c3k

@sburke @Kinophile
 
@Haiduk, do we know which unit he commanded?
 
Important reporting on the Russian crimes in and around Bogdanivka:
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/04/18/i-can-do-whatever-i-want-to-you

Yes, all attacks repelled
In occupied Tokmak town, Zaporizhzhia oblast, locals sent coordinates of Russian radar and reported about new miliratary train with ammnunition on the railway station, guarded by armored train. Ukrainian forces, reportedly struck targets (I think, with Tochka-U, Vil'kha or Smerch). Volunteer fund Back-and-alive clains radar was hit as well as ammunition train
 

What? Did someone just mention "flares"?
 

Re: The West supplying armaments to Ukraine.
I'm surprised and a bit disappointed that thus far only old stock is being considered (some exceptions, like ATGMs, LAWs, and Switchblades).  Those modern ATGMs are all useful for stopping active Russian movements, but not so much for rooting the Russians out of Ukraine.
Towed artillery does not seem to have a place on this battlefield. Yet, that's what the US is providing.
Old tanks? I understand the argument about training and support and timeliness. However, this war will not be a 6-week war (already past that), or a 12-week war. It is a war that will not stop until one side or both sides lose the will to continue it. Does anyone see Ukraine being satisfied with a solution less than 100% victory?  How about Putin? 
How long has the 2014 battle lasted? Yep...since 2014.
Planning NOW for the long term will ensure success at the soonest possible time. Pumas, CV90s, Leo 2s, Abrams, PzH2000, M109s, Patriots, MLRS, etc, need to be provided. Lend lease is a great model. 
Stopping the Russian advance is one thing. Pushing them back off of Ukraine's territory is a another.

Go Netherlands!
 

Slovakian artist Rado Javor, illustrator of Total War games series issiued two new artworks about the war in Ukraine. Recently he has drew series "seasons in Ukraine" about war of 2014-2015.
Seasons:
Spring in Ukraine (fighting around Sloviansk)

Summer in Ukraine (Ukrainian July offensive)

Autumn in Ukraine

Winter in Ukraine (Donetsk airport)

Also two other artworks
Sunflower fields (tank ram of sen.lt Abramovych 12th of August 2014)

Winter war (campaign of winter 2015)

And new arts:
The general

Moskva

More his arts on history, military, game, sci-fi tematics you can find here: https://www.deviantart.com/radojavor

Re: The West supplying armaments to Ukraine.
I'm surprised and a bit disappointed that thus far only old stock is being considered (some exceptions, like ATGMs, LAWs, and Switchblades).  Those modern ATGMs are all useful for stopping active Russian movements, but not so much for rooting the Russians out of Ukraine.
Towed artillery does not seem to have a place on this battlefield. Yet, that's what the US is providing.
Old tanks? I understand the argument about training and support and timeliness. However, this war will not be a 6-week war (already past that), or a 12-week war. It is a war that will not stop until one side or both sides lose the will to continue it. Does anyone see Ukraine being satisfied with a solution less than 100% victory?  How about Putin? 
How long has the 2014 battle lasted? Yep...since 2014.
Planning NOW for the long term will ensure success at the soonest possible time. Pumas, CV90s, Leo 2s, Abrams, PzH2000, M109s, Patriots, MLRS, etc, need to be provided. Lend lease is a great model. 
Stopping the Russian advance is one thing. Pushing them back off of Ukraine's territory is a another.

Re: The West supplying armaments to Ukraine.
I'm surprised and a bit disappointed that thus far only old stock is being considered (some exceptions, like ATGMs, LAWs, and Switchblades).  Those modern ATGMs are all useful for stopping active Russian movements, but not so much for rooting the Russians out of Ukraine.
Towed artillery does not seem to have a place on this battlefield. Yet, that's what the US is providing.
Old tanks? I understand the argument about training and support and timeliness. However, this war will not be a 6-week war (already past that), or a 12-week war. It is a war that will not stop until one side or both sides lose the will to continue it. Does anyone see Ukraine being satisfied with a solution less than 100% victory?  How about Putin? 
How long has the 2014 battle lasted? Yep...since 2014.
Planning NOW for the long term will ensure success at the soonest possible time. Pumas, CV90s, Leo 2s, Abrams, PzH2000, M109s, Patriots, MLRS, etc, need to be provided. Lend lease is a great model. 
Stopping the Russian advance is one thing. Pushing them back off of Ukraine's territory is a another.

Hopefully not looking for cats which was a thing with the media a few days back.

