chris talpas

@billbindc @dan/california
Yes the video previously shown is that of a CAESAR. For me, it's almost certainly training. I will even tell you that it seems to be in Canjuers in the south of France.
What can demonstrate that it is a practice is the fact that there is no crew around the piece whereas the goal of the CAESAR is speed so the loader should be right next to the breech on the right. In addition, the aimer triggers the shot remotely thanks to a remote-controlled box. The funny thing is, I've NEVER used this remote control box and the shot was always fired from the baseplate. The advantage of firing from the baseplate is that the aimer is directly next to the control box and allows it to immediately re-aim the barrel. (and it's safe this way because he is not just behind the breech)

You can see from the video that this is a shot with probably the maximum amount of propellant charge (considering the blast from the muzzle and the height at which the front of the truck rises). In Afghanistan, we were pulling maximum load and the front was rising well a meter high. This would explain why the firing would be done from a distance (safety, training) because the load is maximum and the crew is not used to it. But in practice there is no need at all (it is even useless and a waste of time) to shoot from a remote box.
For a bit more detail and in real engagement there would be 1 to 2 loaders on the right, 1 pilot/assistant loader on the left, 1 aimer just aft left and finally the leader on the rear as seen on the video.
The range of the CAESAR is indeed 42km (by adding kits on the shell reducing the drag added on the back of the shell "RTC : Réduction de Traînée de Culot"). It can go up to 50km with rocket shells apparently (I didn't know those).
Honestly, I think Western artillery will be much superior to Russian ones. One of the comments earlier said they had special shells with comparable range but honestly the russians are already struggling to get normal shells which I'm sure not the case with the west which is full of shells specials. I'm not saying we really have a lot of them but the normal shell to special shell ratio is higher. The Russians claim a lot of things (large reserve of tanks, high-tech missiles, T-90M, T-14) but in the end, there are hardly any or they don't work. Moreover, the western artillery is very experienced by all the previous conflicts and the materials have been perfected. Even if we accept that the Russians obtain an identical range, they will not in all cases have the precision and the intelligence that Western systems use. So UKR will be better than russian in counter-battery. As a reminder, the CAESAR uses a navigation system derived from a nuclear submarine... It hits hard, far and precisely (while for the Russians I have doubts on the last point).
Finally a short video so that you can see a little bit of the handling of the vehicle.
 
 

Now maybe joining the territorial defense isn't as much a life ending event these days but a Vice President of Gazprom deciding to become a traitor to Russia and joining Ukraine is very...funny? He could have had a comfortable existence in neutrality but then again some of these killings are in Europe so I suppose Ukraine may be the safest place for those on Putin's **** list. I hope the Ukrainian government and people give any Russians (citizens) who decide to flee/defect to Ukraine the ability to become Ukrainian citizens, service for citizenship if needed.
Not really relevant to military victory, but social-politically, it lays out that Ukraine has won already and in my opinion, is quite persuasive in backing it up.
Very interesting at 20:41, about the death of Russkiy Mir (Russian World) and the rise of the Intermarium, a concept of a central European geopolitical bloc to compete with Russia and Western Europe, and it's something that makes a lot of sense to me.
Combine Belarus, Poland and Ukraine and you get 90 million people, that would outnumber Germany with 83 million. Just Poland and Ukraine alone would be population wise be competitive with Germany and out number France.
A very potent amount of human capital. Europe would be a fool to turn it away, especially after now, but I'm sure Europe will welcome Ukraine with open arms and it will be extraordinarily positive for European integrity, to have a member state who gave it's blood for Europe. A inspiring sight, one sure to renew (is renewing!) the European project.
In that sense, Putin and Russian imperialists are entirely correct, without Ukraine, there can be no Russian Empire. With his invasion, he has buried the Russian world.
 

That’s strange, because there are quite a few NATO members who are transferring their Warsaw-pact equipment to Ukraine. Do their NATO tactics transfer with the equipment, or are these NATO members prohibited from using NATO tactics with their Warsaw-pact equipment? What’s the penalty imposed if they do, and is it in Euros or Rubles? I mean it is a Rule, so there must be a fine.

kind of funny.  With a significant amount of the armaments supply being former Russian equipment from former members of the Warsaw pact... Russia isn't really fighting NATO, they are fighting the Warsaw pact.    History is weird. 😎

So this is called a Black Elephant and we have danced around it margins a lot on this forum for obvious reasons.  I am Canadian and try not to weigh in on any one nations politics - we have got enough silliness of our own and do not intend  open up this can of worms but maybe we can look at the can.
The road to this war extends across the aisle, the world does not "happen" in the 4-8 year US administration cycles. If US readers of this walk away with one thing, let it be that.  The US has enormous influence but in a highly complex system such as "war" the causes are rarely determined in a few short years of a presidential term.  More succinctly "it is not all about you", and this applies to my own country as the political noise is trying to play this one as well.  
Putin has been in power for over 20 years and the western failures leading to today are long and winding on both sides of the aisle.  No one US president is responsible, they all are - kinda comes with the job.  
As to the particular former administration, I will lean in slightly: listen to the advisors and spokes-people before this war and it gives a hint at what the actual policy might have been.  I point to Col Macgregor as one of my favorites, a former military advisor to the White House and someone I take particular issue with, not only because he has consistently been wrong but also because he has sold out on a core principle of objective military advice.  Look up and listen to his analysis and assessment on YouTube for those looking for a window at what advice would have been provided in this crisis...and I will leave it at that.  

