db_zero

The largest ruble bill you can buy is 5000.
I collect fiat bills and may try to get one just for fun if banks will sell them.

I hope that the current western resupply effort included chemical weapons defense equipment and training provided.
There is a general consensus that Russian troops don’t have the training , expertise or will to engage in close urban combat. Shelling probably isn’t enough to dislodge a determined resistance and history has shown blasting built up areas creates more problems for attackers.
Some have said the Russians are recruiting Syrians because they have experience in urban warfare. These same troops may also have experience in dealing with fighting in a chemical environment too.
When Russia was warned that chemical weapons was a red line that was not to be crossed in Syria, nothing happened and who was VP then?
Syria was not the first time Russia used chemical agents. A while back they had a hostage incident and used a sleeping agent to incapacitate before going in…
Chemical or a sleeping agent would seep down low into basements and buildings.
At this point nothing should be ruled out. 
 
What about irritants commonly used in the West like tear gas, CS or pepper spray based irritants. If you’re not prepared to deal with that it can be a big disadvantage.
 
How is the west prepared for a use of chemical sleeping agent or widespread use of non lethal agents to tip the battlefield by Russia?
 
What sort of response would take place? Especially in light of Putins nuclear threat?

It also resembles the psychological advantage the Germans had over Allied armour in WW2. The rumours of the top-down attack of the Javelin might explain why so many Russian tanks are seemingly abandoned by their crews. There are several videos of a couple of knocked-out tanks together with other undamaged but abandoned tanks. Along with potentially running of of fuel of course.

Let’s hope it stays that way, but it’s still a good idea to be prepared and get measures in place before you actually need it and are forced to do things at the spur of the moment.

I hope that the current western resupply effort included chemical weapons defense equipment and training provided.
There is a general consensus that Russian troops don’t have the training , expertise or will to engage in close urban combat. Shelling probably isn’t enough to dislodge a determined resistance and history has shown blasting built up areas creates more problems for attackers.
Some have said the Russians are recruiting Syrians because they have experience in urban warfare. These same troops may also have experience in dealing with fighting in a chemical environment too.
When Russia was warned that chemical weapons was a red line that was not to be crossed in Syria, nothing happened and who was VP then?
Syria was not the first time Russia used chemical agents. A while back they had a hostage incident and used a sleeping agent to incapacitate before going in…
Chemical or a sleeping agent would seep down low into basements and buildings.
At this point nothing should be ruled out. 
 
What about irritants commonly used in the West like tear gas, CS or pepper spray based irritants. If you’re not prepared to deal with that it can be a big disadvantage.
 
How is the west prepared for a use of chemical sleeping agent or widespread use of non lethal agents to tip the battlefield by Russia?
 
What sort of response would take place? Especially in light of Putins nuclear threat?

I hope that the current western resupply effort included chemical weapons defense equipment and training provided.
There is a general consensus that Russian troops don’t have the training , expertise or will to engage in close urban combat. Shelling probably isn’t enough to dislodge a determined resistance and history has shown blasting built up areas creates more problems for attackers.
Some have said the Russians are recruiting Syrians because they have experience in urban warfare. These same troops may also have experience in dealing with fighting in a chemical environment too.
When Russia was warned that chemical weapons was a red line that was not to be crossed in Syria, nothing happened and who was VP then?
Syria was not the first time Russia used chemical agents. A while back they had a hostage incident and used a sleeping agent to incapacitate before going in…
Chemical or a sleeping agent would seep down low into basements and buildings.
At this point nothing should be ruled out. 
 
What about irritants commonly used in the West like tear gas, CS or pepper spray based irritants. If you’re not prepared to deal with that it can be a big disadvantage.
 
How is the west prepared for a use of chemical sleeping agent or widespread use of non lethal agents to tip the battlefield by Russia?
 
What sort of response would take place? Especially in light of Putins nuclear threat?

