CINCUSAREUR concerned about Russian rapid deployment and interior lines

[Ivanov]

6 hours ago, GAZ NZ said:

I work with people from the UK and they have all been flooding to NZ to get away form the Violent Turkish, Eastern Europeans etc flooding the UK and all the migrants who sit on the benefits and do crime

That sounds like a very primitive internet propaganda. It's equally true as the Russian propaganda claims, that there are nazis in Kiev and that the Russian speakers were persecuted in Ukraine. Besides the "violent Turks" are not in the EU. 

Edited June 25, 2016 by Ivanov

[Sublime]

2 hours ago, LUCASWILLEN05 said:

I'd rather we didn't discuss Brexit or the Referendum  except in terms of how it might affect NATO interventionin EasternEurope. Otherwise please can we not dscuss it here. I know my views can be qcontroversial at times but t least they have some relevance on this forum.

This was an interesting thread and it would be nice to get bck on track gents :-)

You can have the entire thread and all similar im good

[Kinophile]

Disregard my above,  borked mobile post. 

Re @LUCASWILLEN05 you're correct,  this is veering off. 

I must point out though, again, that your primary examples and rationales for a NATO v RUS war are all grounded in WW2 thinking.  That immediately limits your ideas' credibility when discussing modern day situations and developments. 

For this ill informed footstool general at least... 

[Wicky]

1 hour ago, Ivanov said:

That sounds like a very primitive internet propaganda. It's equally true as the Russian propaganda claims, that there are nazis in Kiev and that the Russian speakers were persecuted in Ukraine. Besides the "violent Turks" are not in the EU. 

I concur - there's so much misinfo/disinfo that I didn't know where to begin debunking all the various claims put forth by GAZ NAZ.

[Ivanov]

1 hour ago, Wicky said:

I concur - there's so much misinfo/disinfo that I didn't know where to begin debunking all the various claims put forth by GAZ NAZ.

I just went through about 25% of the post and didn't have the stomach to continue any further. A typical modern day internet jabber.

[GAZ NZ]

I note u never went to the actual links I posted and watched anything I linked cause you are closed minded and afraid of being wrong

Always quick to personally attack people an not so quick to actually listen to information linked and clearly presented in those links by Americans I note of good stature

I'm not jabbering - I do not see you discrediting my links

My post is about the links which none of you have actually discussed or read

I thought this was an open minded forum but you all have your minds made up even when clear information is presented in an easy to watch or listen to manner and you refuse to look into it any further

Your loss lol

 

 

 

[GAZ NZ]

4 hours ago, Ivanov said:

That sounds like a very primitive internet propaganda. It's equally true as the Russian propaganda claims, that there are nazis in Kiev and that the Russian speakers were persecuted in Ukraine. Besides the "violent Turks" are not in the EU. 

Talking to people I know from the UK that are flooding into NZ is not propaganda

Its reality

The Violent Turkish gangs and Eastern Euro gangs now are all in the UK

I was talking about the UK not the EU

You seem to have trouble reading and understanding things correctly

 

[Kinophile]

It really seems that NATO has played nicely into Putin's hands, now giving him justification to army up some more divisions. 

Granted, they had to do something,  but it does seem to have escalated without signs of slowing. 

Edited June 25, 2016 by kinophile

[sburke]

31 minutes ago, GAZ NZ said:

I note u never went to the actual links I posted and watched anything I linked cause you are closed minded and afraid of being wrong

Always quick to personally attack people an not so quick to actually listen to information linked and clearly presented in those links by Americans I note of good stature

I'm not jabbering - I do not see you discrediting my links

My post is about the links which none of you have actually discussed or read

I thought this was an open minded forum but you all have your minds made up even when clear information is presented in an easy to watch or listen to manner and you refuse to look into it any further

Your loss lol

My jaw was already hitting the floor and my "nutter' proximity detector was screaming in my ear, but then I saw the plate subduction note and realized you were just pranking us.  Good one. 

[Kinophile]

Oh @GAZ NZ

I needed that.

Subducting plates causing famine... Plates move centimeters per year. The Georgia standing stones? Hilarious. 

Put your tinfoil hat back on, son, the cosmic rays are addling your precious bodily thought processes. 

 

[panzersaurkrautwerfer]

It's all nonsense.  Now fluoridation, THAT is the most monstrous plot ever.  Have you ever seen a commie drink a glass of water?  Pure water?