Eerie how the mind sees patterns that are so fitting.  The tank turret looking like a skull is quite striking.  I could see a scaled version of this becoming some goth jewelry pendant.

Eerie how the mind sees patterns that are so fitting.  The tank turret looking like a skull is quite striking.  I could see a scaled version of this becoming some goth jewelry pendant.

Eerie how the mind sees patterns that are so fitting.  The tank turret looking like a skull is quite striking.  I could see a scaled version of this becoming some goth jewelry pendant.

Maybe, but based on Russian reactions I am thinking the UA pulled it off.  Why not show video?  Any number of OPSEC reasons.  For example, it could be that it wasn't a Ukrainian Neptune missile but a western missile system that we have not "declared" or how the film would show how the UA pulled it off.  Remember that most of the social media we have seen is from irregulars and territorial defence, the conventional UA is pretty tight on this stuff.

I find chance often favours the bold and righteous!  My thanks to you @Haiduk for all that you have done to shed light on this barbaric and senseless attack by Russia.  The skill and valour of the Ukrainian people are an inspiration to us all.
This could be a Midway moment where the Russian fleet is essentially neutralized as a threat to land based forces and thus shifts the initiative.  I think Ukraine has taken a decisive first step in essentially breaking up Russia's sea denial/control strategy.  And to do it in a way that is especially cheeky and symbolic  -sinking Moscow and releasing a commemorative stamp that features a Ukranian solder giving the bird to the Moskva prior to the attack.
A further consideration is that Russia is unable to redeploy additional vessels into the Black Sea due to closure of the Dardanels to warships by Turkey.
 

I find chance often favours the bold and righteous!  My thanks to you @Haiduk for all that you have done to shed light on this barbaric and senseless attack by Russia.  The skill and valour of the Ukrainian people are an inspiration to us all.
This could be a Midway moment where the Russian fleet is essentially neutralized as a threat to land based forces and thus shifts the initiative.  I think Ukraine has taken a decisive first step in essentially breaking up Russia's sea denial/control strategy.  And to do it in a way that is especially cheeky and symbolic  -sinking Moscow and releasing a commemorative stamp that features a Ukranian solder giving the bird to the Moskva prior to the attack.
A further consideration is that Russia is unable to redeploy additional vessels into the Black Sea due to closure of the Dardanels to warships by Turkey.
 

I find chance often favours the bold and righteous!  My thanks to you @Haiduk for all that you have done to shed light on this barbaric and senseless attack by Russia.  The skill and valour of the Ukrainian people are an inspiration to us all.
This could be a Midway moment where the Russian fleet is essentially neutralized as a threat to land based forces and thus shifts the initiative.  I think Ukraine has taken a decisive first step in essentially breaking up Russia's sea denial/control strategy.  And to do it in a way that is especially cheeky and symbolic  -sinking Moscow and releasing a commemorative stamp that features a Ukranian solder giving the bird to the Moskva prior to the attack.
A further consideration is that Russia is unable to redeploy additional vessels into the Black Sea due to closure of the Dardanels to warships by Turkey.
 

The Russians were much better back when they were commanded by Sean Connery...

Thanks - I'll pick those up! Got to hit the library next week to pick up Beaufre's Introduction to Strategy, so will snag those as well. I'm on a second re-read of the Expanse right now; quite good. I also think Neal Stephenson's Anathem (oddly) does a nice job of analyzing strategic and operational art. In particular, it conceives of states of the world as points in a large vector space, and operations as moving through a world-line that's connected to the outcome you desire. That sounds a bit like the decision theory you're exploring.
Reading this thread, what's jumped out to me is the analogy to the Pacific Theatre in WWII with the Russians playing the part of the Japanese.
Each chose to launch an attack driven by ideological and operational concerns rather than strategic concerns. In the same way that the Japanese plan hinged on the Americans tapping out, the Russian plan appears to have hinged on a collapse of Ukranian resistance. Like the Japanese, they had a closing window when it appeared that strategic success was within reach, driven for the Japanese by the oil embargo and for the Russians by Ukraine's gradual tilt westward.
Operationally, the Japanese launched bold offensives that they could not support. They never had control of their lines of communication, especially after the USN figured out how to make torpedoes that actually exploded. The degradation of our submarines on the Japanese merchant navy are similar to the NLAW equipped light infantry wreaking havoc in the Russian LOCs. Like the Japanese, the Russians are penny-packeting troops into operations that have no momentum. Compare the repeated company sized attacks near Kiev with the flow of 500ish troops at a time into Guadalcanal on destroyers. Like the Americans, who carefully husbanded their (temporarily irreplaceable) naval assets until either strategic necessity (Coral Sea) or a huge tactical advantage (Midway) made their collective risk more palatable. Like the Americans, the Ukrainians have denied the Russians the decisive battle the appear to want, rather focusing on small attritional engagement and friction.
Time will tell whether Russian operational plans adapt in a way that Japanese operational plans did not.
Tactically, non-obvious factors in both Russian and Japanese formations turned out very important -- Japanese ships were light on AAA, had inferior (if any) CICs, and had poor damage control facilities and procedures, all of which turned out to be really important. Russian armored vehicles appear to have insufficient flotation and poor mobility maintenance, which appears to be really important.
Beyond that, American information supremacy eventually tilted carrier combat decisively in favor of the Americans, who could deliver CAP formations to just the right place to disrupt Japanese attacks. Similarly, Ukranian information dominance (?) is allowing them to attrit Russian formations and LOCs in ways that appear to seriously disrupt Russian attacks.
It's really bewildering to try and make sense of. But thinking in terms of the Pacific has helped me some.

