Fenris

Kevin is that you?
Re the forever war comment I think there's a couple of points that make this quite different to previous interventions.
Ukraine wants the help it's receiving and wants western partners to be involved. This time russia is directly involved and not sitting safely behind a proxy. Diminishing russia's ability to be a general pain the *** on the world stage is a big win for everyone (except russia). Better to spend treasure than your own servicemen's lives And those are just the obvious ones.

Kevin is that you?
Re the forever war comment I think there's a couple of points that make this quite different to previous interventions.
Ukraine wants the help it's receiving and wants western partners to be involved. This time russia is directly involved and not sitting safely behind a proxy. Diminishing russia's ability to be a general pain the *** on the world stage is a big win for everyone (except russia). Better to spend treasure than your own servicemen's lives And those are just the obvious ones.

I read the newsarticle Seedorf posted that somehow claimed new kind of evidence surfaced but everything in there was identical to the investigative report that was published in germany more in depth roughly a  month ago and was discussed here too. The german investigative report was very onesided and ignored a lot of evidence  that pointed in russian direction and it failed to plausibly establish how the Andromeda could do the northsteam sabotage.  The only  new "fact" in the dutch article was that traces of the explosive HMX was found at the site of sabotage. I am no forensic expert but there are different reasons I would be highly sceptical of this fact. But even if true. HMX would be one  of the most probable explosives that one would use for such a bombing by diver. And if the Andromeda was a false Flag, then it would be very easy for the perpetrator to plant the same kind of explosive that was used in the bombings.
You say the complexity of the operation was overestimated. Do you have any idea what kind of complexity is needed to do this kind of operation? I work in UXO,UXB, ERB disposal in the northsea, baltic sea and rivers. I work on specialised ships and with divers (most of them  with navy background) that do exactly this kind of work that would be needed for the northstream sabotage.
The complexity of this operation is a LOT more than just being able to do the dive. The equipment needed just to do the simple dive ignoring all of the  other specialised equipment: on the ships I work on this equipment is located in  containers that are half as big as the Andromeda. All those gastanks alone do take a lot of room. You need a lot more of those for a deep sea diving suit/ hard-hat than you would for a simple diving suit.
The first problem the divers  had to overcome is to find the pipelines and then the right locations for the bombing. This alone is a very big problem. To locate those you need a depth sonar or a submersible. Good luck instaling those on the Andromeda.  In those depths it is pitch black. Those divers have to work completely blind. They are trained to do so but they still need instruction  by those one the ship  with exactly this kind of equipment that the Andromeda lacks. And on top of that they did this on the same day at  three different locations. And they did the dive on a very instable plattform which means high chance of death.
Then there is the question of  the explosives. The theory that was presented in the investigative report was that only a small amount was used.  There exist seismic profiles of those explosions  and those hint  at  a  bigger amount of explosives used. It is not conclusive evidence but it points in another direction.
Not one of the divers I work with thinks its realistically possible to do the northstream sabotage from the  Andromeda in a short amount of time.
There is more  I could write but it is already late here I have to work very early tomorrow.
One thing I have to say. The reporting on northsteam really does remind me on the reporting in german media about MH17 after it happend. The media tried to be "neutral" but it was mostly pointing in ukrainian direction and sometimes it was just reciting russian propaganda. Even after Bellingcat could show exactly what BUK was used by which unit german media ignored this evidence. It was only after the dutch reports with conclusive evidence were published that the reporting did change.
 

Heh, the details paint a slightly different picture IMO. I don't think the MoD was actually wrong.  The 25th CAA was established a couple of months ago and wasn't due to finish it's training until December IIRC... So this reserve has only just been raised and did not exist at the start of the offensive.
I'm hopeful this means their usefulness is quite limited.
 
 

ISW today does a lot of hedging it's bets on how things are going.  Quite a bit of evidence given of a deteriorating defensive situation around the salient but no definitive statement yet.
Worth a read.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-24-2023

Our tanker told Leo2 has strange thing with a center of mass and in couple with overweight design and insufficient engine power for this weight, the normal fast driving with forward facing of the gun can lead to such effect as on the photo with teared off turret and other mess.   

ISW today does a lot of hedging it's bets on how things are going.  Quite a bit of evidence given of a deteriorating defensive situation around the salient but no definitive statement yet.
Worth a read.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-24-2023

I always loved that painting.

Sorry.
 

Sorry.
 

Sorry.
 

Sorry.
 

Sorry.
 

Hromadske report with vision, interviews of life in a UKR artillery unit.  UKR to ENG auto-translate works with this one.
 

Hromadske report with vision, interviews of life in a UKR artillery unit.  UKR to ENG auto-translate works with this one.
 

Hromadske report with vision, interviews of life in a UKR artillery unit.  UKR to ENG auto-translate works with this one.
 

😎

Local Sevastopol TG claims, refering to sources in administration and Black Sea Fleet, that according last information there were 2 maritime drones and 8 missiles. UKR aviation resource hints there was airstrike, so Storm Shadow/SCALP were used. Russians initially reported about combined strike of converted S-200 and Storm Shadows. According to last info (unofficial for now) only two drones and two missiles were intercepted.
Number of victims of workers raised to 11 killed and 31 wounded. Landing ship and submarine allegedly destroyed, two more ships damaged, but level of damage is unknown.
More, after the strike, there was information about UKR diversion group operates in Sevastopol,so police and Army patrols were directed to find them. Police passed one of army patrols as sabateurs and opened fire. In result of skirmish 3 soldiers and  1 policeman were killed.

Shipyard on fire in Sevastopol post Ukrainian strike
 

Shipyard on fire in Sevastopol post Ukrainian strike
 

Shipyard on fire in Sevastopol post Ukrainian strike
 

More re Sevastopol strike - geo-locating is suggesting it's the dry dock that's been hit (may be too good to be true - wait and see).
 
Edit - Check this twit for more pics and explosions
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love
 
Edit 2 - Claims to be