chris talpas

I think history will reflect favourably on Biden.  He has effectively lead the western response and the sharing of intelligence on Russian intentions prior to the Feb invasion blunted any surprise.  The courage and determination of the Ukrainian people have been an inspiration.  They have earned their place in the drivers seat of their self determination.
Zelensky, at least to this external observer, has been a great leader. He has been relentless in his pleas for support to the world.  He is held in high regard amongst the public.
 

I think history will reflect favourably on Biden.  He has effectively lead the western response and the sharing of intelligence on Russian intentions prior to the Feb invasion blunted any surprise.  The courage and determination of the Ukrainian people have been an inspiration.  They have earned their place in the drivers seat of their self determination.
Zelensky, at least to this external observer, has been a great leader. He has been relentless in his pleas for support to the world.  He is held in high regard amongst the public.
 

I think history will reflect favourably on Biden.  He has effectively lead the western response and the sharing of intelligence on Russian intentions prior to the Feb invasion blunted any surprise.  The courage and determination of the Ukrainian people have been an inspiration.  They have earned their place in the drivers seat of their self determination.
Zelensky, at least to this external observer, has been a great leader. He has been relentless in his pleas for support to the world.  He is held in high regard amongst the public.
 

I think UKR will, as Steve mentioned, regroup for a short bit, but it will also be busy.  I think UKR will begin 'shaping the war'.  They'll work to threaten things Putin values the most, getting Putin to reinforce there.  Then while he's protecting his face they'll kick him in the nuts or knees.  Like w the Kharkiv operation.  But they'll keep at least some pressure in multiple places. 
About Biden, as per above:  Let's credit all the leaders who had the courage and vision to do the right thing and convinced the wavering ones to join in.  Biden, B Johnson UK, Poland, and others -- the ones who worked diligently and relentlessly, mostly behind the scenes, to build the huge coalition of support for UKR.  The sanctions that no one thought possible.  The huge amounts of arms and aid.  We were all later and less than needed in material support early in this war, but credit and honor to those that led the way.

I do think future historians will see Biden as a pivotal figure for international affairs. If for no other reason than the fact that he was able to assemble a competent team of professionals who could do their jobs in the background.

But it is ultimately the courage of the Ukrainian people who will secure their own freedom and liberty. My hat is off to them, for they have shown themselves capable of determining their own future.
 
Cometh the hour, cometh the man. He has done a yeoman's job representing Ukrainian interests on the world stage.

I think history will reflect favourably on Biden.  He has effectively lead the western response and the sharing of intelligence on Russian intentions prior to the Feb invasion blunted any surprise.  The courage and determination of the Ukrainian people have been an inspiration.  They have earned their place in the drivers seat of their self determination.
Zelensky, at least to this external observer, has been a great leader. He has been relentless in his pleas for support to the world.  He is held in high regard amongst the public.
 

I think history will reflect favourably on Biden.  He has effectively lead the western response and the sharing of intelligence on Russian intentions prior to the Feb invasion blunted any surprise.  The courage and determination of the Ukrainian people have been an inspiration.  They have earned their place in the drivers seat of their self determination.
Zelensky, at least to this external observer, has been a great leader. He has been relentless in his pleas for support to the world.  He is held in high regard amongst the public.
 

I think history will reflect favourably on Biden.  He has effectively lead the western response and the sharing of intelligence on Russian intentions prior to the Feb invasion blunted any surprise.  The courage and determination of the Ukrainian people have been an inspiration.  They have earned their place in the drivers seat of their self determination.
Zelensky, at least to this external observer, has been a great leader. He has been relentless in his pleas for support to the world.  He is held in high regard amongst the public.
 

I think history will reflect favourably on Biden.  He has effectively lead the western response and the sharing of intelligence on Russian intentions prior to the Feb invasion blunted any surprise.  The courage and determination of the Ukrainian people have been an inspiration.  They have earned their place in the drivers seat of their self determination.
Zelensky, at least to this external observer, has been a great leader. He has been relentless in his pleas for support to the world.  He is held in high regard amongst the public.
 

Alot of brave people have died in trenches, and in worse ways. Many of them had not the slightest plan of being a soldier on 2/23. I think we should send them every single piece of gear they can physically crew to try to keep that number as low as possible.

