Machor

I don't think this has been posted, or at least I didn't see it. Looks like more reinforcements on the way. The question is what good is it if Turkey won't let them into the Black Sea? Perhaps an airlift from Syria?

 
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/russian-tank-landing-ships-spotted-near-japan-may-be-heading-to-ukraine

This is an interesting, and potentially escalatory situation (I am unfortunately out of likes today). Turkey's enforcement of keeping the straits closed would be an unprecedented event: They have only been closed in the past during WW2, but then the German and Italian navies never attempted to enter the Black Sea through the straits.
As the ships appear to be carrying vehicles, an airlift from Syria makes little sense: The same airlift would have been possible from Vladivostok, and much more sensible to send them by rail. I am thinking about two scenarios:
1- The vehicles are reloaded onto civilian ships in Syria. It is not clear to me if Turkey would then still be able to block passage through the straits.
2- This could give Russia its infamous 'escalate to deescalate' card. The ships could steam towards the Dardanelles, with Russia stating that Turkey has to let them through since there has been no declaration of war, that hitting the ships is a casus belli, and that Russia would have the right to retaliate with tactical nukes. This could then force NATO to the negotiating table to pressure Ukraine to cede territories, or at least agree to a ceasefire leading to a frozen war.

If that's the case they can just say, "Ok, done"  🙂
 
Dave

Great news! The bomb shelter under Drama Theater in Mariupol survived the hit of 500 kg bomb. Now the rubbles removing have started to reach the entrance of shelter. There is still unknow about possible casualties among people which were inside the buiding and out of shelter. 

Yes, this is standard Russian practice, already seen in Syria.  Basically pre-planned flying MLRS.  Fly to planned IP fast and low over area controlled by friendlies, at IP pull up to X degrees on Y bearing, fire rockets then dump flares while dive turning back low, still over ground controlled by friendlies.  Rockets land in general area of target coordinates.

When this is all over, someone will need to make this into a scenario - would be interesting to try to 'win' as the Russians. I will quote only the parts relevant for wargaming, but highly recommend reading the whole article (the looting is especially damning):
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-russia-voznesensk-town-battle-11647444734?st=z24ubrmo2xi9bq1&reflink=share_mobilewebshare
"A Ukrainian Town Deals Russia One of the War's Most Decisive Routs"
"the two-day battle of Voznesensk, details of which are only now emerging, turned decisively against the Russians. Judging from the destroyed and abandoned armor, Ukrainian forces, which comprised local volunteers and the professional military, eliminated most of a Russian battalion tactical group on March 2 and 3."
"“We didn’t have a single tank against them, just rocket-propelled grenades, Javelin missiles and the help of artillery,” said Vadym Dombrovsky, commander of the Ukrainian special-forces reconnaissance group in the area and a Voznesensk resident."
"Helicopters dropped Russian air-assault troops in a forested ridge southwest of Voznesensk, as an armored column drove from the southeast. Mr. Velichko said a local collaborator with the Russians, a woman driving a Hyundai SUV, showed the Russian column a way through back roads.
Ukrainian officers estimate that some 400 Russian troops took part in the attack. The number would have been bigger if these forces—mostly from the 126th naval infantry brigade based in Perevalnoye, Crimea, according to seized documents—hadn’t come under heavy shelling along the way."
"Downhill from Rakove, Russian forces set up base at a gas station at Voznesensk’s entrance. A Russian BTR infantry fighting vehicle drove up to the blown-up bridge over the Mertvovod, opening fire on the Territorial Defense base to the left. Five tanks, supported by a BTR, drove to a wheat field overlooking Voznesensk.
A group of Territorial Defense volunteers armed with Kalashnikovs was hiding in a building at that field’s edge. They didn’t have much of a chance against the BTR’s large-caliber machine gun, said Mykola Rudenko, one of the city’s Territorial Defense officers; some were killed, others escaped. Russian troops in two Ural trucks were preparing to assemble and set up 120mm mortars on the wheat field, but they got only as far as unloading the ammunition before Ukrainian shelling began."
"Ukrainian shelling blew craters in the field, and some Russian vehicles sustained direct hits. Other Ukrainian regular troops and Territorial Defense forces moved toward Russian positions on foot, hitting vehicles with U.S.-supplied Javelin missiles. As Russian armor caught fire—including three of the five tanks in the wheat field—soldiers abandoned functioning vehicles and escaped on foot or sped off in the BTRs that still had fuel. They left crates of ammunition."
 

