rocketman

looks at pic... starts crying because it has curved roads...

Just to clarify: With my post about the Bucha satellite imagery, I didn't mean to start an entire discussion about various Russian disinformation efforts. I just came across this yesterday, found it easy to debunk, and thought it might prove helpful as a reference for anyone getting into a discussion about this particular Russian narrative.

Yes but is it for this thread? We keep getting distracted by other topics which, while fascinating in themselves, are not really about military developments in the war.
My apologies in advance (I've lived in Canada for too long, pre-emptive self shaming is ingrained!) as I don't want to come across as a dogmatic Thread Guard.
But...I'm personally more curious about Kherson and the developing decisive battle in the East, than proving that RUS propaganda drivel is...yep, Russian propaganda drivel.
We all know this, it's a bit of Singing To The Choir, eh…?

as Astro would say ruh roh!
Putin ally China rejects Russian oil despite steep discounts amid Western sanctions, report says (msn.com)

Fresh news from Izium axis from the serviceman, who fights there
Russian BTG of tank regiment (probably 1st TR) seized heights near Kamyanka. But looks like Ukrainan forces launched operation for cutting supply, which come through Kup'yansk. Reportedly after some UKR actions, Russians abandoned villages Borova and Pisky-Rad'kivs'ki and withdrew to western bank of Oskol river. Though, Ukrainian forces didn't re-take control over these villages, because of Russian can shelled them with artillery. So, this section of P79 road Kup'yansk - Izium now is "grey zone" and both sides can shell it
From the western side Ukr forces after taking of Husarivka still threaten supply lines, coming through Balakiya town.   

Completely OT, completely unrelated, but I thought some humour can´t hurt...
 
 

It is the Jomini of the West profile on twitter :
https://twitter.com/jominiw
Personally, I use "nitter" instead of "twitter", which makes it possible not to need an account, as a forum member previously suggested (thanks to him)
https://nitter.net/JominiW

My question is not as much ”how many tanks do they still have”, but rather ”how many well-trained tank crews worth their salt do they have in reserve”? Probable answer: crap tanks and crap crews.
edit: ninj’ad by Kraft 

My question is not as much ”how many tanks do they still have”, but rather ”how many well-trained tank crews worth their salt do they have in reserve”? Probable answer: crap tanks and crap crews.
edit: ninj’ad by Kraft 

My question is not as much ”how many tanks do they still have”, but rather ”how many well-trained tank crews worth their salt do they have in reserve”? Probable answer: crap tanks and crap crews.
edit: ninj’ad by Kraft 

😳
 

Reportedly whole territory of Sumy, Chernihiv and Zhytomyr oblasts now free from Russians. Ukrainian flags are raising up again over cross points. 
On the photo flag raising over Chernihiv border guard detachment directorate.

 

if you use "woke and PC" you are just another brainwashed tool.  This is just a shiny object meant to ignite culture wars.  We have much bigger problems.  Like in the USA we are considered now a failing democracy.  And it's not because of some "woke & PC" horses-t.  It's because of a very different brand of propaganda.
So how about we all call a truce on this foolishness and get back to Ukraine?  Do we not (nearly) all here have a shared interest in seeing the new Hitler defeated?  What I care about is that the west (and the world) stays united and that Ukraine can emerge 'victorious', although that's an odd word for having a big part of one's country laid to ruin.

This comment...

This is what the PC and Woke Brigade of the West cannot grasp about Russia

...has absolutely nothing to do with Ukrainians being angry about Russian war crimes!

I KNOW exactly what it represents, and it has no place in this thread and that's why I'm calling it for what it is.

That's whether you, or anyone else likes it or not... it is trolling! 

Now I joined this thread after the first week of the war to read others views about the conflict, not to read about this sort of nonsense. Quite frankly, there's nothing that I am going to learn from this sort of socio-political diatribe, but there is a lot that I can learn about the military conflict. But these particular comments have no place here and are irrelevant to the topic. 

Tiresome and boring! Stop trolling!

