Heirloom_Tomato

Follow up…ok, I think I have got the only solution that makes any sense: Putin and Prig are in love but cannot admit it to each other or themselves.  Only a rom-com scenario makes any sense in what we have seen - hear me out (and yes I am sober as I type this) 
Prig and Putin have known each other for years - him a working class ex-con trying to go straight, Putin a golden haired princess who is so lonely at the top.  They have been sharing stolen glances and smiles for years but neither has the courage…their worlds are too far apart.  Prig is desperate to get Putin to really see him, instead of a boom box outside in the rain he rolls up to Moscow with T90s and MLRS.  It was a romantic gesture of the highest order.  A demonstration of power and masculinity while being vulnerable at the same time.
Putin, like a sexy fox, flees to St Petersburg to hold up with a couple girlfriends…he can’t cope with all this - it is too much too fast.  He is into Prig but the man is both intoxicating and terrifying.  Putin throws out threats but he really does not mean them, inside his heart is pounding - should he?  He mustn’t.  He is so confused right now.  Should he call in airstrikes or run out on the M4 into his man’s arms?
Prig is wailing into the night with an electric guitar (and AD systems), he is in love so hard it hurts.  He bashes out With or Without You by U2…Russia holds it breath, the two star crossed lovers both in love and hate at the same time.  They resent each other for making that love into something that threatens to consume them both.  Finally Lushenko, a girlfriend to both from way back I the day talks them both off the ledge - “you are both love struck fools, stop now before you say something you cannot take back!”
Prig realizes it first.  Putin is a fox to be lured and must feel in control.  Prig has come on too strong.  He dials it back, goes back to the dorm and tells all the guys “he totally scored” but inside he is tortured by the waiting game.  
Putin has fooled himself that he is back in charge but deep inside knows it is too late.  He says strong words but everyone at work knows the truth - FFS would they just do it already.  Their love is self-destructive and wholly doomed but neither can look away - it is a storm that must happen….to be continued.

Putin: "I don't need ammo, I need a ride"

12:30
https://telesco.pe/bolshiepushki/4397
Claim - another Wagnerite units is crossing the border
12:39
https://t.me/dva_majors/18924
Claim - Video Tanks are moving toward Moscow [probably RU MOD]. Tanks in Moscow is a very sensitive topic for RU.
12:40
https://t.me/horevica/12823
Claim Voronezh Oil depot was attacked by KA-52
12:42
https://t.me/elite_rezerve/21856
Claim exchange rate for dollar 1 to 90, Euro 1 to 100 (exchange rate with three digits  is very sensitive topic for RU)
12:46
RU Nats are discussing that both Prig and Putin live in their own realities
12:50
https://t.me/juchkovsky/3705
Claim  that kadirovci indeed started to move toward Rostov. Not very smart move for Kremlin
.https://t.me/natalia_maximus_ZOV/17528
Claim - Rostov support Wagnerites. They help Wagnerites with water nad food
 
I am off for some time

11:04
https://t.me/zloy_zhurnalist/5377
Claim Wagnerites column toward Voronezh. Voronezh is calm but there is no military in the city.
https://t.me/anatoly_nesmiyan/10866
Nesmyan (Civilian Girkin)
Video - Heavy construction vehicles are moving toward Moscow to be used to block avenues of approach
11:08
https://t.me/dva_majors/18861
Volodin (RU parliament)
"The deputies stand for the consolidation of forces amd support the president," the speaker of the State Duma said. He noted that the Wagner fighters should be with their people and on the side of the law, protect the security of the Motherland and follow the orders of the Supreme Commander—in-chief, everything else is a betrayal.
11:08
https://t.me/rybar/48906
Rybar
Front Aviation is hitting M4 highway. Olr RU joke that eventually RU gov will bomb Voronezh to scare heinous westerners became reality.
11:13
https://t.me/rybar/48907
Rybar
And this is still playing into the hands of PMCs. We see online statements by Surovikin, Alekseev, Yunus-Bek Yevkurov. We see statements from the Department of Information and Mass Communications. We see the actions and consequences of giving instructions from the leadership of the Ministry of Defense.
But we do not see the main thing — at least some attempts at dialogue with the PMCs. Maybe Gerasimov and Shoigu profess the principle "there can be no dialogue with terrorists." But in this case, this principle does not work.
The speech of the military-political leadership — not only the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, but also the leadership of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation — would demonstrate the flexibility of the participants in the conflict. And it could show to the doubting and rushing souls that they are, there are military leaders who are not afraid to speak out.
But for some reason there is no such thing. There are only Prigozhin's words that Gerasimov and Shoigu "ran away", "withdrew themselves [out of the situation]" and "gave criminal orders".
11:21
https://t.me/fighter_bomber/12885
Fighter-bomber (VKS pilot)
Ru helicopter are flying now with one Wagnerite on board to make sure they do not fly to impropriate place. But nobody knows how he can  really understand where they are flying.
11:23
https://t.me/dva_majors/18871
Claim video from left side of the river at oil depot.
11:25
https://t.me/dva_majors/18872?single
Claim - videos of [unknown] military columns at Voronezh
11:30
https://t.me/anatoly_nesmiyan/10870
Nesmyan
Claim - video of firefigth at Voronezh. No further information

