Probus

Did you really find my idea that ridiculous?

By the way...

Ah ha! Someone is finally catching on!
I think it was either 007 or Spectre, but I'll have a hard time proving it.  Everyone seems to think it was from Russia with love because, for them,  the world is not enough. 😉

In your posts, the influence of Russian propaganda is noticeable. Obviously, frequent exposure to pro-Russian resources does not benefit the objectivity of judgments

War of Independence, indeed.
My go-to map guy (other than @Grigb) HeliosRunner has taken personal leave for the duration, so I am rooting around for decent maps (non Google).  Pfarrer uses topos, but he also covers them with textboxes and little explosion doodads and Giant Blue Arrows of Doom.  Anyway, will keep looking.  This snip was interesting.... so clearly the Zherebets above Zarichne will NOT make a viable RU defensive line, even temporarily.
 

Good video illustrating you're point:

RU discovered cunning UKR tactic
 

I am going to ignore most of your rant, frankly if anyone were to push that kind of hatred towards any other group they would get tossed off this forum pretty quickly; however, we live in odd times.  
The Russian military and political system are responsible for this war.  I have no doubt some of the population does as well; however to blame an entire people - who you don’t recognize as a people, yet point to them as an evil homogeneous empire that has been a threat for hundreds of years - down to many who have nothing to do with this or actively opposed it, nor had a say in it because Russia lacks a democratic system, is wrong on so many levels.
If in your fractured Russian scenario - the one you are promoting, and I notice no denial of you promoting cultural genocide either btw- Russian elderly, women and children show up on on your borders in a humanitarian crisis I expect you and your nation to be better than the a$$holes we are currently supporting your nation against.  If you cannot do that - and for the record I really do not believe you represent your nation - then why are we even bothering with this whole war?  If a post-war Ukraine is suppressing democracy in re-taken regions, actively supporting civil strife in former Russian fragments (which would have to be in your plan), and let potentially thousands of people die because of their ethnicity (oh wait Russian isn’t a thing, so, how will you tell who to keep out) - the what the hell are we defending here?
If we wanted a brutal regime in Ukraine to ignore human rights and suppress freedoms based on pseudo-ethnicity then why we didn’t we just sit back and let Russia take the damn place?
I stand with Ukraine in this war, but I do not stand with you on this.  We want a Ukraine with a fully functional democracy for all its citizens, a Ukraine that recognizes and operates under international law and respects human rights, regardless of who is suffering.  That is the Ukraine that gets into NATO/EU - with Hungarian arm twisting if need be.  That is the Ukraine we invest hundreds of billions in reconstruction. That is the Ukraine we support and enforce Russian accountability for.
Not whatever nightmare you are selling here.

Gosh golly, there's a war going on?  And this thread is supposed to be about that?  I'll be darned.  Thanks for this update, GrigB.  
So looks like that's the last road that can supply Lyman area?  And I've heard around 2000 troops estimated in the area?  Those 2000 seem to have actually fought hard, so it'll be nice to get them out of the war.  I think we can safely assume their replacements will be less capable and willing.

Sure. Good luck hiding that in the Baltic. Still, thank you for distracting us from all the flirting going on.
It is to be fair very likely that the charges on the pipelines were rigged days ago, and either on timers or remotely triggered. Why be spotted at the scene of the crime when you can have high confidence nobody's going to ask what those strange lumps attached to the pipe are.
But that also means it's possible a surface vessel launched a submersible of some form, or even just divers. How many trawlers have been in that area in the last couple of weeks?
(I almost asked Russian trawlers, but I'm refusing to assume which country was responsible. I could name five that might think they'd heavily benefit, and that's not including the French.)
 
 

Was going to say about 90 things, someone else got o most of them first.
We are sort of stuck off topic, or at least on the uppermost political level of the topic. Even with very interesting tactical, and operational developments.
Steve needs to go for the last option to bring things back into line. Release real info about the new game. So we can all tell him he is doing it wrong, while we frantically pre order it. I suggest he double the price and send the proceeds, and a complementary copy, to the Ukrainian MOD. It solves about five problems at once. It isn't a cold hearted attempt to take advantage, its a fundraiser!  
 

In my humble but correct opinion 😁, Putin just couldn't stand not using his shiny new submarine the Belgorod which is specifically designed to work on the bottom of the ocean.
 

Probably made a new bridge out of the tanks wrecks Russia left there in its own crossing attempt in the summer. hah

Really need RU lines to crack, somewhere.  This is probably pretty costly for these heroic UKR soldiers.  I couldn't care less about RU soldiers.  They can flee, surrender or face the consequences since they are thieves caught in the neighbor's house.
Anyone ever watch any videos by this Russian kid?  He's been posting on YT for months, mostly from petersburg.  Here's he's talking about RU folks fleeing and 36 hour lines at border checkpoints.  I also notice he looks like he's posting this from a hotel -- is he hiding I wonder?  He doesn't mention whether he's on the conscription list or not.  He seems like a good kid, I hope he ends up OK.   Actually I'm surprised he's not been shut down thus far.
 

Both NS1 and NS2 seems to be having problems and there's talks of sabotage:
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-germany-berlin-sweden-9ac152e4e4a195bb78dacd4d270ef9cb
https://www.morgenpost.de/politik/article236531971/pipeline-nord-stream-2-gazprom-sabotage.html
https://www.nord-stream.com/press-info/press-releases/pressure-drop-on-both-strings-of-the-gas-pipeline-526/
This seems like some sort of economic warfare but who on whom, I have no idea.

