Vanir Ausf B

Seems the first non fake Leopards were spotted 

UKR tanker of 3rd assault brigade told about first case of APS (likely Arena) usage by Russian tank.
 
Translation:
In short, there was fu..g cool Russian tanky, which can't be hit even with NLAW or Stugna. He fu..g annoyed us with his friend, so it was a matter of honor to kick it ***. 
Tadaaam...
It got Krasnopol at his fu..g mug
These morons prescribed shooting at almost everything. except own artillery shells.  
I think, this guy mistakingly thougt that APS passed own ammunition, though indeed the velocity of falling shell is exceeds reaction threshhold of APS, so they could hit the tank with any artillery ammunition with the same effect.
"Defense Express" wrote in April, Russians hastily test own Arena-M  APS, which got upgrades to resist newest western AT assets, including top-attack and they going to mount it on tanks T-72B3 family with opportunity of mount it in future on T-80/T-90 family 

A RUSI article on JDAM vs. Russian EW.
Jamming JDAM: The Threat to US Munitions from Russian Electronic Warfare

I did that in HoI4. It's doable. They probably stole my savegame.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-offensive-going-better-than-expected-u-s-says
Administration officials “were encouraged by better-than-expected progress Monday, as Ukrainian units pushed through heavily mined areas to advance between five and 10 kilometers in some areas of the long front,” Washington Post columnist David Ignatius reported Tuesday. “That raised hopes that Ukrainian forces can keep thrusting toward Mariupol, Melitopol and other Russian-held places along the coast.”
Joe says it's so ..
Biden administration officials say the offensive began on Monday with a Ukrainian thrust south along multiple axes, Ignatius reported, echoing what we reported Monday. 
The White House, however, said it is too early to tell how the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam across the Dnipro River will affect the counteroffensive.
“I won't speak to Ukrainian military operations in any way whatsoever,” White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters Tuesday afternoon. “But right now- too soon to assess what kind of impact [the dam destruction] is going to have on the battlefield."
And perhaps the best data possible: 
Not surprisingly, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu had a very different take than Ignatius on the state of play. He said, as usual offering no proof, that the counteroffensive was crushed and Ukraine lost a tremendous amount of troops and equipment as it staged attacks over three days in several different directions. 
Let's put our seat belts on and pray the war ends soon. 

Of interest: https://jamestown.org/program/succession-in-russia/

All very interesting but was not the reason the US withdrew from the agreement. The above had to do with Iran's previous activities, which the whole world knows involved research and development into nuclear weapons. They are supposed to account for all of it, but haven't come completely clean. Acknowledged. They are bad actors and likely always will be.
Before the Prelim JPA, Iran was 3 weeks away from being able to create enough material for one nuclear weapon, and there was worldwide carping to "DO SOMETHING". Hence the Prelim JPA followed by the JCPOA, which pushed that timeline back to one year+.  There are many safeguards in the JCPOA, not the least of which was limiting Iran's stock of enriched U to 300kg. This is only a fraction of what would be required to create even one weapon. Reconfiguring the Arak reactor eliminated their potential source of Pu, probably more important than enrichment restrictions.
Now that the US has withdrawn, Iran has resumed enrichment activities, put more centrifuges in operation, and has some U enriched to 60%. You need 90-ish% for a weapon. But the work required to get from 60% to 90% is much, much less than the work to get TO 60%. So here we are again. Iran is now a couple/three weeks away from amassing enough material for a weapon, should they choose to do so.
The JCPOA was working. Withdrawing from it was stupid, because we are now right back where we were years ago and there is no new agreement in sight. 
Dave

Ahhh, 120mm Silverbullets...
 
 

One more loss among UKR pilots. Major Vladislav Savelyev, probably Su-25 pilot of 299th tactical aviation brigade, though his friend told he was "fighter-pilot". Was shot down on 2nd of June.
He had a dream to travel to Norway with his family and friends. Now they will filful his wish - his ashes will be scatterd over one of Norwegian fiords.
 

