How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Bulletpoint]

1 minute ago, Aragorn2002 said:

My bet is that Zelensky is willing to grind it out as long as needed. There's no alternative really. All this talk about peace or a cease fire. Completely unrealistic. It's victory or death.

This has been the narrative so far, and Zelensky has been in control of it. But it could quickly change to "the Ukrainian people keep suffering because their president is too stubborn to agree on peace terms... come on, just agree that the Russians withdraw and we go back to how it was before the war and people don't have to die".

I think that's the kind of pressure the Russians are hoping will save their day. Their best case scenario right now is probably to declare a kind of mulligan and that this whole war doesn't count. Then go back and re-arm.

And Putin saves face because he always said this wasn't a war anyway, just a special operation to prevent Ukraine from entering Nato.

[Panserjeger]

 

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

And Putin saves face because he always said this wasn't a war anyway, just a special operation to prevent Ukraine from entering Nato.

Actually he has said a lot more than that but he'll try to pretend he didn't

on the financial side

Wall Street’s Skittish Attitude Toward Putin Pays Off As Russia Default Looms (msn.com)

[Bulletpoint]

3 minutes ago, Panserjeger said:

 

Those things are massive. What would be the point of sending them to Ukraine - I am not an expert but I assume such huge AA missiles are meant to shoot down strategic bombers?

[kraze]

12 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

This always was his weak point and Putin knows where to beat

This is of course was made for this. Russian jet drop heavy bomb on the building of Dramatical Theater in Mariupol, where was a shelter for citizens. Hundrerds citizens with children hide there... The building ruined completely. There is unknown about casualties. Nobody can reach this place because of heavy shelling. Officially in Mariupol already lost more 1800 citizens, but real number of victims can be more 10000...

 

Again - this is an example of why Zelenskyy does not decide anything for Ukraine.

There is too much blood spilled.

If whatever paper he signs does not fly with people, especially soldiers, he will get kicked out immediately. Probably in a very quick military coup too.

And that's agreeing to anything short of total russian capitulation, freeing Crimea and Donbass with reparations paid.

Edited March 16, 2022 by kraze

[Fernando]

9 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Well we'll never know until it happens, but Baltic states are already in NATO and NATO troops in Baltic states.

Spain has some Leopard 2E and Pizarro IFV in Lithuania, and it seems we are going to reinforce them.

[Lethaface]

11 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

This always was his weak point and Putin knows where to beat

This is of course was made for this. Russian jet drop heavy bomb on the building of Dramatical Theater in Mariupol, where was a shelter for citizens. Hundrerds citizens with children hide there... The building ruined completely. There is unknown about casualties. Nobody can reach this place because of heavy shelling. Officially in Mariupol already lost more 1800 citizens, but real number of victims can be more 10000...

 

[Sgt Joch]

well actually the calculus is easy.

lets game out victory from a Ukrainian POV. Hoping that the Russian Army will just collapse is wishful thinking at this point IMHO. So question is whether the UKR army able to push Russian forces back to the border, recapture Donbas and Crimea?

if yes, in what time frame and at what cost in money, destruction to infrastructure, civilian and military casualties and is it worth the cost? then proceed.

if not, than the answer is obvious, negotiate the best deal you can get.

Edited March 16, 2022 by Sgt Joch

[sburke]

1 minute ago, kraze said:

Again - this is an example of why Zelenskyy does not decide anything for Ukraine.

There is too much blood spilled.

If whatever paper he signs does not fly with people, especially soldiers, he will get kicked out immediately. Probably in a very quick military coup too.

guaranteed way to never get in NATO or EU and it would play well in Russia.

[Panserjeger]

2 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Those things are massive. What would be the point of sending them to Ukraine - I am not an expert but I assume such huge AA missiles are meant to shoot down strategic bombers?

They can shoot down aircraft and cruise missiles at much higher altitudes than manpads are able to. 

[Haiduk]

3 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Those things are massive. What would be the point of sending them to Ukraine - I am not an expert but I assume such huge AA missiles are meant to shoot down strategic bombers?

This is usual S-300PT (tracked) or S-300V. We have S-300PT (wheeled) and some S-300V1

[kraze]

Just now, Sgt Joch said:

Hoping that the Russian Army will just collapse is wishful thinking at this point IMHO. 

Is that why Putin is sending syrians to the frontlines and pulling his troops from as far as Vladivostok?

[Lethaface]

6 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Those things are massive. What would be the point of sending them to Ukraine - I am not an expert but I assume such huge AA missiles are meant to shoot down strategic bombers?

Ukraine already has variants of S-300. They are effective against missiles and airplanes.

[kraze]

1 minute ago, sburke said:

guaranteed way to never get in NATO or EU and it would play well in Russia.

Ok, I'll repeat it once again - Russia doesn't care if we get in NATO or EU.

Russia attacked Ukraine in 2014 when it was predominantly AGAINST NATO (65%) and bordering on 50% for EU and having neutral status in Constitution.

Russia wants to fully occupy Ukraine. There's nothing else that will ever "play well" with Russia.

