The_MonkeyKing

New toy it seems to be. Here:
 
 

"Zaporizhzhia counter-offensive equipment loss numbers as of 19 June 2023."


source:https://twitter.com/naalsio26/status/1670944547373711361?s=20

"Zaporizhzhia counter-offensive equipment loss numbers as of 19 June 2023."


source:https://twitter.com/naalsio26/status/1670944547373711361?s=20

"Zaporizhzhia counter-offensive equipment loss numbers as of 19 June 2023."


source:https://twitter.com/naalsio26/status/1670944547373711361?s=20

"Zaporizhzhia counter-offensive equipment loss numbers as of 19 June 2023."


source:https://twitter.com/naalsio26/status/1670944547373711361?s=20

Zero evidence of even one KA-52 going down during these recent southern operations.

or just regular blurred missile

or just regular blurred missile

For 4-5 days. Today at 19:00 General Staff again claimed Ka-52 was shot down. The fifth. But still no evidences. Russian TGs like FighterBomber and other tied with helicopters also keep silence

News on the possible Merkava deal
 
 

Zero evidence of even one KA-52 going down during these recent southern operations.

I would guess it is not worth it to hit those helicopters with the current munitions available. 
Those helicopter bases must be anti-air hardpoints and the helos are dispersed(in the satellites) 100m apart so it would be 1 storm shadow = one destroyed helo + what it takes to penetrate AA.
The target lists must have lots of higher priority targets for these low-availability high-demand deep strike assets.
Now GLSDB that would be nice. But still, the copter will just move 50km further back when these arrive to the theater. 

I would guess it is not worth it to hit those helicopters with the current munitions available. 
Those helicopter bases must be anti-air hardpoints and the helos are dispersed(in the satellites) 100m apart so it would be 1 storm shadow = one destroyed helo + what it takes to penetrate AA.
The target lists must have lots of higher priority targets for these low-availability high-demand deep strike assets.
Now GLSDB that would be nice. But still, the copter will just move 50km further back when these arrive to the theater. 

On this episode of the Russia Contingency, Mike is joined by Rob Lee, a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute's Eurasia program, and Franz Stefan-Gady, founder and chief executive officer of Gady Consulting.
https://warontherocks.com/episode/therussiacontingency/28970/ukraines-offensive-first-impressions/
my summary notes:
Careful optimism but lots of unknowns Ukrainians seem to be managing well with green formations in an environment where even Western professionals would likely struggle progress within the realm of expectations nobody in the analyst community was expecting this to look like Harkiv The question is not "have the Ukrainians reached a certain point" but where they were planning to be at this point in time Mike guesses it is unlikely Ukrainians are where they hoped to be at this point but also that actually doesn't tell us much. how are the relative attrition and commitment of forces? How much Ukraine has ammo available and for how long time? Ukraine could choose to reinforce one of the current attacks or open a new one western axis is having difficulties but the eastern axis is advancing well and on a wide front the main effort is still to show itself. "we know it when we see it" Ukraine seems to be trying to get Russia to commit reserves This is still unclear We are in the attritional phase of this operation Transition to maneuver phase is often sudden Ukraine approaching the Russian mainline expectedly everything takes time when advancing on fortified positions.  Russia likely aiming to make this approach attritional as possible but not to stop Ukrainians Russia likely trying to make the attack culminate at the mainline or shortly after it Early Russian hard counterattacks are surprisingly hard (and unsuccessful) Experienced Ukrainian units are making gains at this moment. New formations are still mostly not committed Ukraine is also mixing the new formations with its more experienced forces Ukrainian Positive indicators Ukraine seems to be capable of hitting the depth of the Russian rear effectively can they isolate the battlefield? Ukraine seems to be winning the counter-battery war Ukraine seems to be learning and adapting already Night fighting capacity paying off Ukrainian Challenges Some Russian units fight stubbornly even when these same formations have disintegrated in the past 42nd mot.rifle div. and the two Spetsnaz brigades seem to have held on the western axis Doing combined arms breaches without air superiority and NATO level of enablers and without total fires dominance. Russian rotatory aviation  Mines A possible shortage of short-range air defense on the Ukraine side although rotatory aviation operations would be expected in any case