Ok, enough drone talk. How about tanks!
Illia Ponomarenko has a good article on the M1 Abrams Ukraine is receiving and the associated technical challenges.
_________
According to the Kyiv Independent's sources, the Ukrainian military expects to get the M1A1SA variant, which confirms earlier reports by U.S. media.
The SA ("Situational Awareness") variant notably features FBCB2 communications platform for tracking hostile and friendly units nearby and a thermal scope for a .50 caliber machine gun, which improves the tank's effectiveness against hostile infantry in urban warfare.
According to Kyiv-based think tank Defense Express, the fact that, against expectations, Ukraine gets the older M1A1 version of the tank is not bad news. The M1A1 SA version Ukraine will get is generally as good as the M1A2 SEPv2 modernization introduced in the 2010s
However, Ukraine’s tanks will not come equipped with third-generation depleted uranium armor because of the U.S. export ban on such...
..."When you compare the Abrams to other western tanks, it's just a very difficult task — not for the crew but for those who support it," says Mark Hertling, the retired U.S. Army Lieutenant General and the former commander of the 1st Armored Division....
And in this regard, from Hertling's perspective, the Ukrainian military currently has shortcomings with supply chain management. This remains the biggest concern for the retired general, who is deeply supportive of Ukraine's war effort.
For instance, when it comes to engine repairs, M1s variants are powered by a singular integrated propulsion unit titled Full-Up Power Pack (FUPP), a combination of a Honeywell AGT1500 turbine engine and an Allison X1100-3B transmission.
And since it's a jet engine, air filters must be cleaned every 12 hours via startup and cool-down procedures.
"All those things can be taught to the crew, but if ever they make a mistake — and they will — it blows a million-dollar engine that can't be repaired in the field," Hertling says.
"It has to be taken out of the vehicle, shipped back over the supply line, and replaced with a new engine. You can ask why can't it be repaired in the field. I guess if you have a bunch of jet mechanics in your field location where the tanks are, you could. But that's not what the U.S. military does. We pull the engine and ship it back to depot-level maintenance, and they repair both the engine and the transmission."
_________
https://kyivindependent.com/what-will-it-take-for-ukraine-to-maintain-and-operate-the-m1-abrams/
 

That is a good take on it.
 

That is a good take on it.
 

That is a good take on it.
 

That is a good take on it.
 

That is a good take on it.
 

Highly recommended article, from person at place:
https://warontherocks.com/2023/06/what-the-ukrainian-armed-forces-need-to-do-to-win/

and summarily brought to you by Eightify: Youtube Summary with ChatGPT
INSIGHTS:
Military Strategy and Tactics in the War in Ukraine
🤔 There is still a tremendous amount we don't know about the war in Ukraine and we have to revise the story time and time again. 🤯 The Russian military invasion of Ukraine was structured to marry up with an intelligence operation, drawing inspiration from historical Soviet operations and borrowing aspects from the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, but ultimately failed due to incorrect assumptions and lack of preparation for sustained war. 💥 The Ukrainian military was more capable than the Russian forces given credit for and had a strong will to fight, with critical support from Ukrainian civil society and volunteers who stalled the Russian advance at critical points. 💣 Russian military pursues a war of attrition due to a deficit of manpower and a lack of good replacements for their initial losses, leveraging their advantage in firepower to bleed out Ukrainian forces. 💪 Despite exhaustion and casualties, Ukrainian forces have done well in stabilizing their lines and building out reserves, making the Russian military vulnerable heading into winter. 🤔 The state of the war in Ukraine is at an inflection point, with wars proceeding in phases and having operational pauses. 🗺️ Despite the daunting task of facing Russian entrenchments and fortifications, the Russian military has created the best conditions for the Ukraine offensive. 💪 The Ukrainian military has taken significant losses and expanded their force mobilization, while the Russian military has taken even greater losses and also substantially refilled their force mobilization, leading to uncertainty about how these forces will match up in the upcoming fight. 💥 The biggest challenge in the war in Ukraine is not the current offensive, but what follows it, as history shows that conventional wars between states tend to last for several years. 💬 "Generally large conventional Wars. Like this can't be explained by any one small specific Factor." 🏛️ The definition of victory in the Ukrainian conflict is complex and goes beyond just territorial liberation, with the real war aims being to return to pre-2014 borders. Political and Diplomatic Challenges in the War in Ukraine
🤝 The challenge for the West is to determine which countries and political establishments are truly invested in attaining a military victory for Ukraine versus those who only support offensive operations for negotiation purposes. 🌍 "We forget there's a whole other planet out there and actually most of the people live in the rest of that world and the rest of that world is actually very economically significant right and those people have views and we don't check in with them nearly as often as we should."
FULL TIMESTAMPED SUMMARY:
 

