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Sequoia

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  1. Like
    Sequoia reacted to Ts4EVER in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I don't like this "decadence" narrative, partly because it reminds me of all the pre-WW1 talk of "the cleansing bath of steel" and stuff like that, considering how that turned out. We shouldn't dismiss advances of western civilisation as making us "weaker". If anything, actually embodying these ideals would be a great advantage when it comes to checking the influence of autocracies in the developing world. I mean, how can we expect them to see the light of democracy and freedom if our actions are so often obviously guided by economic self-interest?
    Also, it is easy to talk the big talk if you are not the one who will be sent into the meatgrinder if push comes to shove. Sometimes I wish the boomers would find the same sudden steely resolve in response to inequality and injustice within their own societies, but sadly it seems reserved for external enemies...
  2. Like
    Sequoia reacted to sross112 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Agree.
    I think that direct intervention by any western or European country is the worst thing we could do. Yes, everyone can argue that weapons and aid is direct intervention but I mean by committing our military forces against the RA. As much as I'd like to see a couple ABCTs smash whatever is left of the RA in Ukraine while the RuAF is cleansed from the sky and the RuN is feeding the fishes, it is completely counter productive.
    First off, it actually legitimizes and strengthens Putin. He gets to use the "See, I told you the western Nazis were going to attack us!! Unite for the motherland!!" bull. Attacking a country usually generates a negative opinion of the attacker by the attackee (see Ukraine since 2003 for reference). It will solidify their resolve to resist not make them magically depose of their crappy leader. It just makes the problem bigger and last longer.
    Second, NATO does not have the manpower to conquer and control Russia. Take the area of Ukraine times about 24 and sprinkle in 4 times the population hating our warriors and trying to kill them. It becomes a worse idea than Putin attacking Ukraine. China (the real threat) would love to see every trained soldier and reservist of the entire free world tangled up in an unending conflict in Russia. Pretty much allows them to do whatever they want to whoever they want whenever they want. And yes, they would feed a Russian resistance high tech weaponry as fast as they could, so would Iran and everyone else around the world that hates us and could. 
    The worst part is the faster and more complete we whoop them, the more likely we end the world as we know it. Back Putin into a cave in the Urals and give him nothing to lose and see how long it takes him to push the button. 
    Lastly, like said above, it takes all other options off the table for a settlement. We attack and it is to the death, probably of everybody.
    So Ukraine sadly needs to win this one on their own. We should give them every bit of material that we can. I don't know why we haven't stripped our National Guard bare and sent every bit of kit we can to them to arm up and protect all the reserves they are mustering. What will make this war last longer than it has to is the lack of equipment for the UA and especially it's reserves. 
    By Ukraine fighting this on their own with only material help from the west and winning it they destroy Russia. They destroy the myth of Russia. Russia being beat by a little neighbor not even a third of it's size is going to be really hard to sell to the people, the elite and the army. Best of all, the whole world knows it. Russia becomes a non-entity and the whole world thumbs their nose at them. Most likely their federation would fall apart. If they value strength as much as it seems they do in their mythology, this is the worst thing that can happen to them as a country. 
    It's also the best way to negate Putin. He won't be arrested and tried by the Hague, we all know that. It is unlikely that he will be deposed of right away no matter how bad the RA gets beat. But by handing Russia this big defeat it puts into question everything about Russia and Putin. Now he will be too busy internally to be a problem to anyone externally and in the long run will probably be deposed, but I don't think it will come quickly.
  3. Upvote
    Sequoia reacted to Homo_Ferricus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    You know, emotional decisions are very rarely good ones. There's a problem with the fact that we are inundated with videos that, as humans, we can't help but respond to with visceral emotion. It didn't used to be like this. We used to read about facts, and have time to consider them, and then the odd photo or video that made its way through the editorial process. Nowadays it's all, "Forget ethics, forget the law, forget standards and decency. I just watched a video that made me emotional. Now I'm ok with war crimes." I've felt this myself, and seen it all over this thread. Truly the moment is all that matters, ala George Orwell. I've recently realized that all the "war porn" and videos from the front generally have a very negative effect on my pysche, and my capacity to live well. Now trying to cut down on the emotion, and sort through facts. From there is where the better decisions are made.
    As always my sympathies are with the Ukrainian nation. 
  4. Like
    Sequoia got a reaction from Anonymous_Jonze in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I don't understand how Slavs can become  Neo Nazis given the Nazi view of Slavs as Untermenschen.
  5. Like
    Sequoia got a reaction from CAZmaj in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I don't understand how Slavs can become  Neo Nazis given the Nazi view of Slavs as Untermenschen.
  6. Upvote
    Sequoia got a reaction from Shadrach in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I don't understand how Slavs can become  Neo Nazis given the Nazi view of Slavs as Untermenschen.
  7. Upvote
    Sequoia got a reaction from Bufo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I don't understand how Slavs can become  Neo Nazis given the Nazi view of Slavs as Untermenschen.
  8. Like
    Sequoia reacted to BeondTheGrave in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This is only true about the Communists and Fascists if you choose to ignore literally everything theyve ever said about themselves, their origins and rises to power, and of course what they thought about each other. This kind of thing is like doing history where you get to exclude everything thats inconvenient for your argument. We already have that discipline, its called political science. Seriously though IDK why people try to bend over backwards to excuse the right from the crimes of the people who tried to be apart of its movement. Its like the left is responsible for all the horrors of the world while the right gives out guns, lollipops, and tax vouchers. But saying the Nazis were left wingers flys in the face of not only what they said, but what contemporaries even thought about them. Unless you think Paul von Hindenburg was gunning for a socialist revolution in Germany.
    The left/right spectrum is dumb and meaningless. Attaching meaning to it is the death of all truth. You will tie yourself into pretzels trying to determine whether one group is truly left or truly right. We live in a three dimensional world, our politics are multidimensional and cannot be place on a one dimensional spectrum, horseshoe, or cartesian plane. 
  9. Upvote
    Sequoia reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    the massacre in Bucha has had a lot of knock-on effects that are really bad for Putin including in China.  China isn't quite the monolith we tend to see it as nor is it as confident as an external viewer may think.  China's social dynamic is a bit like Russia's in the sense that there is a social contract more or less that as long as most people see economic improvement, they are willing to accept a lot.  Problem is that contract is shaky with some of the demographics China is facing.
    Chinese Citizens Decry Bucha Killings on Social Media (msn.com)
  10. Like
    Sequoia got a reaction from Commanderski in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Regarding Battlefront possibly doing a game about this. I can already anticipate Steve getting an ulcer coming up with all the Ukrainian TO&E.
     
