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fireship4

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  1. Like
    fireship4 got a reaction from The Steppenwulf in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    They do I think, if they believe in anything at all.  And you don't ask someone to be grateful if you save their life, you do it or you don't do it.
  2. Like
    fireship4 got a reaction from Hister in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This portion of his latest post is worth a read:
     
  3. Like
    fireship4 reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    So for the record, calling Jomini a "little conservative" is akin to calling Billy Graham "a little religious" - the man tried to create a deterministic theory of warfare based on geometry, and Clausewitz called him on it...and frankly I think Uncle Carl was extremely conservative by modern standards.
    That said, I am not sure what the story is around Severodonetsk to be honest.  I completely disagree with J of the West assessment that Severodonetsk is a "strategic decisive point for the RAF" and by taking it they gain "a pivot for operations" and a "pivot for manoeuvre".  If we look at wiki for the latest situation:

    And then a G-Earth shot (I will try and do an MFSF flight later):

    None of what J of W is stating as "importance" makes sense.  If this was a break out battle over the river and to take Lysynchansk, maybe.  But his argument that the "undefendable terrain of the western Donetsk Oblast" on the other side of this river, also make no sense as we know the RA advances out of Popasna have stalled.  As have the attempts coming down from the North out of Izyum...this is all the same type of rolling terrain spotty with water features.  The idea that if the RAF somehow takes the far bank town of Severodonetsk it is set up for a rolling breakout manoeuvre battle is sensationalism at best, and applying metrics from the Gulf War to this one at worst.  If the RA takes Severodonetsk, they still have a major water obstacle dominated by a very long ridge line to try and assault, then more urban area, and then rolling terrain which the UA has stopped them on along other axis.  So seriously, WTF "Jomini of the West"?
    This battle is likely more along the lines of Verdun albeit what I suspect are for different reasons (I am not sure of the historical angle but Haiduk did mention this was a big fight in WW2).  This is a "I want that" and "you can't have it...jerk" type fight.  The UA is there because it is a spot they can make the RA's life miserable an pull in forces. The RA wants it...well why does the RA want anything?  Likely because Putin has been briefed and figures it is also "really important" for reasons.
    This battle is interesting in 1) it is definitely attritional, and 2) it looks like it may be the one spot where the Russians have managed to create information parity (but I have a major caveat to this).  The noise about guns and UA casualties is just that "noise".  The UA is not stupid, that is one thing they have proven in this war.  They would not be holding onto a far bank defence - one they really do not need - unless there was some serious advantage attached to it.  My bet is that it comes down to two things: the concentration of arty and EW.
    Lets leverage Jomini for a second and lay it out (in some ways he was not wrong):

    I am going to be extremely generous here and say the RA has its guns positioned within 30km of Severodonetsk based on ranges (D-20s do about 18 and the Pions can reach out at about 37, so for arguments sake).  That is a slice of a pizza that is 188 km around.  The Russians can realistically put their guns in about 1/3 of that circle - so about a 63 km arc, which translates into about 942 sq kms.  At "900 guns" that is a density of a gun per sq km.  That is a pretty high density of gun positions - not WWI - but likely the highest of this war.  Further you have all the logistics to support all them guns.  
    Finally, the RA has concentrated a lot of EW to try and make this op box go dark for the UA: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-technology-90d760f01105b9aaf1886427dbfba917  All these emitters are pumping out an ungodly amount of EM and easily visible.
    So what?  Well there is a lot of talk of Ukrainian losses in this fight, and I believe them.  But war is negotiation and sacrifice.  Those lives are not being spent for the far bank town the UA really does not need.  They are likely being spent to pull in the concentration of arty and EM...so the UA can hit them - attrition, like tracers, cuts both ways.  What is missing from all this is the RA losses on key arty, EM and logistics because  they are concentrating them around and on top of this operationally near-worthless town, that when successfully taken will bring all the joy of a colicky baby because you still have to take that brutal set of ridges...on the other side of a freakin river.
    We have no idea how bad the Russians are taking it right now, because "dark box"...but you know who does...the UA.   The one thing all that EW cannot turn off are the space-based ISR assets that the West (primarily the US) are beaming directly to the UA.  All those RA assets are very visible to multi-spectral space-based ISR and I have every faith are being hit regularly in this fight; it is the only thing that makes any sense - the UA are trading infantry for RA arty, EW and logistics right now.  If they wanted to trade infantry-for-infantry they would be doing it from all those ridges, which is the the obvious fallback position.
    The Russians on the other hand are trading their own critical resources so that Putin can declare a "great victory" of very little military value - just like they have done throughout this war.
  4. Like
    fireship4 got a reaction from G.I. Joe in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This portion of his latest post is worth a read:
     
  5. Like
    fireship4 got a reaction from LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This portion of his latest post is worth a read:
     
  6. Thanks
    fireship4 reacted to Calamine Waffles in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Alexey Khlopotov (a.k.a. Gur Khan, the Russian tank commentator) says that his blog has now been blocked in the Russian Federation

    https://gurkhan.blogspot.com/2022/06/gur-khan-attacks.html
  7. Like
    fireship4 reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I've just passed to this page and read THIS. Guys, I though this was just a joke, but now my heart is melted down and I can't reject this gift. Though, I feel myself awkward... and also huge gratitude to all of you and Kinophile personally for idea     
  8. Like
    fireship4 got a reaction from LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    From a bit of searching you mean the book by Alexander P. de Seversky?  Interesting bit of history, it became a Disney animated short (as well as a Buggs Bunny bit called Victory through Hare Power apparently heheh).
    This was the closest thing I could find to the image you mentioned:

    Pg. 237, 'Aerial Interdiction' 1994, Eduard Mark - PDF.
    [EDIT: Can't help but post some other possibilities, though I can't find one that really matches the style in your reply: 
    https://www.sarahsundin.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/AAF-Interdiction-1944-1024x637.jpg
    https://markbielski.com/cms/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Breakout_Normandy_Big_Picture-960x732.jpg]
  9. Like
    fireship4 reacted to Vanir Ausf B in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  10. Thanks
    fireship4 reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Just found this guy, and the detail on this map is off the charts, does anybody have an opinion if it has any bearing on reality? Because my guess is that the Russian commander is not working with a picture this good. Unless he is using this map, too.
  11. Like
    fireship4 got a reaction from Machor in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Just to correct this from Sunday, the artist, Tomas Upskas, is from Lithuania and the scene they are from ("Brothers in Arms", seen below) is or will be going to auction with the proceeds going to help the Ukrainian army, according to this article: https://designyoutrust.com/2022/05/lithuanian-artist-created-a-collectible-series-of-miniature-figurines-of-russian-war-looters/

  12. Like
    fireship4 reacted to kraze in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  13. Upvote
    fireship4 got a reaction from Aragorn2002 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Just to correct this from Sunday, the artist, Tomas Upskas, is from Lithuania and the scene they are from ("Brothers in Arms", seen below) is or will be going to auction with the proceeds going to help the Ukrainian army, according to this article: https://designyoutrust.com/2022/05/lithuanian-artist-created-a-collectible-series-of-miniature-figurines-of-russian-war-looters/

  14. Upvote
    fireship4 got a reaction from Artkin in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Just to correct this from Sunday, the artist, Tomas Upskas, is from Lithuania and the scene they are from ("Brothers in Arms", seen below) is or will be going to auction with the proceeds going to help the Ukrainian army, according to this article: https://designyoutrust.com/2022/05/lithuanian-artist-created-a-collectible-series-of-miniature-figurines-of-russian-war-looters/

  15. Thanks
    fireship4 reacted to The_MonkeyKing in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    indeed.
    Missile type(s) seem to be M30 and/or M31. Meaning the most modern smart ammo US is currently using. The extended range variants of these are left out (for now).
    The DPICM variant is possible but I think highly doubtful because of politics of these weapons.

    some references for details on the systems (only caveat being he is too critical of the Russian comparable systems):
     
  16. Like
    fireship4 got a reaction from Blazing 88's in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The scheme is not new, judging by the fact that it was in-game around February 2015 thanks to @Kieme(ITA):

  17. Thanks
    fireship4 reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Top Russian Military Brass Caught Venting, ‘You’re F*cked, Putin—Motherf*cker!’ (thedailybeast.com)
    cover your ears children, this is very crude talk.
  18. Thanks
    fireship4 reacted to Harmon Rabb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The Japanese company making miniature Russian soldiers can make some miniature tanks based on this image. 
     
  19. Like
    fireship4 got a reaction from Blazing 88's in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This was a few pages ago but I think you mean 'taking the piss':
    To my intended subject, for a change of pace, a funny video has emerged from Ukraine via OSINTTechnical.  How many times can a hat be blown off one man's head by outgoing artillery... let's watch shall we?
    https://nitter.net/Osinttechnical/status/1529952654570422273#m
     
  20. Like
    fireship4 got a reaction from Vacillator in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    You learn something new every day.  Two things today in fact, the second being that Sir MacDonald was no poet: 'The pretty colors of the trees reflect our burning desire...', Sheesh.
    As to your earlier imputation - if you have visited our grey land, you will understand why we went abroad.  And if during your stay you heard a lot of words referring to genetalia then I would suggest it was more down to your presence than any obsession of ours.
  21. Like
    fireship4 got a reaction from LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This was a few pages ago but I think you mean 'taking the piss':
    To my intended subject, for a change of pace, a funny video has emerged from Ukraine via OSINTTechnical.  How many times can a hat be blown off one man's head by outgoing artillery... let's watch shall we?
    https://nitter.net/Osinttechnical/status/1529952654570422273#m
     
  22. Like
    fireship4 got a reaction from Ithikial_AU in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  23. Upvote
    fireship4 got a reaction from Livdoc44 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  24. Like
    fireship4 got a reaction from LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  25. Like
    fireship4 got a reaction from SteelRain in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    So we have writers at home adding nothing to the information they recieve, and reporters on the ground with no useful information in the pieces they send.  The answer seems to be 'journalism'.  You can make plenty out of decently sourced material, and find out a lot from direct access to a country or the right people, if your intention is to inform.
    Confused business sense is obviously a driver behind many problems: 'paper 'x' already provides good analysis, we need to provide something different and eye-catching if we are going to get people switching subscriptions.'  And as always, stupid people.
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