I think history will reflect favourably on Biden.  He has effectively lead the western response and the sharing of intelligence on Russian intentions prior to the Feb invasion blunted any surprise.  The courage and determination of the Ukrainian people have been an inspiration.  They have earned their place in the drivers seat of their self determination.
Zelensky, at least to this external observer, has been a great leader. He has been relentless in his pleas for support to the world.  He is held in high regard amongst the public.
 

I think history will reflect favourably on Biden.  He has effectively lead the western response and the sharing of intelligence on Russian intentions prior to the Feb invasion blunted any surprise.  The courage and determination of the Ukrainian people have been an inspiration.  They have earned their place in the drivers seat of their self determination.
Zelensky, at least to this external observer, has been a great leader. He has been relentless in his pleas for support to the world.  He is held in high regard amongst the public.
 

I think history will reflect favourably on Biden.  He has effectively lead the western response and the sharing of intelligence on Russian intentions prior to the Feb invasion blunted any surprise.  The courage and determination of the Ukrainian people have been an inspiration.  They have earned their place in the drivers seat of their self determination.
Zelensky, at least to this external observer, has been a great leader. He has been relentless in his pleas for support to the world.  He is held in high regard amongst the public.
 

I think history will reflect favourably on Biden.  He has effectively lead the western response and the sharing of intelligence on Russian intentions prior to the Feb invasion blunted any surprise.  The courage and determination of the Ukrainian people have been an inspiration.  They have earned their place in the drivers seat of their self determination.
Zelensky, at least to this external observer, has been a great leader. He has been relentless in his pleas for support to the world.  He is held in high regard amongst the public.
 

I think history will reflect favourably on Biden.  He has effectively lead the western response and the sharing of intelligence on Russian intentions prior to the Feb invasion blunted any surprise.  The courage and determination of the Ukrainian people have been an inspiration.  They have earned their place in the drivers seat of their self determination.
Zelensky, at least to this external observer, has been a great leader. He has been relentless in his pleas for support to the world.  He is held in high regard amongst the public.
 

I think history will reflect favourably on Biden.  He has effectively lead the western response and the sharing of intelligence on Russian intentions prior to the Feb invasion blunted any surprise.  The courage and determination of the Ukrainian people have been an inspiration.  They have earned their place in the drivers seat of their self determination.
Zelensky, at least to this external observer, has been a great leader. He has been relentless in his pleas for support to the world.  He is held in high regard amongst the public.
 

I think history will reflect favourably on Biden.  He has effectively lead the western response and the sharing of intelligence on Russian intentions prior to the Feb invasion blunted any surprise.  The courage and determination of the Ukrainian people have been an inspiration.  They have earned their place in the drivers seat of their self determination.
Zelensky, at least to this external observer, has been a great leader. He has been relentless in his pleas for support to the world.  He is held in high regard amongst the public.
 

I think history will reflect favourably on Biden.  He has effectively lead the western response and the sharing of intelligence on Russian intentions prior to the Feb invasion blunted any surprise.  The courage and determination of the Ukrainian people have been an inspiration.  They have earned their place in the drivers seat of their self determination.
Zelensky, at least to this external observer, has been a great leader. He has been relentless in his pleas for support to the world.  He is held in high regard amongst the public.
 

In Canada, on this our Remembrance Day - besides remembering the sacrifice of Canadians in various conflicts and peacekeeping missions, I am also very aware of the huge loss of life in service of the Ukrainian soldiers who fought for their homeland and their people.  I am reminded all the time.  In Manitoba, our province has a immense Ukrainian Canadian  population and I can't go anywhere without seeing Ukrainian flags everywhere.  And a lot of Ukrainian Canadians returned to Ukraine to fight for their ancestral homeland.   Some will return home to Canada some day, others will not. The sad reality of war.
So on this Remembrance Day, I raise my stein as in past Remembrance Days and intone that simple ancient Norse toast - "To Our Honored Dead!"    I include all Ukrainian soldiers who have lost their lives thus far in that toast.   They have truly earned entry into the Halls of Valhalla.
 Sláva Ukrayíni!
 

