents.

Steve

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1st separate assault company of Volunteer Ukrainian Corps (former Right Sector) UAV recon team targets Russian troops for artillery of 93rd mech.brigade

Comms conversation

- enemy column is approaching... You should try to delay them with artillery... Our aviation will arrive in 30 minutes

artillery platoon commander:

- Salvo! 300 ! 30 !! 3 !!! (code command for artillery firing similar to ready-steady-fire)

 

 

Edited by Haiduk
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There is some awarness, Belarusian and Russian troops, moved to Gomel area can try in nearest 24-48 hours to attack in Volhyn oblast to cut off the roads from Poland or even take control over the part of Ukrainian-Polish border. As if Putin put the ultimatum to Lukashenko - either you involve own army, or...

Edited by Haiduk
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good lord if true the degree of folly only gets worse.

 

As to Putin's threat.  WTF is he gonna do?  Lukashenko is the one holding the cards now.  Putin tries anything and the whole Kiev offensive is done.  Russia will have a hostile rear to contend with and no supplies whatsoever... but then that would fit with the game plan so far.

Edited by sburke
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Wouldn't a Russian/Belarusian operation open the way for them to once again suffer heavy losses as they push into previously unconquered territory?  I doubt they would be effective at cutting off supply unless they cozied up to the Polish border but that would be a new round of escalation and an awful lot of territory to try and hold. 

One has to wonder about the motivation level of any Belarusian forces, especially if they run into the expected fierce resistance.

 

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