Actually, I think it is dumb for the British government / government actors (or any other donating nation) to be claiming credit for “their” weapons in individual incidents.  This lets Russia refocus from “we’re fighting Ukrainians” to “we’re fighting NATO,” which is a narrative they sorely need domestically.  STFU about what you are giving Ukraine, when you are giving it, and when and where it is being used.  Response should just be “the Ukrainians are effectively using all their tools at their disposal to defend their nation” and nothing else.  Britain, in particular, perhaps reflecting the narcissistic personality of their PM, seems to have decided this is some sort of international competition that they (or rather Johnson) needs to win.

The events in Ukraine are going to add some more fuel to the fire regarding the highly controversial reorganization of the US Marine Corps. The current commandant has eliminated all tanks, reduced artillery, helicopters and fixed wing assets to focus on guided missiles, drones, long range anti-ship missiles batteries and long-range unmanned surface vessels that has sensors and weapons that allow for pinpoint bombardment. They are also buying unmanned boats loaded with Kamikaze drones.
The reason for the re-org is the likely adversary China is a Pacific oriented theater that involves vast distances and the need for light highly deployable forces. Many of the potential hot spots are small atolls and shoals. Tanks are too cumbersome and heavy to land on these atolls and the risk of losing them to handheld anti-tank weapons is too great is the argument.
Artillery is also limited by the fact many of the tiny islands are so small they can't be used from a safe distance away from enemy fire and may not be able to use indirect fire at close range. While not totally useless its argued that tanks and artillery "are of less value than the things we need the most" and with a limited budget choices have to be made.
   
This has drawn the ire of just about every past commandant and they have been engaging in a PR campaign to slow or stop the re-org and are now lobbying congress. The argument here is the force structure is too tailored for a potential fight with China and would be ineffective elsewhere. There have been arguments that eliminating tanks makes the new force structure vulnerable in a fight with a armored heavy opponent.
The events in Ukraine where light infantry armed with guided missiles are decimating tanks and IFV's, pretty much invalidates the infantry is vulnerable to armored formations even when taking into account the Russians lack of finesse.
The argument that the new force structure would not be useful in a theater like Europe is also looking sketchy. A force structure like the new Marine Corps one would be highly effective in the southern coastal region of Ukraine. Anti-ship missile batteries would make any sort of Russian amphibious invasion or ship resupply of land forces a very risky proposition. Long range unmanned surface vessels with precision guns and guided missiles and drones would also be very effective.
Norway another area the marines currently train in would be another region where the new force structure would be very effective as would Sweden and Finland if it ever came down to it.
I still believe tanks are highly effective when properly used, but they are expensive to acquire, expensive to maintain and they will definitely need APS and more APS systems need to be developed. All of this will require money, lots of it and they are not easily deployable as their weight is already approaching the limits of practicality and adding on more stuff to protect them will only add to the weight problem.
In the past few decades global populations have been trending away from rural areas into urban areas. Over 90% of global commerce moves on the sea, so it follows that urban areas located near the water is where the centers of government and economic power lie.
A light infantry centric force with precision weapons, drones, unmanned surface vessels and anti-ship missiles makes a lot of sense. He may be highly controversial but General Berger is beginning to look very visionary.
 

Brigade general SBU Andriy Naumov, the chief of SBU internal security directorate have lost own post as far as in July 2021 due to corruption scandal and dirty intermal withstanding inside SBU. He left Ukraine on 23th of Feb, one day before war began.
Brigade general SBU, chief of SBU in Kherson oblast, Serhiy Kryvoruchko also left territory of Ukraine before invasion. Reportedly he gave to Russians all defense plans of Kherson oblast, which allowed Russians to seize it so quickly. 
So, for now Zelensky can only dismiss them. Prosecution will be after the war. The irony, both were appointed and later promoted to brigade general ranks personally by Zelenskyi. And looks like he did it by advice of Andriy Yermak, the chief of Persident's Ofiice, which many in our contry consider as Kremlin agent of influence. And after the war his political opponents will remind him on this.
  

