How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[benpark]

The Soviet army in WWII had years to absorb and adapt to the lessons it was subjected to.

Modern armies are in a constant state of assessing the latest threats, and forming their strategies and forces around those perceptions. The previous narrative that the Russian army had made large advances in the past decade are probably valid, but they adapted in ways that are obviously not effective in this realm.

There are also underlying issues (logistics, as Steve has pointed out) that are long-standing. The under-utilization of artillery is welcome, but against the historical grain for the Russian army. I fear that it may come into greater play if this goes on longer.

The absolutely heroic performance of the Ukrainian military and people are also a huge factor they have to contend with that cannot be discounted. I would wager that the Russians had no idea what they were up against here.

Edited February 26, 2022 by benpark

[The_Capt]

36 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

This has come up in other threads in other contexts, but I suspect in hindsight Donn Starry's claims about force ratios will prove to be accurate. Within the 3:1-1:3 bracket force ratios dont matter much, individual actions and tactical decisions on the spot are more important. I wouldn't be surprised if we hear stories in the next few months of a half dozen Zvika Greengolds who held the pass against Russian attacks. If that Twitter thread about fragmented Russian BCT operations is accurate, it seems to me like most of these units are going in without proper support and without an overwhelming numerical advantage. Two Ukrainian platoons would probably place them within the 3:1 ratio against a Coy (+) element of a BCT. 

Unless increased lethality is pushing that ratio outward.  I am also starting to wonder about the metrics of air superiority.

[BeondTheGrave]

3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I am honestly starting to think that the whole Russian plan was a 48-72 push to Kyiv, take capital and the Ukrainians surrender.  Tactical formations all carry about 3-4 DOS after that operational level needs to be clicking and at least in these isolated cases it appear to not be.  Now the Russians may be doubling down on success letting the "weak and failed" go without but that is high risk, if for the only reason the whole world is watching Russian units caught with their pants down.

Seems like the case. Seems like Russia is still also banking on organized resistance ending when Kyiv falls. Or at least the opportunity to establish a puppet regime? But it seems hardly likely. Even if they capture that city this weekend, they have no control over virtually all of the rest of the countryside. Depending on the size of UA depots in the east, they could resist a long while yet, and anyway I doubt resupply is moving through Kyiv at this point anyway. 

Im inclined to agree with you Capt, seems like the best case scenario for Moscow at this point would be an Iraq style insurgency against a well armed, western backed, and very angry insurgency. And theyll struggle to get even that, this isn't 2003. More like the worst case for '91. 

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, db_zero said:

Unless the Russians start jamming or knocking out satellites, cell towers and making sure all land lines are cut you'll be able to send and receive communication.

Or maybe someone didn't think of it

I guess it was next to "gas" on the note on the fridge.  

In Crimea, Russia had hacked the cell phone system to a frankly stunning degree, I guess they figured "meh" on this one?

[borg]

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

Unless increased lethality is pushing that ratio outward.  I am also starting to wonder about the metrics of air superiority.

Many lessons to win at CMBS 

 

[Aragorn2002]

Polish football rivals have been united by Russia. The fans are all chanting “Russian whores” repeatedly!

[BeondTheGrave]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Unless increased lethality is pushing that ratio outward.  I am also starting to wonder about the metrics of air superiority.

Thats actually a good point I hadn't considered. Really something to think about. 

Someone one day (hopefully soon) is going to write a really good book on this. I hope to read it. 

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Seems like the case. Seems like Russia is still also banking on organized resistance ending when Kyiv falls. Or at least the opportunity to establish a puppet regime? But it seems hardly likely. Even if they capture that city this weekend, they have no control over virtually all of the rest of the countryside. Depending on the size of UA depots in the east, they could resist a long while yet, and anyway I doubt resupply is moving through Kyiv at this point anyway. 

Im inclined to agree with you Capt, seems like the best case scenario for Moscow at this point would be an Iraq style insurgency against a well armed, western backed, and very angry insurgency. And theyll struggle to get even that, this isn't 2003. More like the worst case for '91. 

Which will be really fun when they get to Western Ukraine and a 150 x 250 km belt of Carpathian mountains along borders of NATO nations. Seriously, who thought this was a good idea?  Did they workshop this at all?