Special Mutiny Operation

Summary - Bla-bla-bla, everything will be fine I promise.

How to demilitarize a T-55 - Orc style
 
 

This but more. I was playing a massive PBEM many years ago and noticed I had a whole platoon routed and couldn't figure out why. I loaded up the last few turns and watched just that platoon until I could see what happened. 
I had smashed one of my opponents units and then sent in a whole platoon to go clear them out. Rookie mistake but I sent them all to move at once figuring they would cover each as they ran, no need to area fire to keep the fleeing enemy fleeing. As my platoon was filtering into his postions, the squads got a bit bunched up. One enemy stopped fleeing turned and fired a single shot. It hit one of my guys who was about to throw a grenade. He falls, the grenade bounces into the pile of friendlies. It goes off and down go a bunch of my men, including two others who were also just about to throw grenades. As they fall, their grenades also land at the feet of their comrades and a bunch more guys drop. One single bullet and he took out half a platoon.
I watched that single turn so many times because I just could not believe what I was seeing. Had we been playing real-time I would have missed it but instead I was able to go back a few turns and see what I had missed. WEGO only ever since.

Some our "armchair generals" already plan such things - to attack on the section Dniprorudne - Vasylivka, when the water will go further and the bottom will dry. 
But historically this wasn't flat place. This was a so-called "Great Meadow" - homeland of Zaporozhian Cossaks. The region of southands small rivers, creecks, tiny lakes - it in more modern times called "Dnipro plavni" - the meadows, which flooded after snow melting. 
Locals already are finding old artefacts on the bottom of reservoir. After the war it will be holiday for "dark archeologists" 
Old pistole or sawn-off rifle

Likely WWII German graves washed out by water
Wrecked vessel

The place of old bridge, I can't understand where it can be... There wasn't bridge between Nikopol and Kamyanka, only a ferry. Germans tried to build, but hadn't a time, only several concrete pierces were seen from water. 

And here is a fragment of German map for 1942 how looked this place, when water reservoir doesn't exist
 
 