After my Army service the rest of my career was in the nuclear engineering field (just recently retired). 3 degrees in nuclear engineering and 34 years experience in reactor plant testing, reactor plant design, radiation protection, and nuclear non-proliferation.
In the case of these plants not only have safety features improved, these particular plants are a completely different design than Chernobyl. The Chernobyl "explosion" (it was steam and hydrogen, not a nuclear explosion), was caused by a variety of factors including a rather bizarre design, and operating the plant in a dangerous manner, and then when things went wrong, operators not understanding how the plant would react. EVERY action they took made the situation worse and fed right into the design flaws.
A VVER reactor like the ones being fought over is a pressurized water reactor with up to the current standard safety features, and a robust containment building (Chernobyl didn't have a containment, and Russia had ironically justified that as their design and careful operation not needing it). To cause a serious problem you'd have to cut the off-site power to the plant, while also damaging/destroying all the backup diesel generators or their infrastructure that gets the power to the plants. What do they need power for? Cooling. Even a shutdown reactor needs continual cooling, and how much depends on the power history - how long operating at what power level before shutdown. Spent fuel is stored in cooling pools which also require water cooling. These are inside the containment. This is what happened at Fukushima - the Tsunami swamped the diesel generators and knocked out all electrical power to the region, so they got hot. The explosions seen at Fukushima were from hydrogen buildup in the containments. The sparkers that are designed to safely burn it off actually caused the explosions (old design). The containments at Fukushima were very old, dated designs.
It appeared from the feed that the fighting was going on around office buildings adjacent to the actual containment. These would be engineering, admin, labs, that are part of the plant. 
In short, while having a battle on the grounds of a nuke plant is generally a very bad idea, the potential for serious problem is certainly there, but not on the scale of Chernobyl or even Fukushima.
Hope that helps. Also, it seems this morning that the Ukrainians withdrew and Russians are controlling. Don't know what that means about operators, but the shooting stopped, thank goodness.
Dave
 

The Russian army doesn't appear to have a professional NCO Corps like we see in the west. Their Warrant Officers appear to be about the equivalent of a 1st Sergeant in the US military. It might explain the obvious breakdown of discipline being shown, especially with the looting.
https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/Hot Spots/Documents/Russia/2017-07-The-Russian-Way-of-War-Grau-Bartles.pdf

The M-72 is still being produced by Norwegian firm Nammo, 2000 of them are on their way from Norway to Ukraine now. 
Pål

The shelling already going on in urban areas is already causing outrage. Using a weapon that is an area weapon and has the potential to indiscriminately kill a lot of civilians in a particularly gruesome way is going to really outrage people. I'm not sure if hiding in a basement which would normally offer a good degree of protection from an artillery shell or missile would offer protection from a weapon that has significant heat and over pressure effects in addition to the large blast.
I know a lot of people are taking shelter in the subway system. If batteries of TOS1s were used on the subway entrances I'm not sure if the subways would offer a high degree of protection. If not and hundreds or thousands die because the air was sucked out of their lungs you're going to see some real international outrage.
If I'm not mistaken flamethrowers have been banned as are cluster bombs-although I don't think molotov cocktails which can incinerate people are not banned.
I just saw an article-Ukraine has made a complaint that Russia used a “vacuum bomb” that is banned. Don’t know if they were referring to thecTOS1 or something else.

Back in the day I would agree with this, but these days people, especially the younger generation post stuff on social media that in the past would be unthinkable.
The internet and social media is an intelligence goldmine. Back in the day millions/billions was spend gathering HUMINT.
Today you just scan the internet and social media.

