Holien

Military intelligence: Cyberattack on Russian scientific research center deals 'devastating' damage (msn.com)
 

I presume Russia moving Ukrainian POWs would use buses or trains to get to a land border crossing point not expensive planes?
This smells of Russian BS as usual.
Anyone know about the previous swaps and how they took place?

Our former POWs told today Russians really sometime used tarnsport aviation for captives moving. BUT. For group in 50 captives were 20 MP servicemen and 3 of escorting persons from Army. So, Russian claims about 3 guardmen for 63 captives is BS.
This video posted above, shows large holes in the plane remains - so this was SAM work, not MANPAD. 
Also other video shows only two corpses on the field, no any signs of ground litterd by multiple bodies 
UKR General Staff claimed this was UKR AD work
 

I was some busy, so here is statistic of last missile strike:
41 missiles were launched, 21 were intercepted. Part of rest 20 missiles didn't reach own targets, due to manufacturing defects and EW work. Kyiv was attacked with 20 missiles (not clarified by types)
Missile types:
- 15 Kh-101 (15 shot down)
- 4 S-300 (0)
- 12 Iskander-M (5 - probably all five were destroyed over Kyiv)
- 8 Kh-22 missiles (0)
- 2 Kh-59 (1)
 
Again we can see:
41 % were cruise/AS misisles and here we have 94 % of interceptions 
39 % are ballistic missiles and SAM misiles for ballistic fire and here we have 31 % of total interceptions and 90-100 % of interceptions over places, defended with modern SAM systems like PAC-3 or SAMP-T
19 % of supersonic (close to hypersonic) cruise missiles - no interceptions, but they were launched on the areas didn't protected by Patriots/SAMP-T
What about probable targets. Look at Kharkiv. Total 15 missiles hit the city - 2 S-300, at least 6-7 Kh-22, not less 5 Iskanders. 10 citizenens were killed, about 70 wounded. Two more S-200 hit Balakliya city of Kharkiv oblast. 
On the video likely Kh-22 impact in Kharkiv in residental area.
 
One more missile ruined a part of residental building
 
A school was hit (Russians seriuosly think in the city close to the border any public building contains dozens of deployed UKR soldiers)
 
Close impact of missile seriously damaged other residental building

Citizens also wrote about impacts in industrial areas. Gas pipe was damaged, causing a big fire and power facility, which temporary cut off from electricity abou half of the city
And Russian media: cadres of missile strike aftermath on Kharkiv. The AFU objects masked as residental buildings are destroyed

On more Russian Kh-22 missiles probably struck Pavlohrad in Dnipropetrovsk oblast and Shostka in Sumy oblast, these cities have military factories. Results is unknown, but in Pavlohrad seriously damaged two schools and eight multistorey buildings, at least 2 citizens were killed 
What in Kyiv? Likely only one missile reach own target. Russians victoriously defeated sport hall "Locomotive", belonging to "Ukrainain railroads" state company. 

One warhead of shot down missile hit residental building and... didn't explode. Sappers later took warhead out of the flat
One missile obviosly tarheted buildng of MoD, but was shot down in 1 km, fragments fell down on avenue, so the traffic was closed for some time.
Total in this strike 18 civilains were killed and 130 wounded.

Das ist gut.

I doubt anybody in Ukraine will say about attacked military targets. What is known from twitter and TG discussions, most of missiles aimed machine-building industrial facilities. 
I posted a photo of two Kinzhal warheads, destroyed by our sappers - obviously these missiles had to hit Kropyvnytskyi airfield.

I presume Russia moving Ukrainian POWs would use buses or trains to get to a land border crossing point not expensive planes?
This smells of Russian BS as usual.
Anyone know about the previous swaps and how they took place?

