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Probus

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  1. Like
    Probus reacted to danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Which brings us to the question of what is China really doing?  Are they just trying to make a few bucks while also keeping their old adversary weak?  If they wanted RU to actually win they'd be giving the good stuff like the west is giving.  Are they just trying to play both sides where they support RU enough to save face w Putin but also not so much as to anger the west?  And make a few bucks at the same time?  
  2. Like
    Probus reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Unless you build it far in the west where one can protect it, or in another country.  It is not like the Russians can see and hit every industrial site in Ukraine, if they could then they would have done it.  The best location is in the southwest, in the mountains near the Romanian/Hungarian border - but that is without knowing about Ukrainian infrastructure in that area:

    1000ish km and tough to hit if you dig it in.  But it will of course cost.
  3. Upvote
    Probus reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Now let’s not suddenly forget the real reason why China has risen to power…western greed.  We exported manufacturing and every other hard/increasingly expensive job to China because they would do it for a fraction of what western workers were demanding nor was governed by pesky workplace safety regulations.  We wanted cheap everything from Tshirts to running shoes to cellphones.  We did not admit China into the WTO until 2001 and by then we were over-invested in China for our lifestyles that no one could slow that train down:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_and_the_World_Trade_Organization#:~:text=China became a member of,changes to the Chinese economy.
    We had started this trend back in the 80s.  There was nothing altruistic or generous about any of this, it really was simply an extension of western benign (and sometimes not) imperial doctrine.  The Western Rules Based order was really designed to keep the West on top. China figured this out and used that system to rise to power.  They did it using Western money, not charitable intent.  China conducted a series of pretty radical economic reforms and the outsourced the industry we downloaded on them to places like Bangladesh and Vietnam.  They then reinvested in their own high tech and bolstered it with an historic industrial espionage campaign.
    None of this was “western misguided liberalism gone wrong” it was straight up pursuit of profit and reinforcing our own consumer based economies.  By the time we realized the problem in the mid ‘00 it was too late.  No politician, even Trump, could simply “drop China”.  Since then we have seen attempts at a gradual uncoupling but we are still too dependent on Asian manufacturing and industry, the pandemic showed this in spades.  And now we are stuck.  We either keep funding Chinese rise to power or try and roll the clock back to 1960, which we can’t do with current standards of living and economic realities.
    None of this was generous or high minded.  Anymore than British rule of India was.  It was a 20th century version of economic colonization, which like a lot of colonization came back around to bite.
  4. Like
    Probus reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I fully agree it would take some sort of epic crack up in the Putin regime for Ukraine to get it all back. But if the regimes DOES crack their are simply so many ways it could go all anybody will be able to do is try to surf the avalanche. 
  5. Like
    Probus reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I have no earthy idea what that was supposed to show.  I saw 5-6 gun trucks (at least one tank) make a gangsta style gun run into a town, entirely unsupported mind you.  And 2 came out, likely damaged.  They look like they ran around and shot things up at a vehicle loss of 3-4 and then drove back out.  Not sure what the point of that entire rodeo was but if it was to prove that the garden sheds that the Russian's are bolting on armor are working...well, not sold.