So this is Moscow stating it is ok for Ukrainian planes to operate out of NATO airfields?
Even Moscow is trying to get the West to realize it has absolute escalation dominance 

Unfortunately, since “most” U.S. school systems no longer have the Civics classes that were required during my education in the 1950s and 1960s, most people don’t realize that an H. Res or an S. Res mean absolutely nothing. A Resolution (Res) is nothing more than that body, House or Senate expressing an “opinion.” E.g. “We hereby resolve that the sun AND the moon rise in the east!”
Only an HR or SR have the capability to become a “Bill,” that when signed by the President becomes an ”Act,” which is a “Law.”

Never happened. Only the House passed it, or tried to. Never came up in the Senate. So, no money, and no further action on it.

So this is Moscow stating it is ok for Ukrainian planes to operate out of NATO airfields?
Even Moscow is trying to get the West to realize it has absolute escalation dominance 

On this episode of the Russia Contingency, Mike is joined by Rob Lee, a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute's Eurasia program, and Franz Stefan-Gady, founder and chief executive officer of Gady Consulting.
https://warontherocks.com/episode/therussiacontingency/28970/ukraines-offensive-first-impressions/
my summary notes:
Careful optimism but lots of unknowns Ukrainians seem to be managing well with green formations in an environment where even Western professionals would likely struggle progress within the realm of expectations nobody in the analyst community was expecting this to look like Harkiv The question is not "have the Ukrainians reached a certain point" but where they were planning to be at this point in time Mike guesses it is unlikely Ukrainians are where they hoped to be at this point but also that actually doesn't tell us much. how are the relative attrition and commitment of forces? How much Ukraine has ammo available and for how long time? Ukraine could choose to reinforce one of the current attacks or open a new one western axis is having difficulties but the eastern axis is advancing well and on a wide front the main effort is still to show itself. "we know it when we see it" Ukraine seems to be trying to get Russia to commit reserves This is still unclear We are in the attritional phase of this operation Transition to maneuver phase is often sudden Ukraine approaching the Russian mainline expectedly everything takes time when advancing on fortified positions.  Russia likely aiming to make this approach attritional as possible but not to stop Ukrainians Russia likely trying to make the attack culminate at the mainline or shortly after it Early Russian hard counterattacks are surprisingly hard (and unsuccessful) Experienced Ukrainian units are making gains at this moment. New formations are still mostly not committed Ukraine is also mixing the new formations with its more experienced forces Ukrainian Positive indicators Ukraine seems to be capable of hitting the depth of the Russian rear effectively can they isolate the battlefield? Ukraine seems to be winning the counter-battery war Ukraine seems to be learning and adapting already Night fighting capacity paying off Ukrainian Challenges Some Russian units fight stubbornly even when these same formations have disintegrated in the past 42nd mot.rifle div. and the two Spetsnaz brigades seem to have held on the western axis Doing combined arms breaches without air superiority and NATO level of enablers and without total fires dominance. Russian rotatory aviation  Mines A possible shortage of short-range air defense on the Ukraine side although rotatory aviation operations would be expected in any case

more gems:
 

So this is Moscow stating it is ok for Ukrainian planes to operate out of NATO airfields?
Even Moscow is trying to get the West to realize it has absolute escalation dominance 

more gems:
 

Bleep me, they just INVITED NATO's air force to join the war. How can such an invitation be refused? Three thousand sorties days will wrap thus thing up by the fourth of July

Sounds like it.
Moscow has backed down on every single "red line" that it has drawn when NATO has pushed the issue.  The only strategy they have left that is even slightly plausible is to de-escalate, drag things out for as long as possible, and hope that NATO countries get tired of supporting Ukraine (obviously coupled with stirring up the western tankie contingent to go on about Russia being willing to talk about peace,  and Ukraine being belligerent).

So this is Moscow stating it is ok for Ukrainian planes to operate out of NATO airfields?
Even Moscow is trying to get the West to realize it has absolute escalation dominance