[DesertFox]

12 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Same difference. Germany is using us to send them. What's wrong with you Germans anyway? 

Don´t know. As a german you can only feel ashamed by this governmental behaviour. Same with SWIFT ban for russia. Germany is still against it due to commercial reasons.

[db_zero]

6 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I guess it was next to "gas" on the note on the fridge.  

In Crimea, Russia had hacked the cell phone system to a frankly stunning degree, I guess they figured "meh" on this one?

may be another explanation. The US provided advanced tactical communication and command and control gear and training after 2104 and had time to analyze what Russia did in the Crimea. They may have and may continue to be providing some sort of support in the electronic and cyber spectrum area. That aspect is usually very hush-hush. 

I have no doubt Strategic, operational and tactical intelligence is being fed to the Ukrainians. Drones, recon assets operating in Europe and Satellites are undoubtedly operating at full speed.

Think the shoot down of 2 transports loaded with paratroopers was a chance encounter?

Edited February 26, 2022 by db_zero

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Unless increased lethality is pushing that ratio outward.  I am also starting to wonder about the metrics of air superiority.

I don't think that's the lesson we're getting from this war.  In past wars air superiority was achieved by a massive saturation of the enemy's air and anti-air systems.  Days, if not weeks, were spent degrading capabilities and destroying whatever survived in the process.  In areas that were of the most interest, the saturation would be the highest.

What we've seen in this war is almost no attempt by Russia to degrade Ukraine's air and anti-air capabilities before the war proper started.  This means Russian air power is playing catch-up on stuff it should have done by Thursday at the latest, ideally prior to that.

The Russian assumption that the Ukrainians would fold up quickly seems to have been especially true for the air portion of the war.

Steve

[Aragorn2002]

1 minute ago, DesertFox said:

Don´t know. As a german you can only feel ashamed by this governmental behaviour. Same with SWIFT ban for russia. Germany is still against it due to commercial reasons.

Well, Germany is vital for the safety of Europe, so I hope the Germans will take their responsibility and re-arm like mad. I love Germany, but don't understand it's behaviour anymore.

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, db_zero said:

may be another explanation. The US provided advanced tactical communication and command and control gear and training after 2104 and had time to analyze what Russia did in the Crimea. They may have and may continue to be providing some sort of support in the electronic and cyber spectrum area. That aspect is usually very hush-hush. 

I have no doubt Strategic, operational and tactical intelligence is being fed to the Ukrainians. Drones, recon assets operating in Europe and Satellites are undoubtedly operating at full speed

Hell I am talking about Twitter!  Come on, invasion 101 guys, cut the power, cut off communications and bring lots of gas, then be ready to stay for awhile.

[BeondTheGrave]

7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Which will be really fun when they get to Western Ukraine and a 150 x 250 km belt of Carpathian mountains along borders of NATO nations. Seriously, who thought this was a good idea?  Did they workshop this at all?

The thing I keep thinking is that phrase, is it SOF in origin?, "Fast is slow, slow is smooth, smooth is fast." 2003 took, what, 2 weeks from insertion to the toppling of the statue in Bagdad? The statue moment, while symbolic, wasn't even the end of the war either. IIRC there was still significant operations in the north which happened after that point. And that was a masterfully planned and executed operation against an enemy that, quite frankly, fought like it was already beaten. Were talkin about maybe 600km too, but otherwise a lot of similarities. 72 hours is a very bold timeframe. Pretty astounding really. 

One thing CM has taught me (hey isn't this a CM forum? Cool game) that I hadn't before appreciated is just how slow military operations really are. Your base of fire limits the forward edge of your advance, then your forward edge become the base of fire for the next leap. Troops have to move slow and sit for a while to gain a picture of the battlefield. Operationally speaking, the idea that your can just totally decapitate a country overnight is pretty astounding. He tried to do it all at once rather than move slowly step by step through an invasion plan like the US has done in the past. Is there a post Cold War example of a country collapsing overnight like Putin was hoping for? His strategy is like the guy who impatiently puts all his infantry on fast move and gets them shot to hell by concealed units. Mind boggling he could make such a big operational miscalculation, setting even the strategy or execution aside for a minute. 