[Aragorn2002]

14 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

This has been the narrative so far, and Zelensky has been in control of it. But it could quickly change to "the Ukrainian people keep suffering because their president is too stubborn to agree on peace terms... come on, just agree that the Russians withdraw and we go back to how it was before the war and people don't have to die".

I think that's the kind of pressure the Russians are hoping will save their day. Their best case scenario right now is probably to declare a kind of mulligan and that this whole war doesn't count. Then go back and re-arm.

And Putin saves face because he always said this wasn't a war anyway, just a special operation to prevent Ukraine from entering Nato.

Perhaps so. But for Ukraine this a chance of once of a life time to free itself from the Russians. If they give in to Putin now, they're lost. Zelensky knows this. 

[Aragorn2002]

2 minutes ago, kraze said:

Ok, I'll repeat it once again - Russia doesn't care if we get in NATO or EU.

Russia attacked Ukraine in 2014 when it was predominantly AGAINST NATO (65%) and bordering on 50% for EU and having neutral status in Constitution.

Russia wants to fully occupy Ukraine. There's nothing else that will ever "play well" with Russia.

That.

[sburke]

1 minute ago, kraze said:

Ok, I'll repeat it once again - Russia doesn't care if we get in NATO or EU.

Russia attacked Ukraine in 2014 when it was predominantly AGAINST NATO (65%) and bordering on 50% for EU and having neutral status in Constitution.

Russia wants to fully occupy Ukraine. There's nothing else that will ever "play well" with Russia.

You missed the point.  A coup represents Ukraine not being a successful democracy.  Democracies don't settle political discussions with military coups.  For Russia the failure of democracy is EXACTLY what they want in Ukraine.

[Haiduk]

OFFICIAL ANSWER OF UKRAINE ON FT INFORMATION

This is a draft of Russian side wishes. No more. We have own position. 

 

Looks like Russian information pressure. 

 

 

Edited March 16, 2022 by Haiduk

[keas66]

7 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:

well actually the calculus is easy.

lets game out victory from a Ukrainian POV. Hoping that the Russian Army will just collapse is wishful thinking at this point IMHO. So question is whether the UKR army able to push Russian forces back to the border, recapture Donbas and Crimea?

if yes, in what time frame and at what cost in money, destruction to infrastructure, civilian and military casualties and is it worth the cost? then proceed.

if not, than the answer is obvious, negotiate the best deal you can get.

You are starting to sound like someone who would prefer that to be the way things went ?

[Bulletpoint]

1 minute ago, Lethaface said:

Ukraine already has variants of S-300. They are effective against missiles and airplanes.

I'm sure they are effective against many targets, but so are MANPADs etc. when it comes to low-flying attack aircraft or cruise missiles... these seem to be a bit overkill for those?

[LukeFF]

5 hours ago, Baneman said:

Isn't there at least one Moscow in the States ?
That could make for some tense double-checking of your targeting co-ordinates !

Yep, Moscow, Idaho. I've been there - lovely little city.

[Lethaface]

4 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:

well actually the calculus is easy.

lets game out victory from a Ukrainian POV. Hoping that the Russian Army will just collapse is wishful thinking at this point IMHO. So question is whether the UKR army able to push Russian forces back to the border, recapture Donbas and Crimea?

if yes, in what time frame and at what cost in money, destruction to infrastructure, civilian and military casualties and is it worth the cost? then proceed.

if not, than the answer is obvious, negotiate the best deal you can get.

Hoping for a collapse is not the same as actively facilitating a collapse. I don't have the privy info about nor make the decisions, but it does seem Ukraine is effectively fighting back. Let's say they can incur losses on the enemy which it can't sustain, at a cost 'sustainable' to Ukraine than why not kick 'the house of cards' down? Forgive the choice of words ;-).

Anyway only the Ukrainians can decide whether 'it' is worth it for them or what's best for them. 

 

[keas66]

3 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I'm sure they are effective against many targets, but so are MANPADs etc. when it comes to low-flying attack aircraft or cruise missiles... these seem to be a bit overkill for those?

https://missilethreat.csis.org/defsys/s-300/

Seems like they go far and high

[kraze]

5 minutes ago, sburke said:

You missed the point.  A coup represents Ukraine not being a successful democracy.  Democracies don't settle political discussions with military coups.  For Russia the failure of democracy is EXACTLY what they want in Ukraine.

Nobody cares what Russia wants.

Just like nobody wants to have another goddamn war with those pieces of **** in another 5 years.

And any agreement with russians means war again, again and again until Ukraine is no more and we get another 100 years of slavery.

So if it gets to coup (and I seriously hope it won't) in order for our nation to survive - then I'll be there on Bankova street supporting it.

Edited March 16, 2022 by kraze

[LukeFF]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I would bet money that any aircraft left on the tarmac in that second picture are damaged to the point of being a loss.  It looks like the 3 serviceable ones pulled out but the line of choppers outside those red squares are also knocked out.  That much metal flying around...

So there is no...

...wait for it...

...getting to the choppa?