Not sure I agree with this:
- First, the average citizen is not seeing what we are, a total shambles of a Russian military operation that will ring out across the ages.  They see that Russia attacked it neighbor, blew up a lot of buildings that look like where they live and killed a lot of people that look like them.  The public have short attention spans but once something gets stuck in the collective brain-pan it is very hard to get out.  We are already seeing shifts in public opinion and that drives politicians.
- Second, it is not in any NATO nations military interest.  We need a bad guy, a boogie man in order to create political will to arm us.  We are going to play up the Russians as dangerous and a proven threat that we need to really worry about.  Assessments will get slowly ratcheted up from the obvious sh*tshow we see today, towards "the Russians have learned and teamed up with the Chinese!"  It is no secret that larger deployments to Eastern Europe a la Cold War are on the table.
- Third, no matter how badly the Russians did here...and it is bad...collective non-military deterrence failed.  We threatened sanctions, mean looks and strong language, Russia said "screw it" and went anyway.  That means hard power is back on the table one way or the other.  We have entered into a season of Mars (something most of the MENA already knew) and that is going to change the calculus (already has).  We are already getting sweaty questions on the Arctic and NORAD.
- Fourth, crazy bastards still got the bomb.  No matter how ridiculous Russian performance has been, they are sitting on enough nuclear boom-boom to re-set civilization, so we are likely going to see BMD and its like go nuts.
The only thing that makes this all go away is a total regime change in Russia that puts a moderate centrist in power, all the while embracing open liberal democracy...like by Saturday.  I think the Russian have a better chance of a Ukrainian surrender than that happening, so here we are in crazy town.    

Unsuppressed S-300 forces all tactical aviation down into MANPADS envelope.

I'm actually Chinese, and my observation of Chinese netizens' reaction is actually very much the opposite.  The great majority of ordinary Chinese citizens seem to buy into Russia's propaganda (b/c that's what they are fed on Chinese media) and many are very pro-Putin.  They lay the blame at Ukraine and the West's doorstep, and feel that Russia is helping China by checking the West's expansionism and disrupting their containment of China's own rise.  The strong nationalist sentiment that Xi Jinping has been cultivating through propaganda and autocratic leadership is very worrying...

I don't see how this is going to work. While it looks like you are right and many Russians do want to have a "strong man" at the top who somehow restores Russia to its former glory, how can you force them to change their mind? There is no historical evidence that punishing a people for their government ever worked (correct me if I missed something). There are a bunch of countries which had sanctions imposed on them for decades like Cuba, Iran, North Korea. Did they overthrow their government? No, on the contrary isolation help the respective regime to tighten its grip.
As a German I'd say let's look at what we can learn from history: As Steve pointed out, after WW1, Germany was isolated and severly punished. What good did it do? It only served to give the Germans a deep feeling of humiliation combined with growing resentment towards democracy. The latter because a) they actually stuck to the Versaille Treaty and paid the reparations and b) since democracy really has to be learned, the democratic parties grew quite detached from the people and often only served their own needs. Added to all that came worldwide economic crisis of 1929 which struck (as far as memory serves) Germany the hardest in all of europe. Enter Hitler, the "strong man" who gave the people a feeling of "being someone again", improved the economic situation (doesn't matter that hald of it was based on plans of the previous government and the other half was indebting the country like there's no tomorrow, what counts is perception). By contrast, after WW2, the (western) Allies helped Germany and after a relatively short time Western Germany was welcomed back to international community (again, doesn't matter that this in large parts wasn't kindness but needing the Germans agains the Soviet Union and the Marshall Plan helped the US at least as much as it helped Germany, again, what counts is perception).
So, now there is Russia. After the fall of communism what happend? In Russian perception democracy just meant a weak and always drunk Boris Jelzin who stood by and watched while corrupt oligarchs together with "Western" capitalist companies plundered Russia. This in combination with seeing how the once mighty Soviet Union was now, as Russia, only called a "regional power" by western politicians that could do nothing to prevent the former enemy (USA = NATO = EU (perception...)) from encroaching on their borders. Enter Putin. And I fail to see how this would change with further isolating Russia after a hypothetical regime change.
That said, I'm no Russia-Apologist, it doesn't justify attacking another country. Still it would be a grave mistake not to see that pattern and to draw the necessary conclusions from it.

