Rokossovski

When combined with the reports of progress in cease-fire talks, the Russian moves to menace Odessa from the sea and the reports of multiple Ukrainian counter-offensives suggest the possibility that the timing of some of these actions may be driven by a desire for immediate leverage in the talks rather than being the product of purely military calculations.
In particular, the timing of Ukrainian counter-offensives could be especially important in this struggle -- I hope that they are well-timed rather than being initiated prematurely as a result of political calculations.

Trostyanets is in Sumy oblast. NE.
Probably made an error with coords when putting that bomb symbol onto the map

I have decided to quit my job in order to devote myself full-time to reading this thread.

I have decided to quit my job in order to devote myself full-time to reading this thread.

I have decided to quit my job in order to devote myself full-time to reading this thread.

I have decided to quit my job in order to devote myself full-time to reading this thread.

I have decided to quit my job in order to devote myself full-time to reading this thread.

I have decided to quit my job in order to devote myself full-time to reading this thread.

I have decided to quit my job in order to devote myself full-time to reading this thread.

I have decided to quit my job in order to devote myself full-time to reading this thread.

I have decided to quit my job in order to devote myself full-time to reading this thread.

I have decided to quit my job in order to devote myself full-time to reading this thread.

I have decided to quit my job in order to devote myself full-time to reading this thread.

I have decided to quit my job in order to devote myself full-time to reading this thread.

Some more thoughts on logistical matters and the state of affairs for Iwan
 
 

Wish to further discuss deconfliction. There's more to deconfliction than merely not shooting down friendlies with AD resources. For example, it's necessary to deconflict support fires from tube artillery, mortars and rockets from all friendly aircraft, whether fixed wing or rotary. It's necessary to deconflict fighters from SAMs, too, or AA as appropriate. This is important not just because of potential amicide, but because of combat effectiveness optimization and avoiding the multiple costs of overtargeting or, worse, targets not engaged because of target assignment confusion. Have worked some of these problems myself professionally, and they can become real head busters quickly, because it's not as simple as simply drawing a zone on the ma. Effective deconfliction is multidimensional in time, space and altitude.

You don't want your airstrike coming in when friendly artillery is firing. Before and after? Wonderful, but not during! You need your FAC or drone not to be in the flight path of inbound shells. And not in the flight path might simply be flying well above the max ordinate of the shells being fired. But even this doesn't properly describe the complexity of deconfliction, because  effective deconfliction is crucially dependent on great real-time comms, clearly defined orders and a keen understanding of who's where doing what. And if you think this is bad now, wait and see what happens when you have long range SAMs and AAMs in the mix and also working across national boundaries, language issues, procedural differences, IFF system differences, terminology confusion, equipment compatibility issues (or even no connectivity in some cases), reliability, enemy action and more. Despite everything I've listed, I guarantee I missed a bunch of topics.

Regards,

John Kettler

Except for the part where they returned to the same firing position for shot 2. The fact that they could, and not suffer the consequences speaks volumes for the utter failure of RUS armor/inf coordination and integration.
If I did that in CMBS, pffft, fuggeddaboutit.

This; when I saw the RPG gunner heading back to the same spot I was mentally shouting, 'noooo, he will  have rotated his turret, he will see you easily.'  CMBS would appear to be a harder teacher than the  Marshal Rodion Malinovsky Military Armored Forces Academy.

Unfortunately, I have to say that some one actually reading the text in question surprises me. When I worked for the U.S. Government, I used to write rules and regulations that had to be published in the “Federal Register.” That meant they had to pass constitutional muster, ac conversely, we had to be pretty familiar with the U.S. Constitution. What stuns me is all the people who state, “this, that, and that other thing violates my constitutional rights!” The most surprising were the Politicians, media, and talking heads out of Hollywood. You’d think that before they opened their mouths, they’d actually READ the Constitution, and not just the Preamble. My 73-year old Sister is taking an online class on the Constitution (I guess our arguments regarding certain “rights” as actually being in text in the  Constitution, and some that actually aren’t, actually triggered her to want to understand it, and we both went through school when Civics were part of the curriculum. If you don’t know what Civics Classes were, you are probably younger than 60.
Any how everyone, make sure you’ve actually read the pertinent documents before making comments that can embarrass you.
 

I agree.  I think Ukraine joining the EU or NATO is also not going to proceed all that quickly either.  The point is more that Putin has managed to make alliance with the west an even more enticing move than previously.  A lot of folks (myself included) figured after 1991 that the threat from Russia was not much of a threat anymore.  Even the war already committed on Ukraine seemed a more limited scope and not really requiring a force agreement on the size of NATO.  Putin flushed that all down the toilet.  Peace with Russia seems to require a big f'n stick.  Those countries not formally in NATO need to develop more extensive treaties and arms programs so that further Russia thoughts of military action invoke a reminder of the pain that can be brought to bear.  It also becomes a message to China.  Enough of this sh1t. 
This also means we need to start addressing this move towards authoritarian leaders.  The EU need to seriously address the issue of Orban in Hungary for example.  What exactly does the EU stand for?  
When this war is finally done, the west should invest heavily in rebuilding Ukraine.  F'n Russia can go begging at China's door until we see a fundamental change in perspective.