[Ivanov]

1 hour ago, GAZ NZ said:

Talking to people I know from the UK that are flooding into NZ is not propaganda

Its reality

The Violent Turkish gangs and Eastern Euro gangs now are all in the UK

I was talking about the UK not the EU

You seem to have trouble reading and understanding things correctly

 

UK is still a member of the EU and you were implying, that the Turks were there due to the country's membership in this organization, which is just one of many nonsensical claims you made. There are gangs and mafias present in every European country, yet only the poor Brits are seeking a refuge in the antipodes? Interesting. Many British criminals are operating and hiding in Spain. Should I already apply for an Australian visa?

Edited June 26, 2016 by Ivanov

[Battlefront.com]

21 hours ago, LUCASWILLEN05 said:

Steve I do not misunderstand you.All i am saying is the plan might be considered but it would be a really risky iea. however, THE CAVEAT is that there have been times whensomeone has done the unexpected in military history. In 1940 nobody on the Allied side expEcted the Germans to come through the Ardennes but that is exactly what they did do.

The difference is that Germany was capable of it, Russia is NOT capable of attacking into Poland.  Not unless they have secret alien technology that we're unaware of.

21 hours ago, LUCASWILLEN05 said:

While we agree a Russia advance into Poland is extremely unlikely we should not completely rule out the possibility, however small 

There's a very small chance that I might win the lottery and become a multi-millionaire overnight, but making any plans based on it is stupid.  In fact, I'd say I have more of a chance of winning the lottery than Russia has of invading Poland, and I don't even play the lottery.

21 hours ago, LUCASWILLEN05 said:

Now please read what I ACTUALLY said, not what you THINK i SAID

You have it completely backwards.  I have always understood your point and I have explained why it's not worth talking about or debating.  I have explained why and yet you still persist with pushing for some sort of scenario that is utter nonsense.  I have told you that we will NEVER consider such a scenario for simulation in CM and that's that.  I already locked up one thread where you clearly weren't listening to a word anybody else wrote.  I do not want to repeat that again here. 

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

16 hours ago, GAZ NZ said:

crazy, rambling, hard to follow, conspiracy theory nonsense

Haven't I banned you before for polluting this forum with off topic spew before?  Well, if not I'll certainly do it the next time.

5 hours ago, GAZ NZ said:

I'm not jabbering - I do not see you discrediting my links

That's because anybody who has tried to argue with a conspiracy theory nutter knows it is like pounding ones' genitalia with a large mallet.  Sure, one can do it... but why would one want to?

As for the rest of you, please return to the actual topic or I'll just lock this one up.

Steve

[LUCASWILLEN05]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The difference is that Germany was capable of it, Russia is NOT capable of attacking into Poland.  Not unless they have secret alien technology that we're unaware of.

There's a very small chance that I might win the lottery and become a multi-millionaire overnight, but making any plans based on it is stupid.  In fact, I'd say I have more of a chance of winning the lottery than Russia has of invading Poland, and I don't even play the lottery.

You have it completely backwards.  I have always understood your point and I have explained why it's not worth talking about or debating.  I have explained why and yet you still persist with pushing for some sort of scenario that is utter nonsense.  I have told you that we will NEVER consider such a scenario for simulation in CM and that's that.  I already locked up one thread where you clearly weren't listening to a word anybody else wrote.  I do not want to repeat that again here. 

Steve

Steve my point is that a Russia advance into Poland is probably not a good idea under most circumstances. In a situation where NATO is not fully mobilized and forces are out of position, as might be the case then it might be worth the risk. Remember the problems General Sir Richard Shirreff outlined in his book 2017 War with Russia. There was much debate an argument regarding whether the threat to the Baltic States was a real one or not and that considerably delayed the NATO response. If NATO's mobilization is indeed delayed by the politics that sets up a situation where a further Russian advance into Poland might at least be considered whether or not it is actually implemented. I fully agree that the WISEST thing for the Russians to do is stop on the Polish border. But it is possible  that they do the UNEXPECTED (as the Germans did in 1940 when they attacked through the Ardennes

The point you ignore is that sometimes the enemy does the unexpected. In Operation Desert Storm the Iraqis did not expect the left hook through the desert. The IDF did not expect the Arabs to attack on Yom Kippur during the late afternoon but that is what actually happened, At the start of the Six Day War the Arabs did not expect the massive IAFair strikes that wiped out their air forces to all intents and purposes for the rest of the war.

