How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

43 minutes ago, Fenris said:

Don't recall seeing one of these actually being used against the enemy before.  Not the best quality, makes it pretty impossible to see if it has any effect.

 

And we see here why shotguns are a temporary solution. As will be 30mm super guns. Someone is going to mount a Javelin or Spike on one of these things, picking off tanks and mech at 5+kms. These systems plus swarming, plus indirect fires, plus precision deep strike is where this whole thing is heading.

What is interesting is how much we are seeing now on anti-pers evolution for drones. 

[ArmouredTopHat]

Seeing a bit more of these on the front. I suppose they have quite the effect on morale to those effected as well. 

[photon]

So, that appears to be a stupendous amount of thermite - the carrying capacity of those drones is impressive. Also: what the heck is the countermeasure to that, other than shoot down the drone before it starts raining molten iron?

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Fenris said:

Don't recall seeing one of these actually being used against the enemy before.  Not the best quality, makes it pretty impossible to see if it has any effect.

 

These things have two fairly good roles to play.  The first is just being a massive PITA harassing tool.  Reminds me of when Grant would pop one shell into Vicksberg at random times during the night.  Just enough to prevent the Confederates from drifting off to sleep and sap morale.  After the siege was over the defenders confirmed it was extremely effective.

The other is flying it straight down into a trench and firing to suppress while friendly infantry infiltrates.

Steve

[ArmouredTopHat]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

These things have two fairly good roles to play.  The first is just being a massive PITA harassing tool.  Reminds me of when Grant would pop one shell into Vicksberg at random times during the night.  Just enough to prevent the Confederates from drifting off to sleep and sap morale.  After the siege was over the defenders confirmed it was extremely effective.

The other is flying it straight down into a trench and firing to suppress while friendly infantry infiltrates.

Steve

I honestly think there is a reason we have not seen much in the way of strapping fixed guns to drones to do exactly this. I dont see it being anything near as significant as the grenade drops, let alone the FPV drones. There are a host of issues involved.

If your taking a gun from the average AFU infantrymen, then you can expect only thirty shots from your strapped on gun, unless using some sort of drum magazine (though this adds weight and a higher probability of a stoppage, with no means to clear said stoppage)

In addition, the footage we saw shows just how difficult it actually is to hit someone with a gun fixed to an fpv drone. Its probably quite a bit easier to shoot them down with small arms as well given the thing has to do several 'dives' for its attack runs. It looks difficult as hell for the operator to actually angle the drone properly to put rounds on a human sized target. Weight is probably the main limiting factor here. 

It will be different matter entirely when someone actually cooks up even a rudimentary stabilised mount / turret that can be fitted to a small drone and fire at targets with far greater accuracy independent of the drones movement. All the technology is there really. Now that is a terrifying thought indeed. 

Edited September 5 by ArmouredTopHat

[Battlefront.com]

Article examining various military experts in the West starting to conclude the Kursk offensive has passed the point of being useful to Ukraine and is now more useful for Russia:

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4862260-ukraine-advance-kursk-scrutiny/

It's always difficult to assess what is vs. what it otherwise would be.  It is entirely possible the forces in the Kursk offensive could have arrested the Russians pushing out from Avdiivka, or it's possible that all the resources Russia has spent challenging Kursk would have distracted Ukraine from doing just that thing.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

I honestly think there is a reason we have not seen much in the way of strapping fixed guns to drones to do exactly this. I dont see it being anything near as significant as the grenade drops, let alone the FPV drones. There are a host of issues involved.

If your taking a gun from the average AFU infantrymen, then you can expect only thirty shots from your strapped on gun, unless using some sort of drum magazine (though this adds weight and a higher probability of a stoppage, with no means to clear said stoppage)

In addition, the footage we saw shows just how difficult it actually is to hit someone with a gun fixed to an fpv drone. Its probably quite a bit easier to shoot them down with small arms as well given the thing has to do several 'dives' for its attack runs. It looks difficult as hell for the operator to actually angle the drone properly to put rounds on a human sized target. Weight is probably the main limiting factor here. 

It will be different matter entirely when someone actually cooks up even a rudimentary stabilised mount / turret that can be fitted to a small drone and fire at targets with far greater accuracy independent of the drones movement. All the technology is there really. Now that is a terrifying thought indeed. 

Yup, that's what my point is... it's probably a very good tool for harassing, but not hitting anything.

The way to think about it is when you hear gunfire in your direction you have two choices; assume it could hit you and act accordingly *or* presume it won't and ignore it.  One of the primary reasons things like this are only good for harassment is soldiers tend to not presume they're safe and therefore aren't likely to be hit.

The advantage of this system over bombers is a bomber is a point weapon with (generally) 1-2 drops.  So if you're 10m away, something goes boom, you're likely safe for a while.  But an AK strapped to a drone has roughly 10 bursts that can be placed ANYWHERE in rapid succession.  Accuracy is besides the point.  People get hit by stray bullets all the time.