40K more and they'll have gotten their 300K mobilization.  
Just all pointed in the wrong direction.

Apropos of a lazy Sunday afternoon, some (many) pages ago there was considerable debate about "signmyrocket.com".

Mine came through a few minutes ago:

I see no other option.
--
On a lighter note..
 

I think we can safely assume that on the attractiveness scale your wife is a 10 and you are a 3, more or less.  So you have to make up the difference through good behavior, or else one day she'll wise up and leave you for the first 5 or 6 that comes along.  🙂
I make up the difference via doing dishes, getting her latte on weekend morning, etc.  Must keep them distracted like this or they will catch on that we are not worthy.  If she sees a pile of dirty dishes in the kitchen she might start to notice other things that are not in your favor.

Ahhhh,   I hope your solemn regret remark is the BS work and NOT the getting married part.  And if you also meant the latter, for god's sake, don't let your fiance ever read this board.... 😂

Unlikely.

Protests escalating further, RU Nats must be sweating profusely.
https://imgur.com/j90pkEH
I apologize in advance for taking the piss out of the résistance.
 
 

Crimea, like any other piece of land, belongs to "those who reside there", not based on any written constitutions (which in theory codify both natural principles and operations / administration to enact those principles) but on the overall natural principle of self-determination.

This has been discussed; some more perspective and addressing of topics below.
In Canada, Quebec (a large province) has had two referenda on separation.  The last one - 1995 - was on the brink of success, and as a result there is now a federal law on the conditions for separation, called the "Clarity Act".  
What about the portions of a province that don't want to secede?  For example, in Quebec there are many regions / enclaves who wish to remain in Canada - mostly Anglo, but not all.  What about the various indigenous groups, most governed by the Indian Act, that prefer to be part of Canada vs. part of Quebec?  
What about the people who have been run out of the province?  Various pieces of legislation have pushed mostly-Anglos out of Quebec for about fifty years (I don't have a reference for that, but I recall kids in high school who exited with their families as a result of concern about their social and economic future).  Should they get a say in the next referendum, if there is one?
Why do lines on a map matter?  Because they set boundaries for social, economic and legal systems and opportunities, and strategic risks and opportunities.  They matter a lot.  If an American crosses the border to Canada with a restricted (in Canada) firearm (and no paperwork), serious consequences.  If a Canadian lands in Singapore with a joint - very serious consequences.
Applying this to Crimea / Donbas:
most importantly and differently from the Quebec example, they were taken forcibly and recently by a foreign state, so they should be returned "to" the original government to prevent the moral hazard where, in future, other states nibble provinces from each other.  If something is successful, it will be repeated. Having said that, the costs and risks of returning them to Ukraine will be and are being weighed against the moral hazard issue by Ukraine and its supporters.  The Ukraine government's maximalist position of all of the Donbas and Crimea is either a firm position or setting a stance for eventual negotiation - no way to tell. once returned: do the people in those regions want to be part of Ukraine?  If after a few years of stabilization, rebuilding, return of kidnapped and displaced persons, purging of RU agents and land occupiers (people who moved on to stolen land vs. purchased a nice house voluntarily on the market), there is overwhelming support for separation, what then?  The two basic alternatives are the use of force, which always results in insurgency and civil war, or a negotiated handshake and well-wishes with post-separation cultural, political and economic ties maintained.  On the first, perhaps civil war / insurgency is worth it in return for keeping the Russian Armed Forces physically further away from the rest of Ukraine - or not.  On the second (and the first ,for that matter), for the minority who wish to remain "in" Ukraine - sucks to be you, see the Quebec example above.   So there is no simple answer, and no risk-free way forward.  I'm on the "return them and them sort it out in a few years" camp because on balance, I think that that minimizes total (present, near-future and mid-term future) risk and maximizes 'fairness', which means different things to different people but unites the people (not governments) of the West. "Fair" and "realpolitik" are not always the same thing - when in conflict, choose realpolitik and try to turn it into fair later, but fair should weigh in.
One issue that hangs over all of this is the Western idea that every problem can have a good solution with sufficient good will and energy applied to same.  History, the present, and common sense tells us that not all problems have a solution that rises above neutral.  The current problem has, I think, at best a neutral outcome and likely only choices between bad, really bad, disastrously bad, and catastrophically bad.  Or, between ungood and double-plus ungood.

Going back to uncertainty, the Russian state could suffer a near-term peripheral collapse which would change the calculus entirely - my prediction on this is early 2026.  But it could be earlier, later, or not at all.
Someone - possibly the_capt - said that one good alternative is to leave the post 2014 borders, wait for Russian  to collapse and / or to abuse and neglect Donbas / Crimea and then try to re-unite them with Ukraine.  Not a bad idea - but strike while the iron is hot, and if not hot enough now, then make it hot by striking.  If we wait, apathy and inertia set in and the status quo gets entrenched - and Russia will never respect the will of the regions, so if in future they wish to re-unite it will be bloody regardless.
I get more "likes" from memes than from determined typing, so here is a meme  :


 
 
 

ignoring my re inforcements when they turn up and completely forgetting about them lol

my eyes!  My eyes!  Not even a warning @akd?