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OBJ

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  1. Like
    OBJ reacted to Seedorf81 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It seems to me that most people forget how humanly normal it is for the Ukrainians to be war-weary and somber, and to even question a positive outcome. But it is almost certainly TEMPORARY!
    It is not only the longevity of the war, and the corresponding fear and stress that goes along with it, that creates this grim atmosphere. In my experience hope that doesn't get materialized tends to weigh heavier on most people's morale, than physical pain, fear, disappointment and other adversities.
    And in this war the average hope before the summer offensive was very high, perhaps - in retrospect of course, unrealisticly high. The unexpected defeat of the Russian invasion, the sinking of the Moskva and the further humiliation of the Black Sea Fleet, the Wagner-uprising, the endless amount of video's and reports of exploding Russian vehicles and dead and dying Russian soldiers, and the large number of countries that gave material and/or financial support (Which in hindsight gave a false impression of the usefull amount of support. Ten countries donating 10 -20 tanks each sounds nice, but creates unrealistic hope.), all contributed to an understandable belief in succes.
    In my opinion a sudden realisation that thing aren't nearly as rosy as expected, weighs people down. Mostly because rational thinking cannot cope very well with accepting the fact that our expectations were too high.
    It just takes time. Whether the situation on the frontline stays as it is, or even when there are going to be more setbacks for the Ukrainians, this current "depression" will subside. The Ukrainian tenacity and unwielding fighting spirit just have a little understandable setback.
    And to parafrase Schwarzenegger's famous quote: "They will be back".   
  2. Upvote
    OBJ got a reaction from Lethaface in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Would that be standing looking down drain or up?
  3. Like
    OBJ got a reaction from Lieutenant Ash in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Would that be standing looking down drain or up?
  4. Like
    OBJ got a reaction from cyrano01 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Would that be standing looking down drain or up?
  5. Upvote
    OBJ got a reaction from Livdoc44 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Apologies if a repeat, did not find a duplicate reference, so...2021 JFQ paper on defense again becoming dominant in warfare, all domain and inter-domain discourse to include space, cyber and EM, global economic and military implications, multi-domain warfighting, the difficulty of synchronizing cross domain attacks, acknowledgement no one really knows what new technologies are capable of until they are employed, implications for the US/west success in resisting Chinese and Russian armed aggression.
    Also this, in the EM discussion, which was new to me, possibly not to others here, 'At the tactical level, the United States has demonstrated a drone that can create an EMP directed at specific targets.'
    The paper reinforces the opinion expressed here the world is seeing the emergence of defense as the current dominant form of warfare.
    chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/jfq/jfq-103/jfq-103_10-17_Hammes.pdf?ver=OMgkzdhCeQLSxaHs_SvOdw%3D%3D
    Defense becomes dominant again JFQ 103 Q4 2021.pdf
  6. Like
    OBJ got a reaction from poesel in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Would that be standing looking down drain or up?
  7. Like
    OBJ got a reaction from danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Thanks @NamEndedAllen
    I added both Nagata and FX Holden's as authors for me check out. 
    So many books, so many CM scenarios, so little time.
  8. Like
    OBJ got a reaction from LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Hey, LLF, I was able to get to the threads through the link you sent, but not what I suppose are images.
    Andrew Perpetua thoughts on infantry Co/Bn mortars interesting and seem pretty supportable given cost and ability to logistically support alternatives.
    No idea if Musk is mucking around again.
  9. Like
    OBJ got a reaction from Monty's Mighty Moustache in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Would that be standing looking down drain or up?
  10. Like
    OBJ reacted to NamEndedAllen in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I found Linda Nagata’s work exploring the emerging tech transformations of war to be extremely prescient. For instance, from 2017’s “The Last Good Man”:Army veteran True Brighton left the service when the development of robotic helicopters made her training as a pilot obsolete. Now she works at Requisite Operations, a private military company established by friend and former Special Ops soldier Lincoln Han. ReqOp has embraced the new technologies. Robotics, big data, and artificial intelligence are all tools used to augment the skills of veteran warfighters-for-hire. But the tragedy of war is still measured in human casualties

    Developments we discuss here seem to simply be gradual cherrypicking her work. Example, excerpt of a review: “Here's a quote from this well written book: "An Agressive, diverse swarm (of weaponized drones) is more dangerous than any traditional soldier, and easy to print up (using 3D printers). True (the protagonist) used to pilot helicopters but most are robotic now. AIs fly warpanes, guide missiles, control satelliees. They analyze incoming intelligence faster than any human could process it. Artificial intelligence and robitics make it possible for a small outfit to operate with formidable force, invade unprotected territory, engage in raids and bombings and dogfights above peaceful cities. To act with the authority of a soverign nation." https://www.amazon.com/Last-Good-Man-Linda-Nagata/dp/1937197220/ref=zg-te-pba_d_sccl_3_4/146-3318248-9316006?pd_rd_w=V2WzF&content-id=amzn1.sym.081392b0-c07f-4fc2-8965-84d15d431f0d&pf_rd_p=081392b0-c07f-4fc2-8965-84d15d431f0d&pf_rd_r=JFK98CW5ASGVVJQVT5QZ&pd_rd_wg=u0RxV&pd_rd_r=d1981c85-2a29-49dd-b9f8-88b9641a6396&pd_rd_i=1937197220&psc=1
    Of course there are many near future mil SF writers ploughing these fields, in advance of today’s war(s). FXHolden comes to mind, for one. But this has long been one of the fundamental values of science fiction: Prepping the mind with a multitude of extrapolated scenarios so much so that one is rarely surprised by contemporary developments. Unfortunately, a common emotion has been frustration over policymaking that rarely seems nearly as well thought-out or timely as these fictions suggest is necessary.
  11. Like
    OBJ reacted to TheVulture in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    If it's spinning upwards, that's bad.
  12. Like
    OBJ got a reaction from LuckyDog in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Would that be standing looking down drain or up?
  13. Like
    OBJ reacted to Tux in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Whether the analogy stands up has, of course, yet to be seen.  There is every possibility that it doesn’t and that there is a dimension to all of this which makes it wholly new.  However anti-drone systems, doctrine, etc are clearly the missing piece at the moment and so the first order effort has to go towards implementing such ASAP, in my opinion.  The sooner it is tried and being tested, the sooner we can begin to try and work out the whole puzzle, whether analogies to aircraft or tanks turn out to have been helpful or not.
  14. Like
    OBJ got a reaction from poesel in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Thanks Steve,
    The Bobiverse series just landed on my Christmas list
  15. Upvote
    OBJ got a reaction from Lethaface in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Thank you Dan, you're probably much more up on this than I am. My naval interests are relatively new. For those like me with new naval interests the little I know is there's two current 'big ideas' in USN circles with respect to full scale conventional war with China over Taiwan:
    1. Air-Sea Battle, Air Force long range strategic bombers takes out Chinese A2/AD capability to allow the carriers to operate within the 1st island chain and range of their strike aircraft
    chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://dod.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/ASB-ConceptImplementation-Summary-May-2013.pdf
    Dated 2013 but a primer on the strategy
    https://breakingdefense.com/2023/01/back-to-the-future-resurrecting-air-sea-battle-in-the-pacific/
    Suspect given the source, but with bias filters on still nice brief summary
    2. Submarines are the only platform capable of effectively engaging a cross strait invasion force in the time window needed to defeat the invasion before/as it lands, there aren't enough submarines, many of the submarines we have need to be reconfigured to launch cruise missiles not ICBMs, and US submarine doctrine needs to be turned on it's head (in the shallow waters of the South China Sea make and use noise, don't try to be silent)
    chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://s3.amazonaws.com/media.hudson.org/Fighting+into+the+Bastions+Bryan+Clark+Timothy+A+Walton.pdf
     
  16. Upvote
    OBJ got a reaction from Lethaface in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Really appreciate the thoughts on this by @chrisl and all others after.
    I just started looking but haven't found anything that looks like force structure or doctrine for massed use of drones. Maybe not surprisingly there does not yet seem to be a 'FM 7-7X, the Drone Platoon in the Attack.'
    The impression you get is field practice in Ukraine is way ahead of published military thought. Maybe someone here knows the Ukrainian or Russian drone equivalent of JFC Fuller or Immelmann/Boelcke.
    I might differ with others on AI. I think the integration of autonomous AI into conventional war kill chains in recon/strike complexes is inevitable given the advantages in response/decision cycle time.
    I did find this interesting, thoughts on drone 'swarm tactics.' Author is an Italian Air Force Lieutenant attending USMC U.
    https://www.usmcu.edu/Outreach/Marine-Corps-University-Press/Expeditions-with-MCUP-digital-journal/A-New-Way-of-War/
     
  17. Upvote
    OBJ got a reaction from chrisl in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Really appreciate the thoughts on this by @chrisl and all others after.
    I just started looking but haven't found anything that looks like force structure or doctrine for massed use of drones. Maybe not surprisingly there does not yet seem to be a 'FM 7-7X, the Drone Platoon in the Attack.'
    The impression you get is field practice in Ukraine is way ahead of published military thought. Maybe someone here knows the Ukrainian or Russian drone equivalent of JFC Fuller or Immelmann/Boelcke.
    I might differ with others on AI. I think the integration of autonomous AI into conventional war kill chains in recon/strike complexes is inevitable given the advantages in response/decision cycle time.
    I did find this interesting, thoughts on drone 'swarm tactics.' Author is an Italian Air Force Lieutenant attending USMC U.
    https://www.usmcu.edu/Outreach/Marine-Corps-University-Press/Expeditions-with-MCUP-digital-journal/A-New-Way-of-War/
     
  18. Upvote
    OBJ got a reaction from Mindestens in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Apologies if a repeat, did not find a duplicate reference, so...2021 JFQ paper on defense again becoming dominant in warfare, all domain and inter-domain discourse to include space, cyber and EM, global economic and military implications, multi-domain warfighting, the difficulty of synchronizing cross domain attacks, acknowledgement no one really knows what new technologies are capable of until they are employed, implications for the US/west success in resisting Chinese and Russian armed aggression.
    Also this, in the EM discussion, which was new to me, possibly not to others here, 'At the tactical level, the United States has demonstrated a drone that can create an EMP directed at specific targets.'
    The paper reinforces the opinion expressed here the world is seeing the emergence of defense as the current dominant form of warfare.
    chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/jfq/jfq-103/jfq-103_10-17_Hammes.pdf?ver=OMgkzdhCeQLSxaHs_SvOdw%3D%3D
    Defense becomes dominant again JFQ 103 Q4 2021.pdf
  19. Upvote
    OBJ got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Apologies if a repeat, did not find a duplicate reference, so...2021 JFQ paper on defense again becoming dominant in warfare, all domain and inter-domain discourse to include space, cyber and EM, global economic and military implications, multi-domain warfighting, the difficulty of synchronizing cross domain attacks, acknowledgement no one really knows what new technologies are capable of until they are employed, implications for the US/west success in resisting Chinese and Russian armed aggression.
    Also this, in the EM discussion, which was new to me, possibly not to others here, 'At the tactical level, the United States has demonstrated a drone that can create an EMP directed at specific targets.'
    The paper reinforces the opinion expressed here the world is seeing the emergence of defense as the current dominant form of warfare.
    chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/jfq/jfq-103/jfq-103_10-17_Hammes.pdf?ver=OMgkzdhCeQLSxaHs_SvOdw%3D%3D
    Defense becomes dominant again JFQ 103 Q4 2021.pdf
  20. Like
    OBJ got a reaction from JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Apologies if a repeat, did not find a duplicate reference, so...2021 JFQ paper on defense again becoming dominant in warfare, all domain and inter-domain discourse to include space, cyber and EM, global economic and military implications, multi-domain warfighting, the difficulty of synchronizing cross domain attacks, acknowledgement no one really knows what new technologies are capable of until they are employed, implications for the US/west success in resisting Chinese and Russian armed aggression.
    Also this, in the EM discussion, which was new to me, possibly not to others here, 'At the tactical level, the United States has demonstrated a drone that can create an EMP directed at specific targets.'
    The paper reinforces the opinion expressed here the world is seeing the emergence of defense as the current dominant form of warfare.
    chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/jfq/jfq-103/jfq-103_10-17_Hammes.pdf?ver=OMgkzdhCeQLSxaHs_SvOdw%3D%3D
    Defense becomes dominant again JFQ 103 Q4 2021.pdf
  21. Upvote
    OBJ got a reaction from hcrof in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Apologies if a repeat, did not find a duplicate reference, so...2021 JFQ paper on defense again becoming dominant in warfare, all domain and inter-domain discourse to include space, cyber and EM, global economic and military implications, multi-domain warfighting, the difficulty of synchronizing cross domain attacks, acknowledgement no one really knows what new technologies are capable of until they are employed, implications for the US/west success in resisting Chinese and Russian armed aggression.
    Also this, in the EM discussion, which was new to me, possibly not to others here, 'At the tactical level, the United States has demonstrated a drone that can create an EMP directed at specific targets.'
    The paper reinforces the opinion expressed here the world is seeing the emergence of defense as the current dominant form of warfare.
    chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/jfq/jfq-103/jfq-103_10-17_Hammes.pdf?ver=OMgkzdhCeQLSxaHs_SvOdw%3D%3D
    Defense becomes dominant again JFQ 103 Q4 2021.pdf
  22. Upvote
    OBJ got a reaction from RMM in Engine 5 Wishlist   
    Just to pile on to what @SlowMotion said, there is now a 'Target Briefly' in the 'C/Combat' panel. From your shoot/scoot waypoint you can plot a 'target briefly' command to engage at least the area/action point you want to engage, setting your 'Pause' duration to match the 'Target Briefly' duration, or not, before your unit reverses/moves into cover.
  23. Upvote
    OBJ got a reaction from The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Apologies if a repeat, did not find a duplicate reference, so...2021 JFQ paper on defense again becoming dominant in warfare, all domain and inter-domain discourse to include space, cyber and EM, global economic and military implications, multi-domain warfighting, the difficulty of synchronizing cross domain attacks, acknowledgement no one really knows what new technologies are capable of until they are employed, implications for the US/west success in resisting Chinese and Russian armed aggression.
    Also this, in the EM discussion, which was new to me, possibly not to others here, 'At the tactical level, the United States has demonstrated a drone that can create an EMP directed at specific targets.'
    The paper reinforces the opinion expressed here the world is seeing the emergence of defense as the current dominant form of warfare.
    chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/jfq/jfq-103/jfq-103_10-17_Hammes.pdf?ver=OMgkzdhCeQLSxaHs_SvOdw%3D%3D
    Defense becomes dominant again JFQ 103 Q4 2021.pdf
  24. Like
    OBJ got a reaction from Erwin in How Hot is Israel Gonna Get?   
    Not sure, this maybe outside the scope of this discussion and this forum, but, lets see.
    In addition to us as a community having an abiding appreciation for the game/simulation that is Combat Mission, should we, as a community with direct experience of world events over the last 20-70 years, be tying this thread and the one on UK together into a robust discussion of the theories on cycles of human violence? Would we benefit as a community in this forum from a wider discussion and understanding of these theories, their implications, and potential to impact us as a community? What would the discussion mean for Combat Mission, the game, and the community?
    Just one reference, there are plenty more from many other sources. If you are interested google, 'theories on historical cycles of global violence.' In a quick read through this one seemed reasonably objective even with a clear 'western' bias:
    https://jfsdigital.org/articles-and-essays/2023-2/vol-28-no-1-september-2023/ukraine-war-and-historical-war-cycles-was-it-to-be-expected-exploring-the-futures-of-the-war-in-ukraine-through-historical-war-cycles/
    There are a couple quotes I thought worth including below the graphic.
    The take away I got was, at least in this article, the consensus seems to be there will be another global conflagration somewhere between 2025 and 2050.

     
     
    'In conclusion, the cyclical nature of violence and conflict is a complex phenomenon that can be attributed to a variety of causes, including economic and political troubles, generational shifts in social psychology, and theories of social cohesion and natural life cycles. While there is no fateful date that can be directly blamed for the outbreak of violence, the similarities between past and present cycles can provide insight into the potential duration and disintegration of civilizations. Through the study of these cycles, we can better understand the history of human conflict and even think about future trends.'
    'In the atmosphere of all-encompassing hysteria and bullying, it’s imperative to remind people that life goes on and that staying human is the first and foremost necessity. Any representative of Homo sapiens belongs to humanity first (…), and some national or ethnic entity, way down the list.'
    'The real mystery lies in why, despite being aware of the tragedies of our past, we continue to repeat history.'
     
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