Galeev backgrounder (short thread)
Punchline: 
1. This has nothing to do with "Russians protesting against Putin".
2. These are protests in an ethnic Turkic & Muslim region largely motivated by the disregard to local sacred places & ecology
3. And, to a certain degree, by the local nationalist sentiment
****
While I'm looking at Galeev:
 

Hmm I am not so sure we would know as I think Ukraine is pretty good at keeping quiet about Russian success.
I do think the AD is holding up but they are slipping some missiles through and we don't get reports on what they hit.
So not sure this is still true?

A pox on the Republican Party. Cannot believe we are back to this, how joyful for our enemies to know America is unreliable and unable to muster the bare minimum to ensure Ukraine stays in the fight. Europe needs to start their ammo production and step into some bigger shoes. 
 
 

A little more info on that Bradley vs T90 scrum (props to the original poster, 'MarkSheppard' on another forum):
~This Bradley is mounting a drone jammer as shown in this pic he provided.~

https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/...15646653948411

Stepove, Avdiivka, a Bradley IFV of the 47th Brigade is repelling another russian assault. Notice the newly developed anti drone jammer Cupol (Купол - Dome) on the rear top of the turret of this Bradley ifv. ZSU started using this system widle. Average range of jamming from 40-80 meters.
 
Mark's comment.
Apparently the average range of this type of jammer that AFU is using widely is 40 to 80 meters.

It doesn't stop drones from hovering 200-400 meters away and taking video of you with zoom lens; but it does mitigate a little bit of the suicide FPV drone threat...

With one caveat..
...you've got to be moving. A jamming range of 40-50m means that if you're stationary; even if you jam a suicide FPV drone in it's attack dive, the ballistics of the drone will mean that it has a good chance of hitting you....

He knows he will lose and it costs a lot of money to keep a campaign running. He has made a choice to back Trump in the hope he will get something out of it "IF" Trump wins... Either way he will stay in favour of those that voted Trump for future elections...
Trump will win the Republican primaries that has been known for quite a while. The Primaries see only a small fraction of those that can vote turn out and it is easy for a hardcore percentage to sway it for Trump.
What we don't know is how many of every Republican will vote Trump at the election. Iowa was useful to see that nearly 50% of those that turned out did not vote Trump.
In 2024 there are roughly 752k Registered Republican voters - only just over 100k of those voted in the primary.
So he only got support from just over 52k of those that came out to vote.
A lot can happen in the time before the vote in November. The Democrats have yet to fire up their campaign and Trump is getting a lot of free publicity at the court houses...
That could turn out to be bad publicity by Nov...
Anyway that's enough on American politics, back to Ukraine...
 
 

He knows he will lose and it costs a lot of money to keep a campaign running. He has made a choice to back Trump in the hope he will get something out of it "IF" Trump wins... Either way he will stay in favour of those that voted Trump for future elections...
Trump will win the Republican primaries that has been known for quite a while. The Primaries see only a small fraction of those that can vote turn out and it is easy for a hardcore percentage to sway it for Trump.
What we don't know is how many of every Republican will vote Trump at the election. Iowa was useful to see that nearly 50% of those that turned out did not vote Trump.
In 2024 there are roughly 752k Registered Republican voters - only just over 100k of those voted in the primary.
So he only got support from just over 52k of those that came out to vote.
A lot can happen in the time before the vote in November. The Democrats have yet to fire up their campaign and Trump is getting a lot of free publicity at the court houses...
That could turn out to be bad publicity by Nov...
Anyway that's enough on American politics, back to Ukraine...
 
 

Short answer, no. Tom Cooper had an interesting write up on this. The F-16/AIM120 combo is out ranged by the SU35/MIG31/R37 combo.
You also have to remember the F16 Ukraine is getting are upgraded A models which while competent are not as deadly as the latest models in the U.S. inventory.
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/its-the-range-stupid-part-1?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
Way too much emphasis has been placed on the F16 and aircraft in general. One important feature of this war is the way in which SAMs dominate the air battlefield and shape all air operations. Both Ukrainian and Russian air forces are very skittish about  coming into range of the other sides SAMs since that is almost guaranteed death.
More Patriot batteries would be a lot more useful to Ukraine than 40 year old F16s.