Ukrainian pilots losses, knowingly for now
- Dmytro Kolomiyets, mayor, 39th Tactical aviation brigade (Ozerne airfield, Su-27). Duty unknown. Got lost 24th February probably over Ozerne airfield, covering the withdrawal of other planes on reserve airfield. Shot down in air combat.
- Lieutenant colonel Eduard Vagarovskyi, 39th Tactical aviation brigade (Ozerne airfield, Su-27). Duty unknown. Got lost in the night from 24th to 25th of March in dogfight with Russian jets.
-  Olexandr Oksanchenko, colonel, 831st Tactical aviation brigade (Myrhorod airfield, Su-27). Officially got lost in the night from 25th to 26th of March in dogfight with Russian jets over Kyiv, unofficilly mistakingly shot down by friendly fire of our S-300. Huge lost for our aviation. He was the best pilot-instuctor with great experience
- Hennadiy Matuliak, lieutenant colonel 299th Tactical aviation brigade (Kulbakine airfield, Su-25/L-39). Duty unknown. Got lost between 24-26th Feb, shot down during airstrike of enemy troops in Hostomel area.
- Stepan Chobanu, mayor, 831st Tactical aviation regiment (Myrhorod airfield, Su-27). Got lost on 28th February in air combat over Kropyvnytskyi airfield  
- Lieutenent colonel Oleksandr Maryniak, 16th Army aviation brigade (Mi-24/Mi-8, Brody airfield). Duty unknown. He have retired from service year ago, but returned to service after the war began. Got lost on 8th of March during helicopter attack on enemy column in Baryshivka area (east from Kyiv) - his Mi-24 was shot down. Together with him got lost captain Ivan Bezzub
- Yevhen Lysenko, mayor, squadron leader of 114th tactical aviation brigade (MiG-29, Lutsk airbase. Previuos location - Belbek airfield, Crimea). Got lost approx 10-11th of March in air combat with two Russian fighters in Zhytomyr area. Reportedly shot down Russian jet (not confirmed), but was hit by Russian SAM sytem (probably S-400 from Belarus territory).

This always was his weak point and Putin knows where to beat
This is of course was made for this. Russian jet drop heavy bomb on the building of Dramatical Theater in Mariupol, where was a shelter for citizens. Hundrerds citizens with children hide there... The building ruined completely. There is unknown about casualties. Nobody can reach this place because of heavy shelling. Officially in Mariupol already lost more 1800 citizens, but real number of victims can be more 10000...
 

A friend escaped Mariupol yesterday and sent the following photos:

Russian 'success' videos, as requested. Large quantity of destroyed Ukrainian armour in Kherson:
Russian troops show off NATO aid trophies:
 

Russian 'success' videos, as requested. Large quantity of destroyed Ukrainian armour in Kherson:
Russian troops show off NATO aid trophies:
 

As a former US Army SIGINTer this news got me salivating.

Article on Russian comms in Ukraine. Summary:
"it seems that the modernisation of Russia's radios may not have gone to plan. Deliveries of things like the R-168 and R-187 digital radios were supposed to have started in 2000 and 2017 respectively. However, there may have been issues with quality and corruption."
"This means some Russian troops have been using civil walkie-talkies, their phones, and unencrypted HF radios, which can be listened into by almost anyone with the right kit and skills."
"This raises three possibilities. The first is that Russian military HF users may not care if eavesdropping takes place. The second possibility is that HF may be used to deliberately transmit false information...and third that the RuAF cannot encrypt HF traffic."
"These issues may present vulnerabilities that the Ukrainians could exploit fairly easily to gain electromagnetic dominance."
 

panzermartin,

Let me answer your Su-25 RTB question in a particularly unforgettable way. In the Georgia WAr, an Su-25 took a direct engine hit by a Buk and made it back to the base. The hit obliterated the engine, but an armored firewall between the two engines kept the disntegrating engine from destroying its neighbor. Compared to a Buk direct hit, a MANPADS to an engine, barring, say, a catastrophic fire or such, is exactly why the plane, a shameless lift of the Northrop Grumman YAX-9, was able to survive the hit and RTB. It's also why the plane, like the one that became the A-10, had two engines and fully redundant flight controls.

Regards,

John Kettler

There is so many Canadian volunteers over there, they have their own brigade.  Reportedly in the Kyiv area.  Here is their arm patch.  Five Hundred and Fifty in number so far and growing daily.

Four or even five Russian tanks bogged dead and abandoned

This piece on the Beeb is a bit worrying...
So, they're burning bridges, just to spite the West, because they won't be able to keep these planes flying, even if they take over all certification functions, no matter how permissive their regulatory environment, planes are going to start falling out of the sky, and then there won't be any need for aviation, because they won't be able to sell tickets. And they'll have to pay the lessors billions, as well as pay punitive insurance premiums if they ever do rejoin the "community of international aviation".
If Russia is acting as if there is no future, that doesn't bode well for the rest of us.