So it is about 11 pm in Kyiv so let's summarize day 3 of this nasty bit of business.  If I miss anything feel free to jump in. [aside: people will recall when Iran shot down that Ukrainian airliner (just weird) how a bunch of internet nerds figured out where the shooter were before western intel did, well this little thread is doing one bang up job of intel analysis so I wanna try and capture that].
Caveat - this assessment is based on unclassified open source intelligence, much of it unverified or unverifiable at this time.
Strategic Level:  While the strategic causes of this military action by Russia remain vague and unconfirmed (i.e. I still have not seen a reason "why now" beyond "why not"), the overall most likely strategic objective is the total defeat of Ukraine as a nation, followed by installation of a puppet regime as a demonstration to NATO and western powers of Russian power in the region. 
The overall Russian strategy in this action was to overwhelm the Ukrainian forces quickly with a knockout blow aimed at Kyiv designed to break the will of Ukrainian resistance.  It appears that this objective was in a 48-72 hour window, other strategic objectives are largely unknow at this time (?).  One of the biggest strategic unknowns at this time is the overall will of the Russian people to continue to prosecute this war, current Russian leadership likely remain fully committed and short of a regime change will not likely voluntarily pull out.
Over the last 72 hours Europe and the West appear to have solidified their stance on this war with respect to increasing sanctions and military support to the Ukraine.  China and India remain two global powers who have not engaged in punitive measures against Russia, nor have they provided direct support to Ukraine. Another unknown at this time is whether Turkey will close the Black Sea to additional Russian maritime forces.  
It is clear that outside Russia, at least, Russia has not managed to control the strategic narrative for this war nor have dis/mis information campaigns been effective widening divisions in Western responses.  In fact the opposite appear to be true as this action has created unity in NATO and the European community, at least in the short term.
Operational Level:
- As of 72 hours into the war there is evidence that Russia has not achieved air superiority, information/cyber superiority, decision superiority or effectively eroded the Ukrainian infrastructure (military or civilian) or power centers of gravity at the operational or tactical level.  Russian advances on a multi-pronged assault have made modest gains however it appears that some lines of advance may have stalled. 
- Russian casualties are likely high (again very hard to get specifics) or at least higher than expected.
- There are indications that Russian logistical systems have failed in some locations, whether this is an indicator of isolated issues or a broader issue remains unknown.  Evidence of fuel shortages has been presented suggesting disruption in operational LOCs
- Russian forces are currently of questionable quality along some axis of advance at least based on captured POWs.  Further based on largely anecdotal evidence, it appears that Russia has not employed a form of Mission Command, nor really provided any detailed SA to some Russian tactical units (again based on POW interviews).
- Latest reports are that heavy concentrations of artillery are forming one the outskirts of Kyiv, which could signal a shift in strategy from a "knock out maneuver" toward a more "shock and awe" approach, or the Russians have essentially opted for an attritional approach to Kyiv at least. 
- Ukrainian forces have demonstrated a level of lethality and coordination beyond expectations of open source analysts and likely Russian planners.  How much of this is do to outside support and how much is due to Russian setback remains unclear.  
Tactical:
- Ukrainian forces have broadcast examples of both ambush and deep strike, the role of specific military capability remains vague.   The effectiveness next gen ATGM systems and MANPADs remains unknown but reported high armored vehicle casualties indicate they have been effective.
Overall Summary:  As of the first 72 hours of the war, it appears that the Russian military has overestimated its own capabilities and/or the capabilities of Ukrainian resistance and has not likely met the timelines it had set during pre-war planning.  The assessment is that the next 24-48 hours will be critical in the outcome of this war and if Russian forces are not about to take Kyiv and inflict some serious damage to the Ukrainian people's will, their own strategic center of gravity will become more vulnerable. 
Did I miss anything?  Seriously, jump in.

If this end up being a complete Russian fiasco I would hate to be the generals who will have to face Putin.

I have to give President Zelenskyy the Man of the Year Award and great respect for the internal fortitude and courage he is showing in the face of overwhelming odds. Unlike others who fawn over dictators, talk tough, incite insurrection and chaos and bail when the going get tough, Zelenskyy has more than shown his meddle.
This is going to change a lot of people perceptions on the cast of characters who dominate the spotlight.
We've entered a new world...

Hard to say. Putin has been a smooth operator, but perhaps his success and ability to get away with murder has caught up with him.
Its also time to bring up China. By aligning with Putin and allowing Putin to move forces from the flank that was guarding the front with China they should be held to some account. They are trying to play it cool and not come out completely on Putin's side and make statements to the effect that both sides should negotiate, but who are they fooling? I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and believe the report that they really didn't believe Putin would actually go forward and launch and full scale assault and are now trying to backtrack, but still some punishment is in order.
I say we send Taiwan some Javelins, Stingers and dangle some F-15X's to send a message to China. They are complicit in Putin's venture into Ukraine.

I have to give President Zelenskyy the Man of the Year Award and great respect for the internal fortitude and courage he is showing in the face of overwhelming odds. Unlike others who fawn over dictators, talk tough, incite insurrection and chaos and bail when the going get tough, Zelenskyy has more than shown his meddle.
This is going to change a lot of people perceptions on the cast of characters who dominate the spotlight.
We've entered a new world...