     
  11. Like
    Sequoia reacted to LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Hmph, well your take is a lot more charitable than mine.  I still loathe that whole Asiatic mongrel (or was it inbreds?) untermenschen line our fellow traveler keeps pushing here. It's a dead end,  poison for the soul.
    My Ukrainian/ Pale Jewish mischlinge inlaws (or their forbears) preferred swarthy Cossack rapists to gas vans and Babi Yar, thanks very much.
  12. Like
    Sequoia reacted to BeondTheGrave in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Have to agree with this. Its easy to fixate on NATO failures, especially Germany's, in managing this crisis. But at the end of the day Ukraine wouldn't have held out without pre-war and wartime support from ISR and more drones to Stingers and ATGMs. Every aspect of the NATO alliance worked well here to manage a crisis and, at least in terms of rhetoric, DID do it for all those flowery reasons like humanity, rights, justice....
    Take the Poland-Jet fiasco. Clearly whatever happened there was a tactical diplomatic defeat for NATO. But pull back a bit, to me it looks a whole lot like NATO members trying to out compete each other to be seen doing more for Ukraine. That may not bring back the broken windows, smashed buildings, and murdered innocents, but it sure as hell has helped flood the country with those sweet sweet British made NLAWs. And I suspect in the aftermath well learn a lot about NATO intelligence cooperation with Ukrainian forces, especially in the North. 
    That this wasn't done unilaterally by the US is also important if you believe that NATO and the global order are worth protecting. This was Europe coming together in a way it hasn't in decades and, at least for a short while (I remain skeptical about long term change) has Europe back to the Post-WWII order. And of course this yet again reaffirms the line in the UN charter about revising national borders through military action.
  13. Upvote
    Sequoia got a reaction from Zatoichi in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Think again.
  14. Upvote
    Sequoia got a reaction from domfluff in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Mikey didn't get a chance to get around to it in time.
  15. Like
    Sequoia got a reaction from Artkin in MASTER TOE (1981) - V Corps   
    Is it possible Fire and Fury made an error and left out the 4th brigade 4th Mech? 
    Does it have 3rd brigade 1st Mech Inf Division for VII corps?
    To elaborate ISS 'The Military Balance' lists USAREUR as having 4 divisions plus three separate brigades, The two Armored Cavalry Regiments, plus th Berlin Brigade.
     