Or 3.  You and the analyst were (are) basing your conclusions on incomplete understanding - both parties saw what they wanted to see - and when the coin landed, your predictions turned out to be more correct.  None of this is particularly good news as analysis is all about focusing on what you get wrong and digging into that to get a better understanding.  Self-validation creates a reinforcing effect that leads future analysis off a cliff because "you already have it all figured out".  I would say the mainstream analysis before this war did exactly that, but that does not mean you have developed a universal or unifying theory that will inform the next war based on "see, Russia Sucks".  The missing piece as far as I can see is a detailed understanding of "how and why" they are sucking, which I firmly believe the "Russia just Sucks" camp is vastly over-simplifying.
Ok, off the mark, do you have any supporting analysis or post-action to back any of this up?  Is this your perspective of events or does it align with post-war analysis?  If so, well ok, but here is some counter-narratives:
https://nsiteam.com/social/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/NS-D-10367-Learning-Lessons-from-Ukraine-Conflict-Final.pdf  I point to section 3 specifically (pgs 8-13)
https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR1400/RR1498/RAND_RR1498.pdf  Pages 43-45 cover the period from May 14 - Feb 15 when conventional RA forces were fully engaged to stop the failing of their proxy Donbas forces from LNR/DPR - you can see how quickly the war shifted once the BTGs got engaged and specifically "Although artillery skirmishes continued, both sides took a break to rearm, train, and consolidate between September 5, 2014, and January 13, 2015, when Russia launched a second offensive. Following a second encirclement and defeat at Debaltseve, Ukraine signed the Minsk II ceasefire on February 12, 2015, with terms highly favorable for Moscow." (p45) This Rand document is fascinating in hindsight (note Kofman as lead author) as it gets a lot right in forecasting the weakness of Russian strategic assumptions, particularly in the political and information warfare domain.  It gets a lot wrong with respect to the potential of hybrid warfare, noting it was "inconsequential" when conventional forces arrived on the battlefield (p 70) when the RA crushed the Ukrainian defence.  I think that conclusion led mainstream thinkers down the wrong path at the start of this war.
https://mwi.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Analyzing-the-Russian-Way-of-War.pdf  Interesting peice on the link between Georgia 2008 and Ukraine - punchline the RA learned a lot from Georgia and underwent reforms which led to 2014 success...but not so much in 2022.
And finally the peice by Karber - the guy actually got so close he got hit in an MLRS strike:
https://prodev2go.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/rus-ukr-lessons-draft.pdf
In this peice Karber goes on at length at the effectiveness of the BTG and the emerging "Russian way of War", I know the US military took this pretty seriously, as did we as on paper the BTG could outrange any of our BattleGroups TFs.  We then saw similar trends in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and the mainstream estimate was they would unfold in Ukraine in 2022 - nothing on "Russia Sucks".
So I do not agree that the post-war analysis nor the facts on the ground (see Rand study) support the idea that RA sub-par performance was observed.  The fact that a pretty modest interjection of RA forces in Aug 14 at Ilovaisk ("4000 troops") dealt a major reversal to the UA, and then the decisive defeat of the UA at Debaltseve in Jan 15 forced Ukraine to the negotiation table to sign a pretty bad deal for them (Minsk II).  There is plenty of evidence that the LNR/DPR separatist forces sucked, but Russia was trying very hard to keep a lid on the whole thing for deniability reasons.  Nothing in any of these assessments/analysis (and there are plenty more - Anx A of the first link has two pages of references) point to the pre-ordained abysmal performance seen in this war.
I am not sure what sources you were pulling from to come to your conclusions; however, it might just be possible that 1) all the above mainstream post-war analysis is wrong, and 2) whatever sources you were using were correct, and Russia really did suck...but - the end-state does not support that perspective either.  Regardless of tactical performance Russia achieved pretty much the impossible, it fully annexed the Crimea and over half the Donbas region without a reaction from the West.  The more I read into this, I strongly suspect that Ukraine 2014 was Putin's "Czechoslovakia" moment and he convinced himself the west was so divided (divisions he helped make worse) that we would sit back and let Ukraine fall, so go "full Poland" in 2022.  There is no way to spin 2014 was anything other than a Russian "win" both on the battlefield and on the political stage based on how things unfolded on the ground.
I am afraid that if this served as the foundation of how you saw the outcomes of this war then you too were working with incomplete concepts.  If you had gone into 2014 with "Russia Sucks due to Georgia 2008 = they will lose" you would have been completely wrong.  Bringing that theory to this war does not make it anymore correct - the theory found a war where it made more sense, but that does not make it a workable general theory.  This would be akin to developing a theory "The US Sucks at War" based on its performance in Korea (and there was plenty of evidence in the first year) and then predicting Vietnam as a US loss because "the US Sucks at War" - this glosses over so much nuance and context as to be nearly meaningless.  The mainstream analysis went the other way - "Russia is Terrifying in 2014, so they must be terrifying in 2022", which is not any less incorrect and shame on people who get paid for this work.
So what?  "Russia Sucks at War" is not a workable or even accurate foundational theory in my opinion.  It is inconsistent with observed phenomenon in previous conflicts and fails to take into account the complexities of context and evolutions of warfare over time.  "Russia Sucks at This War", how badly and why is worth exploring in depth, not the least of which is how much the UA/western backed warfare is forcing the RA to "suck".  The very tricky part is to try and distill these reasons into trends that may continue and influence the next war.  There is significant risk in porting over all the observations from this war to the next one e.g. Tanks are Dead - I cannot say if tanks are dead, they appear somewhat out of place in this war but we need to understand "why" before we can say if the next war will see the same thing.  However, I think we do agree that Russian failures and Ukrainian success do not operate in glorious isolation of each other - they have a shared causality with each other.  And the study of that relationship does not neatly sum up to "Russia Sucks", at least not from my point of view. 
 