I have to give President Zelenskyy the Man of the Year Award and great respect for the internal fortitude and courage he is showing in the face of overwhelming odds. Unlike others who fawn over dictators, talk tough, incite insurrection and chaos and bail when the going get tough, Zelenskyy has more than shown his meddle.
This is going to change a lot of people perceptions on the cast of characters who dominate the spotlight.
We've entered a new world...

You know this is what I can’t get past either.  Up until now Putin has been pretty careful and demonstrated nuance and sophistication in his strategies.  The list of successes is quite long, all based on careful manipulation of narrative, subversive tactics and a brilliant divide and conquer effort aimed at the west, US specifically.   Georgia, Estonia, Crimea, Donbas v1.0, Syria, the Arm-Azer conflict, democratic interference  and even in far flung corners like Africa Russia has been pulling off a string of wins by getting inside our calculus and leaving us in the west unable to decide what to do.
Then suddenly Putin wakes up one morning and says to himself, “hell let’s see if all out war will work”…?  Does not add up.  Further, what is the crisis worth risking all this?  Some say Ukraine entry into NATO but it was not like they were having the induction ceremony this week.  There was plenty of rumbling in the west to slow roll Ukraine entry for this exact reason.  So why the sudden need for extreme escalation?  
From a political and strategic perspective this does not make a lot of sense.  The risks are very high, the long term costs also high, so what is the pay off here?  It is too easy to say “he is crazy”, but he has not demonstrated this level of irrationality before.  It like there has been a glitch in the Matrix.  I am sure they will be trying to figure this one out for some time.

While there are lingering questions to what if anything was promised to Gorbachev regarding NATO expansion east after the collapse of the USSR, the west should not be surprised at what’s going on. NATO expansion east was bound to cause reaction by Russia and Ukraine’s geographical location and terrain makes it critical in the eyes of Russia.

The timing of all this is no coincidence. Putin knows his main adversary the US is politically divided. He has elements as well as key political figures who are sympathetic to his cause. Now is a good a time as any to move before this advantage slips away.

Putin may have a trump card to play to counter the economic sanctions. For the past few years Russia has been buying and stockpiling physical gold. With inflation running wild in the west due to out of control monetary policy stretching back to 2009 the price of gold has been holding steady and recently catching a bid.

Like drugs, controlling sales of physical gold is hard to control, regardless of economic sanctions and controls in place. There will always be a buyer and in a day and age where fiat currencies are coming under question due to mis-management, metals become more desirable to possess.

Then there is the question of US Federal Reserve policy. Inflation is running hot and to try and control it the Fed will have to raise rates. Problem is with the US deficit so high each basis point increase in rates will cause hundreds of billion in addition cost to the interest on debt already accrued. There are other potential perils in rate policy, but the bottom line is raising the US defense budget to meet growing threats may become problematical.

Then there is China. In the past the West in particular the US has been adept at playing China and Russia against one another. That day has passed. The action of the US over the past few years has made it difficult if not impossible to play China and Russia off against one another. Now China and Russia view the US as the main adversary and are working together to bring a slow and prolonged end to US dominance.

I have no idea hot the situation in the Ukraine will get, but I can see bad times all around.

Those brave enough to be protesting in Moscow have real courage and fortitude given what the consequences will probably be if arrested.
I just saw an article about crowdfunding and other ways you can help support the Ukrainian military. Didn't want to post link as I don't know if it would be ok to do so.
 
It was on Quartz-How to donate to the Ukrainian Army.

I am ashamed of the actions of my government, I hoped to the last that there would be no war and this is just a bluff. Now anti-war rallies are taking place all over Russia, no one supports this war, there are a bunch of idiots who support it, but I assure you that the majority of the population is AGAINST THIS WAR. 
I honestly empathize with Ukrainians, but in no case will I rejoice at the death of our Russian soldiers! Young guys who could live a long life and do so much good in life, and not die for the sake of crazy ideas. 
 


