How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Letter from Prague]

42 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

We all know where this goes….https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdenrg7wy5ro

 

[Letter from Prague]

37 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Sure. Being deliberately cynical: That rule based global order is basically there to protect and facilitate our business models. Europe cannot and will not afford to go against the USA and China. In that case the global order would be gone, anyway, from our point of view. That we'd move closer to China is IMHO a given. I don't know exactly how Russia would fit into this dynamic - I'm unsure if China would prefer a weaker or a stronger Russia for that matter - but as I said. The voices calling for some sort of normalization with Russia will get louder in case of major trouble with the USA.

The voices are already there, just listen to Orban, Fico, AfD, the oligarch dude who takes over my country next year ...

edit: actually no need for a list, there's at least one party like that in every EU country.

Edited 18 hours ago by Letter from Prague

[The_Capt]

51 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Sure. Being deliberately cynical: That rule based global order is basically there to protect and facilitate our business models. Europe cannot and will not afford to go against the USA and China. In that case the global order would be gone, anyway, from our point of view. That we'd move closer to China is IMHO a given. I don't know exactly how Russia would fit into this dynamic - I'm unsure if China would prefer a weaker or a stronger Russia for that matter - but as I said. The voices calling for some sort of normalization with Russia will get louder in case of major trouble with the USA.

It stands to reason they want a weaker Russia, but stable. China is playing a much larger game. They don’t want to shred the global order, they want to re-negotiate it from a position of strength. The last one was written while they were basically broken and did not include them in any meaningful way, except cheap labour.

So a Europe pulled closer to China and cooler on the US is a good thing. As is a weaker Russia selling them energy for cheap. That they will re-sell to Europe for more. The US looks and feels unstable and divided, but still potent. From a grand strategy point of view this is a very delicate time for China. I fundamentally disagree with Brands and company that China is going to make any sudden moves in the next five years. They are going to keep the pressure and pulling up, take the hits they have to and wait. If Taiwan falls it will likely be at a time when we are for too distracted to really care.

For the US, the problem is not Trump. It is the political sentiment that created Trump - he is a symptom, not a cause. That cause needs to be addressed but I am not sure how. If that cause continues to eat away at the soul of the US, it will only be a matter of time.

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, Letter from Prague said:

The voices are already there, just listen to Orban, Fico, AfD, the oligarch dude who takes over my country next year ...

edit: actually no need for a list, there's at least one party like that in every EU country.

Of course the voices are already there. Otherwise they couldn't get louder.

[sburke]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

We all know where this goes….https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdenrg7wy5ro

 

Giant sheep.. for umm err trophy hunting!  yeah that's it!  No other reason for altering sheep, no siree, not at all... just trophy hunting...  Freakin Montana....

[Carolus]

8 minutes ago, sburke said:

Giant sheep.. for umm err trophy hunting!  yeah that's it!  No other reason for altering sheep, no siree, not at all... just trophy hunting...  Freakin Montana....

Kadyrov is suddenly very interested.

[dan/california]

20 minutes ago, sburke said:

Giant sheep.. for umm err trophy hunting!  yeah that's it!  No other reason for altering sheep, no siree, not at all... just trophy hunting...  Freakin Montana....

i was going to make an ateempt at a joke about where Putin might go with this...

11 minutes ago, Carolus said:

Kadyrov is suddenly very interested.

But then Carolus had go bring up the Chechens and now I just want to go hide under the bed. The mind reels!

Edited 15 hours ago by dan/california

[Kinophile]

42 minutes ago, dan/california said:

i was going to make an ateempt at a joke about where Putin might go with this...

But then Carolus had go bring up the Chechens and now I just want to go hide under the bed. The mind reels!

I think @The_Capt now has the "hidden love" plot reveal /twist for his Priggy- Putin romance novels. 

Yes, novels, plural. 