“I have had to eat my own words many times, and I have found it a very nourishing diet.”
— Winston Churchill

Biden's just carrying on a tradition.

 
 
 

Biden's just carrying on a tradition.

 
 
 

Biden's just carrying on a tradition.

 
 
 

Patriot missiles also can be dangerous for citizens during ballistic interceptions - this is an accident happened on Monday during mass daytime Iskander strike. Looks like one Patriot interceptor failed and fell with explosion near the bridge in Dnipro.  The bridge was closed for two days and this caused big traffic jams in Kyiv in NE districts.
Interesting that GUR office is close to this place, so Russian propaganda claimed "GUR HQ was successfully hit" %)
 

Ok, enough drone talk. How about tanks!
Illia Ponomarenko has a good article on the M1 Abrams Ukraine is receiving and the associated technical challenges.
_________
According to the Kyiv Independent's sources, the Ukrainian military expects to get the M1A1SA variant, which confirms earlier reports by U.S. media.
The SA ("Situational Awareness") variant notably features FBCB2 communications platform for tracking hostile and friendly units nearby and a thermal scope for a .50 caliber machine gun, which improves the tank's effectiveness against hostile infantry in urban warfare.
According to Kyiv-based think tank Defense Express, the fact that, against expectations, Ukraine gets the older M1A1 version of the tank is not bad news. The M1A1 SA version Ukraine will get is generally as good as the M1A2 SEPv2 modernization introduced in the 2010s
However, Ukraine’s tanks will not come equipped with third-generation depleted uranium armor because of the U.S. export ban on such...
..."When you compare the Abrams to other western tanks, it's just a very difficult task — not for the crew but for those who support it," says Mark Hertling, the retired U.S. Army Lieutenant General and the former commander of the 1st Armored Division....
And in this regard, from Hertling's perspective, the Ukrainian military currently has shortcomings with supply chain management. This remains the biggest concern for the retired general, who is deeply supportive of Ukraine's war effort.
For instance, when it comes to engine repairs, M1s variants are powered by a singular integrated propulsion unit titled Full-Up Power Pack (FUPP), a combination of a Honeywell AGT1500 turbine engine and an Allison X1100-3B transmission.
And since it's a jet engine, air filters must be cleaned every 12 hours via startup and cool-down procedures.
"All those things can be taught to the crew, but if ever they make a mistake — and they will — it blows a million-dollar engine that can't be repaired in the field," Hertling says.
"It has to be taken out of the vehicle, shipped back over the supply line, and replaced with a new engine. You can ask why can't it be repaired in the field. I guess if you have a bunch of jet mechanics in your field location where the tanks are, you could. But that's not what the U.S. military does. We pull the engine and ship it back to depot-level maintenance, and they repair both the engine and the transmission."
_________
https://kyivindependent.com/what-will-it-take-for-ukraine-to-maintain-and-operate-the-m1-abrams/
 

Reportedly idea to conscript convicted to MoD units was bad idea without Wagners disciplne. For several days already third of four news about mass desering of convicts with a wepon. Some Russian blogger says 90 convicts abandoned own positiosn near Svatove and fled.
According to Mashovets, all last news about deserted convicts are about Army, not Wagners. In Army Russians establised some sort of "penalty battalions" of WWII times, but manned by convicts. They organized in companies with a name "Shorm-Z" and attached to assault units "Storm" as "first line meat attackers" 

Another Kofman podcast episode, if you like: