yarmaluk

Ok...STOP.
  I am not a moderator on this forum but I have @BFCElvis on speed dial.  This thread is about the war Ukraine and, yes we have discussed surrounding issues and possible 2nd and 3rd order effects this war could have on the region.  This thread is not about:
- Bafflingly narrow or simply out of date concepts such as solving human cultural overlaps with policy.
- Vilifying the entirely of all Russian peoples as somehow less than human.  No human society, culture or whatever has or ever will be entirely homogeneous, good or bad.  So sweeping ideas of how to solve a "Russian Problem" by a bunch of old guys with too much time on their hands, which they should spend learning more, are not 1) viable or 2) useful here.
- I get we are sore on Russia right now, they earned that one; however, at what point on this incredibly myopic line of thinking do we become worse than that we assign to them?  All in the name of "safety" - a whole lot of atrocity and historic marks of shame lay on the feet of "safety".  I have been to one genocide and trust me none of you know what you are talking about, so stop hijacking the thread.
- FFS, we did not even take the approaches some are proposing here during the Cold War, we went with "contain and attract/entice", and we won that one.  In fact we look back on the occasion of the McCarthy era - which is where this is going- as a dark chapter 
You wanna talk about mass deportations, forced migration, race/ethnic cleansing/purity or any other whack-job nonsense there is literally an entire internet out there, let's try and keep this one small "sane space".    

Ah, yes, here we go again. Each and every Russian. Well, I know Russians who are not like you describe them, so your theory is already falsified.

Now I'm imagining bunch of Ukrainians in Russian uniforms dragging wheelbarrows of explosives to the airport while the security looks at them and thinks "eh, it's probably fine, I don't care enough to look into it".

I don't believe that's how they think.
Murdering people and the blatantly lying about it to your face is a show of power. They know it is ridiculous. They know you know. They know there's nothing you can do about it. They are laughing at you.
"Yes I murdered them for fun, and I won't even give you the satisfaction of admitting it - even we both know. What are you going to do about it? There is nothing you can do about it. This is me showing the world what I can get away with."
Same with MH17, same with bombing Odessa after pretending a deal, same with deliberately bombing hospitals and other despicable things.

Its interesting how South Korea is walking a fine line on Ukraine. Wanting to claim 'neutrality' (due to its proximity to Russia) but willing to sell to nations helping Ukraine. Canada gives Ukraine 500,000 artillery rounds, Korea provides Canada with an equivalent in replacement stocks. Poland helps Ukraine, S. Korea agrees to a big Polish arms deal. There's always one degree of separation.

It reminds me of my first acid trip at a dead show.

I think you have, but whatever, it's an interesting point. 
IMO he is right about the issues he mentions but he is at best forgetful of the sponsorship he receives.  And I say that as a supporter of a newly Saudi owned football club (NUFC).
And... back in the room.

Is the war in Ukraine basically a climate change war?
In case you're now rolling your eyes and letting out a groan because you are fed up with hearing about climate change, I get it. But I think there's actually an argument to be made here:
1: Russia's economy is massively built upon revenue from oil and gas.
2: Fossil fuels are now rapidly being phased out due to climate policies. Electric vehicles are booming in many countries and the demand for oil is therefore set to decrease.
3: The world's population is still growing, and it's becoming harder to produce food due to more chaotic weather patterns. So while demand is increasing, supply is set to fall. This will make food production a more important resource in the future.
4: Ukraine is a huge food producer.
Therefore, if we look at it from a purely cynical perspective, and if we assume Putin cares about Russia's future greatness, I think it makes rational sense to try to seize Ukraine.
I'm not saying climate change is the only reason for the war, but I think it might be one of the most important ones.
 