We don't think the Russians will continue an attack into Poland after invading the Baltic States but they might. If we have ruled the possibility out entirely we will be as psychologically unprepared for that as the Allies were completely unprepared in 1940

The wise man would be saying yes I think this contingency is an unlikely but it should not be completely ruled out. That way, in the event that the situation does develop, however unlikely we thought it was we are mentally prepared to deal with it even if the forces are not all in place to deal with it. Recall that just before the Battle of the Bulge Patton had his staff do a planning exercise assuming his 3rd Army had to do a left turn into the Ardennes, When the Germans did attack in the Ardennes a few days later the staff work had already been done for the movement and 3rd Army staff and senior staff were mntally prepared so, unlike the French in 1940 they did not panic. The right responses were made and the rest is history. The same principle applies to a future war with Russia. Learn from History - those who do not are doomed to repeat it

[LUCASWILLEN05]

Furthermore Putin has made threats to invade Poland, Romania and the Baltic States, Maybe it is bluster and maybe it is not

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11106195/Putin-privately-threatened-to-invade-Poland-Romania-and-the-Baltic-states.html

Just accept that, while the chances of such a scenario are slim indeed, there is a small chance that the contingency might arise where the Russians do indeed push on into Poland after securing te Baltic States. Look at the military and political advantages for Russia in a situation where the implementation of Article 5 has been badly delayed because too many NATO nations refuse to believe the invasion threat is badly delayed Read Shirreff's book with particular attention to the mobilization issues.

Bear in mind that Shirreff is a recently required Deputy SACEUR and is familiar with the political and military problems inherent in NATO mobilization. hopefully there would be time for the Polish army to mobilize and deploy to war positions and for it to be reinforced by some NATO units. If that is achieved then this quick deployment will probably dissuade Putun from a further advance into Poland. Just s the quick response of he US and the rapid deployment of  xviii Airborne Corps and elements of the US marines dissuaded Saddam from implementing ny plan he might have had for invading Saudi Arabia in August/September 1990. I am not saying there was an Iraqi plan to do that, just that a slower US political and military response might well have tempted Saddam had he been minded to risk it At the time there certainly were fears that Iraq might advance into Saudi Arabia. Read for example XVIII airborne Corps in Desert Storm by Charles Lane Toomey and Certain Victory by Brigadier General Robert Scales. There are lessons from Desert Shield tat could apply to a deployment to the Polish border in the event of a Russian invasion of the Baltic States. And before you object with the argument that the terrain is different. Yes it is. But the STRATEGIC and OPERATIONAL similarities are there

[LUCASWILLEN05]

14 hours ago, kinophile said:

Disregard my above,  borked mobile post. 

Re @LUCASWILLEN05 you're correct,  this is veering off. 

I must point out though, again, that your primary examples and rationales for a NATO v RUS war are all grounded in WW2 thinking.  That immediately limits your ideas' credibility when discussing modern day situations and developments. 

For this ill informed footstool general at least... 

Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. My point is that a similar operational situation to 3rd Kharkov or the 1920 Battle of Warsaw might well develop with an invading Russian army becoming badly over extended and being hit with a NATO counter offensive very like (in operational terms) von Manstein's "backhand blow)in 1943 or Pilsudski#s counter offensive in 1920.

Today, with modern technology events would move at even higher speed as we have seen from modern wars like Operation Desert Storm and Operation iraqi Freedom. Russian generals in this situation would have even less time o react than their forbears did in 1943 and 1920. The results would be very similar. Strung out Russian forces would be defeated and destroyed in detail. Which is why I say a Russian attempt to invade Poland would be a gamble. When gamblers lose he loss is often very big indeed. and that is why I said the WISEST Russian course of action would be to choose the safer path and dig in.

I never said that the Russians are likely to invade Poland. What I have been doing is pointing out the risks and consequences to the Russians if they did try it and the gamble failed to pay off. In other words, looking at it from the Russian POV I would consider it too high a risk to attempt under most circumstances but, were I a Russian general planning the invasion of the Baltic States I would prepare a contingency plan to continue the advance into Poland should the Kremlin see an opportunity and decide to exploit it. My plan under most conditions would be to halt on the Polish border and did in along a relatively short 140 mile border much of which is the Kaliningrad Oblast

[Tux]

14 hours ago, GAZ NZ said:

Talking to people I know from the UK that are flooding into NZ is not propaganda

Its reality

The Violent Turkish gangs and Eastern Euro gangs now are all in the UK

I was talking about the UK not the EU

You seem to have trouble reading and understanding things correctly

 

As a UK resident who has lived at various times in London, Liverpool, Peterborough and Doncaster (which basically represent the full range from high immigrant/liberal to low immigrant/conservative population) can I just inform you that this is the biggest pile of c**p I've read in a long time (and that's saying something in today's environment).

