Eddy

Rusi - Russian Tactics in the Second Year of the Invasion of Ukraine
Hot off the press. That's my afternoon sorted.

Ohhhh for the days of Tank Ist Tot debates. 
*peers into the immediate future*
Think I'll give the next two pages a miss...

This sounds the most realistic to me(from possible optimistic scenarios).
We can be pretty sure that there will be a lot of money pumped into Ukraine for rebuilding destroyed infrastructure and then for improving it in general, this is what happened in every country that joined the UE. Given from how a low level of GDP PP Ukraine will be starting and being a part of EU common market, investments and rapid growth would be assured, it is just too good an opportunity to miss. And one thing that can be said looking at Ukrainians here in Poland is that they are hard working people.
Perhaps the greatest long-term issue for UA is demography. Between low birth rate, war losses, and several millions refugees who might not want to go back the country will be hard pressed to keep growing economically. As you mention though, their chance might be immigration from Russia - there are tens of millions of people there who are (or can claim to be) of Ukrainian descent. If RU turns into a failed state that Putin is leading it to become, perhaps it might work somehow? Learn the language, get rid of RU passport and repatriate to a country (of your ancestors) that gives some perspectives?
 
Edit:
Here's a stream from PISM Strategic Arc 2023 conference hosted by Polish Institute of International Affairs. It is completely in English, and included Q&A session with Polish Chief of General Staff gen. Andrzejczak and SACEUR gen. Cavoli (they even mentioned relation of mass and precision ;P). Surely beats TV if you need some background noise.
 

They are not comparable. On paper Aegis is supposed to have far better performance. See the pic below. Patriot PAC3 is a terminal phase interceptor with very short window of opportunity to intercept SRBM and MRBM (see the blue dots there?), Patriot's speed is too low to work on an IRBM.

 
The yellow Aegis BMD line in the graphic seems to be representing RIM-161 SM3,  an Exo-atmospheric interceptor.
As you can see , the right end of the yellow line does not extend to the x-axis, because SM3 doesn’t work in Endo-atmospheric. That makes this graphic a little misleading as the SM2 and SM6, two Endo-atmospheric interceptors deal with terminal phase interception also belong to Aegis BMD. They have better performance compared to Patriot PAC3, although they will have trouble to deal with IRBM.
 
Put hypersonic weapon hypothesis, Kh-47 kinzhal is just an air launched Iskander SRBM with a limited maneuverability MaRV . It’s flight profile might be very similar to DF-21D and YJ-21 ASBM, but I guess DF-21D is the hardest to be intercepted due to its terminal speed. There is no way for Patriot PAC3 to intercept a DF-26B, an IRBM with anti-ship roles. That’s when you need SM3 to intercept before the RV from the IRBM dive into the terminal phase.
 
So far there is no indication that the HGV from DF-17 has the anti-ship capability. But due to the HGV’s flight profile, it will make the detection very very hard, and it is also operating on upper edge of the atmosphere so SM3 is useless in the face of this threat. Also due to its flight profile, HGV won’t have a great potential energy to convert into speed at terminal phase, so THAAD and SM6 should be able to intercept that but it is still too fast and maneuver for Patriot PAC3. We don’t have any open source to study on this, this is just my guess
 
Anyway, the key to successfully intercept a ballistic missile is not about the interceptor missile’s performance, its more about early warning, detection and classification.  There are some discussions on this topic in Matrix game forum CMO section, I can see if I can find the discussion.

Telegraph's article sheds a bit of light on the "attack drones" pledged by the UK:
- these will be of "kamikaze" type
- with range longer than 125 miles
- effect on target similar to an artillery shell
- are specially designed and produced for use by Ukraine
- available by the hundreds and delivered in upcoming months
It basically adds up to a kind of a poor man's cruise missile of sorts. There was no information about the propulsion system, I'd love to see them go with pulse-jet, looks like a perfect application for it.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/05/15/britain-send-ukraine-suicide-drones-twice-the-range-himars/

Surely this would mean it's not representative, as he's only selected young people on social media who support the war enough to post about it? Or am I missing the point?
Either way, interesting read.

