Bearstronaut

Steve got baited into it this time.  I am waiting for him to yell at everyone first. I don't think they can legally lock up this thread; it has a BFC board seat now.

Again, this isn't high PR, high value (I dispute the notion a Bradley or Abrams or F-16 is high value, we gave a state that is most certainly partially allied to Iran access to all 3) items. This is literally artillery ammunition. And certainly the bleating cries of those urging Ukraine to make "peace" due to Russian "superiority" are ignoring the fact that Ukraine was defending perfectly fine when it had shells to fire. And certainly the fact that the House can pass so urgently a bill to ban Tiktok that he "opposes" and yet not pass another should merely indicate how pathetic a certain party is for not doing the bare minimum it needs to support Ukraine.
There is nothing in this months long hellish situation Ukraine stands in that suggests that the Republican Party or Trump will support Ukraine. Nada.
And am I getting dangerously "domestic"? Yes, it's only fair, I've certainly harped about a certain German. 😉

All america literally needs to do is make shells. Buy shells. Just make some goddamn artillery ammunition. Just buy some shells from a 3rd party, stuff them into a C-5 or a cargo ship and send them to Europe. And yet for months, months we have simply been unable to.
Disgraceful. There is literally no evidence that certain someone who benefits from this situation will should he be elected, not change this stance of non-assistance. This entire fiasco is due to him not pushing for this to be passed in the first place. This isn't a case of stuff that is in short supply, or needs to be hoarded (the money to buy the shells is the money to open more production lines!!!!!!), it is simply for one reason.

I love the smell of space lobsters in the morning...
Smells like Mass Effect

NATO is a defensive alliance. Which is why when the US triggered Article 5 after 911 all of NATO joined while it didnt participate in the 2003 Iraq invasion.

I don’t think anyone of serious power in the West wants a full Russian collapse.  The overall Western grand strategy since the end of the Cold War has been “stable status quo”.  We have spent the last 33 years pretty much working on all fronts to sustain “the system”.  We toss scarfs and hats on it but at its core is a central unchanging stability.  Why?  Because stability is good business.  The West, with the US at the centre built the scheme that “won” the Cold War and want that party to keep going because we get very rich off it.  The rest of the world makes our stuff for cheap, while also buying our other stuff.  
But pretty much from Day 1 “the others” pushed back.  First was the intra-war years, interventions and then terrorism.  Now this has upscaled to “revisionist states” and “power competition”.  Russia invaded Ukraine for several reasons but one of them definitely was to demonstrate that they are not going to be bound by western rules (Hell, Putin said exactly this in that speech back in Sep ‘22).  This puts the West in a dilemma, they can either do too little and Russia threatens the system, or they crush Russia…and it threatens the system.  So they appear to have chosen the middle path, which of course is getting hijacked by the internal movements who want to…wait for it…change the system.  MAGA, alt-right, nationalists, whatever, all disagree with “the system” even though it has made everyone richer.  The reality is that it did not make everyone equally rich so discontent is natural.  Worse, power spheres exploit this so they can get more powerful (and richer).  So Rust-Belt yokels eat this stuff up and start to dismantle “the system”, which includes democracy apparently.  The reality is Trump is a symptom, not a cause and I am not sure even they realize how dangerous this game they are playing is.
So Ukraine happens and becomes a symbol of a “war for, and against, the system.”  It isn’t about the fact that killing innocent Ukrainians is wrong - hell if morales like human life mattered we wouldn’t have Gaza.  No, Ukraine is all about “the system” and both sides appear to be waging it viewed through that lens.  Russia needs to show that they are going to play by their own rules, but not completely break themselves.  One could ask “why is Russia fighting this war by half measures?”  Do they enjoy a quagmire?  No, Putin understands what he has gotten himself into and is adopting a slow burn strategy, hoping we will get distracted and caught up in our own nonsense…and he might be right.
The rest of the West is trying to step up, but frankly we have grown awfully fat, dumb and happy on the back of the US - who now is having a bipolar fit.  In the end, we can live with a fallen Ukraine.  We can shore up the borders and lock Russia out.  We can live with a partial victory in Ukraine, do we really care about Crimea, LNR and DNR?  No, we did not in ‘14 and we don’t now.  We can’t live with a completely imploded Russia.  Those are where the real risks lie.  Too many unknowns that could really break the system.  So we wind up with a half hearted war designed to punish Russia for challenging the system but not destroy them.  Ukraine is, and I am being brutally honest here, is almost secondary to the entire conversation.  It was simply a very unfortunate country where both sides could try and prove a point.  We love Ukraine all of a sudden because they are an opportunity to show that 1) Russia was wrong to challenge the system, and 2) the system still works.  
I strongly suspect this is why this war is also so muddled in military circles.  We are watching a war to defend the system..that is demonstrating the weaknesses of our own military system at the same time.  So we put blinders on and try to pretend it isn’t happening.  Our military power has to still be relevant…otherwise how can we defend the system?
So to answer your question, “yes, the US and the West know exactly how important Ukraine really is and are fighting this war based on that calculus.”  The answer however is “somewhat important”.  We care and feel bad, but care much more about our own issues.  Putin read the short game about as wrong as one can.  He may have read the long game extremely well.  The way to beat the West is not outright confrontation, it is apathy.  2 years is forever for a culture addicted to clicks and flashing lights.  Putin’s off ramp is being able to draw a victory line somewhere of his choosing and he is shooting for that.  And we might just let him get there.
Now I would not start freaking out and worry about a second attack on Kyiv.  Something that dramatic might actually get our attention again.  No, this needs to become a boring war - I am starting to think Putin’s Tucker Carlson interview was smarter than we thought.  What better way to get Western audiences to yawn and start to change the channel than a history lesson?

To many people that matter are convinced that the world can be reset to the day before the Russian full scale invasion. The reluctance to admit that long term trajectories have changed permanently has still not been overcome. Defense spending is going to have to have higher for multiple decades, globalization is going to slowed, and perhaps reversed for decades. The secular cult of share holder value being the ONLY thing that matters is needs to be staked in the heart, permanently. Boeing being exhibit A on that one. Hopefully it won't take Ukraine falling, and Russia invading the Baltics to get the point across. Or maybe Trump wins and civilization takes a multi-century wrong turn into a dystopian nightmare.

But why? Why is the EU and USA doing that? Don't they know how important this conflict is? Do they not want to see Russia collapse (even at the risk it may cause a major power vacuum)? Why did we 'fight' the Cold War? The hard right was all behind defeating the USSR. Now they've flip-flopped. I just don't get it. All we have to do is provide arms to the Ukrainians. That supports our defense industry. No US servicemen (or women) are being asked to risk their lives. This should be a no-brainer. Is it because of the election year?

Going to lay this one at the feet of all those who declared loudly and uncompromisingly that winning this war must mean 100% of pre-2014 Ukraine is re-taken and Russia is effectively crushed - this is where that amateur dangerous narrative gets us.   If we frame victory as a something that large, rife with hazards, then anything less is defeat.  This blatantly violates the principle that all war is negotiation.  It creates a strategic binary box of our own making.
This of course can create either positive or negative effect.  "War is lost, so why keep dumping good money after bad?"  Or, "wow, we had better get our act together!"  I guess we will have to see which one happens.

I'm not saying you're wrong about this and I know everybody is wary of the "Russia sux" excuse but the Russians have never been renowned for naval prowess. The US and Royal Navies have been engaging Houthi drones in the Red Sea for months now and have taken zero hits.

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/nammo-sweden-to-produce-shells-for-ukraine-around-the-clock/

 

I'm not saying you're wrong about this and I know everybody is wary of the "Russia sux" excuse but the Russians have never been renowned for naval prowess. The US and Royal Navies have been engaging Houthi drones in the Red Sea for months now and have taken zero hits.

Don't judge the Western Navies based on Russian Navy incompetence.
Let's look at Russian ship Caesar Kunikov

What protection does it have against small boats? Two twin 57 mm (2.2 in) DP guns

It is old Soviet tech, and most likely it does not work properly. If it works at all.
What else does it have? Well, guys like this.

This is absurd. It's no surprise that his tin can is now submersible (or at least what remains of it).
Now, let's look at Type 45 Destroyer because it is the main escort of the White Elefants.

What does this fellow have?
Two DS30B rapid fire cannon

Two Phalanx CIWS

By the way, here Phalanx fires at surface target
Two .50 Cals

It is already impressive but here is more. 
T45 usually have at least one helicopter

The name of the helicopter is Wildcat, and it can carry up to 21 LMM missiles. 

When this boi gets into the air, the swarm attack stops.
Is that all? Nope - as soon as vodka hits the fan 30mm will get their own LMMs

This is how LMM works (different mount)
The swarm of small boats is not a new threat. Western Navies have been preparing to counter it for a long time. But RU Navy haven't since difficulties of dumb Western Navies do not apply to superior Russian Navy and do not impede my thieving activity. Now RU chickens come home to roost.
Do not be dumb and do not be corrupt is the main lesson we can get from RU Navy drone debacle. 

I'm not saying you're wrong about this and I know everybody is wary of the "Russia sux" excuse but the Russians have never been renowned for naval prowess. The US and Royal Navies have been engaging Houthi drones in the Red Sea for months now and have taken zero hits.

They just got done swatting down a border bill that had everything they were asking for, because Trump needs that issue to run on to scare older white folks who live nowhere near a good Mexican restaurant. He has no other issue to really campaign for. 
The US mis leadership class, if willing to just allow a two bit conman to become dictator, proves that this system and those that defend it deserve every heap of scorn that radicals put on them.  
I'm not going to accept American Putinism, even if they win the election. I will not comply and I hope most of the civil service and military defies him and his thugs, openly and directly.
 