Anyone still think convoy road marches in CM are unrealistic? I know I have seen that start stop tank dance more than once in my games.

Some folks figured out that you can get a reasonably good idea of military activity in Ukraine using NASA's Fire Information for Resource Management System
On the thread a link is provided to the NASA web app, so you guys can take a look too.
 

So we are probably overdue on a discussion on what is going on at the tactical level.  I have held off trying to do an analysis because things were simply too turbulent to draw any real conclusions, still are in fact.  However, I  will offer a hypothesis of what I think is occurring and we can try and go from there.
In the west we have been watching these "Russian wars" with a lot of interest over the last 8 years. The reason for this is that we are all very paranoid of becoming a 21st century version of the WW1 generals - discovering on the battlefield that our doctrine has become completely obsolete.  In WWI at the tactical level it was machine guns and fast firing artillery at long ranges, at the operational and strategic it was railways, telegraph wires and canned food preservation.  They all added up to totally different war than anyone was expecting that included the end of some pretty major stuff like cavalry.
So in this war we have all been watching and scratching our heads as to "what just happened?"  At the tactical level back in 2014, and was confirmed in the short Azer-Armenian war, that something had changed.  The Russians had linked UAVs and massed fires at the tactical level, the Azerbaijanians mimicked this in 2020, and the effect was to be able to crush massed enemy armor formations over the horizon and then move in mechanized forces for what was essentially a "sweep up" close battle.  Everyone was expecting the same for this war.
The Ukrainians, being at the receiving end in 2014 have likely figured out that playing by the old rulebook will not work.  So my hypothesis is 1) the Russians have been trying to follow their doctrine of long range Find, Mass Fires Fix/Attrit and Heavy Close clean up to Finish, but 2) The Ukrainians have adopted tactics that negate #1.
The evidence for #1 is the fact that the Russians have appeared to stick with the BTG which is a concept with massed fires at the tactical level baked-in:
  
(https://www.globalsecurity.org/jhtml/jframe.html#https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/images/btg-image01.jpg|||Battalion Tactical Group)
In western doctrine a BG will have integral mortars and likely a Arty Bn in close support.  The Russians added 6 x MLRS to this mix and if you look at Soviet doctrine, MLRS are normally at Regimental/Div level.  This matched what we saw in the field in 2014 and 2020 very closely.
The evidence for #2 is all over social media.  The Ukrainians, learning quickly from 2014, look like they have dis-aggregated. More importantly and to the point, they have largely abandoned defensive mass but have not lost lethality.  I think the Ukrainians are still forming mass for offensive actions but the defensive is a lot of small units dispersed all over the place with weapon systems that are light, portable and have really extended range and reach; they have become the swarm the Russians are trying to hit with a shotgun.  Further, by dis-aggregating the Ukrainians look like they have turned some ideas about maneuver on its head.  Rear areas are not not "rear" anymore, it is all FEBA because small units with next gen ATGMs are cutting Russian logistics to pieces, making all the Russian mass heavily dislocated (or perhaps contributing to Russian mess ups).
We spend a lot of time slagging Russian failures, and there are quite a few and well earned, but we should also keep an eye on Ukrainian victories, because they might very well be happening on their own merits and not all on Russian screw ups.  For example, we may be seeing a lot of abandoned Russian MBTs because there are no refueling or recovery assets left due to Ukrainians adopting a new path very effectively.
So what?  Well the question is, "are we seeing an anomaly or trend?"  As we look over at our own heavy steel, we have to ask ourselves "what if our next opponent looks and fights like the Ukrainians and not the Russians?"   The answer to that question may be a blip in military force development but is also may be a signpost much in the same way 1914 was because the technology that enables the Ukrainian tactics is accelerating - smart, very long range autonomous systems that can overwhelm current mechanized protection/shield at a system level.  
Personally, I think it is too soon to call it.  There may be times ahead where mass demonstrates it merits and they may be decisive; however, it is all worth watching closely because none of us want to the a "horse cavalry commander" in the next war. 

Well, the catch is you winch your truck out of mud in Spintires / Mudrunner (which is obviously way more comfortable on your PC than irl), or get another truck to tow you out. As discussed by a US veteran in the thread below, the Russian military is simply abandoning vehicles in running condition once they get stuck, which is something they deal with all the time even in peacetime:
This thread also made me appreciate the importance of recovery AFVs, which get overlooked when playing with the 'glory boys' in CM.