Worth a read as it links into the previous points on "traditional mass" and deployment of such and the problems they will likely encounter in the future given what has been seen in Ukraine
https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/English-Edition-Archives/May-June-2023/Graveyard-of-Command-Posts/
P

Spotted on the CBC this morning: https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-putin-fascism-youth-1.6842657
The article also includes comments from people who have an opposing view of the situation. Interesting read.

Things are becoming hotter and hotter. I'm still struggling with time. But hopefully, it will improve shortly.
I believe you have seen the recent Prig video with the map. Based on what Prig stated, I decided to add a few notes to the map. Although it is Prig, it is really interesting, and I believe it will help you understand what is going on in the Bakhmut area.
It can be a little confusing and crammed at times, but if you examine each block carefully, it should be straightforward enough.
Number 1

Number 2

Number 3

Number 4

I have a few comments but due to lack of time I will post them later.

Put like that my money's on b. Russian AD is one of the few things that seems to have got better. If it was one aircraft shot down, maybe, but not four, with two being slow moving helicopters.
Maybe the Ukrainians have got better capabilities, maybe the Russians got sloppy. Who knows
But it doesn't really matter what I think. What matters is what the Russian's know. If it was there own AD, then lessons learned. If it was Ukrainian something or other, then they'll have to change their behaviour.
The one thing I can say with absolute certainty - it wasn't me!

21:55 Melitopol. Powerful explosion. After this electricity is gone in the whole city.
 

Interesting RUSI article on the TDF in the early(ish) days. Think its from a guest writer. 
Ukraine’s Territorial Defence Forces: The War So Far and Future Prospects | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
What stuck me was when the Russian's shifted to artillery intensive offensives, the poor sods where armed with mgs and ags and basically couldn't fight back. Now wonder some of them struggled.

Interesting RUSI article on the TDF in the early(ish) days. Think its from a guest writer. 
Ukraine’s Territorial Defence Forces: The War So Far and Future Prospects | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
What stuck me was when the Russian's shifted to artillery intensive offensives, the poor sods where armed with mgs and ags and basically couldn't fight back. Now wonder some of them struggled.

Some notes from post-apocalyptic living conditions of Russian mobiks near Avdiivka. Sound much like WW I or Cassino.
 

He blames units of 72nd motor-rifle brigade of 3rd Army Corps that they abandoned positions. Likely this was in Sako i Vancetti village area, about 14 km north from Bakhmut, where presumably UKR troops had advance 1-2 days ago,  

At long last a comment from publicity shy Prigozhin!

Or the world's worst soap opera.
I find it astonishing that he is allowed to get away with these security breaches - shell shortages, units abandoning their positions etc - this is all valuable info for the Ukrainians. Surely even his elite backers would be telling him to shut up.
It's almost like to those in power that the palace politics is what's important and the war is some minor distraction. 

Interesting thread on a report from independent Russian media on Russia's failing attempt to increase tank production
To paraphrase:
Can't get the workers as wages are not attracting people Falsely advertising wages so new workers leave after a month once they see the actual take home pay 'Voluntary-compulsory contributions' reduce worker's take home pay even more Lack of space is a constraint. Two new plants were promised but not built for example Difficult to get electronic components - normally 90% are imported Admittedly this evidence is from talking to workers at the various plants and not hard numbers but it does point to talk from Medvedev about 1500 annual tank production being complete and utter bollocks.  
The low wages is just weird. I would have thought with the war going as it is the Russian govt would be absolutely chucking money at anyone who can make any sort of tank. And the company would be absolutely chucking money at anyone who can even spell 'welding' to attract them. So either the govt. have big financial issues, don't think things are going that badly so why pay over the odds or the company's management are fleecing the workers. Whichever it is, long may it continue.
And the 'voluntary-compulsory contribution' - that's a theft in all but name. 
 