About situation around Kreminna, Luhansk oblast. 
As stated the head of Kremiina military-civil administration Olexandr Dunets, hevay clashes for the town lasted three days. Russians concentrated big armored forces there, Dunets told on one direction agaist one UKR platoon Russian threw in attack 43 armored vehciles (full battalion). This night Russians entered to the town, but couldn't hold position, so they heavy shelled the town with artilelry, damaged seven resedential buildings and large sport center (probably they though this is a base of UKR troops). Now UKR forces have abandoned town, just small rearguard detachments is covering their withdrawal on Kreminna outskirts.
Kreminna surrounded by forests, so probably Russians could approach throug hsome forest roads with a help of traitors. In previous days units of 128th mountain-assault brigade has sucesfully been repelled attempts of LPR forces to take the town. Looks like Russians decided move here large part of own troops to take the town and open the way to Sviatohirsk and Rubizne, for which continues heavy street clashes.
  
There was yesterday's information that UKR troops threw out enemy from Kreminna on several kilometers. This was obvious "broken radio effect". This information was actual as far as 10 days ago, but somebody have seen it only now and hurry to post it again. But situation is changing too fast. 
Izium, Kreminna, southern direction - unlike JTO zone, which have tough strongpoints, these areas have in best case light trenches. The war on these axises mostly is series of meeting engagement punches exhcange of multiple small tactical groups + continous artillery strikes, so some territories can change owners day by day.  
Here is just illustrative map of Kremiina area, which was actual 7-10 days ago. Current frontline configuration still unknown

As I told recently, population of Crimea and industrial East before 2014 was not so pro-Russian, but mostly Soviet-nostalgy. They equalized modern Russia with old good USSR times. So many of these people, which because of many factors were Ukrainains only by passport, but by own moods remained "Soviet poeple", at least didn't mind that Russia would come here. They thought Russia would bring here Soviet style of life, Moscow-level salaries and cheap prices. There is good aphorism, we lost part of Donbas not because pro-Russian moods were so strong there, but because majority of people didn't care.
Most of pro-Ukrainan population abandoned occupied Donbas territories. Only real pro-Russians left or conformists, which will take power of stronger force because of typical Soviet mentality "we are "small people", we do not influence anything", reigned in these territories. 
So, of cousre overal attitude for Donbas population like to "miserable traitors, who trade Ukraine for cheap sausage and vodka". Attitude to LDPR fighters always was scornful. But since real war began it obviously will more and more shift to more tough. I think, after liberation of Donbas better way will be to force pro-Russians to go away to Russia, to their "promiced land" or establish the term of "non-citizen" like in Baltic states.
The harder situation with Crimea. Many of locals were glad, when Russia came, but now after Russian oligarchs has been destroying unique Crimean nature for own villas, hotels and new residential districts, when locals encountered with full decline of medicine, food quality degradation and rising ot prices, their love to "mother Russia" significantly hesitated. But anyway, since USSR time in Crimea and especially in Sevastopol, many retired officer families from Northern of Pacific fleets were settled. At least 30-40% of pre-war polpulation confess strong pro-Russian and agressive anti-Ukrainan position. Also at least 500 000+ Russians migrated to Crimea since 2014 and bought here own real estate. And we should solve somehow this problem. I think, most of them will run away by Kerch bridge without our help.    

History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes.

I'll see your Flight Simulator and raise you map army ...
MilitaryMap - Plan your Mission
I've been noodling around this one as well and am miles off finishing but I've done enough to work out in terms of ground alone that a Russian attack is going to be a big ask.

The images above are different map/imagery sets of the same area with the red line being the approximate FEBA as of a few days ago.  The area shown is basically Izyum-Slovyansk-Kramatorsk.
The broad COAs for Russian are basically:
COA1 - Deep Envelopment. COA2 - Medium Envelopment. COA3 - Shallow Envelopment.
Of the three COAs - COA1 offers the best opportunity for manoeuvre and is the preferred COA.  COAs 2 and 3 both involve moving through severely restricted terrain and a battle for Slovyansk.  As a guesstimate, moving through the woods to Slovyansk will swallow up a minimum of three BTGs if the Ukrainians choose to disrupt the advance on the approaches to Slovyansk.  Slovyansk cannot be bypassed which means that if it is going to be defended, it will require a minimum of 4-5 BTGs to subdue.  A number of 22 x BTGs has been banded around for the force assembling in Izyum meaning that COAs 2 and 3 will expend nearly a third of the available combat power in Izyum covering the first 35km.  That is assuming that Russia can knock Slovyansk over easily for which there is little evidence to suggest that it is capable of doing so should it be defended.  It will also probably take at least a week to clear out the defenders which means that COAs 2 and 3 stand little chance of achieving a face saving "victory" by 09 May.  In fact COA 2 will definitely fail to deliver on that timeline.
Map Army Files are below if anybody wants to rummage around the detail bearing in mind this is WIP.
BAE.milxlyzRussian FLOT 10 Apr.milxlyz
 

Amusing if true :
 

There is a big shift towards unmanned aerial combat vehicles, a fancy name for unmanned fighters. The Loyal Wingman program is a precursor.  Removing the pilot from the airframe frees up a ton of weight...literally. Pilot, ejection seat,  life support gear, instruments: that's roughly a ton of weight. And, you're no longer limited to 9g (and that only for short times).
(And, one ton at 9gs means 18,000lbs of structure that does not have to be accounted for...or could be replaced with weapons, fuel, sensors, etc.)
The language is still catching up to the technology. Drone, quad, kamikaze, loitering munition, weapon truck, UCAV, etc...  
Optionally-manned equipment in combat is going to happen, both on the ground and in the air (as well as on/under the sea). 
These innovations will prove crucial when we battle Space Lobsters.    (Hey, you're still planning on making that, right?)