Good lord that is a tough one. So are we talking leadership training?  Sounds like it.  Battlefield leadership and resilience is a big freakin topic.  If I had 15 mins before jumping off the truck and running into it:
- Don’t get pulled too far in.  Combat is pretty wild and it is easy to get pulled too far into a single crisis.  The reality is that is all crisis.  A tactical line leader needs to keep one step back and try and see the system of crisis as it unfolds.  If the leader is pulled in too far they lose the picture they need to sustain in order to give their people the best chances and to keep the pointed at the enemy.
- Don’t get pulled too far back.  Fear and shock is normal but once the initial contact is made leaders cannot suck too far back.  You do that and the troops feel abandoned and you start to lose the ability to get a feel of how the whole machine is holding together.
- Combat is a longer game than people think.  Once the initial actions and shooting start, the drama starts to normalize.  Leaders need to stay on top of that.  Normalize can mean troops get sloppy…they got into combat and did not die…so now what?  Also the need to watch out for sustainment.  Modern western troops were set up for about 20 mins of sustained combat before air or indirect firepower came to the rescue.  The UA guys do not have this, so they might have to settle in and make their ammo last - so back to basics like fire discipline and marksmanship (yep they still matter).
- On Basics - build them in as priority and stick to them. Once the lead starts flying and people start screaming everything else strips away.  You are left with relationships and trust you built up to that point (ie each other) and the basic skills you have beaten into their brains.  Something as simple as IAs and stoppages and simply keeping you weapon in operation can be really hard under fire unless it is beaten into muscle memory.  Have the troops practice the most mundane things, hundreds of times.
- Slow is smooth, smooth is fast.  Be deliberate and as calm as you can be at all times.  Calm like panic is contagious.  If the leader is not freaking out, the troops likely won’t either.  Be deliberate, take the few extra seconds to pull order together.  Get past scared, get past mad and get cold.  You should literally feel cold inside - once you get there it gets a lot easier.  People become systems.  The enemy is a metric.  Really hard to describe this space but you have a mission and everything else, including you are simply means to that end, or a obstacle to remove.
- Build trust and use it.  As a ground force leader your weapon is the unit.  It is only as good as you kept it before the shooting started.  In combat let it do its job and try hard to stay out of people’s way.  There is an art to knowing when to step in and when not too.
- Leadership is nothing like the movies or even the BS fed in basic. It starts with whipping the troops in training while driving them in front of you, then it shifts to walking with them under fire - lean on each other.  In the back end you will be out in front pulling, sometimes begging and pleading to get them across the finish line.  Again quiet calm is the norm.  Then when you do yell or swear everyone really pays attention because it is so much out of character.
- Establish depth and redundancy…everywhere.  Everyone has a 2 IC, 3 IC and then last man standing.  I cannot describe how fast the famous “chain of command” can fall apart.  So build it deep.  Also leave room for informal leaders, they will emerge.
- Don’t be a hero, your people do not need one.  Some guys go in looking for that hero moment but that often only gets people killed.  A hero gets in and gets the job done while keeping as many of his people alive as he can.  Take opportunities if the come but don’t lean too far forward at the expense of peoples lives.
- Little things matter so much.  A joke, a quiet word a little luxury and a small sacrifice.  For some troops when they get ragged these little things make all the difference and can sustain them.
- Finally, and this is the hardest one, do not forget that you and your people are ammunition. Your job is to spend them on problems. Worse, your job is to convince them that it is worth it.  Once the war is over you are going to be living with this fact for the rest of you life.  You only get to put that one down at the end.  You will spend those years writing reference letters for jobs they are applying for, checking in on the survivors and people left behind, and re-living every decision you made.  Just accept that and move on but never forget the weight of this thing, that is your end.
Beyond that, resilience is a lot about understanding what is happening to you.  If you can name it, you take its power away.  You need to be really self aware and do self checks,  Cannot stress the importance of the lead NCO and officer team in this.  You and your troop or company NCO need to really be able to gauge where each other are at as a check and balance system.  And none of it makes sense.  You might get into three firefights and are fine, then once fourth you freeze up.  Why you froze up could be anything in the human soup.  You need to understand it is happening and hand off as quickly as possible.  Then get over it because it may never happen again.  If it happens a lot or all the time - you are not a coward, you are simply too evolved for this business.  Time to get pulled off the line and go do an important job somewhere else.  Perhaps you are a brilliant staff officer or analyst that can save hundreds of lives.  Everyone will break eventually (well anyone who is not a complete psychopath) it is a matter of when, not if…even you.

Ok, well things are getting clearer.  Retreating Bradley’s are extracting.  One flies by, second one clearly hit a land mine.  Troops de-bus, no panic the take cover while the gun camera Bradley provides covering fire (ballsy not to simply bail).  Everyone starts popping smoke and troops jump on Bradley to get out of there.
First point shows why it is a bad idea to try to drive back out.  Always push, if you get hit at least you have cleared as far as you got. But I suspect things had gone so wrong they abandoned the mission.  Second troops were controlled and did the right thing post mine strike. Third, no RA artillery. Now I am sure they were very concerned it was going to start dropping but that minefield is not being effectively covered.  Those two videos are four minutes, RA mortars should at least be hammering them - and we are glad they weren’t but that is poor cover of an obstacle.
Lastly, no idea what they were shooting at but obviously in treeline in direction of gun and popped smoke.  So best guess, a recon in force got hit by ATGM from a treeline.  Likely lost breaching vehicles.   At least two Bradleys tried to drive back out (bad) other may have been hit coming or going.  Hit more mines because they were in a Devils OODA loop but that gun Bradley looks like it kept it head and got those troops out because we don’t see a lot of bodies in the Russian videos.  
So bad day in a minefield, looks like most of the troops out alive, so they live to fight again and have proven recon is a dangerous job.  RA still have tank hunting teams and their arty support is questionable (at least in this area).  Hardly a disaster, some AAR points but no need to start calling the Kremlin to discuss terms yet.

