Vanir Ausf B

It is very puzzling actually. RU knew it was coming. They had both time and units to strengthen it. But it looks like RU decided to strengthen Zaporozhye direction. There are two theories:
RU is afraid of UKR offensive in Zaporozheye direction above all. It does not make any sense but possibly Putin interference is the cause.  RU is planning to make its own offensive in Zaporozheye direction. It does not make any sense either - the window of opportunity is closing right now due to imminent mud season. I am afraid we do not have enough cocaine and women with low social responsibilities to understand RU High Command  plans.

The bug report did note that "all" M2 .50 machine guns in the game were affected. So the issue was accurately reported even if not every affected unit was listed by name.
Then you'll be happy to know that aside from getting a free copy of the game to test we are not paid anything for finding/reporting bugs.

Finally useful Girkin post
 

A T-90M sighting.
 

The video of Rubizhe defense time - UKR BTR-3E1 of National Guard (likely 4th Rapid reactin operative brigade) fires at the enemy tank, hiding behind the corner of building
 
 

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/24/world/europe/ukraine-south-kherson-russia.html
Pretty rough down there. I'm surprised at the quote that UKR artillery is not always prepping/suppressing defenses before/during an attack.  That seems... counterintuitive. 

Elves? )
 

@Zeleban has said Shahed is easy target for MANPAD, but from what I heard from soldiers, all more difficult. 
Indeed this drone has the engine similar to the bike and it has air cooling, so his heating can be too low for firm lock of MANPAD or any IR-homing missile. Next problem relatively low altitude of flight. We havn't 100 % radar covering and probably our radars are working in flickering mode and constantly move to avoid missile strike, so not always theese drones can be detected timely. 
Soldiers and some ecxperts say that really kinetic systems and even rifles and MG can be effective, but if this asset will be deployed on potential roure of theese drones. Though we gave some troub;es with AA guns. As said Tatras Chmut, director of charity fund "Back-and-Alive", which has license for wepon systems import, we have defficite of ZU-23-2 in about 400 guns. Also barrels to ZU-23-2 and Shilkas also can be problem soon. 
Four drones were shot down with Buk near Mykolaiv and AD SAM (Buk or even S-300) shot dowm Shahed near Dinipo, not MANPAD. So, theese drones can be detected by TELARs and shot with semi-active or active missiiles. Also, I think Strela-10M3 can shot theese drones, using optical channel of guiding. 
 

So, looks like we have new problem - Iranian drones. 
Probably they already arrived in enough number (according to Fligt Radar at least three Iranian cargo jets were delivering something to Russia) and crews completed own training.
If recently Russian used Shahed-136 episodically, that in last several days we can see "pair waves" attacks not only on vehicles on frontline, but on cities. Ochakiv port for three days was attacked by dozen drones. Some port infrastructure and port tug were damaged, some drones were shot down. Yesterday attack on Mykolaiv was repelled by Buk, which shot down 4 Shaheds with 2 missiles (looks like hit zone of missile is enough to destroy a pair)
Today Russians attacked Odesa port - administrative building was hit, 1 civilian was killed, gas station was also hit (strange choice for targeting). One drone of four was shot down
Odesa strikes (pay attantion on noise of Shahed)
 
Gas station hit with Shahed in Odesa
 
Shahed was shot down with a missile over Dnipro
Also UKR AD shod down over the sea Iranian UCAV Mohajer-6, wich belongs to the same class like Turkish Bayraktar and Russian Orion. The drone fell in the sea in good conditions and was towed by the boat to the coast. It's will be intersting which countries parts inside this drone
How it looks Mohajer-6

Rare Russian T-72B modification - T-72B3 mod.2014, as became knowingly participated in assault of Bohorodychne village on 7th of July. You could see the video, where several Russian tanks, stand in line, after blowing up on mines and one tank moves further and also blows up. 
T-72B3 mod.2014 were build in small number specially for tank biathlone and diverses with tall panoramic sight of commander in the middle of turrert and 1130 hp engine. Author names them also T-72B4, but I think this is mistake. 
 
Here small thread of soldier, who participated in this battle:
Theese tanks in number at least three attacked our positions in Bohorodychne among tank company-size unit of 11-13 tanks. But not all Russians have blown up - 5 vehicles have passed minefield and driven to our platoon strongpoint. We fuc..d them with AT-4s and Matadors, but without result. Russians also shelled us with guns and MG also without destructions. By the way, the first tank in column was T-72B without any Z or V and in colors, close to our painting. After our "passionate" greetings, enemy tanks have just driven further and through some time turned back, blowing up on mines on the same place through that they came to us.... All three T-72B3 mod.2014 remained on battlefield
This one almost ok

This one slightly damaged, but can be repaired

This T-72B3 mod 2014 was destroyed

Not sure the EU has managed to avoid Hungary or Poland’s slide away from democratic liberty. What would make Ukraine different? Tbh the fact Ukraine has currently such a long way to go to acceding to the EU is almost all about it’s systems of governance and their robustness (or lack of) to corrosion/corruption. So I’m not sure there’s a lot of blind faith in Ukraine…
Zelensky and his govt have impressed, but what if the next lot are different?
 
