Jump to content

LongLeftFlank

Members
  • Posts

    5,352
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    15

Reputation Activity

  1. Like
    LongLeftFlank reacted to JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I take it that the truck in this example is basically the tardis? Ie, despite external appearances it has the internal volume to hold 200 drones plus the crews and equipment required to assemble, target, and launch them, as well as being invulnerable to all types of attack.
  2. Like
    LongLeftFlank reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Solid "meh" from me.  I mean, sure if we see scope and scale that overtakes artillery and begins to hunt it to extinction, like we have seen with tanks...but the evidence is not there yet.
    Guns teaming with Unmanned and Light infantry has happened in this war to pretty solid effects, I suspect it will be a trend that continues. 
    I will put 50$ on the bar that the eggheads in the western MIDs are scrambling to figure out how to build and employ a cheap hunter-killer c-drone, drone.  So an equilibrium wave is coming, but the needle will be moved and cannot be unmoved.
    Whether it moves far enough to drop a second pillar of the combat arms teams (ie artillery) though?  I am betting "no," at least for another decade.  My guess is that they will share the battlefield and advantage will go to whichever side can combine them the best.
    The biggest reason, at least in western warfare will be "control".  Unmanned AI could be let off the leash to swarm and eliminate grid squares, but we will likely get bogged down in legality.  Artillery still has high levels of direct human control, and legal frameworks that govern its employment.  That alone almost guarantees a generational shift. 
    In the end we are talking about "killing at distance".  Artillery and UAS share the qualities to push that out over the horizon when linked into modern C4ISR.  Anything that can stop a drone, won't be able to stop PGM artillery and vice versa. Tanks simply do not have the range and are too big and heavy for what we get out of them.  Infantry can hold ground.  Now UGVs are a revolution for holding ground that we have not seen yet.  But there I also expect human-unmanned pairing forward. At least at the start.
  3. Like
    LongLeftFlank reacted to Offshoot in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Given the recent discussion on weapon systems, here is an article on the Patriot, its success in Ukraine and how this is increasing demand for it and perhaps increasing its longevity
    How Patriot proved itself in Ukraine and secured a fresh future
  4. Like
  5. Like
    LongLeftFlank reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The problem with battleships guns is that they can only be fired from a battleship. They are sort the poster child for somethig that is going to be few, expensive, and too valuable to lose. Where you can dump cruisse missiles out submarines, and other PGMs out submarines that are much harder to kill, or cheap surface vessels that could be praticlly disposable. The unbelievably expensive radar, defensive lasers, and who knows what else a surface ship will need to actually be survivable can go on a platform dedicated to staying alive, and providing C4SIR to the miisslie barges..
    Ranges for artillery and drones are just going to go up, and then up more. 
    https://www.nammo.com/story/the-range-revolution/
    100 km 155 is in late stage testing.
    Perun covers current and near future drones here with his usual brilliance, was posted a few pages ago, but definitely worth your time if you haven't watched it yet.
    What all of this adds up to is an ever expanding grey zone/no mans land in a more or less equal fight between first tier militaries, and probably vastly higher costs for a first tier power to take on a second, or third tier one. We are already at the point where both sides in Ukraine can barely bring a vehicles within 10km of the front, and they certainly can't stop moving in that  zone for more than a minute or two. Next year in Ukraine that could easily be twenty km instead of ten. In the next war, five or ten years from now it could easily be fifty.
     
    U.S. is at the point of trying to get rid of towed guns completely. They can't shoot far enough, or scoot fast enough.
     
  6. Like
    LongLeftFlank reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I think we have gotten far too comfortable with our “superiorities” over the last 30 years.  To the point they stopped being a factor and simply became basic assumptions. Cam-paint for example.  When I first joined up we were always wearing cam paint in the field because we trained to both hunt and be hunted. Then we got rid of cam paint and frankly I only just saw it for the first time in a long time in training ex pics in Latvia.
    We assumed levels of superiority that are unstable.  We cannot always have air or firepower superiority.  If we believe that we always will, then why even bother with psychological operations? Or we box up psychological operations into “hearts and minds” soft and fuzzy stuff that does not jive very well with killing people. This essentially alienates psychological to a weird niche when before, as you note, it was all over the place.  I think it is on a long list of things we need to re-learn as we head into far more competitive warfare environs - right along with capacity and attrition.
  7. Upvote
    LongLeftFlank got a reaction from chris talpas in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Actual, actual....

    FSRU Marshal Portovyy out of Kaliningrad (whose pipeline has not been cut off) offloads its cargo at sea to LNG tanker Cool Rover. Which ships the contraband gas to buyers who care less about its provenance than its price.
    If [unnnamed Formites] want to act 'wised up' (woke?) about 'strategic global resources', perhaps focus on the stuff that actually moves the needle on balance of trade today.
    That would (still) be stuff the belligerents can put in a pipe or a ship or a train and send where it gets the highest price.
    Los!