Your post is literally the first I've ever heard of "violent Turkish gangs" and there is no more problem with "Eastern Euro gangs" than there is with any of our home-grown British ones.  These subjects are NEVER the topic of day-to-day discussion in the UK outside extremist groups like BNP or EDL.

To lend the slightest modicum of weight to your opinion, how many people from the UK have personally voiced this opinion to you and how many British people "flood" to NZ each year?  How does that compare to the numbers of British people who "flood" to other European countries?  Do the answers to these questions support your opinion?

Sorry if I come across as short-tempered but being told by someone the other side of the world that he spoke to a guy who said we have an immigrant problem is beyond stupid.

Edited for typo.

Edited June 26, 2016 by Tux

[Erwin]

I know this isn't the right place for a discussion about immigrants to the UK.  But, am there (UK) right now, and I can assure you many people I know here are very angry that their legitimate concerns about being overwhelmed by immigrants have been ignored for many years by the "cappuccino swilling, au pair and maid hiring class" as some wag put it.  Hence the vote to "Leave" regardless of other consequences.

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, LUCASWILLEN05 said:

Steve my point is that a Russia advance into Poland is probably not a good idea under most circumstances.

If you persist I'm going to lock up this thread because of you, just like I locked up the previous thread because of you.  This does not make me a happy camper, so proceed with caution.

Your argument is that because Putin might want to do something that he is automatically capable of doing it and therefore this must be taken into consideration.  That's illogical.  For there to be a possibility of doing something the ABILITY has to be there in the first place.  The thing you frustratingly refuse to see is that Russia DOES NOT HAVE THIS ABILITY!!!!!!!!!  Not now, not in 5 years, not in 10 years.  Russia could no sooner invade Poland than Germany could have got to the English Channel in December 1944.  Planning, intent, etc. mean nothing if the resources are not there.

4 hours ago, LUCASWILLEN05 said:

Furthermore Putin has made threats to invade Poland, Romania and the Baltic States, Maybe it is bluster and maybe it is not

My god... OF COURSE it is bluster!  Putin blusters pretty much every time he speaks!  He talked about Novorussia being all of southern and eastern Ukraine, but instead it is a pitiful lump of two poor eastern provinces.  He's talked about BRICS and the Eurasian Trade Union rivaling the IMF and the EU, but those they never had that potential and both are on life support.

Putin is a BS artist extraordinaire.  He says things that he knows there's zero chance of happening.  Cripes, at one point he was even spouting off about returning Alaska to Russia or some other such nonsense.

4 hours ago, LUCASWILLEN05 said:

Just accept that, while the chances of such a scenario are slim indeed, there is a small chance that the contingency might arise where the Russians do indeed push on into Poland after securing te Baltic States.

Sure, there's a situation where Russia could, if it were beyond insane, attack into Polish territory.  Such an attack would barely penetrate into Poland and the result would be a strategic defeat for Russia within a few weeks, possibly days.

 

3 hours ago, LUCASWILLEN05 said:

Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

And those who don't know how to learn from history are doomed to get another thread locked.

Look, if you want to enter into a debate you need to examine the weaknesses of your arguments when they are pointed out to you.  Steadfastly refusing to do so only makes people, me included, wind up lumping you into a similar category as GAZ NZ.  Not that you're insane, but still equally incapable of having a debate with because you have an agenda that you will doggedly defend with your dying breath.  This is not a good thing.

29 minutes ago, Tux said:

As a UK resident who has lived at various times in London, Liverpool, Peterborough and Doncaster (which basically represent the full range from high immigrant/liberal to low immigrant/conservative population) can I just inform you that this is the biggest pile of c**p I've read in a long time (and that's saying something in today's environment).

If you look at some of GAZ NZ's other posts you might find ones that top this one.

29 minutes ago, Tux said:

Sorry if I come across as short-tempered but being told by someone the other side of the world that he spoke to a guy who said we have an immigrant problem is beyond stupid.

Stupidity isn't the issue here.  Has to do with how information is processed.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Clearly this thread is not going to go anywhere positive and I'm not going to waste my Sunday baby sitting it.  Therefore, I'm going to lock it up now before it gets worse.

Congrats to those who have ensured locking this thread is the only logical recourse.

Steve