Edited February 26, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[db_zero]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Hell I am talking about Twitter!  Come on, invasion 101 guys, cut the power, cut off communications and bring lots of gas, then be ready to stay for awhile.

Cut off Twitter? You want to start WW4?

Sounds like bad planning or too many bad assumptions.

Will this be another 1948 like Arab-Israeli fiasco where David beat Goliath or Russian-Finland fiasco? Stay tuned.

Edited February 26, 2022 by db_zero

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

I don't think that's the lesson we're getting from this war.  In past wars air superiority was achieved by a massive saturation of the enemy's air and anti-air systems.  Days, if not weeks, were spent degrading capabilities and destroying whatever survived in the process.  In areas that were of the most interest, the saturation would be the highest.

What we've seen in this war is almost no attempt by Russia to degrade Ukraine's air and anti-air capabilities before the war proper started.  This means Russian air power is playing catch-up on stuff it should have done by Thursday at the latest, ideally prior to that.

The Russian assumption that the Ukrainians would fold up quickly seems to have been especially true for the air portion of the war.

Steve

That is a good point, incompetency does not a principle make.  I am wondering about those Ukrainian UAVs.  We could not keep air superiority below 2000 feet in Iraq and I am wondering what it looks like over there now.

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, db_zero said:

Think the shoot down of 2 transports loaded with paratroopers was a chance encounter?

Very unlikely.  Ukraine has precious few aircraft and yet one of them got right to where it needed to be right when it needed to be there.  I'm not discounting Ukraine finding it on its own (after all, pretty much any radar blip is probably worth shooting at), but it sure would be easier if they got some info from an AWACs.  Which, definitely, would see an IL-76 from the moment it took off.

Steve

[DesertFox]

1 minute ago, Aragorn2002 said:

but don't understand it's behaviour anymore.

Me neither and I am native german.

[Aragorn2002]

3 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Me neither and I am native german.

Let's hope all our governments have got the message now, my friend. Time to take our responsibility.

Edited February 26, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[db_zero]

If this end up being a complete Russian fiasco I would hate to be the generals who will have to face Putin.

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Well, Germany is vital for the safety of Europe, so I hope the Germans will take their responsibility and re-arm like mad. I love Germany, but don't understand it's behaviour anymore.

SWIFT gets shut off, payments to Russia become almost impossible by design.  I doubt Russia will send gas to Germany to keep its houses warm out of kindness.  If they don't get paid, they won't ship.  I'm pretty sure that message has been made very clear to the German government in private.

This is the whole problem with appeasement.  It's just like blackmail.  You pay up once, you will have to keep paying up.  Some nations are finally figuring this out and deciding that now is the time to finally stand up to Putin's Russia.  Germany, having the most to lose, is not surprisingly dragging its feet the most.  But I think it will be shamed into it sooner rather than later.  Especially if Russia starts turning Kiev into Grozny.  Which, I'm afraid, is what is planned now that the ground war has pretty much failed.

Steve

[TheVulture]

2 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Let's hope all our governments have gotten the message now, my friend. Time to take our responsibility.

I think Putin was expecting much more of an anti-war movement in the west,  as with just about every war since Vietnam, which would limit governments abilities to respond diplomatically. But instead there has been virtual unanimity in support of Ukraine, even among the usual useful idiots. 

[danfrodo]

So I get up, US west coast time, do big dog walk in the woods, some chores, and then sit down to the most informative and clear thinking Ukraine war coverage available -- this thread! 

Y'all are really something.  Thanks much! 

[The_Capt]

On 2/26/2022 at 12:28 PM, db_zero said:

If this end up being a complete Russian fiasco I would hate to be the generals who will have to face Putin.

Oh, I am not so sure, the generals have all the guns.  The "spirited resistance of Kyiv" is making mainstream news now [I am noticing that mainstream news is about 6-12 hours behind the live feeds].  We will know this is really over when the NATO has to get assurances that Ukraine will not counter-attack into Russia.

Of course a completely upside down Russia is not great either.

Edited June 8, 2022 by The_Capt

[DesertFox]

Another vid of clueless russian kids