Of what costs are you talking about precisely? 
The economic cost of sanctions imposed of Russia? This is ours to bear because of decades of spineless politics aimed at short time economic gains, and unwillingness to stand up for European Values we are so proud of. 
Cost of rebuilding UA after the war? At that poin it equals to a few hundred billion Euro - it is a lot, but hardly unbearable for EU as a whole. Significant part of it will come back in form of contracts for European companies doing the work. And there's the ethical side of it of course... 
Cost of integrating UA into EU? It will take years before the will be able to join, and even then enlargin EU is in general mutually beneficial to everyone, new markets open, new workforce,etc. it isn't a zero sum game. 
Yeah, wars suck and are expensive, but it really could've been worse. And quite possibly all this money spend buys Europe a much better future for decades to come. 

That.
The other part is due to the political chaos in the US and the devastating role a certain American politician played in weakening NATO, allienating Europe from the US and befriending Putin and his criminals. Equally huge, I would say.

Umm…yes.

Looks like this thread will bring up China topic every 20 pages, inevitable destiny. Usually I will avoid because I believe this is off topic, also a lot of other members put some very good analysis and insights below. But I would just like to add some comments here.
China is helping Russian to stabilize its currency and inflation level by importing Russian oil/gas at higher than market level price , exporting the low cost consumer goods. And that’s it, nothing else. There are speculation that Chinese leadership is pushing for companies ignore the sanction but no avail. US sanction on Huawei and ZTE looks too scary. With China locked in some political drama this year, none of the Chinese corporation has the initiative to challenge the sanction (which I will explain later)
But the noise of “China is directly supporting Russia war efforts” will not go away. Almost every side is interested in to prove this is correct.
 
America:  making enough noise should remind the Chinese corporations don’t cross the red line, sending a clear message to the faction in CCP that pro business with western, Uncle Sam means business. To preserve our long time partner ship (and profits), you got to stand up and prevent such terrible things from happening. The threat of sanction should also reduce the volume of those panda hugger in Wall st, and make the international investor who want to invest into China think twice (OK, in the age of crazy inflation/recession, invest into America instead, I get it.😐)  ,
 
Russia: Back in 2019, a journalist asked Mr Putin that in the age of trade war between China and US, which one Russian will be side with. Putin replied , “when tigers fight in the valley, the smart monkey sits aside and waits to see who wins”. And this “Smart” monkey made a fatal mistake, got trapped, tigers wandering around the poor monkey. Monkey’s only hope is to have the tigers fight each other asap.  It looks like Putin and Xi had some kind of agreement during Beijing winter Olympic. Regarding how Russian can retaliate China if China refused to help, first , Russia can use the agreement to blackmail Xi
https://www.newsweek.com/china-planned-taiwan-invasion-fall-alleged-russian-intel-leak-claims-1688449
If that doesn’t work as intended , Russia can look for a different option, leak all the secrets to the public. Pushing Uncle Sam to keep his promise and sanction China. After that it’s probably out of control but that is what Russia needs, a chaos.
 
 
Now the most interesting one is China:  President Xi’s inner circle has used all available resource advocating “blood alliance” with Russia. Although never admitted publicly, under the instruction of Publicity Department many news outlets and influencers spread the rumor says Russia has received tremendous war materials from China. Funny thing, this propaganda is for internal political struggle.
Contrary to common popular belief, China is not a dictatorship. It is an oligarchy. Although people love to compare Emperor Xi to Chairman Mao, Xi is not a dictator yet.  Of course, we can safely assume he wants to be the Emperor. And due to the fact that he have made so many enemies,  he’d better to become the dictator to save his ass. So the scheduled ccp 20th party congress become a super important event. The country’s future, many elites families’ fate will be decided in this congress. Xi is facing a strong resistance at this moment. TBH it is unlikely he will be sacked in 20th party congress, but the opposition factions can block many important positions previously promised to Xi’s follower, which makes him a caged tiger without teeth. 
In order to secure his position, expand his territory, Xi must show the Party that under his leadership China has become
1, economic powerhouse: No one is going to deny that, but generally Chinese economic take a downturn under Xi 2nd term. It could face a crisis later this year. Of course, a projected western recession works in his favor. And a Chinese economic crisis works as a double edge sword, bad economic could damage Xi’s opposition factions’ power and influence, boost the message to all party members that we need an isolated, self-sustainable economic, and a STRONG LEADER
2, unification of the whole country: not going to happen this year, but maybe PLA can make a limit size operation, occupy Kinmen, Matsu and Taiping Island
3, successfully defend the population from pandemic: people will buy this in 2021, but with crazy strict lockdown this year, other factions interests have been badly damaged, it may have forced many neutral factions take the opposite side
4, China has taken the leadership of new world order: If Putin can come out as a victorious one. Or even a draw should be good enough, Publicity Department of the Chinese Communist Party will brainwash the population and make people believe that Nato and America is doomed. Empty word won’t help however, Xi must find a way to supply Russia. Unfortunately, most of the Chinese high-tech corporations, military enterprise are controlled by factions that is either hostile to Xi or don’t want to take a side at this moment. So, Xi’s inner circle must make a lot of noise, “Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak”.  The propaganda campaign hopefully will convince some of the factions, that ignore US sanction and helping Russia is taking the side with the winning party.  I know this sounds stupid and could backfire. No one guarantee this will work, but that is their plan.
 