 

Interesting thread on a report from independent Russian media on Russia's failing attempt to increase tank production
To paraphrase:
Can't get the workers as wages are not attracting people Falsely advertising wages so new workers leave after a month once they see the actual take home pay 'Voluntary-compulsory contributions' reduce worker's take home pay even more Lack of space is a constraint. Two new plants were promised but not built for example Difficult to get electronic components - normally 90% are imported Admittedly this evidence is from talking to workers at the various plants and not hard numbers but it does point to talk from Medvedev about 1500 annual tank production being complete and utter bollocks.  
The low wages is just weird. I would have thought with the war going as it is the Russian govt would be absolutely chucking money at anyone who can make any sort of tank. And the company would be absolutely chucking money at anyone who can even spell 'welding' to attract them. So either the govt. have big financial issues, don't think things are going that badly so why pay over the odds or the company's management are fleecing the workers. Whichever it is, long may it continue.
And the 'voluntary-compulsory contribution' - that's a theft in all but name. 
 
 

Interesting thread on a report from independent Russian media on Russia's failing attempt to increase tank production
To paraphrase:
Can't get the workers as wages are not attracting people Falsely advertising wages so new workers leave after a month once they see the actual take home pay 'Voluntary-compulsory contributions' reduce worker's take home pay even more Lack of space is a constraint. Two new plants were promised but not built for example Difficult to get electronic components - normally 90% are imported Admittedly this evidence is from talking to workers at the various plants and not hard numbers but it does point to talk from Medvedev about 1500 annual tank production being complete and utter bollocks.  
The low wages is just weird. I would have thought with the war going as it is the Russian govt would be absolutely chucking money at anyone who can make any sort of tank. And the company would be absolutely chucking money at anyone who can even spell 'welding' to attract them. So either the govt. have big financial issues, don't think things are going that badly so why pay over the odds or the company's management are fleecing the workers. Whichever it is, long may it continue.
And the 'voluntary-compulsory contribution' - that's a theft in all but name. 
 
 

Interesting thread on a report from independent Russian media on Russia's failing attempt to increase tank production
To paraphrase:
Can't get the workers as wages are not attracting people Falsely advertising wages so new workers leave after a month once they see the actual take home pay 'Voluntary-compulsory contributions' reduce worker's take home pay even more Lack of space is a constraint. Two new plants were promised but not built for example Difficult to get electronic components - normally 90% are imported Admittedly this evidence is from talking to workers at the various plants and not hard numbers but it does point to talk from Medvedev about 1500 annual tank production being complete and utter bollocks.  
The low wages is just weird. I would have thought with the war going as it is the Russian govt would be absolutely chucking money at anyone who can make any sort of tank. And the company would be absolutely chucking money at anyone who can even spell 'welding' to attract them. So either the govt. have big financial issues, don't think things are going that badly so why pay over the odds or the company's management are fleecing the workers. Whichever it is, long may it continue.
And the 'voluntary-compulsory contribution' - that's a theft in all but name. 
 
 

There are parallels with how Hitler waited FOREVER to put Germany's economy on a true war footing. Not saying it would have been transformative if he had don it sooner. But the war certainly ended a few months sooner because he he waited so long.

Interesting thread on a report from independent Russian media on Russia's failing attempt to increase tank production
To paraphrase:
Can't get the workers as wages are not attracting people Falsely advertising wages so new workers leave after a month once they see the actual take home pay 'Voluntary-compulsory contributions' reduce worker's take home pay even more Lack of space is a constraint. Two new plants were promised but not built for example Difficult to get electronic components - normally 90% are imported Admittedly this evidence is from talking to workers at the various plants and not hard numbers but it does point to talk from Medvedev about 1500 annual tank production being complete and utter bollocks.  
The low wages is just weird. I would have thought with the war going as it is the Russian govt would be absolutely chucking money at anyone who can make any sort of tank. And the company would be absolutely chucking money at anyone who can even spell 'welding' to attract them. So either the govt. have big financial issues, don't think things are going that badly so why pay over the odds or the company's management are fleecing the workers. Whichever it is, long may it continue.
And the 'voluntary-compulsory contribution' - that's a theft in all but name. 
 
 

Just in time for the discussion over the past page or so, today's ISW post goes into detail on what RU units are committed in Ukraine, where they are located and the what shape they're in.
TLDR is they're not in great shape after months of relatively fruitless local actions and are going to have a hard time defending against a large mechanized offensive.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-23-2023

oh great, we've all been wondering about an escalation with Russia and meanwhile Ukraine goes and starts a fight with our galactic overlords!  👽