Yo, let's not punch a man who sounds like out-suffered nearly all of us when it comes to war, pariticularly wars built on lies
 

It is very hard to argue with this, under the circumstances. The *Russian people* are ultimately responsible for stopping this unconscionable aggressive war that their leaders have unleashed. If they do not, it is they who will bear the terrible consequences of failure.
[Sigh, I've bit my tongue on this one for a while now. Feel free to kick me out for a bit, @BFCElvis]
....That being said, I feel I must say that, like many others here, I am tired of you using your country's righteous anger as a cloak for beating the drums of anti-Russian bigotry on this board, which you have doing now, for page upon page:
- that Russians as a people are an ignorant easily gulled mob of Mongolized barbarians or bandits, deeply alien, with no indigenous culture
- that they 'live and breathe war', and that their neighbours have received nothing from them for centuries but invasion and rapine.
- Ergo, nothing but violence and treachery can be expected of such people, now and forever.
These are ancient slanders, and within living memory they carry the vile stench of Hilfswillige and gas vans.
(as noted, I have dear personal relationships who are all too familiar with where this kind of thinking leads)
...To take it further, I am a honestly a little suspicious you are presetting the table for the vengeful 'cleansing' of millions of ethnic Russians out of Ukraine once this invasion collapses and is repelled, as it will be.
I have never credited the 'neo Nazi / Banderist / Azov SS' agitprop pushed by Putin et al., nor its '2 headed coin' dog whistle, but it is surely true no side has a monopoly on bigotry, and I regret you are showing it here now.
Your anger towards Russians now is quite understandable, and I hope you are doing your bit for the defence -- but know that such binary Us/Them thinking ultimately undermines and retards the Ukrainian nation, condemning it to remain an 'Okrajina', disputed borderlands. Bloodlands.
Feel free to refute any of the above!
...Finally, in this time of crisis, I suppose the ultimate proof (or refutation) must be: how many ethnic Russian boys and Russian speakers are out there right now, fighting and dying for the blue and gold?
Slava Ukraine!  But keep your wits, remain civilised, and don't lose the peace!

OK, I’ve read just about enough of this that I can stand without commenting. While I completely understand why you feel this way, and not being one of the “boots on the ground” in Ukraine or Russia, have no place to exalt or vilify your comments. This attitude is is a prime example of the vindictiveness that led the “Victors” of WWI to level such severe reparations and conditions on Germany that it caused WWII. 
 Please try to tone it down a bit, or unfortunately, I’ll have to put you on ignore, because I don’t believe in “Stirring the S*#t.” It really is nothing except extreme prejudice of the Russian people, and no peoples anywhere deserve that attitude.

Man that hurts,,,,

Well. The true major hit the economy will take is from the frozen assets of the Central Bank. I found the following explanation very helpful to understand the whole sanctioning:
"Russia currently holds about $640 billion in reserves. About 32% held in euros, 22% in gold, 16% in dollars, and 13% in Yuan. Most of that gold is held domestically and beyond the reach of sanctions. But about $300 billion in reserves are held abroad. Freezing those will prevent the Bank of Russia from using them for things like currency interventions or transfers to the Russian Treasury to spend. We're already seeing the ruble fall to its lowest levels ever as holders of rubles rush to exchange them for other currencies they think are safer stores of wealth. This is typical in crises - people trust dollars more than rubles to hold value.
Currencies are bought and sold on international foreign exchange markets. Like any traded good, their price (or exchange rate) is a function of supply and demand. Demand for the ruble is plummeting: people are selling them in exchange for dollars/euros. This means that the market is being flooded with rubles that nobody really wants, so supply is increasing. Falling demand and rising supply means the "price" of the ruble is dropping, or weakening.
A crashing ruble is bad for consumers: they get fewer imported goods for their rubles AND fewer domestic goods (reduced purchasing power). Put another way, it takes more rubles to buy the same stuff as before. That's called inflation, and it can get quite severe. high inflation is generally bad for economic growth, and hyperinflation is historically associated with severe recession/depression. That's bad for ordinary folks and, say, governments who are waging costly wars with their neighbors.
This is why central banks often intervene in currency markets to stabilize their currency: spend your reserves (dollars, euros, gold, etc) and buy up rubles to reduce the supply and prop up the exchange rate. But what happens when you burn through your reserves? You can't support your exchange rate by buying up excess rubles, and the currency crashes. That's what we saw in Russia in 1998, and that's what precipitated a major economic meltdown.
What happens if you have reserves but you can't access most of them for currency interventions? Or you're not allowed to exchange your dollars and euros for rubles? That's what sanctioning the Bank of Russia could do, and it would have the same effect: unchecked freefall. Rubles could (in theory) become close to worthless, with ordinary citizens conducting exchange in dollars. That would have to be on the black market, since it's technically illegal to pay for things with dollars/euros directly. Dollars will be scarce & precious on the street.
But many Russians will probably continue to get paid in rubles, which won't be worth much for basic necessities. Remember those pictures from Weimar Germany of folks with carts full of worthless cash? It wouldn't look like that today, but the effect could be the same."