 

Now finally Sumlenny posted something fresh and worth of reading.
Best is Russian Specnaz boarding HMS Victory. Or this one:  "Novorossiya pilot" awakes in a body of Josef Stalin's son Vassily, a war pilot, and wins the war, revealing a Western agent Khrushchov, saving Stalinism".
It's funny, but if you analyze society through its popculture it is really scarry what it can do to collective mentality. Movies like "Stalingrad", "Orda", "1612" were all so bloody, dumb, naive and sadistic that to Western viewers looked like American Pulp Fiction genre. But in retrospect, they were mainstream that builded this damn mythos.
Not to do offtopic- it illustrates that state of collective Russian psyche is one of the reasons why this war may be longer and bloodier than some people in the West suggest, drawing on military situation alone.

Trent Telenko's posts on Twitter really bother me because he seems to take singular events and extrapolate them into generalities that sound good on paper and which people lap up. It started with his tires post, and if he saw the quality of some of the equipment I had as a battery commander (yes, including their tires) he'd probably have an aneurysm. I've also seen my own share of 40 mile convoys of stopped American logistical vehicles, the difference being that US soldiers got to go home after their training with some lessons learned, and the Russians didn't. And as an artillery officer I don't even want to talk about his observations about VT fuzes.

I'm not entirely sure where he is going with this thread, but having actually worked in a Division level strike cell in Iraq, processing missions from SOF, ground space owners, and targets developed within our own cell, the so called "JAG officer poisoned chain of command" is a gross over simplification at best. Yes, times to strike were lengthy, but it was designed that way and NOT due to JAG considerations, and we were certainly capable of being faster, and routinely did so when the situation required. Trying to compare a COIN oriented environment to the modern LSCO fight is ignorant, and as a OC/T who see units training Brigade level fire support in large scale combat operations on a monthly basis, we are certainly faster then the "hour" he claims we are at. From what he describes, the GIS ARTA app is very similar to the US Army's AFATDS system - designed to process a large range of target requests and associate them with a shooter. It's good to see Ukraine adopting this style of software, but it's hardly unique, and the realities of maintaining the digital communication linkages required for full functionality of the system can be hard in a contested environment. The US military has a difficult enough time doing that in the field, and we have much better comms equipment then Starlink and a lot less incoming rounds.
Sure makes for a good sounding Twitter thread though.

The above is a great example of why this board kills.

Well one could argue that the organization was marginalized long before this whole dance.  The US invasion of Iraq in 03 was definitely a nail in its coffin.  The global order that the UN was supposed to both represent and embody has been stressed and cracking for decades, this has likely just finished the job.
This is not good news.  As constipated and dysfunctional as the UN was it is better than the alternative, which is back to the old anarchy of nations with multipolar power arrangements largely ungovernable besides the rule of the gun.  That is where we were in 1914 except now we have nukes.  So yes Ukraine is bad but what could follow may be a lot worse if we don’t put this whole thing back in a box.
Putin’s sins in Ukraine are historic but if we don’t get our sh#t together collectively he is going to go down as a footnote, assuming there is anyone left to write it down. And if that wasn’t hilarious enough we have climate impacts coming straight at us.
 