Now this is interesting.  I have been wondering if Ukraine was going to stretch out and start hitting outside its own borders.  This one is tricky:
- It is Russian soil and it could create more popular Russian support for the war (i.e. assist Russian Will); however, one has to consider what the real state of Russian Will is and is not.  I do not trust polls conducted in Russia right now on several fundamental levels, so it is hard to really see where the domestic front is at, but this will play into the "hawk" hands as an escalation,
- On the other hand, it is a clear demonstration of Russian weakness and failures.  So if the UAF can strike 25 kms into Russia, where are all the things that are supposed to stop that from happening?  Further, if this operation is "all going according to plan" and Ukraine is barely holding on, this is a strategic demonstration (and a pretty good one - hard to hide a refinery fire).  The Russian immediate counter is to try and claim it was an industrial accident but that is weak tea.
- I doubt this will impact the Russian war machine too much, hitting a military fuel farm or railhead would have done more to do that.  This looks more like a strategic target and a SOF aviation job to be honest, small highly empowered capability right at the seam of operational and strategic.  The target was no doubt "legitimate" in a legal sense but its link back to the invasion force was probably somewhat distant.  This looks more like a legitimate strategic target in that it is part of the architecture of Russian national power.
This one bears watching closely in my opinion.  Actions like these are really signals (war is communication) which further reinforce the idea of posturing that is going on here.  Unless Ukraine is going to begin a SOF Aviation campaign to cripple strategic oil and gas nodes (oh man that would be something to watch), this may be the start of some more military signaling outside of Ukraine itself.   
The fact that Ukraine is even able to achieve information dominance to do this op (e.g. they must know there was a hole in Russian strategic ISR and AD) has got to be driving Russian high-command nuts right now.  Political level is likely losing his mind as well.  Ukraine has to be careful though, this is how WMDs do get justified, another reason I am surprised they went with it.

Plus, UA equipment is steadily improving, not just in availability but tech level.
=====
I'd predict that in a couple of months the majority of UKR combat inf will have proper gun optics and nvg goggles. They will have a huge number of experienced ATGM "snipers". They'll have adapted their tactical best practices. The lower level officers from D1 will be leading Companies, Battalions, Groups.
So with the current contrasting attrition levels, the UKR army is going to get better equipped, better led, better at large unit fighting the more the war continues at this steady pace. UKR will achieve deeper unit-group cohesion, not just at company and battalion but divisional and above. 
Every military reflects its society.@Haiduk's post much, much earlier described the Ukrainian frontier/cossack mentality, a very open, egalitarian and self-motivating from of group-think that is in sharp contrast to the Russian top-down, Pharaonic and self-censoring mindset. 
That contrast seems to be exactly why UKR reformed after 2015 but RUS Army did not. It also didn't help the RA that the top brass essentially got distracted by Syria, where as UKR was able to group-focus on a single objective - defeat the next Russian invasion. The real one.
By contrast, RUS will achieve none of those rapid, nimble adjustments and deep unit cohesion, as it funamentlla cant think that loose and fast as an institution and also they've lost so many of their officer core, especially the combat experienced ones.
Russia will have some units, commanders able to adapt/change but the nature of the  political society behind them has not changed and will constantly and instinctively override/interfere with any push within the military for change/adaptation. The Russian military is a wolf with a scorpion clinging to its neck, stabbing in the poison whenever the wolf tries to go a different direction.
This will be the real tension point within Russia, as only the military has the wherewithal to actual confront and change the political structure. Navalny et al are inevitable but ultimately irrelevant. The Russian Army will decide the next form of Russia, as it's the Army that is being affected most directly by this growing possible defeat. 
 

It fully involved on Donbas, where the war has more "traditional" form. It involved in Sumy oblast and Kharkiv - Russian BTGs in Trostianets and Rohan' were defeated not with lihgt infantry (though with their assist). Our "line troops" too busy to make footage, also a censorship there is more tough than in volunteers/TD and Azov, which since 2014 have made PR for itself. You can see Oryx about our losses, we lost about 70 tanks. So, they in fight. 
Full picture, how our mech. and tank brigades fought, we can receive only after the war.

Well, yeah. Kind of obvious. There's no "likely" about it. If it's radioactive, and you inhale it, you WILL be irradiated from internally ingested radioactive particulates.
Alpha particles, yes, can be stopped by a piece of paper, or, say, your lung tissue. Also an alpha particle is massive - it's a helium nucleus, so causes much more damage than other radiation. There shouldn't be any alpha emitters in the dust/soil around Chernobyl. Beta radiation is an electron, or positron (a + charge electron- antimatter actually). A beta particle also has little penetrating effect. Your skin will stop it.  So for example everyone was horrified at Fukushima workers wading through water that was beta radioactive - but at the levels there it was probably a sunburn effect. Gamma rays are highly energetic electromagnetic radiation - think highly energetic X-rays. They can pass through a lot but they will definitely interact with flesh and the lower energy ones will be more likely to be stopped, depositing all their energy, where a greater percentage of higher energy ones will pass through. But you can't think of it as just passing through without interacting. It WILL interact, but it just won't be slowed much. But every atom it hits it will deposit some energy along the way.
The problem with any radiation when you ingest it is that 1) it irradiates you internally, and the human body internally is very delicate once you get past protective skin 2) isotopes will concentrate in certain areas/organs due to their physical (non-nuclear) similarity to beneficial elements. For an example most are familiar with, in an active release it's Iodine-131 that is the biggest immediate concern. Iodine concentrates in the thyroid. That's why KI pills are issued - to flood the thyroid with good iodine so there are no receptors for I-131. And the half life of I-131 is pretty short, and it would pass by quickly. Biological half life is short too, so KI pills are effective (note they are effective for ONLY that scenario and isotope). And with all that thyroid cancer is among the most treatable and survivable of cancers.
But I digress. Strontium is one concern here. It's a fission product and in all spent fuel - which Chernobyl distributed all over Europe in varying amounts. It is physically/chemically similar to calcium so it will concentrate in bone marrow and bones, which can cause various issues with T-cells and B-cells that fight infections, mutating them and/or killing them. It releases betas and low energy gammas. Guess where else it shows up? Milk. Because, calcium. Cows eat the grass, and pass it into the milk. There are still areas that are restricted to grazing because strontium can be detected.
There is probably little external danger even after stirring up dust, AS LONG AS PROTECTIVE GEAR IS WORN, and after you pass through the gear is removed and decontaminated or disposed of properly. But they didn't do that. So likely they all breathed in fission products. How much, and how much of an effect, is anyone's guess really and probably won't show any effects for years.  I kind of doubt (but don't know for sure) that anyone would have received an acute dose that would make them ill or kill them. There ARE people living in the exclusion zone who moved back or never left, so the levels are not THAT severe. But, in general, don't inhale radioactive particulates.
Dave  

Alpha radiation is bad for this as it isn't very penetrating, unlike gamma rays.
 A gamma ray source is equally dangerous no matter where it is - a certain flux will interact with the entire mass of your body with some degree of probability, and the rest pass through.
Conversely alpha radiation can be stopped by a piece of paper, so if it is external, it is basically not going to get past your clothes and not really cause you a significant problem. But if you breath in dust that is an alpha source, you have the opposite problem - it is now inside you and not getting out, so all the energy from the radioactive particles gets dumped into cell damage inside your body.

Yes, I hear you. But I have to give some credit to people that have been bullied by Russia for almost a century. I was never in their place...But again the only thing I havent read here yet is that russians eat their toothpaste or something, we are heading in that untermenschen, russophobic rhetoric again it seems. We can do better...
The funny thing is out of everyone, germans were the most murderous "species" in the recent history but being a part of our world we never treat them like we would treat Russia. They are respected, are the head of EU etc...We must come to realize fascism is an illness that comes from external factors primarily and not rooted in the genes of people.  

Russia loves to stir up trouble across its borders, so Ukraine should be doing all kinds of thing to stir up trouble in Belarus.  Including taking the Belorussian volunteers and having them conduct partisan attacks on Belorussian soil and blame the Belorussian military for it.  Or just send the volunteers over to start up armed resistance on behalf of Belorussians. Belarus rebelling is not necessary for the Ukrainians to win, but a successful rebellion in Belarus makes this a 100% total loss for Putin. It would be an unspinnable, unfixable, epic disaster. Even an unsuccessful rebellion in Belarus Probably turns every Russian soldier on the west side of Kyiv into a POW. Absolutely anything and everything should be pursued to make this happen.