Well first off let’s pull some data:
https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/

What is not on that list is how much the US is providing in C4ISR support, which is critical.  But the US accounts for about 1/3 of Ukrainian aid, most of it military.  It would be a very big step, and in many ways a retreat from global leadership for the US to pull out of Ukraine completely.  Given what we are seeing now is a symptom of “anything but what the Democrates want or makes them look good”, I am not sure it would carry over to a complete pull out of support.  First off to fully cut out Ukraine would mean actively severing some military ties and systems. Second, the US would have to essentially place sanctions against Ukraine in order to stop private citizen donations.  And all that would take effort and money.  Far more likely, assuming Trump wins (and here he would really need all three houses of US government) we would see highly symbolic noise but baseline aid would continue to flow.  Trump may use that to try and broker some sort of peace deal so he can look like a “winner”.
Regardless even if the US dropped off the support map completely, 2/3rds of aid continues to flow.  Europe and the rest of the world would have to step up to try and cover off.  Military aid would take a hit but let’s face facts here, most of the military aid has been a bit of a muddle - a mix of equipment and systems thrown at a problem.  Some systems are critical, namely the ones that reinforce Ukrainian denial (especially of the air) others have proven to be useful but not deterministic.  So keeping Ukraine able to deny Russia is likely very possible in this environment.
As Russia continues to demonstrate, defence and denial have a very low bar while offence has an extremely high one.  Cash followed by data followed by ammunition are the most important things Ukraine needs.  Of all that the US is likely most important for the last one.  Now will the US stop selling Ukraine/Europe ammunition? Not likely - that would take active sanctions.  The US might stop giving but selling is another thing entirely.  
US aid is directly tied to US influence.  So the real question is how much influence does the US want/need in his region.  The dumb answer is “none” which a surprising number of Americans actually believe - or more accurately they appear to believe that US influence is somehow above a requirement for global leadership.  However, I strongly suspect that those in charge in the US are not dumb. 
So what?  Well the war would likely continue.  Russia would seize on it to try and cut some sort of deal - and then declare total victory.  Europe and the rest of the world would have to step up and fill the gap.  The war on the ground would likely remain static - gotta be honest, I am not sure if more US military aid would allow for sweeping advances right now regardless.  The best we can expect at this point may be a frozen conflict one way or the other.  If Ukrainians are starting to refuse to defend their own country, well this thing might be sliding to an endgame anyway.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-war-recruitment-tensions-challenges-1.7045571
The West cannot supply Ukrainian will, we can only support it.  Ukraine likely has one more solid chance this spring summer to try and pull off a major operational victory.  I suspect its roots will lie in unmannned superiority, not in fleets of vehicles.  If the UA can pull off a high profile victory it will reinforce support (we love a winner).  If not, well then we are likely at a Korean Peninsula solution.
And the little blue ball will keep spinning while the monkeys throw poop at each other, wondering why it is getting hotter.

This video might be of interest to thsoe who have purchased the battle pack (thank you!) which showcases content from the Combat Mission Red Thunder Battlepack 1 released by Battlefront.com. There are NO spoilers in the video chapters below.
 

Do you? I'd call it entirely unsurprising.