NATO membership is in some ways much simpler. Who are your troops going to fight and how reliable are they? How much do we need you? (Why yes please join us Turkey)

Brinkmanship is a good word.
Kind of like how Putin came into Moscow after a successful career as fixer in the Petersburg government, took a look around and saw this perfectly good (former) Red Army lying around rusting and reckoned, why not get some value out of it?
....so the same thing with the Strategic Rocket Forces.  I mean, come on if you can't play high stakes poker with human civilisation with it, what use is it pouring so many billions into its upkeep?
Very pragmatic, actually.
*****
... Oops, did the sun really just come up in the WEST?

 

So where on this thread or anywhere else for that matter will you find an analysis/assessment by me, or anyone else here for that matter that mirrors this?  In fact we were all going the other way while mainstream analysis was saying above.
One year?!  Ok, I think we are done here - you can push back but you are crossing some lines here.  We will be paying off this war for at least a decade, likely longer. The realignment of energy in Europe alone is going to take that long, let alone the reconstruction bill for Ukraine.  The investment in NATO will likely go into the trillions in that time.
You wanna push back with facts, sure let's hear em, but this is more a temper tantrum that the world is harsh and things are likely not going to go all the way you want.  Or you could simply disagree with me and we shall see, but it appears that ship has sailed.  So stamp your feet, hold your breath, it is not going to change likely endgame reality.
Or I could lie to you and tell you that the west will stand behind Ukraine all the way to the 2013 border, even if it takes 10 years and a nuclear war...there, feel better?

Cast The Capt out as insufficiently pure!
 
The revolution always eats its children.

In last two days Pravdyne village in Kherson oblast became an arena of fierce clashes - UKR troops seized the part of village (or even whole) on 18th Sep, but Russians moved there units of 76th air-assault division and counter-attacked, pushed UKR forces back. New attempts of UKR atatcks failed. As result we lost enough armor
 

Kofman and Lee going live in half an hour.

I noticed something interesting - Shoigu said: Conscripts will serve in[side] Russia [only]. That means recently captured territories as well. But that also means any formation reinforced with conscripts will not be able to conduct offensive operations outside of recently captured territories. 
Looks like RU officially switched to strategic defense.

He needs 10,000 sales to clear his beer debt to me ... come on folks, pre-order 😉

After this...
The operation began with diversions: between 1 and 4 September, Ukrainian forces crossed the Siversky Donets north of Slovyansk to liberate Ozerne and Yampil (the former was liberated, but the latter is still under the Russian control). When the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army (1st GTA) — deployed north-west of that area — re-focused its attention in this direction
...I stopped the reading. Yampil wasn't  liberated, when our troops landed in Ozerne. And our troops were not going to do it. Theese were only rumors, but Cooper again gives this as a real fact. Re-focusing of 1st GTD on this area is also not true. Lyman - Yampli defends other troops. 1st GTD just ran away behind the defense line Southern part of Izium - Lyman - Yampil. UKR "few forces" just simulated offensive on Izium, when main strike was in Verbivka and Balakliya area.
I don't read Cooper since March. In UKR and RUS there is proverb "He heard a bell, but doesn't know where it". This is completely about his analysis.    
 

Know why I rarely post here? Bright red text.
You've been here as long as I have, which means you have survived far worse than this kerfuffle 😉

Know why I rarely post here? Bright red text.
You've been here as long as I have, which means you have survived far worse than this kerfuffle 😉

Just M113 )

Long thread on Kharkiv, nothing not gone over by others on this thread but hey, it's nice to see emerging agreement. Gonna quote some interesting stuff. One, as Grigb has gone over, the Russian forces in Ukraine are divided into LPR and DPR, the National Guard (Chechen and non Chechen Rosgvardiya), the army, and Wagner. Wagner can get support, it's seen separatists, army, Rosgvardiya support it's units, even has airplanes but is pretty small, 4-5k, answers only to Putin thanks to Prigozhin.
Wagner is therefore uncontrollable. Same applies for the rest of the factions, who jealously guard their power.
Wagner can recruit from anywhere, Putin's Chef is untouchable, but the rest of Russian bureaucracy remains, and the SMO means no one wants to join willingly, Russia is just dead on manpower. Mobilization will probably do nothing, cause Russians can smell the stink of the SMO and this defeat in Kharkiv will cement their decision to stay far away and Putin's control over Russia is nowhere near absolute.
As seen in the quote below, there were many saying Izyum contained a powerful set of units, the basis for the cauldron or trap for Ukraine to be lured into depended on the Izyum grouping to be a pincer. We know now they were as stripped as anything else in the area.
I strongly believe that the rot in the Russian military is so high that the General Staff can no longer have accurate data on their own units, neither men, supplies, capability, it's all equally suggestible to be false as true.
How is Russia supposed to defend any new defensive line when their officers are more afraid to say everything is going wrong than smoothly? When it's more important to lie about the capability of their unit than to ensure they can win the next battle?
One would hope that maybe this would be a proper wake up call but...I doubt it.