Today's shelling of the center of Kharkiv, reportedly 5 dead, 13 injured. Brave paramedic stayed under fire with wounded woman and shouts to the rest of wounded: "Lie down! Don't get up!"
 
 

UKR seems to be launching a lot of attacks today
Ukrainian military in Joint Forces Operation zone repelled 10 Russian attacks today. 15 tanks, 3 pieces of artillery, 24 armoured vehicles destroyed. 4 Orlan-10 drones and 2 cruise missiles shot down (16/04 PM) :

Ukrainian army counter-attack between Kreminna, Rubizhne and Sviatohirsk, Russian troops were pushed several kilometres to North-East (today) :
 
Ukrainian army conducting offensive operation at Kutuzivka, Bairak, and east to Mala Rohan (today) :
 
 
On Russian side :
Russian army attempting to advance at Liubymivka-Novozlatopil line :
 
Battle ongoing for Lozove village on the border between Donetsk and Kharkiv regions
 

 
 

There is a big shift towards unmanned aerial combat vehicles, a fancy name for unmanned fighters. The Loyal Wingman program is a precursor.  Removing the pilot from the airframe frees up a ton of weight...literally. Pilot, ejection seat,  life support gear, instruments: that's roughly a ton of weight. And, you're no longer limited to 9g (and that only for short times).
(And, one ton at 9gs means 18,000lbs of structure that does not have to be accounted for...or could be replaced with weapons, fuel, sensors, etc.)
The language is still catching up to the technology. Drone, quad, kamikaze, loitering munition, weapon truck, UCAV, etc...  
Optionally-manned equipment in combat is going to happen, both on the ground and in the air (as well as on/under the sea). 
These innovations will prove crucial when we battle Space Lobsters.    (Hey, you're still planning on making that, right?)

There is a big shift towards unmanned aerial combat vehicles, a fancy name for unmanned fighters. The Loyal Wingman program is a precursor.  Removing the pilot from the airframe frees up a ton of weight...literally. Pilot, ejection seat,  life support gear, instruments: that's roughly a ton of weight. And, you're no longer limited to 9g (and that only for short times).
(And, one ton at 9gs means 18,000lbs of structure that does not have to be accounted for...or could be replaced with weapons, fuel, sensors, etc.)
The language is still catching up to the technology. Drone, quad, kamikaze, loitering munition, weapon truck, UCAV, etc...  
Optionally-manned equipment in combat is going to happen, both on the ground and in the air (as well as on/under the sea). 
These innovations will prove crucial when we battle Space Lobsters.    (Hey, you're still planning on making that, right?)

My bold.
Yeah, that was me that linked this from Military History Visualized.
 
As to your points, here's a counterpoint: your UGV  IS the next tank.  It is the essence of mobile direct firepower. No one ever said the crew has to be inside it.   

You do know we did that a very long time ago? Like literally in 1996 when our Constitution was written? Any nazi symbols haven't stopped being a criminal offense for a second. Granted we included commies in there only 2015. Sadly.

Took me a while to get down. I set the Moskva 60 nm South of Odessa as reported. I then placed 3 Bayraktar drones near the Moskva. I had a Klub-M-Tel ground based SSM (only Russian based one I could find for Ukraine).
I has a NATO AWACS operating from NATO territory feeding intel data.
I fired the Klub SSMs at the Moskva using Engage Target Auto modeand when the entered the air search range of the Moskva I would move the Bayraktars over the Moskva and harassed it and I got hits. Seems like I had to be on top of the Moskva to get this to work. Below is a shot from one of my earlier unsuccessful attempts.
Klub-M-Tel does seem to have an attack profile different than what was actually used. I'll try Harpoons later.