  6. Like
    Probus reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    And we are back to "define win."  Can Ukraine retake every inch of terrain back to pre-2014 lines...woohee that is a tall order.  I think they could but we could be talking years of grinding and western support - think Vietnam.
    Can they turn back recent Russian tactical gains and re-take some ground - yes.  Can they pull off another RA operational collapse...now that is the big question.  Theoretically, yes.  But since we are not even sure what it takes to do this right now it really is a crap shoot.
    Ukraine can definitely freeze this thing and keep bleeding Russia white.  The West has bought itself some runway to get its act together on organizing support.  NATO and the EU really need to step up because at least until this Nov (and possibly beyond) the US may prove to be an unreliable ally.  Worst case is Trump gets in and cuts off US support and guts NATO, because...reasons.  But that is six more  months of RA bleeding.  Ukraine needs to sort out its force generation as well.  Lot moving parts.  It is really a race to see who runs out of what first - a straight up war of Exhaustion.  Unless we get a Hail Mary and the UA can pull off something really dramatic.
    So solid, maybe, hopefully...we will see.  
  7. Like
    Probus reacted to JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Probably because the targets have dried up too.
  8. Like
    Probus reacted to Vacillator in How many PBEMs do you have going at once?   
    As mentioned elsewhere, having never played a battle in any modern title, I accepted a challenge from our good friend @Ultradave to play 'Czechmate' with me as Soviets.  To encourage me (😂) he said this was pretty much what he trained for in RL.  Great way to start, right?
    It's a very nice map and I'm starting to enjoy it but having initially lost several vehicles to TOWs from invisible launchers I'm being a bit more cautious and beginning to get spots on some of his units.  Not knowing much about modern weapons is a concern, as is my lack of long range AT assets at the current stage of the game - I have (sorry had) 4 T62s (now 3) but nothing else with range. That will change when the main force arrives.  None if this will come as a surprise to Dave so I'm not giving away much intel.
    Overall, I think if I view the exercise as a lesson from the master I will hopefully not be too disappointed when I lose...
  9. Like
    Probus got a reaction from Phantom Captain in How many PBEMs do you have going at once?   
    Five in total although 2 are mirrored. 4 FB and 1 BN. Just finished a SF2.
    What do you think of CW @Vacillator?
  10. Like
    Probus got a reaction from A Canadian Cat in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Amen!
  11. Upvote
    Probus got a reaction from A Canadian Cat in Best way to learn the game   
    That's what I did.  Go to the various opponent finder threads like this one:
    https://www.thefewgoodmen.com/thefgmforum/forums/combat-mission-opponent-finder.451/
  12. Like
    Probus reacted to Bootie in First fanmade CampaignPack "Summer of Destruction" is released (no charge)   
    Hi Guys
    I have uploaded the campaigns into The Scenario Depot under a single zip file.  On my return from family commitments on Monday I will upload the map pack for you all to enjoy.  Good work Frank!
    https://www.thefewgoodmen.com/tsd3/cm-red-thunder/cm-red-thunder-campaigns/cmrt-summer-of-destruction-campaign/
  13. Like
    Probus got a reaction from Ultradave in The year to come - 2024 (Part 2)   
    Combat Mission:Drone Wars
  14. Like
    Probus got a reaction from A Canadian Cat in The year to come - 2024 (Part 2)   
    Combat Mission:Drone Wars
  15. Like
    Probus got a reaction from Jackal2100 in PBEM Player Guidelines   
    @BFCElvis just started a thread about jeeps that includes their role in reconnaissance:
     