Well that is what a minefield breaching operation going very wrong looks like.  
Before everyone freaks out the vehicles that kept pushing are supposed to do that.  Backing out is just asking to die and impossible to do in column, he saw the RA prove this over and over again.  If your breaching vehicle takes a hit - and that appears to be the Leo, you keep pushing even if it means taking casualties.  We would do the exact same thing.  I mean what are the options?  Stop, wait for help or talk things over while the enemy kills you inside a minefield?  Back out along the one cleared path…while the enemy kills you in a minefield?  Nope you push.  Difference between the UA and the RA is that the Leo has a mine plow on the front (which is odd, that is the deep end of clearance, they should be sticking with rollers).  The RA was just straight pushing.
What is interesting is again the lack of any real RA artillery.  No big craters or impact marks.  Vehicles look like they took mobility hits (except that one) and the crews bailed and ran.  When we do these ops each Combat Team would do two breaches and accept that one is going to die.  This is the video from the failed one.
We said this from the start - western kit does not come with magic wizard shields that allow them to float above the ground and drive their enemies before them.  They blow up just the same as Russian kit.  We were always going to see this, and we will likely see more.  Russian info sphere is going to push out any and all of these that it can.  So buckle in and put your helmets on.

I think this is part of the wider strategy behind blowing the dam. @Haiduk has posted twice in the past 24 hours the Russians are trying to blow up the ammonia pipeline. This pipeline provides ammonia for fertilizer. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/how-un-plan-russian-ammonia-export-could-help-global-fertiliser-market-2022-09-14/
The reservoir currently draining through the blown dam provides the irrigation water to 80% of Ukraine's irrigated crop land. 
So if the fertilizer supply is impacted and prices for fertilizer go up, either the price for crops needs to increase to cover the extra expense or farmers will use less fertilizer and yields will decrease. Either way, the consumer will pay more for food. With the water supply for irrigation impacted until the dam can be repaired, the supply of food will go down and prices up. As @billbindc says, governments fall rather quickly when food prices get out of control. I think the Russians are hoping the rest of the world will put increasingly more pressure on Ukraine to accept a ceasefire to stabilize the price of food.
If you have a garden at home, or room for even a few plants, it is not too late to plant a few more rows or a couple of extra tomato plants. Every extra pound of food you can grow for yourself this season, will not only secure your food supply, it will free up food for those who can't grow their own.

If they're smart they'll avoid Toronto. No one deserves the Maple Leafs inflicted on them....

Albania's representative to the UN saying what I think a lot of people are feeling these days about Russia's claims.
Mr.Hoxha put it very eloquently and professionally, but you can tell he has really had enough of listening to all this nonsense.

I think this is part of the wider strategy behind blowing the dam. @Haiduk has posted twice in the past 24 hours the Russians are trying to blow up the ammonia pipeline. This pipeline provides ammonia for fertilizer. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/how-un-plan-russian-ammonia-export-could-help-global-fertiliser-market-2022-09-14/
The reservoir currently draining through the blown dam provides the irrigation water to 80% of Ukraine's irrigated crop land. 
So if the fertilizer supply is impacted and prices for fertilizer go up, either the price for crops needs to increase to cover the extra expense or farmers will use less fertilizer and yields will decrease. Either way, the consumer will pay more for food. With the water supply for irrigation impacted until the dam can be repaired, the supply of food will go down and prices up. As @billbindc says, governments fall rather quickly when food prices get out of control. I think the Russians are hoping the rest of the world will put increasingly more pressure on Ukraine to accept a ceasefire to stabilize the price of food.
If you have a garden at home, or room for even a few plants, it is not too late to plant a few more rows or a couple of extra tomato plants. Every extra pound of food you can grow for yourself this season, will not only secure your food supply, it will free up food for those who can't grow their own.

I have the book, War Plan Red. Just waiting for the Canadians to make their way into CMCW for some sweet alternative reality battles. I used to live right beside a ferry crossing and bridge whose seizure were a part of the American plan. I am sure my old hunting blind along the river dike would be a perfect spot to setup an ATGM. 

I have the book, War Plan Red. Just waiting for the Canadians to make their way into CMCW for some sweet alternative reality battles. I used to live right beside a ferry crossing and bridge whose seizure were a part of the American plan. I am sure my old hunting blind along the river dike would be a perfect spot to setup an ATGM. 

I have the book, War Plan Red. Just waiting for the Canadians to make their way into CMCW for some sweet alternative reality battles. I used to live right beside a ferry crossing and bridge whose seizure were a part of the American plan. I am sure my old hunting blind along the river dike would be a perfect spot to setup an ATGM. 