    I believe the breakdown was as such:
     
    Vth Corp
    3rd Arm Div
    8th Mech Inf Div
    4th brigade of the 4th Mech Inf Div
    11th Arm Cav Reg
    It doesn't list the support brigades you have but I know they were there.
    VIIth Corps
    1st Arm Div
    3rd Mech Inf Div
    3rd brigade 1st Mech Inf Div
    2nd Arm cav Reg
    plus the support units.
    Way up north not part of either corps was the 3rd brigade of the 2nd Armored division.
     
     
     
     
  16. Like
    Sequoia got a reaction from Gpig in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Mikey didn't get a chance to get around to it in time.
  17. Like
    Sequoia got a reaction from Baneman in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Mikey didn't get a chance to get around to it in time.
  18. Like
    Sequoia reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Da fu'...!?
    Next thing, you'll be giving them their own parliament and control over budgetary affairs pertinent to Scottish needs! A slippery slope, Sir, a verrrry slippery slope!  
    Wot, wot.
  19. Like
    Sequoia got a reaction from Lethaface in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I thought it might be useful to post what is known as the Rome Statute addition to the Geneva Convention.
     
    Under international humanitarian law and the Rome Statute, the death of civilians during an armed conflict, no matter how grave and regrettable, does not in itself constitute a war crime. International humanitarian law and the Rome Statute permit belligerents to carry out proportionate attacks against military objectives,[25] even when it is known that some civilian deaths or injuries will occur. A crime occurs if there is an intentional attack directed against civilians (principle of distinction) (Article 8(2)(b)(i)) or an attack is launched on a military objective in the knowledge that the incidental civilian injuries would be clearly excessive in relation to the anticipated military advantage (principle of proportionality) (Article 8(2)(b)(iv).
    Article 8(2)(b)(iv) criminalizes intentionally launching an attack in the knowledge that such attack will cause incidental loss of life or injury to civilians or damage to civilian objects or widespread, long-term, and severe damage to the natural environment which would be clearly excessive in relation to the concrete and direct overall military advantage anticipated.
    Article 8(2)(b)(iv) draws on the principles in Article 51(5)(b) of the 1977 Additional Protocol I to the 1949 Geneva Conventions, but restricts the criminal prohibition to cases that are "clearly" excessive. The application of Article 8(2)(b)(iv) requires, inter alia, an assessment of:
  20. Upvote
    Sequoia got a reaction from Vanir Ausf B in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    And though I'm no expert in International relations, but not saying if NATO troops would be sent or not would be a hollow ambiguity.  No one would really expect NATO troops to be sent, so being ambiguous about it and not really ever have the intention of doing it, would make future ambiguities less credible if you follow.
  21. Upvote
    Sequoia reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    No, no, THIS is him.
    Last seen being snarky to a King...
  22. Upvote
    Sequoia got a reaction from Harmon Rabb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Think again.
  23. Thanks
    Sequoia got a reaction from G.I. Joe in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    @G.I. Joe
    Welcome to the forums, but I thought I'd let you know that avatar has been in use by an esteemed forum member and former BFC employee, so you have big shoes to fill. 
     
  24. Like
    Sequoia got a reaction from Lethaface in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Think again.
  25. Like
    Sequoia got a reaction from The Steppenwulf in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Think again.
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