Mark Galeotti...who I quite respect...with a nuanced on Russian prospects even in the case of a 'win': https://www.intellinews.com/stolypin-no-world-war-iii-is-not-on-the-horizon-308608/

another reason for China to be wary of extending itself too much for Russia.
China’s $6.3 Trillion Stock Selloff Is Getting Uglier by the Day (msn.com)
Chinese stocks just capped another dismal week, with a gauge of mainland firms listed in Hong Kong languishing at the bottom of global equity index rankings for the year so far.
Grim milestones have kept piling up in recent days: Tokyo has overtaken Shanghai as Asia’s biggest equity market, while India’s valuation premium over China has hit a record. Locally, a meltdown in Chinese shares is wreaking havoc on the nation’s asset management industry, pushing mutual fund closures to a five-year high.
In all, some $6.3 trillion has been wiped out from the market value of Chinese and Hong Kong stocks since a peak reached in 2021, underscoring the challenge that Beijing faces as it seeks to arrest a decline in investor confidence. Authorities have ruled out the use of massive stimulus to revive the flagging economy, leaving traders wondering when things will improve.
“What we are seeing this year so far really is a continuation of what we saw last year,” John Lin, AllianceBernstein’s chief investment officer of China equities, said in an Jan. 17 interview on Bloomberg Television. “These squeezing-the-toothpaste type of stimulus policies so far haven’t been able to turn around the underlying bottom-up fundamentals of areas like the property sector.”

The HSCEI gauge plunged more than 6% this week and is on track to record its worst January performance in eight years. On the mainland, the CSI 300 Index has dropped in nine of the last 10 weeks. Signs that state funds likely bought exchange-traded funds and a decision by China’s largest brokerage to suspend short selling for some clients failed to halt the onshore benchmark’s losing run.
The headwinds buffeting the market are well documented: China’s real estate sector remains a trouble spot, deflationary pressures are building and a long-running feud between Beijing and Washington refuses to go away, with the US election set to take place later this year. In recent days, uncertainties about the trajectory of US interest rates and the threat of an imminent blowout of local stock derivatives have added to investor worries.
Asian fund managers have cut their allocation to China by 12 percentage points to a net 20% underweight, the lowest in more than a year, according to the latest Bank of America survey.
Managers of benchmark-tracking funds have sold a net $300 million of shares traded in mainland China and Hong Kong this month, according to a Morgan Stanley analysis. That’s a reversal from the last half of 2023, when they bought $700 million on a net basis even as stock indexes declined.
“China is a waiting game and we continue to be waiting,” said Mark Matthews, head of Asia research at Bank Julius Baer & Co., which is mostly avoiding Chinese equities.
Beijing’s efforts to reassure investors have been met with skepticism from investors, many of whom worry that authorities are behind the curve. While the People’s Bank of China took steps last month to pump cash into the financial system, it bucked widespread expectations for cutting a key policy rate on Monday.
Speaking to leaders at the World Economic Forum this week, Chinese Premier Li Qiang trumpeted his nation’s ability to hit its roughly 5% growth target for 2023 without flooding the economy with “massive stimulus.”
Right now, the loss of confidence is so severe that even attractive valuations are of little help. The MSCI China Index has never been this cheap versus the S&P 500 gauge from a forward earnings estimate perspective. Still, bets on a short-term rebound have failed to materialize.
“The government seems very sanguine about the economy,” said Xin-Yao Ng, an investment director for Asian equities at abrdn. “The market might not even trust the 5% growth figure, it certainly has a much more negative view on the economy and definitely believes Beijing needs a big fiscal response.”
 
 

UKR drone operator spotted with thermal camera wounded UKR soldier in grey zone. Because of evacuation team can't reach him, operators in next fly dropped him hot tea and a note "Pal, drink it and crawl follow the drone". They pointed him a way back. Soldier was resqued
 

Intriguing report of the British MoD successfully testing an anti-drone laser system - called DragonFire, because the MoD is the best at chosing names for weapon systems - that is quoted at cost around £10 per shot with a 7 mile range. Although obviously there are questions about how close to reality those claims are and how well it would translate to battlefield conditions in practice. Could be battefield ready "in 5 years".
Paywalled article from the Times: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/laser-weapon-aerial-target-porton-down-xzzwn00ls
Free to view archived version: https://archive.is/ArNai
 