But Ukraine was his chance because NATO wasn't (officially) involved in there yet. I also think his speech targeted russian audience. 
I seriously doubt about the will of Putin or even the most disillusioned officer around him that crossing the border of a NATO country is a good idea. Not going to happen even if they had captured Kiev. And now with those losses....? They have admitted they can't win a war with them. And now despite the continuous flow of western arms, getting larger and more beefy by each day, the bloody sanctions etc they don't even move their little finger beyond but mostly bark to Finland, Sweden, Poland and so on. 
To go for a World War you need allies, you don't get in by wondering alone in bad neighborhood and get shocked by the sanctions they impose on you. China doesn't seem willing to be the Japan of 1941, unless there is a lot under the hood we can't see. 
 

Unless he's actually going to light the blue touch paper on all those ICBMs and Kindzhals, his "rambling" has been rendered moot by the results of the invasion of Ukraine. Not only do we now have proof that he didn't have the conventional throw weight to act on that rambling to start with, he's now pissed half that effective strength up the wall. The Baltics could probably defend themselves against what's left without any outside help, but they wouldn't have to, given how he's also solidified the will of NATO that could have been considered fractured before.
Sure, wars start through miscalculation, but it will take additional miscalculation to make this one global. Messing up an attempt to escalate opens up that possibility. Most of our leaders are still working very hard to avoid nuclear armageddon, for which I, personally, am grateful.

Seeing what you’re seeing it’s understandable you’d question the basic humanity of the perpetrators. Every rational observer does but for you it’s even more. I get that.
I’ve also given thought to the comments here to let it go given what you’re country is going through. I disagree. What’s the point of claiming democratic values of respect for humanity and the rule of law if you don’t try to respect them?
But frankly, I’m pretty sceptical about the merit of denying the basic humanity of people. If you don’t do that, it’s got to be pretty hard to get a democracy to work as anything other than a tyrannical majority.
Zelensky is popular because he keeps aloof of Putins’ quagmire of racist crap and promises the rule of law. I’d encourage you to heed his example. It’ll go further with the democratic centre of the EU and US. 
You’re wrong about denazification. People don’t want to know things that are hard to accept. Thats whole “big lie” thing. Ask a German, but the majority of Germans in ww2 ignored or allowed things to happen because the price to them personally was too high to question it. Denazification was about showing to ordinary Germans what was done in their name. Showing them the basic humanity of their victims.
I’m now done.

Some interesting insights:
 
 

Maybe not too far to say you don't. Grossly simplified, but fighting takes place between EW-AD snowdomes: when a snowdome is pierced and collapses, the assets inside are quickly destroyed unless they can flee to another. We kinda already see that from an Air Force perspective (ie. SEAD -> DEAD -> Open Season), the prevalence of drone-artillery recon-strike is pretty much the same thing but for ground forces. Except with a crazy distributed OODA loop.

Then again, it's not like deception is dead. For all the talk of UGVs, I don't think anyone's mentioned their potential use as decoys yet.

Given that Russia has a history of defensive strategies that disregard massive losses and deprivations, the most likely scenario is that (if Putin is not overthrown) Russia will now embark on a long campaign that it expects will outlast the west's attention span.
Of course this is not 1941 and perhaps the Russians have become "softer" than after 20 years of horror under Stalin.  But, it would be dangerous to assume the national characteristic of the Russians for enduring almost unbelievable suffering may not still exist.
The only way there will be the quick resolution that we in the west expect (like a Hollywood movie), is if Putin is replaced.  But, given Putin's expertise in survival and flourishing over the past decades, we can be confident that Putin has contingency plans to ensure he can survive.  So it will be surprising if there is a quick resolution now.  
In Vietnam the US govt stayed the course for over a decade despite relatively massive casualties and no real justification.  We should not assume that the Russians are not also prepared for that sort of costly exercise... perhaps better prepared. 
So long as the Russians can remain sitting on strategically important real estate, Ukraine cannot function as a state without massive western assistance.  How long will that continue if Covid makes a comeback, inflation keeps rising, corporate businesses are disrupted etc...  money is being lost.  Putin may well have calculated that pressure will mount on western govts to force Ukraine to a settlement.
The good thing that will come out of this is that the Russian equipment is again shown to be less than wonderful, and China is deterred for a few more years from attacking Taiwan.
 