  8. Like
    LongLeftFlank got a reaction from kimbosbread in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    As much as I would love this all to be true, due to the Western innovators' need to raise funds, the Chinese are now able to beat (and undercut) any newly commercialised Western product into mass production by stealing all the required IC under a guise of investor due diligence.
    https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/owners-china-based-company-charged-conspiracy-send-trade-secrets-belonging-leading-us-based
    And this is not the TU-144 'Concordski' or Yak-36 'Forget'er' we are talking about any longer. The 'knockoff' products of companies like Xiaomi (which I can get out here in Asia, as well as in Europe) are increasingly comparable to their Western originals in reliable functionality, if not always in service life.
    Again, as much as I'd like for that not to be true, we must be realistic about this.....
  9. Like
    LongLeftFlank got a reaction from kimbosbread in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Can we please lay off beating on our brother Erwin at this point? I think people made their points on the merits, let's turn down the ad homs.
    ...For those who forgot life before Feb 2022, he's put a *gigantic* amount of effort into this community.
  10. Like
    LongLeftFlank got a reaction from Vacillator in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Can we please lay off beating on our brother Erwin at this point? I think people made their points on the merits, let's turn down the ad homs.
    ...For those who forgot life before Feb 2022, he's put a *gigantic* amount of effort into this community.
  11. Upvote
    LongLeftFlank got a reaction from Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Actual, actual....

    FSRU Marshal Portovyy out of Kaliningrad (whose pipeline has not been cut off) offloads its cargo at sea to LNG tanker Cool Rover. Which ships the contraband gas to buyers who care less about its provenance than its price.
    If [unnnamed Formites] want to act 'wised up' (woke?) about 'strategic global resources', perhaps focus on the stuff that actually moves the needle on balance of trade today.
    That would (still) be stuff the belligerents can put in a pipe or a ship or a train and send where it gets the highest price.
    Los!

  12. Upvote
    LongLeftFlank got a reaction from pintere in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Can we please lay off beating on our brother Erwin at this point? I think people made their points on the merits, let's turn down the ad homs.
    ...For those who forgot life before Feb 2022, he's put a *gigantic* amount of effort into this community.
  13. Like
    LongLeftFlank got a reaction from The Steppenwulf in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Can we please lay off beating on our brother Erwin at this point? I think people made their points on the merits, let's turn down the ad homs.
    ...For those who forgot life before Feb 2022, he's put a *gigantic* amount of effort into this community.
  14. Upvote
    LongLeftFlank got a reaction from Sgt Joch in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Can we please lay off beating on our brother Erwin at this point? I think people made their points on the merits, let's turn down the ad homs.
    ...For those who forgot life before Feb 2022, he's put a *gigantic* amount of effort into this community.
  15. Like
    LongLeftFlank got a reaction from Ales Dvorak in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Can we please lay off beating on our brother Erwin at this point? I think people made their points on the merits, let's turn down the ad homs.
    ...For those who forgot life before Feb 2022, he's put a *gigantic* amount of effort into this community.
  16. Like
    LongLeftFlank got a reaction from Monty's Mighty Moustache in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Can we please lay off beating on our brother Erwin at this point? I think people made their points on the merits, let's turn down the ad homs.
    ...For those who forgot life before Feb 2022, he's put a *gigantic* amount of effort into this community.
  17. Upvote
    LongLeftFlank got a reaction from zinz in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Can we please lay off beating on our brother Erwin at this point? I think people made their points on the merits, let's turn down the ad homs.
    ...For those who forgot life before Feb 2022, he's put a *gigantic* amount of effort into this community.
  18. Upvote
    LongLeftFlank got a reaction from TheVulture in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Can we please lay off beating on our brother Erwin at this point? I think people made their points on the merits, let's turn down the ad homs.
    ...For those who forgot life before Feb 2022, he's put a *gigantic* amount of effort into this community.
  19. Upvote
    LongLeftFlank got a reaction from Sojourner in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Can we please lay off beating on our brother Erwin at this point? I think people made their points on the merits, let's turn down the ad homs.
    ...For those who forgot life before Feb 2022, he's put a *gigantic* amount of effort into this community.
  20. Like
    LongLeftFlank got a reaction from Petrus58 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Can we please lay off beating on our brother Erwin at this point? I think people made their points on the merits, let's turn down the ad homs.
    ...For those who forgot life before Feb 2022, he's put a *gigantic* amount of effort into this community.
  21. Like
    LongLeftFlank got a reaction from danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Can we please lay off beating on our brother Erwin at this point? I think people made their points on the merits, let's turn down the ad homs.
    ...For those who forgot life before Feb 2022, he's put a *gigantic* amount of effort into this community.
  22. Upvote
    LongLeftFlank got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yup, and these comments further point up that the key currency in this phase of warfare remains human flesh and blood ('soft ware').
    ...So short of intercepting, neutralising or 'decontrolling' the drones themselves, the critical path to me is to 'harden' those targets and staunch the bleeding by any means possible (and preferably at mass scale), whether it's decoys, camo, armour, fortification, physical distancing, whatever.
  23. Like
    LongLeftFlank reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I take offence to the term "research".  I have reviewed your thread and clearly you had a conclusion and then set about picking information to support it.  This is not "research" it is "spinning" - I have failed staff college students for doing what you are proposing as "research", applying half the facts, largely out of context.
    For example: "Russia already controls large swathes of Ukraine with valuable minerals..."  and linking this back to Chinese motivation to keep Russia in this war.  This is one enormous theory hanging on very little substance.  We have been through the "Ukrainian goldmine" theory before and it was categorically debunked.
    Let's take Metals:
    https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/UKR/Year/LTST/TradeFlow/Export/Partner/by-country/Product/72-83_Metals
    So before this war Ukraine was already selling Russia about $1B a year in metals and about 345M to China.  A quick scan says it looks like Ukraine was doing about $10B in metal globally.  
    Meanwhile China is importing $144B a year in metals globally. Mostly from Indonesia, Congo and Japan:
    https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/metals/reporter/chn?redirect=true  
    China does not need Ukrainian metal, they already have global access an order of magnitude beyond the entirety of Ukraine production.
    The we get into detail like Titanium.  Yes, Ukraine has got healthy Titanium reserves:
    https://inventure.com.ua/en/analytics/articles/titanium-in-ukraine:-military-and-economic-context#:~:text=What are the reserves of,%2C rutile – 2.5 million tons.
    About 8.4 million tons.  Wow, sounds like a big number and no doubt Russia and China want to get their greedy hands on it.  Whoops:
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/titanium-reserves-country-10-biggest-155049656.html#:~:text=China is the largest producer,largest vanadium-titanium magnetite deposit.
    China is the global leader in titanium production. Why on earth do they want more Titanium from Ukraine on the market?
    Lithium? Yes. Ukraine has about 500k tons which are largely untapped. Wow that is a big number:
    https://kleinmanenergy.upenn.edu/news-insights/lithium-the-link-between-the-ukraine-war-and-the-clean-energy-transition/
    Well unless one considers global Lithium reserves - Ukraine has about half as much as Canada:
    https://natural-resources.canada.ca/our-natural-resources/minerals-mining/mining-data-statistics-and-analysis/minerals-metals-facts/lithium-facts/24009
    You will note that China is sitting on 2M tonnes.
    And then there is the thorny issue of where that lithium is located in Ukraine:

    https://www.renewablematter.eu/articles/article/ukraine-all-lithium-reserves-and-mineral-resources-in-war-zones
    This is where these wingnut theories really break down.  Russia was already occupying a couple of these deposits in Donetsk.  Lets be generous and say they took enough to grab 4 new deposits.  Woo-hoo.  Now a few thorny questions:  what shape is the infrastructure in these areas look like right now?  How much is it going to cost Russia to get these sites up and running?  How much actual money are they going to make from this sweet lithium?  When can they expect to see any money?  And finally, the big one, how much does all that compare to the costs of sustaining this war?  Last count the war in Ukraine was costing Russia between .5-1 B$ per day. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_impact_of_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine#:~:text=In November 2022 it was,%24500 million to %241 billion.)
    So your theory here is that China is going to spend effort, money and diplomatic points to secure access to lithium, which they do not need and is costing Russia likely far more than it is worth at this point?  In fact the same could be said for just about all Ukrainian metals.
    Comparing modern day China to Nazi-Germany is just plain dumb.  Maybe pre-WW1 Germany - ignoring socialist ideologies and about four thousand years of history and culture.  The idea that China somehow masterminded this whole thing (with zero proof, I might add) is laughable.  China is stuck on the other side of this mess and is trying to deal with it on their end. They are going to pursue and promote their interests, just like we are.
    Russia and Putin are throwing up all over themselves in some weird attempt to rebuild an Imperial Russia...and are failing brutally.  Sure, Russia could "hold on" until we see some sort of Armistice.  They will have gained a grand total of an additional 6-7% of Ukraine from what they controlled on 21 Feb 22.  It only cost them around 500k men, most of their modern military equipment and diplomatic/geographic isolation that may last several decades....brilliant. 
  24. Like
    LongLeftFlank reacted to Holien in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Soldiers would be the top of the list. I can see an argument that they have less available than they had.
    Maybe better trained less soldiers are enough with better drones.
    I guess we will find out this year...
    Ammo is another concern but that again is potentially fixed but not ideal so worse than last year.
    I think that Ukraine will hold, but compared to the optimism we had last year we could say they are in a slightly worse position? 
  25. Thanks
    LongLeftFlank got a reaction from fireship4 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    (source: The trained agent controlled an off-the-shelf Robotis OP3 humanoid robot, which costs around $14,000)
    (Robots are 20" tall. Some assembly required. Batteries not included)

×
×
  • Create New...