Edited 14 hours ago by Kinophile

[acrashb]

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

We all know where this goes….https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdenrg7wy5ro

Мобильные деревенские бордели

 

Edited 13 hours ago by acrashb

[NamEndedAllen]

9 hours ago, Butschi said:

What NATO minus US (approx. Europe) would and could do long term depends, besides on inner fault lines (pro-Russian and anti-war factions), on how antagonistic Trump behaves. If we see more economical blackmailing etc. Europe will move closer to China (more or less by necessity) and voices that call for normalization of economic relations with Russia will certainly get louder.

Yes indeed!  It  is far wiser to remain skeptical about all the outcomes, relationships, and realignments of a Trump regime return. And at least not fixate on a positive or neutral one. As in, “Well, Europe will take up the slack AND that will keep Ukraine defensively viable”. Why? Because we are inevitably leaving out the entire morale impact on Ukraine, and on individual European nations - rather than assuming Europe a whole.  And of course the morale of Russia. Especially if Trump and Putin consummate their “get a freaking room” relationship!

There are many domino effects. We have little reason to forecast Trump *strengthening* NATO. He has already stated what would be a de facto standing down, and questioning collective defense Section Five. In the event:
* We can’t assume either outcome by Europe - a stepping up to the Eastern threat, or a breaking into factions.
*We can’t know the economic impact of Trump loosening or even dropping many of the US sanctions against Russia…or simply not enforcing them with a wink wink, nod nod.
* We can’t know whether Trump would join with Putin in making a formal take it or leave it “peace” plan. With strings attached that punish European trade as well as NATO if the EU nations and Britain don’t sign on. Trump already publicly restated Putin’s stance on Ukraine. “It isn’t a country”.
* We can’t know the full impact of a very likely Republican Senate along with Trump in power. What sorts of agreements may be permitted to lapse, or new legislation forced on the House if it turns to a Dem majority (better than 50/50 chance). Or embraced by a Russia enamored House majority

Perhaps most importantly, we really cannot know the impact on the Ukrainian population of an American withdrawal. How the military leadership reacts to the loss of the invaluable C5ISRT that has been so crucial for years now. How a weary public sees the fight for or abandoning of the occupied oblasts. Whether a Presidential election is called. 

Lastly, we cannot know how the USA population will react regardless of who prevails in the election and how they prevail. Everyone must know how raw the nerves are in the USA. How extreme the everyday rhetoric has gotten. Maybe everyone will calm down in a few months. Maybe they won’t. But a USA strongly focused within and pre-occupied with its internal inflammatory issues opens spaces abroad for both mischief and realignments. So it’s relatively easy to imagine all sorts of scenarios. Maybe all the various issues will turn out positively. Maybe some will and some won’t. Maybe one or two possibilities overshadow all else and reason does not prevail.

All in all, I think it wise to avoid embracing or betting on any of this for now.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Yes indeed!  It  is far wiser to remain skeptical about all the outcomes, relationships, and realignments of a Trump regime return. And at least not fixate on a positive or neutral one. As in, “Well, Europe will take up the slack AND that will keep Ukraine defensively viable”. Why? Because we are inevitably leaving out the entire morale impact on Ukraine, and on individual European nations - rather than assuming Europe a whole.  And of course the morale of Russia. Especially if Trump and Putin consummate their “get a freaking room” relationship!

There are many domino effects. We have little reason to forecast Trump *strengthening* NATO. He has already stated what would be a de facto standing down, and questioning collective defense Section Five. In the event:
* We can’t assume either outcome by Europe - a stepping up to the Eastern threat, or a breaking into factions.
*We can’t know the economic impact of Trump loosening or even dropping many of the US sanctions against Russia…or simply not enforcing them with a wink wink, nod nod.
* We can’t know whether Trump would join with Putin in making a formal take it or leave it “peace” plan. With strings attached that punish European trade as well as NATO if the EU nations and Britain don’t sign on. Trump already publicly restated Putin’s stance on Ukraine. “It isn’t a country”.
* We can’t know the full impact of a very likely Republican Senate along with Trump in power. What sorts of agreements may be permitted to lapse, or new legislation forced on the House if it turns to a Dem majority (better than 50/50 chance). Or embraced by a Russia enamored House majority

Perhaps most importantly, we really cannot know the impact on the Ukrainian population of an American withdrawal. How the military leadership reacts to the loss of the invaluable C5ISRT that has been so crucial for years now. How a weary public sees the fight for or abandoning of the occupied oblasts. Whether a Presidential election is called. 