So I think we are at the point that we can call it, I think the Russian strategic Offensive Phase of this war is pretty much at an end.  We went from Quick War, to Siege/Grinding War, to what is looking more like Balkan War as Russian forces appear to be 1) pulling back and consolidating and, 2) trying to assert control in the areas they do "control".  This does not mean we won't see offensive action at the tactical scale, in fact I suspect the Russians will burn assets and troops trying to take Mariupole and any other hub they can; however, the big red sweeps are likely over, at least for now.
So what happens next?  Or maybe what could happen next? 
- Strategic Pause.  The Russians almost look like they are trying to conduct a strategic pause, which is in effect and attempt to re-mobilize within political constraints/restraints.  Stories of troops being pulled in from the east and weird "contracts" are a possible sign that Russia is trying for a major re-org/re-boot before they would likely double down on Plan A.  Given how badly they have been chewed up this theory is not too far out there.  If Russia goes this way, it means they think they can sustain the war for months into the summer and make another run at Putin's Dream.  They will need to re-stock a lot of equipment and ammunition so there should be signals in strategic Russian production and pulling out of war stocks.  On the pers side we might see some sort of rumors of a Russian version of "stop-loss" as they start playing fast and loose with military contracts.  I don't think Putin has the backing to go full national mobilization (or he would have likely already done it), so this will be "as much as we can and still be able to call this a 'special operation' nonsense".
- Grab, Hold, Bargain.  More likely, but not exclusive of the Strategic Pause theory is that Russians are going to try to dig in and hold onto as much leverage as they can in order to shore up their position at the negotiating table.  This will likely see lots of medieval stuff to terrorize the UKR government into concessions.  We saw exactly the same ploys in the Bosnian War with Sarajevo (and Mariupole is starting to look worse than that).  The question will be how long this takes but it cedes the pressure back onto the UKR government in a typical extortionist/domestic abusers argument of "it is your own fault that I have to beat you". 
- Last Gasp.  Another option, and one I know favored by Steve, is that this is the beginning of the end for the Russian military in Ukraine.  What we are seeing is a lot of "scrambling for success" a the lower levels so that they can say "we did our part" while the higher levels are no doubt thinking about "alternative options".  The test as whether this is collapse or simply digging in will be how well the Russians can hold up to inevitable UA counter attacks.
So Whats?
    First off the Russian military has an enormous defensive problem, entirely of their own making.  By my rough measurements, by attacking along 4-5 separate operational axis of advance in an attempt to take the whole eastern part of the country, they now have a frontage of roughly 1400km+ to try and "defend".  That is roughly three times as long as the entire Western Front in WW1.  To make any areas they control even close to airtight, they are going to need hundreds of thousands of troops to do it.  Troops I am not sure they have, nor can equip, let alone conduct C2 for at this point.  If Russia is serious about Grab, Hold Bargain, they may have to simply wholesale abandon some axis and gains likely in the East in order to be able to create credible defensives and pressures.  We do know the UA has troops all along those 1300km frontage, they are either regular, hybrid, or resistance/territorial defence.  They know the ground intimately and are continuing to see a steady flow of weapons in from the west.  How the UA counter-offensive goes will be key to determining the actual situation of Russian forces.
    Second, without making the areas they defend "airtight" they will continue to be plagued by attacks along their LOCs.  The Russians might try to make ironclad support corridors but given the ranges of the UKR weapons systems this is a huge undertaking of interlinked strong points just to get the supplies to some sort of front.  This will make the logistics problem worse.  That, and defence still puts a lot of strain on logistical systems, but in different ways.  Ammunition, not gas becomes the central issue.  Field defence stores and landmines take a lot of truck space, so we should be seeing more of that, along with of course artillery and other ammunition.  That and now Russia needs a lot more manpower, which all need a lot more pers-based supplies such as food, water, clothing, sanitation (unless you want General Disease getting into the game) and medical.