Two points of view (ATGM operator and drone) of the same episode - Stugna-P hit Russian or DPR tank near Pavlivka, Donetsk oblast, where Russians try to attack: 
 Enemy tank got a missile, but was lucky - the crew could extinguish fire, but the second missile has exploded the tank - throwing into the flight enemy driver
In short, Russian operation for capturing of Pavlivka and Vuhledar has been developing in this way (according to Russian point of view)
Day 1: yo-ho-ho! We surprised theese Ukie-pigs! Our heroical DPR troops advanced on 3,5 km, we already mop-up Pavlivka, Ukies can't bring reinforcements - our arty controls all ways from Vuhledar! Soon Pavlika will fall and we will go to Vuhledar!
Day 2: we have seized southern and south-eastern part of village, Ukies risist yet, but their resistance haі been weakening. Now Russian marines in action! High Command offered a Hero of Russia for those company commander, whose company will burst first to Vuhledar!
Day3: well, we seized almost all village, but couldn't yet push Ukies behind the river (it divides Pavlivka on more larger southern and lesser northern part). This is unfair - damned Ukies sat in Vuhledar on the dominant height and adjust own arty, we can't supply troops because this and because damned mud.    
Day 4: either we will produce 122 mm ammo, or all country will produce zinc coffins. For two days of fighting for this damned Pavlivka our Marines lost more people, than for all First Chechen War... Our offensive was premature and unprepared. This is unfair! Damned Ukies wait for suitable weather to atatck in that time we attack, when theese damned rains and mud! Why our commander didn't attack Vuhledar from flanks and directed us to assault Pavlivka!
 
Real situation from UKR side (according to Pavlivka settlers): in day 1 DPR pushed our troops from gardens SE from village and took two farms on S and SE. On day 2 they could seize several houses in SE part. Day 3 - clashes, no advance. Day 4 - UKR troops pushed enemy back from SE of village and likely from farms. Gardens, according to loclas, now is grey zone.  

time to start dealing with Swiss banking laws then.  How neutral are they really? hhmmm 

Hear hear!  F YES!  Way to cut thru the nonsense Artkin!  
What they heck is the dang military budget for if not for what is happening right now.  And we are blessed that we can do this w/o US citizens dying.  Worth every cent.  Putin chose to threaten the world in the stupidest way possible and thus we are able to fight back in a very direct way.

I would like to restress the corruption of our politicians. We spend
900 Billion Dollars
on our military every single year. Russia is 1 of 2 challengers of peace, and is currently close to defeat.
It was paid for with a pitiful fraction of this enormous amount of money.

That's what I call a ballsy move!
Pilots will be pilots. 😁