Steve

[billbindc]

The indictment in the RT case is well worth reading: https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1366266/dl

 

 

 

[Kraft]

17 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The indictment in the RT case is well worth reading: https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1366266/dl

 

 

 

because I cant edit my first post about it, here is just a small exhibit of the talking points the russian financed US "commentators" should focus on.

Hopefully not too much US politics but this involves russia so Ill just post a small hint, the persons next to "candidate A" here are paid by russia.

 

Edited September 5 by Kraft

[Battlefront.com]

16 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The indictment in the RT case is well worth reading: https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1366266/dl

 

 

 

I remember back in 2014/2015 Russians here were defending RT when, eventually, they admitted it was nothing but a propaganda machine.  Their defense?  "Well, everybody does it!  This is no different than the BBC".  Yeah, right.

I wish they charged the US based people that produced this crap.  It should have been screamingly obvious that they were working for a foreign government or, at the least, a group that was closely aligned with a foreign government.  They should also have figured out that the money they were being paid was illicit.

"Ignorance is no excuse"

Steve

[billbindc]

8 minutes ago, Kraft said:

because I cant edit my first post about it, here is just a small exhibit of the talking points the russian financed US "commentators" should focus on.

Hopefully not too much US politics but this involves russia so Ill just post a small hint, the persons next to "candidate A" here are paid by russia.

 

The hybrid/propaganda war being fought in America right now is *also* the battlefield and it's crucial that we don't let the Russians win it so that Ukraine may continue to get the arms it needs to prevail. If that's partisan to some folks...well, I would argue that in that case they should think harder about the party they belong to. 

Edited September 5 by billbindc

[billbindc]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I remember back in 2014/2015 Russians here were defending RT when, eventually, they admitted it was nothing but a propaganda machine.  Their defense?  "Well, everybody does it!  This is no different than the BBC".  Yeah, right.

I wish they charged the US based people that produced this crap.  It should have been screamingly obvious that they were working for a foreign government or, at the least, a group that was closely aligned with a foreign government.  They should also have figured out that the money they were being paid was illicit.

"Ignorance is no excuse"

Steve

I am pretty sure some superseding indictments will flow from this. I have heard in multiple places that this is just the beginning. 

[Fenris]

16 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The hybrid/propaganda war being fought in America right now is *also* the battlefield and it's crucial that we don't let the Russians win it so that Ukraine may continue to get the arms it needs to prevail. If that's partisan to some folks...well, I would argue that in that case they should think harder about the party they belong to. 

I would argue it's not just in the US.  The same divisive messages are being amplified all over the west from the UK to AU.  Tapping into local discontent and turning up the heat.

It's hardly a new tactic, just the tools are changing allowing greater reach and traction.

Edited September 5 by Fenris

[acrashb]

1 hour ago, photon said:

 Also: what the heck is the countermeasure to that, other than shoot down the drone before it starts raining molten iron?

Thermite can burn through steel, asbestos, and concrete, in sufficient quantity.
The key here is that while thermite can theoretically burn through almost anything given enough time and quantity, practical limitations like heat dissipation, material thickness, or the presence of cooling agents like water can affect its ability to completely burn through certain materials.

So head into the bunker and wait.

31 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The indictment in the RT case is well worth reading: https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1366266/dl

Some good work by the justice department.  A lot of people are going to outed as  fools  / tools.

And I was amused to see a Kalashnikov in the indictment.  Apparently it isn't a common name in Russia.

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

They should also have figured out that the money they were being paid was illicit.

"Ignorance is no excuse

I operate, among other things, the sanctions compliance regime at my organization.  Time to go back and review some of the language.

Having said that, someone (individual or organization) who doesn't take reasonable steps to avoid engaging with sanctioned entities is in a world of hurt should the relevant administrative authorities decide to take notice of them.

[Battlefront.com]

32 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The hybrid/propaganda war being fought in America right now is *also* the battlefield and it's crucial that we don't let the Russians win it so that Ukraine may continue to get the arms it needs to prevail. If that's partisan to some folks...well, I would argue that in that case they should think harder about the party they belong to. 

Also out today is this:

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/04/foreign-government-investigations-linda-sun-00177380

In this case four influential Democrats appear to be caught red handed being bribed with money from foreign autocratic governments.

I hope we can all agree that foreign autocracies do this sort of thing because they believe it gives them results that help undermine the democratic countries they are targeting.  And because of that, we should all agree that there should be ZERO tolerance or excuses for those involved, no matter which group is doing the "peddling" and no matter which party is being "influenced".

Personally, having spent many hours of my life back in the 2014/15 timeframe combating RT's blatant influence mission, I'm happy to see some (sadly, limited) action against their successors.

Steve

 

[Battlefront.com]

13 minutes ago, Fenris said:

I would argue it's not just in the US.  The same divisive messages are being amplified all over the west from the UK to AU.  Tapping into local discontent and turning up the heat.

It's hardly a new tactic, just the tools are changing allowing greater reach and traction.