Ive said it before, youve agreed (I think?) and so its old ground, but I'll just say it again. Maybe this time the people on the TV will hear me. 
The west has never broken out of its WWII mentality. WWII (adding in of course a conventional WWIII ca 1989 or Desert Storm) is how we are told war should look. Big sweeping troop movements, hundreds of thousands on the march, big lines dashing across maps sweeping all in front of it. In 1945 it made a lot of sense. Even in the death throes of the Nazi empire this is basically how the war played out. In winter 1944 the Germans attacked a weak point in the allied line, swept all before them, right up until they were stopped first by the herringbone at Bastogne and second by US&UK troops in Belgium. Then it was the Americans turn to do the same. Ditto for Desert Storm. This is the 'normative war' in the western brain. And of course how did it end? Germany surrendered in a tent, signing a piece of paper saying they give up, while the remains of their armies were rooted out of bombed out cities. And in Japan, a US battleship sailed into the port at the enemy capital to receive the surrender, complete with band and photographers. 
We learned a couple times since then that war isn't as much like that as we think it is, but in each case it shows up like an aberration, a scar. Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, these were not fun wars for the US. Not popular or easily understandable. Its easy to describe the tactics of the war, but to chart its progression on a map? I havn't even seen professional historians try to write operationally on either one. These wars, IMO, have always been treated like exceptions to the norm. The war we dont want to fight. The war we were tricked into, not just politically but militarily by an enemy too cowardly to just stand up and fight a pitched armored battle (except of course Vietnam had those and we in the US just conveniently forget that fact). The reporting on these wars helps to reinforce the idea that the 'Peer-to-peer' great power war is still more like the mid-20th century than the 21st.
What were seeing in Ukraine though is that war has changed since 1945, asymmetry isn't the 'dirty trick' of the man in the black pajamas. Its the ideal endstate of a decentralized, networked, and fluid form of warfare. I have a very low opinion of the kind of "analysts" and "historians" you see popping up on TV and hocking their right-to-best-seller books. Perhaps you all have gotten that sense from me before. But I genuinely think that the people in this thread have a much better head, and more importantly a much more open an honest manner, than those you see on TV. Someone like Max Boot, and his stupid ****ing hat, isn't writing honest history. Hes writing history to sell a very specific viewpoint to a very specific group of policymakers. If you really read into what hes writing, hes trying to become THE COUNTERINSURGENCY GUY. He has his magic tonic (will also regrow your hair, he totally just wears that hat to look cool) and hes thinks its perfect for you. We had that Fox News Col from a few hundred pages ago, that guy is just doing the same thing. The talking heads get booked because they say what the networks and papers want them to, they either will say the line or, if youre a lucky booker, actually believe it to be true. Then a million people watch that show, or read that article, and say 'hey this guy is onto something, and dont you know he has a cool hat!' So of course when it comes to something like this, their off the shelf solutions are unworkable. Because they dont understand the problem, or are even honest about what they do and do not know.  
WWII is great, because, we won! Unless youre Max Boot in which case 1960-1964 is your paradigm because we could have won if people had just bought the tonic hes now repackaged. But now we see something outside of that mold, which defies easy classification. If you were looking at the direction war has been going in the last few years you see things you recognize. Hell I wont call myself the most forward looking person, but I still see a lot of the 1970s and 80s in all this too. But if youre stuck in the 1960s, or worse the 1940s all this is quite surprising. One of the best examples of this was Reddit, where in the runup to the crisis people were asking genuinely if the US was going to have to start drafting people again. That should say a lot about where the public's head is in regards to warfare. And the mass media, especially the mass news media, put it there. 

^^^
My bold, above.
The Russian doctrine has been shown to be deeply flawed. They not only need to come up with a new doctrine, but they need to re-equip based on that doctrine, and re-train based on it.
Oh, and whatever that new doctrine will be? If they want it to be an EFFECTIVE doctrine, they will game it out, test it, stress it, and modify it as needed.
It would be very difficult for any nation to do this within 5 years...if it's a nation willing to self-examination and critical, truthful, review. Russia is none of these.
Putin (because he is the driving force here) MUST attack. He's lost too much not to keep going. Can you imagine the internal dialogue going on right now? No general will say, "Pull back to the borders and sue for peace." They'll get replaced and, if they're lucky, just fired. 
As can be seen by the Black Sea Fleet admiral, defeat is being blamed on the individual in command.
This is not the atmosphere that is conducive to being flexible with doctrine.

^^^
My bold, above.
The Russian doctrine has been shown to be deeply flawed. They not only need to come up with a new doctrine, but they need to re-equip based on that doctrine, and re-train based on it.
Oh, and whatever that new doctrine will be? If they want it to be an EFFECTIVE doctrine, they will game it out, test it, stress it, and modify it as needed.
It would be very difficult for any nation to do this within 5 years...if it's a nation willing to self-examination and critical, truthful, review. Russia is none of these.
Putin (because he is the driving force here) MUST attack. He's lost too much not to keep going. Can you imagine the internal dialogue going on right now? No general will say, "Pull back to the borders and sue for peace." They'll get replaced and, if they're lucky, just fired. 
As can be seen by the Black Sea Fleet admiral, defeat is being blamed on the individual in command.
This is not the atmosphere that is conducive to being flexible with doctrine.