    Third, C4ISR in the defensive is a bit of a nightmare.  Whereas in the offence you can prioritize your main efforts, in the defence you have to be able to see and coordinate fires everywhere at the same time.  Doing that along a 1300km frontage is...well, simply insane but hey here we are.  The UA, did a pretty good job of it but it was their ground, they had the HUMINT going their way, and very likely buckets of ISR feeds from the west.  The Russian architecture has not demonstrated they are set up for this.  Further, this is contested airspace so one cannot simply dig in and sit, they are going to have to keep high value assets moving, like artillery, all the time or it will get tagged and hit quickly.  This will mean that Russians will need to employ a dynamic manoeuvre defence, much like the UA did, and I am not seeing that within the Russian repertoire.
    The UA counter-offensive will be key.  I suspect they will stick with the game that has carried them this far and simply cut up Russian rear areas to isolate and then chop up slices piecemeal to keep making gains.  Their hybrid "sharp mass" has been extremely effective in the defence, we will see how it does in the offense but I give them good odds to be honest.  
   If the Russians can do a full Strategic re-set, a big ask, then we could see a Round 2 Offensive Phase of this thing but the odds of it success get worse everyday as the UA "beginners" are becoming veterans very widely.  Further they are likely refining C4ISR building on their successes and more and more lethal aid is pouring in from the west.  If the Russians cannot get back up and moving before that $800M from the US shows up, well they too deserve what happens next.   
   To be honest, if someone tasked me with shooting for a Russian Strategic re-set, I would tell them it is going to take years because whatever they came with in this "come as you are war" was a failure and we are talking about deep military reforms and training in order to re-build a force that could actually pull off what the aspiration of this thing.  In fact you might need to invent a military that does not exist on this planet.  In '03 the US had to advance roughly 500kms to Bagdad and they owned the sky and the sea, had set operational pre-conditions, massive C4ISR overmatch, and have some of the best military logistical systems on the planet.  It took the US 3 weeks to take Bagdad and they were fighting a eroded and beaten Iraqi military that had zero outside support.  The US did not try a 4-5 axis grab along a 1300km frontage because the military planners knew it was impossible with what they had, which was 2-3 times what the Russians brought to this fight (466K, over 500k with allies).  And, politics completely aside, Iraq '03 was not well thought of and still is not well thought of in professional military circles as it failed to secure the gains and led to a multi-year insurgency.  
   So as we proceed on this journey, I am wracking my brain to make a list of the "Dumbest Wars in History" but this one has to be on it and moving upwards rapidly.
 
 

South Korea was no better than North Korea in terms of corruption (and many other bad things) in the 50s and even decades to follow.
But nothing fixes the corruption problem like a constant existential threat.

A "Commissar Corp" would just divert some of the kickback money to a different patronage stream. Corruption is the accepted way of doing business in Russia, from top to bottom. It's so baked in to systems like theirs that it isn't even considered "wrong". The forms of patronage which are the root of the problem are so well established that they will take generations to root out to the levels seen in the less-corrupt* "West". It has, after all, taken "us" a couple of centuries to drag ourselves out of that mire, even to the extent which we have.
The very attitudes that support corruption as endemic in the society will work strongly against any attempt to decentralise the C2 of the Russian military. Ukraine has managed to leverage the existential threat of Russia to make reforms along those lines, it seems, but getting its army eviscerated isn't likely to provoke change in the same way in the RF.
* Yes, "less-corrupt". Corruption still exists, subtle and gross in form, in all societies. Ukraine isn't rated much better than Russia.