I think this is part of the wider strategy behind blowing the dam. @Haiduk has posted twice in the past 24 hours the Russians are trying to blow up the ammonia pipeline. This pipeline provides ammonia for fertilizer. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/how-un-plan-russian-ammonia-export-could-help-global-fertiliser-market-2022-09-14/
The reservoir currently draining through the blown dam provides the irrigation water to 80% of Ukraine's irrigated crop land. 
So if the fertilizer supply is impacted and prices for fertilizer go up, either the price for crops needs to increase to cover the extra expense or farmers will use less fertilizer and yields will decrease. Either way, the consumer will pay more for food. With the water supply for irrigation impacted until the dam can be repaired, the supply of food will go down and prices up. As @billbindc says, governments fall rather quickly when food prices get out of control. I think the Russians are hoping the rest of the world will put increasingly more pressure on Ukraine to accept a ceasefire to stabilize the price of food.
If you have a garden at home, or room for even a few plants, it is not too late to plant a few more rows or a couple of extra tomato plants. Every extra pound of food you can grow for yourself this season, will not only secure your food supply, it will free up food for those who can't grow their own.

All very interesting but was not the reason the US withdrew from the agreement. The above had to do with Iran's previous activities, which the whole world knows involved research and development into nuclear weapons. They are supposed to account for all of it, but haven't come completely clean. Acknowledged. They are bad actors and likely always will be.
Before the Prelim JPA, Iran was 3 weeks away from being able to create enough material for one nuclear weapon, and there was worldwide carping to "DO SOMETHING". Hence the Prelim JPA followed by the JCPOA, which pushed that timeline back to one year+.  There are many safeguards in the JCPOA, not the least of which was limiting Iran's stock of enriched U to 300kg. This is only a fraction of what would be required to create even one weapon. Reconfiguring the Arak reactor eliminated their potential source of Pu, probably more important than enrichment restrictions.
Now that the US has withdrawn, Iran has resumed enrichment activities, put more centrifuges in operation, and has some U enriched to 60%. You need 90-ish% for a weapon. But the work required to get from 60% to 90% is much, much less than the work to get TO 60%. So here we are again. Iran is now a couple/three weeks away from amassing enough material for a weapon, should they choose to do so.
The JCPOA was working. Withdrawing from it was stupid, because we are now right back where we were years ago and there is no new agreement in sight. 
Dave

This pipeline in present time doesn't transport ammonia from Russia to Odesa, where located large chemical plant, involved in accumulation and supply of ammonium on world markets. But some remains of ammonia still inside the pipe and can be dangerous. 
Russia demands renewing of pipeline work and tried to tie this with prolongation of "grain deal", involving to this a lobby of African and some Asian countries, depending of fertilizers, using ammonium as productin component. 

I think this is part of the wider strategy behind blowing the dam. @Haiduk has posted twice in the past 24 hours the Russians are trying to blow up the ammonia pipeline. This pipeline provides ammonia for fertilizer. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/how-un-plan-russian-ammonia-export-could-help-global-fertiliser-market-2022-09-14/
The reservoir currently draining through the blown dam provides the irrigation water to 80% of Ukraine's irrigated crop land. 
So if the fertilizer supply is impacted and prices for fertilizer go up, either the price for crops needs to increase to cover the extra expense or farmers will use less fertilizer and yields will decrease. Either way, the consumer will pay more for food. With the water supply for irrigation impacted until the dam can be repaired, the supply of food will go down and prices up. As @billbindc says, governments fall rather quickly when food prices get out of control. I think the Russians are hoping the rest of the world will put increasingly more pressure on Ukraine to accept a ceasefire to stabilize the price of food.
If you have a garden at home, or room for even a few plants, it is not too late to plant a few more rows or a couple of extra tomato plants. Every extra pound of food you can grow for yourself this season, will not only secure your food supply, it will free up food for those who can't grow their own.

I think this is part of the wider strategy behind blowing the dam. @Haiduk has posted twice in the past 24 hours the Russians are trying to blow up the ammonia pipeline. This pipeline provides ammonia for fertilizer. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/how-un-plan-russian-ammonia-export-could-help-global-fertiliser-market-2022-09-14/
The reservoir currently draining through the blown dam provides the irrigation water to 80% of Ukraine's irrigated crop land. 
So if the fertilizer supply is impacted and prices for fertilizer go up, either the price for crops needs to increase to cover the extra expense or farmers will use less fertilizer and yields will decrease. Either way, the consumer will pay more for food. With the water supply for irrigation impacted until the dam can be repaired, the supply of food will go down and prices up. As @billbindc says, governments fall rather quickly when food prices get out of control. I think the Russians are hoping the rest of the world will put increasingly more pressure on Ukraine to accept a ceasefire to stabilize the price of food.
If you have a garden at home, or room for even a few plants, it is not too late to plant a few more rows or a couple of extra tomato plants. Every extra pound of food you can grow for yourself this season, will not only secure your food supply, it will free up food for those who can't grow their own.