Not super crazy in the context of when the ship was built. IIRC in the 1980s the ability to track-while-scan was relatively new and pretty expensive. The Ticonderoga's and Aegis was built basically to solve this in the USN. The Moskva had a different role in the Soviet Navy and was more about delivering the killing blow to a CV at range. 
The crazy part is that in 40 years Moscow never decided to pull the trigger on the upgrades and decided, apparently, to leave it with much of the old installed equipment she launched with. It makes the money fire (literally!) Kuznetsov even more scandalous in hindsight. Shes in such bad shape that she has to sit out the war, BUT they've already poured a fortune into keeping her (barely) afloat and giving her major rebuilds. Imagine if that gone into upgrading the Moskva a phased radar instead. Or even just in a few more AWACs with naval search radar. 

Russian Empire
Born 2 November 1721
Died 13 April 2022
Cause.  Embarrassment
This is just crazy.  Man I'd love to be a fly on the wall at the kremlin to see Putin's reaction.  Zelensky should arrange for a stamp to be sent.  "would you like a little salt in your wound?"

How would a policy of neutrality towards Ukraine have enabled it to defend against Russia?
2014+ Ukrainian Army was slaughtered by Putin.
Western support built what is working today. Without western Intel, all these ambushes would not be happening. Without western financing, no Ukrainian drones would fly, no NVGs, no nothing. Without western leadership the Ukrainian army would still fight with Soviet doctrine and lose.
What we are seeing right now is a result NOT of Minsk and Putin appeasement but of US/UK policy to bolster Ukraine in case of evident Russian aggression, despite concern of "worsening relation with Russia".
He does not care about economics. He does not care about his or our People. He cares about the past and everyone west of him is an enemy complicit in that "greatest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century" to quote Putin himself.
Neutrality towards Ukraine would have in fact put Putin exactly where he wanted to be.

Wonderful. Every russian ammo depot should look like this...
 
 

Putting aside Boris Johnson’s own political motives, I think his appearance strolling the streets of Kyiv with President Zelensky projected a powerful message of strength and courage.  This beacon of hope, Kyiv, which fiercely resisted and drove back the dark forces of Sauron, is being shown to the world as still being free.
But the flame of freedom needs to remain fuelled; I’m glad the Zelensky was not left empty handed.  I thank the Peoples of the UK for their support of Ukraine.
It is fitting for the Brit’s to up the aid ante by now offering the means to project counter sea-denial operations.  No longer will the Russians operate on the Black Sea with impunity!
This expands their ability to cause Ivan some pain.  Not only Russia’s naval forces but couldn’t merchant traffic even be called fair game.
Fitting too that it be done by a NATO member with their own sovereign nuclear force.
The frog continues to slowly boil.
 

Already out of likes, So I will just say thank you Haiduk. Glory to Ukraine!

Putting aside Boris Johnson’s own political motives, I think his appearance strolling the streets of Kyiv with President Zelensky projected a powerful message of strength and courage.  This beacon of hope, Kyiv, which fiercely resisted and drove back the dark forces of Sauron, is being shown to the world as still being free.
But the flame of freedom needs to remain fuelled; I’m glad the Zelensky was not left empty handed.  I thank the Peoples of the UK for their support of Ukraine.
It is fitting for the Brit’s to up the aid ante by now offering the means to project counter sea-denial operations.  No longer will the Russians operate on the Black Sea with impunity!
This expands their ability to cause Ivan some pain.  Not only Russia’s naval forces but couldn’t merchant traffic even be called fair game.
Fitting too that it be done by a NATO member with their own sovereign nuclear force.
The frog continues to slowly boil.
 

Ahah, thanks, you make me blush ) I would be a hero, if did this from Chernihiv or Kharkiv, but Kyiv was relatively safe place, despite heavy sounds of artillety and MLRS and sometime missiles booms in the sky 

Want to add my thanks as well for the excellent analysis provided by TheCapt and Steve

Want to add my thanks as well for the excellent analysis provided by TheCapt and Steve