 

What will have changed is that trump will have learned that he can act with impunity and no one will stop him.  Jeebus F-in' Kristo, he actually led a coup against the elected gov't and nothing has been done about it as people quibble and wet their pants over legalisms that trump shredded already.  It's insane. 
The supreme court has no executive authority, how would they make trump comply with anything?  Congress, if there's enough snakes to not impeach (probably will be), then what are they gonna do?  Call out the army on the white house? -- the army doesn't answer to congress.
Seriously, if 2nd term trump in unimpeachable, then he can do anything he wants that is within his power.  And within his power he has the military, homeland security, the justice dept, and many other agencies that answer directly to him.  Our country is very much ruled by norms as much as laws and Trump will know neither apply to him.
Trump is actively, both in legal filings and in speeches, making the case that the president can do anything he wants, commit any crime, and without that power then it destroys the presidency.  It's bat**** but that is what he is currently arguing.  An appeals court just shot that ludicrous position down, thoroughly and sternly, but it's headed for the supreme court, who hopefully will simply refuse to hear it, letting the appeals court ruling stand.  Seriously, why does any think that someone who holds the position that they are above the law worry about the law?
Just like why do his supporters think it's impossible that he sexually assaulted a woman even though he was recorded bragging about grabbing women by the p--y and how because he's a tv star no one could do anything about it.  He literally bragged about sexually assualting women, yet someone his cult can't believe he'd actually assault a woman.  
Jesus, just take the f--er at his word and you can see how dangerous he is.

That is a very good analogy.  McClellan was a brilliant force generation general.  He built a modern army out of a tiny start up.  That was an enormous task with many critical systems essentially beginning from nothing - logistics, C4ISR, training and doctrine.  He was in fact exactly what the Union needed at the beginning of the war.  But when it came time to fight, he was sub par and dangerous.  The political level had to replace him and find the right general for the right time: Grant.
Grant would have been a disaster in the first half of the war.  He would have fought like Lee and likely broken the north.  Lee was arguably the wrong general for the South too.  Aggressive to a fault. Slavish adherence to the offensive.  He took an incredibly motivated military and basically broke it without achieving victory.  Now a strong argument can be made that he knew he was up against the clock and was essentially trying to destroy the Union before they inevitably grew too strong but there are holes in this.  However, the Confederacy never solved for stuff like logistics or C4ISR over the same period - that is a major strategic shortfall.
Regardless, generals are very often terrible in a moment other than their own.  Most of the wartime generals of WW2 would have been horrible in small dirty wars.  Good generals in low intensity or peacetime often fail in wartime.  The trick is to put the right general in the chair at the right time. I do not know what the dynamic is with the UA but clearly the politically level has decided they need someone else for what comes next…we will have to see if they are right.

Sometimes a change at the top is needed. Mark Clark removed John Lucas from VI Corps command at Anzio even though Lucas arguably saved the beachhead from destruction by not overreaching with his relatively meager forces. However, it took Lucien Truscott to actually effect the breakout. 
Now, I'm not saying that this new guy is suddenly gonna have the keys to success but sometimes a new perspective is needed. 

Sometimes a change at the top is needed. Mark Clark removed John Lucas from VI Corps command at Anzio even though Lucas arguably saved the beachhead from destruction by not overreaching with his relatively meager forces. However, it took Lucien Truscott to actually effect the breakout. 
Now, I'm not saying that this new guy is suddenly gonna have the keys to success but sometimes a new perspective is needed. 

Tonight, I have finished the complete (as it is now called) CampaignPack „Summer of Destruction“.
During the next hours, I will complete the short intro file and then start to send the content to all the guys who have ordered it. Within the next 2-3 days, everybody should get it 👍🏻
 
There is a small limitation:
The announced 20 master maps are not included yet. I simply don‘t have the patience to wait any longer with the release. I will send these maps with a second mail within the next 2-4 weeks.
Regards 
Mr.X

Can we call the GOP "baloney-eating surrender monkeys" now?

One more caveat: 
A big difference in American politics now from even 7 years ago is that there is a lot of actual intimidation going on on the Republican side. GOP pols get swatted (i.e. have bogus hostage/shooting calls made to police with their address), their kids get targeted online, they deal with waves of threatening emails, calls and texts if they publicly break with Trump. Nikki Haley was swatted in December at her home and just applied for Secret Service protection because of the unrelenting and violent comms she gets. When 20 GOP Senators who would have killed for this border bill in 2015 run cowering from it, it's not because they suddenly had a change of heart. They were scared off it for both political and personal reasons. 
One of America's parties has entered a very dark phase and it's not going to get better unless they lose and keep losing.

Last year I played a few of the Italian scenarios PBEM with my army buddy and I won every single time thanks to those beautiful little mortars.

I played Lemon Hill, PBEM, me as the Americans and completely fell victim to thinking this would be a piece of cake, I mean, it's the Americans against the Italians right?  Those mortars devastated me.  It was eye opening.
 

Isn't it great that we live in a time where third-person plural possessive can spark social controversy?