  16. Upvote
    Probus got a reaction from OldSarge in PBEM Player Guidelines   
    I often use a jeep in this fashion. To probe enemy lines and use it's speed as a defence. Then open up on any positions that fire at the jeeps with overwatching tanks.  It works 1/2 the time.  I didn't realize it was 'gamey'.
    I am also notorious for using the Recon by Fire tactic.  I'm attacking a town in CMBN currently and one of the first things I did was hose down the church bell tower.
  17. Like
    Probus got a reaction from BFCElvis in Jeeps   
    That's funny.  We were just talking about jeeps and reconnaissance over in the PBEM thread:
     
  18. Like
    Probus reacted to Centurian52 in PBEM Player Guidelines   
    Yeah. You can get away with it against the AI. But they're almost always one of the firs things I shoot at. One of the lesson's from Monty Python's "How Not To Be Seen" is that you shouldn't hide behind the only bush in the field.
     
  19. Like
    Probus got a reaction from Bannon in PBEM Player Guidelines   
    I often use a jeep in this fashion. To probe enemy lines and use it's speed as a defence. Then open up on any positions that fire at the jeeps with overwatching tanks.  It works 1/2 the time.  I didn't realize it was 'gamey'.
    I am also notorious for using the Recon by Fire tactic.  I'm attacking a town in CMBN currently and one of the first things I did was hose down the church bell tower.
  20. Like
    Probus got a reaction from Centurian52 in PBEM Player Guidelines   
    I often use a jeep in this fashion. To probe enemy lines and use it's speed as a defence. Then open up on any positions that fire at the jeeps with overwatching tanks.  It works 1/2 the time.  I didn't realize it was 'gamey'.
    I am also notorious for using the Recon by Fire tactic.  I'm attacking a town in CMBN currently and one of the first things I did was hose down the church bell tower.
  21. Like
    Probus reacted to Centurian52 in PBEM Player Guidelines   
    Not gamey at all. Using fire to deny an area to the enemy is a real tactic. Free Whisky actually did a video on how best to use artillery in Combat Mission. He describes four types of effects that artillery strives to achieve in real life, and which can be recreated in Combat Mission:
    Suppress: Keep the enemy's heads down.
    Obscure: Prevent the enemy from seeing your troops.
    Secure: Prevent the enemy from occupying a piece of terrain by making it too dangerous.
    Reduce: Inflict casualties on the enemy.
    There's no doubt a similar formal list of effects that you can achieve with direct fire, whether it be from small arms or tanks/IFVs. But as I haven't come across it yet, here's my somewhat less formal (and not necessarily comprehensive) list of what you can do with direct fire:
    Suppressive fire: Keep the enemy's heads down.
    Recon-by-fire: Find the enemy by shooting at suspected positions, baiting them to shoot back.
    Secure: Make a position dangerous for the enemy to occupy by shooting at it.
    Destructive fire: Inflict casualties on the enemy.
    Fire is a tool. Ultimately we want to use that tool to destroy the enemy. But it has many other uses that can make it easier to reach that ultimate goal, or make it harder for the enemy to destroy you. If you can think of any way to use fire to manipulate the enemy into doing what you want (or not doing what you don't want), then that's a legitimate use of fire, and one that has probably been used at some point in the real world.
     
  22. Like
    Probus reacted to Erwin in PBEM Player Guidelines   
    ??  One has to assign all "prep fire" in the setup turn.  The only choice (for offmap arty) is whether it is "immediate" or starts 5, 10 or 15 minutes later.  Prep fire from an onmap gun is always "immediate" (onmap arty fire cannot be delayed).
    I cannot see how firing on possible approaches is gamey.  The only house rule that makes sense is "No firing on known enemy set-up locations on turn 1."  (How would one know where the enemy set-up locations are without first loading the game as the enemy player?)
  23. Like
    Probus reacted to Vacillator in PBEM Player Guidelines   
    And you've ended up playing me 😂.  I am reasonably flexible.
    On a serious note I think playing other humans is the best way to be challenged.  You may or may not find that with me, but you surely will with others.
  24. Like
    Probus reacted to Ultradave in PBEM Player Guidelines   
    Well, I have to disagree with this and @Artkin. What you describe is *exactly* what I'd do in real life. 
    But, hey, make any rules you want in agreement with your opponent.
    Taking away that capability, to me, would remove a perfectly valid tactic. I'd do that even without the TOW firing from the woods. Ooh, look, treeline ahead. Blast it with whatever we've got to keep their heads down, while I have maneuver elements close in. Is it really that much different than putting a smoke screen in front of the treeline even if you haven't spotted anything? Pretty much accomplishes the same thing.

    Dave
  25. Like
    Probus reacted to Brille in PBEM Player Guidelines   
    My rules are as follows and agree to most of the Community, I guess:
    - No artillery or air raids in the setup zones or close to it for the first turns (except on defenders setup zone)
    - No preplanned arty or air raids for meeting engagements. 
    Just 2 simple ones Id like to have for every engagement. The last one can be discussed with the oponent, so it is not set in stone.
    Everything else is optional. Some I like to take for more immersion and a more realistic feel, some I like to take to make matches more balanced. (e.g. italian vs everyone else )

    In general I like that one but in my opinion it would be wrong to cancel area fire all together.
    However I have sometimes seen players standing behind with their tanks and blast everything at an instant as soon as their infantry has found the enemy.
    And while Im guilty of this myself to a degree I really try to play like that more often than not.
    Keeping a good C2 between infantry and tanks to make them notice contacts faster is one way to go.
    In general though I find the disadvantages of keeping no command structure not great enough.
    Would be cool that you could only area fire with a delay when no contacts are noted by the unit itself. Imagine it pretty much like calling artillery. On the other hand you could call for fire at an instand when a tank knows that enemy troops are around that point.
    Another thing I wish for CMx3...
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