John Kettler Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 (edited) This is front page, just below the top on Yahoo right now and shows how topical CMBS is. http://news.yahoo.com/u-russia-war-over-ukraine-070000525.html Regards, John Kettler Edited April 17, 2015 by John Kettler 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
womble Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 Doesn't seem very insightful to me. The chance probably doubled or even trebled in the last year. From 0.1% to 0.3%. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 It is fricken Pat Buchanan for crying out loud. Since when did any of his prognostications earn an exclamation point? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antaress73 Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 we're all gonna die ! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASL Veteran Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 It is fricken Pat Buchanan for crying out loud. Since when did any of his prognostications earn an exclamation point? He's still around? Yeah, why would anyone want to dig that fossil up and ask him to comment on anything. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ridethe415 Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 we're all gonna die ! At least that statement has some truth to it... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LukeFF Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 It is fricken Pat Buchanan for crying out loud. Since when did any of his prognostications earn an exclamation point? When it's Kettler linking to the article. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panzersaurkrautwerfer Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 I always worry about being a Pat Buchanan. Not in the political alignment sense nearly as much as continuing to exist and insisting on making noise long after I have passed from relevancy. Think we're pretty past the point of high possibility of war. Russia's hand has gone about as far as it can reasonably go, western interests are not threatened to the degree that more NATO exercises and modest military funding boosts won't smooth over. Something stupid could still happen, but it's not any worse than any given day in 1985 or something. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Kettler Posted April 18, 2015 Author Share Posted April 18, 2015 sburke, Unfortunately, I'm way past the window for removing the exclamation point. I would note, though, Yahoo has a bunch of Ukraine and region stories. 173rd Airborne Brigade in Ukraine training the Ukraine National Guard http://news.yahoo.com/300-us-troops-ukraine-train-ukrainian-forces-us-073153737.html Russia resurgent & Finns worried NATO membership not an option http://news.yahoo.com/resurgent-russia-worries-finns-nato-not-option-161002400.html Moscow says US paratrooper presence in Ukraine could reignite fighting http://news.yahoo.com/us-troops-ukrainian-soil-could-reignite-fighting-moscow-210913750.html That's only a partial list. Regards, John Kettler 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panzersaurkrautwerfer Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 173rd Airborne Brigade in Ukraine training the Ukraine National Guar Members of the 173rd IBCT are there, the Brigade itself is something like 90% elsewhere. Moscow says US paratrooper presence in Ukraine could reignite fighting It's their way of blaming the US for the fighting Russia is largely in control of when it comes to intensity. IF YOU DIDN'T TALK SO MUCH ON THE PHONE I WOULDN'T BEAT OUR KID and somesuch. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Kettler Posted April 18, 2015 Author Share Posted April 18, 2015 panzersaurkrautwerfer, I meant to say something about force size, but got distracted. What I should've said was "elements of the 173rd Airborne Brigade..."I believe the number is 300 or so. More than enough to rile Putin, who seems to believe that no one should do anything to impede his efforts to restore Russian greatness. At the neighbors' expense. Thus, the veiled and naked threats over arming Ukraine, over US forces w/wo NATO operating in the Black Sea and Baltic Sea; then there are Iskander deployments in Crimea and Kaliningrad, nuclear threats to Denmark if Denmark participates in joint NATO naval exercises, not to mention ADIZ intrusions in Scotland, buzzing the USS Donald Cook (again) and nearly ramming an RC-135U operating over international waters over the Baltic. Regards, John Kettler 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panzersaurkrautwerfer Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 Re: Kettler Again though, is this any worse than a mild day in the 1980's? Russia will not collapse into anarchy if Ukraine suddenly retakes Donbass due to elite warrior skills from US paratroopers, the West has had Russian nuclear weapons pointed at it since the first Russian ICBM came online, and has been threatened with same off and on (see the Polish missile shield funtimes for similar threats). We're well short of hamming plowshares into swords. It's a bit nastier than the 1993-2008 years, but it's no worse than 1945-1990 in terms of being "on the edge" 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DreDay Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 (edited) It's a bit nastier than the 1993-2008 years, but it's no worse than 1945-1990 in terms of being "on the edge" That I certainly agree with. The question that many analysts ask though - Is that a good thing that we have regressed to the Cold War era dynamic? I personally find it to be a natural force of change that has occurred not because either side is evil or unjustified; but rather because that is the way that geopolitical dynamics are laid out right now. Do I find it to be a good thing... Hell no! But it is certainly not something that we have not been through before, nor is it the worst thing that could happen either, as you correctly point out. Edited April 18, 2015 by DreDay 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nidan1 Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 As long as our current President is in office we are not going to war with anyone! Well maybe with Ann Coulter...... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wodin Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 Can't see the US stepping in to fight against Russia unless Russia attack\invade US territory, that's the only way I can see it happening. The UK for instance has been severely weakened in Russian eyes with regards to the British public refusing to except even minor casualties and the UK government way to scared to get involved in any conflict unless we were about to be invaded due to Iraq and the lack of WMD's etc. I expect Russia would be allowed to take all her old lands back without the West getting involved..infact I'm sure of it. All it will be is sanctions and harsh words and I reckon Putin knows this. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DreDay Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 Can't see the US stepping in to fight against Russia unless Russia attack\invade US territory, that's the only way I can see it happening. The UK for instance has been severely weakened in Russian eyes with regards to the British public refusing to except even minor casualties and the UK government way to scared to get involved in any conflict unless we were about to be invaded due to Iraq and the lack of WMD's etc. I expect Russia would be allowed to take all her old lands back without the West getting involved..infact I'm sure of it. All it will be is sanctions and harsh words and I reckon Putin knows this. True, but there is a flip side to that coin... Russia would never want to fight US/NATO unless its territory is attacked either. What that means is that there is a competition (that we are currently winning) on who gets their "trip-wire" forces to a disputed area first. Of course there are plenty of other factors and dynamics that go into it as well; but at this point it would be completely counterproductive for Russia (forget Putin for a second) to "get all her old lands back". They simply can not afford it neither economically, nor politically. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeyD Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 (edited) US has increased chance of going to war with Russia in the same way you might have an increased risk of getting into a fistfight with your next door neighbor because he's becoming increasingly erratic from drinking. Its not due to anything we've done. Putin is showing signs of being clinically insane - the Hitler kind of insane. The macho ultra-nationalism, the cult of personality, the messianic expansionist ambitions, the sense of aggrieved national victimhood, the constant hysterical demonization of his perceived 'enemies'. Add to that his willingness to take dangerous risks because he thinks he can get away with it without cost. Its 1932 all over again (including the anschluss of Ukrainian Crimea). Lucky for us Russia has an economy the size of Italy and no allies. The old 'Warsaw pact' had about twice the population base of present day Russia and Russia's former allies are more than likely to join the fight against them than join with them. Even Belarus is arming themselves to defend against Russian aggression! There only so many Cossack organized crime mercenaries that Putin can take on as 'allies'. Expect the Ukraine war to resume in the spring. Putin still wants that direct railway link to Crimea in eastern Ukraine and he has quite a lot of territory he still needs to take for it. That's the real reason for the war. Putin doesn't give two hoots about 'Novo Russia' Edited April 19, 2015 by MikeyD 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vincere Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 Re: Kettler Again though, is this any worse than a mild day in the 1980's? Russia will not collapse into anarchy if Ukraine suddenly retakes Donbass due to elite warrior skills from US paratroopers, the West has had Russian nuclear weapons pointed at it since the first Russian ICBM came online, and has been threatened with same off and on (see the Polish missile shield funtimes for similar threats). We're well short of hamming plowshares into swords. It's a bit nastier than the 1993-2008 years, but it's no worse than 1945-1990 in terms of being "on the edge" I see that point and think it can be viewed that way. But also I think the risk and the hazards can be viewed as higher than for periods of the Cold War. The risk is increased because the old SU was very much a rational actor- somewhat less rational actions are more likely when power is so narrowly held. Plus, their new strategic doctrine seems riddled with risk, and potential miscalculations. The reliance of the internet is increasing the risk and hazard of something full spectrum warfare. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DreDay Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 (edited) US has increased chance of going to war with Russia in the same way you might have an increased risk of getting into a fistfight with your next door neighbor because he's becoming increasingly erratic from drinking. Its not due to anything we've done. Putin is showing signs of being clinically insane - the Hitler kind of insane. The macho ultra-nationalism, the cult of personality, the messianic expansionist ambitions, the sense of aggrieved national victimhood, the constant hysterical demonization of his perceived 'enemies'. Add to that his willingness to take dangerous risks because he thinks he can get away with it without cost. Its 1932 all over again (including the anschluss of Ukrainian Crimea). Lucky for us Russia has an economy the size of Italy and no allies. The old 'Warsaw pact' had about twice the population base of present day Russia and Russia's former allies are more than likely to join the fight against them than join with them. Even Belarus is arming themselves to defend against Russian aggression! There only so many Cossack organized crime mercenaries that Putin can take on as 'allies'. Expect the Ukraine war to resume in the spring. Putin still wants that direct railway link to Crimea in eastern Ukraine and he has quite a lot of territory he still needs to take for it. That's the real reason for the war. Putin doesn't give two hoots about 'Novo Russia' Nicely done good sir! You have managed to summarise every single streotype and "thinking point" that is fed to us about Russia. I am a little dissapointed not to see any mention of Polonium or homophobia; but otherwise - you got it down to the T! Bravo!! Edited April 19, 2015 by DreDay 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kaburke61 Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 (edited) Nice try again Dre... Stereotype? Of course that's it! Not a grain of truth there at all. And WHO gets FED information by WHOs government? Hmmmmmm.... Even my Ukraine-born wife (who only moved over here 10 years ago), sees the difference now that she doesn't live over there, and she's furious with Russia and Putin. She used to be very pro-Putin. Then she was able to read ALL the news, and now thinks very differently (and yes, she has a TON of Ukraine/Russia sites she still reads, so please don't try and tell us it's because all she reads is US propaganda!). Edited April 19, 2015 by kaburke61 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antaress73 Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 (edited) A GDP like Italy ? More like Germany adjusted for purchasing power :http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28PPP%29 Italy is at 2.1 Russia at 3.5 Germany at 3.6 Edited April 19, 2015 by antaress73 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panzersaurkrautwerfer Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 A GDP like Italy ? More like Germany adjusted for purchasing power : You realized you linked us to something about Hong Kong and Macau right? Regardless even if you did post the correct link, Russia's economy is dwarfed several times over by the West. It's just a question if it's super-dwarfed, or mega dwarfed at the end of the day. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antaress73 Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 (edited) No I actually didnt realize because the link was for a GDP list of countries for the last three years. Don't know why. here's the correct link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28PPP%29 Edited April 20, 2015 by antaress73 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antaress73 Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 (edited) and of course it is dwarfed, i'm not debating this. But it's still a big piece to swallow. USA + EUropean Union is 34 together. Anyway, nuclear umbrella and sleep peacefully LOL Edited April 20, 2015 by antaress73 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mastiff Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 Mmmm yahoo news puulesseee They can't even spell check there Plagiarized articles 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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