 

 

 


 

Not even close.  Iraqi Freedom in 2003, had about 310k and couldn't control a country with roughly the same population but 200k sq kms smaller.  And Iraq wasn't getting MANPADs and Javelins from outside allies.  So the insurgency gets ugly, Russian security forces get bled, and then the inevitable retribution gets broadcast on the internet.  Russia cannot bail because its propped up regime likely will not stand without support, it is personal now (sound familiar - Afghanistan).
All the while the economic sanctions squeeze.
So back to, "how exactly does Putin think this will end?"

For some reason I think that while China talks tough on China, it's just talk. Its also very risky. Amphibious operations are the most difficult to pull off. Taiwan only has a few beaches suitable for sea invasion and they are atrocious terrain for any invader. It heavily favors the defender. 
Any invasion would require serious preparation and as already demonstrated by events in Ukraine and serious preparation will be detected.
It would also probably have to be a large sea invasions as I doubt a airborne invasion alone would be sufficient. The naval forces available from the US and allied's  would be a formidable force and China would have to gain and maintain complete air and sea dominance.
The biggest threat to that IMO is the modern nuclear and conventional attack submarine. It wouldn't take much to serious disrupt a naval invasion from China.

While there are lingering questions to what if anything was promised to Gorbachev regarding NATO expansion east after the collapse of the USSR, the west should not be surprised at what’s going on. NATO expansion east was bound to cause reaction by Russia and Ukraine’s geographical location and terrain makes it critical in the eyes of Russia.

The timing of all this is no coincidence. Putin knows his main adversary the US is politically divided. He has elements as well as key political figures who are sympathetic to his cause. Now is a good a time as any to move before this advantage slips away.

Putin may have a trump card to play to counter the economic sanctions. For the past few years Russia has been buying and stockpiling physical gold. With inflation running wild in the west due to out of control monetary policy stretching back to 2009 the price of gold has been holding steady and recently catching a bid.

Like drugs, controlling sales of physical gold is hard to control, regardless of economic sanctions and controls in place. There will always be a buyer and in a day and age where fiat currencies are coming under question due to mis-management, metals become more desirable to possess.

Then there is the question of US Federal Reserve policy. Inflation is running hot and to try and control it the Fed will have to raise rates. Problem is with the US deficit so high each basis point increase in rates will cause hundreds of billion in addition cost to the interest on debt already accrued. There are other potential perils in rate policy, but the bottom line is raising the US defense budget to meet growing threats may become problematical.

Then there is China. In the past the West in particular the US has been adept at playing China and Russia against one another. That day has passed. The action of the US over the past few years has made it difficult if not impossible to play China and Russia off against one another. Now China and Russia view the US as the main adversary and are working together to bring a slow and prolonged end to US dominance.

I have no idea hot the situation in the Ukraine will get, but I can see bad times all around.

While there are lingering questions to what if anything was promised to Gorbachev regarding NATO expansion east after the collapse of the USSR, the west should not be surprised at what’s going on. NATO expansion east was bound to cause reaction by Russia and Ukraine’s geographical location and terrain makes it critical in the eyes of Russia.

The timing of all this is no coincidence. Putin knows his main adversary the US is politically divided. He has elements as well as key political figures who are sympathetic to his cause. Now is a good a time as any to move before this advantage slips away.

Putin may have a trump card to play to counter the economic sanctions. For the past few years Russia has been buying and stockpiling physical gold. With inflation running wild in the west due to out of control monetary policy stretching back to 2009 the price of gold has been holding steady and recently catching a bid.

Like drugs, controlling sales of physical gold is hard to control, regardless of economic sanctions and controls in place. There will always be a buyer and in a day and age where fiat currencies are coming under question due to mis-management, metals become more desirable to possess.

Then there is the question of US Federal Reserve policy. Inflation is running hot and to try and control it the Fed will have to raise rates. Problem is with the US deficit so high each basis point increase in rates will cause hundreds of billion in addition cost to the interest on debt already accrued. There are other potential perils in rate policy, but the bottom line is raising the US defense budget to meet growing threats may become problematical.

Then there is China. In the past the West in particular the US has been adept at playing China and Russia against one another. That day has passed. The action of the US over the past few years has made it difficult if not impossible to play China and Russia off against one another. Now China and Russia view the US as the main adversary and are working together to bring a slow and prolonged end to US dominance.

I have no idea hot the situation in the Ukraine will get, but I can see bad times all around.