Well first we would need to see something resembling an actual operational level assault.  The fact that neither side is able to concentrate mass to even attempt one is telling in itself.  In fact this may speak to the power of Denial itself.  
However, if a side could somehow create the conditions to mass and then try to project it on a phased offensive…and then we saw 300 troops per km repel it inflicting massive casualties, I think we would have more solid proof.  The Somme was a clear signal that warfare had changed - there had been hints since the US Civil War, but the Somme was a massive operational level offensive about as well planned and resourced as they come.  Its complete and utter failure was a clear indication that something had fundamentally shifted.  The Somme lasted almost 5 months and involved nearly 200 divisions.  
So for this war, we have not seen anything that robust.  Severodonetsk was pretty large. Bakhmut was brutal.  And now Avdiivka etc.  The UA pushes we’re all fairly modest scale, Battalion at the high end.  So for us to call Defensive primacy we would need to see an honest attempt at a significant offensive, complete with all the moving parts (eg airpower).  No side has been willing to do that, I suspect the risks of losses are simply too high for either side at that scale.  So we see a lot of tactical leg humping which definitely suggest we are at Defensive primacy, but I still am not sure if enough mass could overcome it.  I have strong suspicions and frankly would not advice trying it, but we do not have definite proof.
Over time the most telling thing will be if no one can stage a major offensive.  If it remains an unviable option for say the next 2 years…well that tells us something too.  But a lot could change in the next year.  We could see FPV swarms scaled up to make offensives possible again.  We will just have to watch and see.

One thing I've been thinking about is whether the transition to defensive primacy is uniform across scales. We've had wars where tactical, operational, and strategic primacy was divided. Here I'm wading beyond what I've read deeply about, so please correct me where I miss the mark.
So in the civil war, you had defensive primacy at the tactical level, but offensive primacy at the operational and strategic. Armies would maneuver operationally to force their adversary to attack them in a time and place where they could defend tactically and break the adversary (Chancellorsville, Gettysburg).
In WW1, you had attritional offensive primacy at the tactical level, but defensive primacy at the operational level: no one could translate tactical success into a breakthrough. I'm not sure about strategic primacy, but it seems to have been defensive?
In WW2 European warfare you had tactical offensive primacy (attackers could breach positions), operational offensive primacy (mass allowed breakouts), and strategic offensive primacy (attackers could take an hold strategic objectives) for most of the war in most theatres.
In WW2 Carrier warfare (1940-1943) you had tactical offensive primacy (deck strikes were essentially unstoppable), operational defensive primacy (carriers could raid, but not secure land based objectives), and strategic defensive primacy? The development of 3rd/5th Fleet in 1944 essentially flipped the first two. The advent of CICs and better flight detection meant that a carrier task force could interdict a strike group, and the development of the big blue blanket meant that a carrier task force could roll up on an island and secure it.
So we're headed to an era of what appears to be tactical defensive primacy and operational defensive primacy, and strategic (?) defensive primacy. The advent of an illuminated battlefield (like the radar based CIC) ensures tactical defensive primacy. Precision fires ensure operational defensive primacy. There's been talk here about something like the big blue blanket making operational offensive primacy possible, but that seems a year or two out.
Maybe the place for innovation now is at the strategic level. And at that level cumulative rather than sequential effects produce the most decision. So what can the west do to maximize the strategic options Ukraine has and minimize those of Russia? That seems like the question for the next year.

It's because russia is losing and the war may not be over before the end of 2024. It won't look good to release a game about the war in Ukraine as the war will still be going on.... 
I  am pro-Ukrainian just calling it like I see it.
 
I hope I am wrong and this is all over soon and in a positive way for the Ukrainian people

France will provide 50 gliding bombs with guidance system to Ukraine per month. Range up to 60 km depending on height and angle it was released at, as claimed by the manufacturer.
The system is supposed to be modular and compatible with different sizes of bombs, but the most common variant is a 250kg / 500lbs bomb. Likely that this is what will be delivered, unless the Ukrainians can strap it to a bigger one.