Lastly, we cannot know how the USA population will react regardless of who prevails in the election and how they prevail. Everyone must know how raw the nerves are in the USA. How extreme the everyday rhetoric has gotten. Maybe everyone will calm down in a few months. Maybe they won’t. But a USA strongly focused within and pre-occupied with its internal inflammatory issues opens spaces abroad for both mischief and realignments. So it’s relatively easy to imagine all sorts of scenarios. Maybe all the various issues will turn out positively. Maybe some will and some won’t. Maybe one or two possibilities overshadow all else and reason does not prevail.

All in all, I think it wise to avoid embracing or betting on any of this for now.

Voting though...

[Battlefront.com]

Looks like the Russian frontline units are starting to experience shell shortages due to Ukraine's deep strikes:

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/39907

Quote

According to an Estonian intelligence assessment the strike by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the Toropets depot on Sept. 18, could have destroyed as much as two months’ worth of Russian artillery ammunition along with Iskander and Tochka-U, 122mm rockets and aerial bombs.

This is something that goes to show that even if you're fighting every day in the frontlines that doesn't mean you know everything:

Quote

“But even if this happened, if some of the warehouses were destroyed, it doesn’t mean that our factories suddenly stopped. The factories work every day – day and night. This ammunition goes somewhere.” The milblogger then asked, “Where does this ammunition go? Why is there so few of it for the troops?”

Because, numbnuts, logistics doesn't work like that even in countries with excellent capabilities.  Logistics nodes aren't set up for the Hell of it.  Logically they are there to perform a critical function within the larger supply chain, and logically if they are blown up that's a function they can't perform.  The function ultimately being facilitating the timely delivery of shells in the volume needed to sustain combat ops.  In case he's reading, the logic is the nodes provide a service, the service is efficient delivery of shells, some nodes are now missing, therefore it is reasonable to expect a decrease in the efficiency of delivering shells.

I am hoping that we can start to notice the impact of the shell shortage from our armchairs sometime real soon.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Not a very comforting article talking about how the US military is largely blowing off studying, not to mention implementing, the lessons offered from the Ukraine war:

Quote

If summarized, the main reason for such, let's say, academic indifference, is that, according to American military analysts, each conflict is unique, and therefore, there is no pressing need to single out and rely on the lessons drawn from Ukraine’s war with russia.

https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/us_military_analysts_do_little_to_no_study_of_ukraine_war_and_they_have_reasons-12053.html

The possible obvious reason for this is a combination of institutional lethargy and not wanting to see where it leads to.    We've talked about this very thing here, in particular when it comes to AFVs.  Because once you go down the road of exploring implications, well... things can be messy for people's careers.  "Yes Colonel, I read your report that a few hundred billions have been spent on the wrong stuff.  That's good work.  Now, let's talk about your transfer to the Arctic where your services are needed next..."

Steve

[chuckdyke]

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

in particular when it comes to AFVs. 

A little like "The tank is only temporary, we still need horses for the pursuit!" Slow to change is nothing new. 

[Silentkilarz]

Well, didnt have that on my bingo card this year.

[hcrof]

I guess it will come as no suprise that Moscow continues to not be interested in negotiations, particularly because of the Kursk incursion. 

Interesting that they seem to believe that Russia can wage this war for decades - traditionally high intensity wars end with one side exhausted after 5 years or so. Russia has subsidised it's war with its soviet legacy but those stockpiles will run out and without foreign support it will discover that it's GDP is rather modest for the scale of the fighting it has committed to.