For sure this isn't just a US problem.  We've beaten up our German friends a hundred times because their government officials were, basically, on Russian payroll (well, that's what it amounted to IMHO).  Some of them still are.  We've also discussed similar ops in Slovakia, Hungry, Italy, Great Britain, Switzerland, and pretty much everywhere else in Europe.  I'd mention Serbia in this context, but that's a whole 'nother ball of wax (as they say).

The more this is talked about, the better.  It's important for people to understand how pervasive Russian influence peddling is.

Steve

[chris talpas]

13 hours ago, Silentkilarz said:

. We get plenty of politics everwhere else in life. God I hate election season LOL

I offer up one more piece of presidential politics from a better time.  Had either of these won, America would still be the winner.

 

[FancyCat]

https://www.twz.com/air/above-all-else-jassm-would-give-ukraine-a-steady-supply-of-cruise-missiles

Long ish article but supply of these is way more plentiful than Storm Shadow or Scalp. 

Quote

But the capabilities JASSM could provide really aren’t its biggest draw, it’s the fact that the U.S. has been working to stockpile thousands of these missiles and is building more advanced versions as fast as it can. Pentagon budget documents and Selected Acquisition Reports for the JASSM program show just over 2,000 AGM-158As were acquired before production of those missiles ended in 2021. The current “inventory objective” for total JASSM purchases, past and future, including the aforementioned A versions, as well as current and future subvariants of the JASSM-ER, is over 12,000.

AGM-158As first entered service in the early 2000s and B models began to follow in the mid-2010s. Some of the original missiles are aging and are likely approaching the end of their service lives or are in need of major overhauls to keep them fresh. So, the U.S. military could provide a steady stream of these weapons to Ukraine, at least the oldest and least advanced types. In comparison, Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG were not built in anywhere near the same quantities. While the United Kingdom and France have been generous with these weapons, the supply of them is limited and is likely already becoming a major concern. The United Kingdom is said to have hundreds not thousands of these missiles in total before they started flowing to Ukraine, for instance. JASSM could step in and stabilize the situation. This is similar to what the AIM-120 AMRAAM and NASAMS air defense systems provided, which you can read all about here.

 

[Eug85]

1 hour ago, acrashb said:

And I was amused to see a Kalashnikov in the indictment.  Apparently it isn't a common name in Russia.

Kalashnikov is a surname no less popular in Russia than Baker is in the US. Their meanings are almost identical. Apparently Kalashnikov had ancestors who were engaged in the production of buns

[Joe982]

5 hours ago, Kraft said:

the persons next to "candidate A" here are paid by russia.

Well Russia's USD accounts are frozen. So, how are they paid?

[Holien]

22 minutes ago, Joe982 said:

, how are they paid?

Your smarter than this aren't you?

[Butschi]

2 hours ago, Joe982 said:

Well Russia's USD accounts are frozen. So, how are they paid?

You are aware that currencies were invented millennia before the USD was a thing and that there are many different currencies all around the world, right? It is even possible to exchange one currency for another... /s

Edited September 5 by Butschi

[Lethaface]

19 hours ago, Probus said:

And I am extremely sorry for posting that and I am extremely sorry for your desire to attack me because of it.   Let me just say this now.  I HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH MAGA.  My comment was just a fact as we see it here in Oklahoma.  Yes, I'm from a red state.  That does not give YOU the right to call me stupid and brainwashed because I have a different opinion than you do. I will gladly take this offline with you if you so desire it and explain why the comment is very relevant to Switzerland's policies as of late. 

This thread is vastly more left than it is right.  I get that.  I support Ukraine and hate that the far right does not.  I find it very short sited and isolationist but I'm not going to vote for a nominee that has stated time and time again that she is a communist (not even a socialist!) by what she says.  I can send you a compilation of her speeches if you don't believe me, but here is not the place for it.

Lol that makes all of Europe communist, thanks . I think it's fair to say that without even having listened to her speeches apart from the tidbits that get reported in the news here. This thread is absolutely not vastly more left, perhaps it is compared to USA's average middle ground but there are more reference cadres.

[chuckdyke]

8 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Lol that makes all of Europe communist,

Yes, having a social conscience by advocating social justice makes you a communist in the eyes of the Archie Bunkers of the US of A. 

[The_Capt]

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup, that's what my point is... it's probably a very good tool for harassing, but not hitting anything.

The way to think about it is when you hear gunfire in your direction you have two choices; assume it could hit you and act accordingly *or* presume it won't and ignore it.  One of the primary reasons things like this are only good for harassment is soldiers tend to not presume they're safe and therefore aren't likely to be hit.

The advantage of this system over bombers is a bomber is a point weapon with (generally) 1-2 drops.  So if you're 10m away, something goes boom, you're likely safe for a while.  But an AK strapped to a drone has roughly 10 bursts that can be placed ANYWHERE in rapid succession.  Accuracy is besides the point.  People get hit by stray bullets all the time.

Steve

Doesn’t really need to be accurate. In fact most small arms fire on the battlefield is laughably inaccurate. It is that direct small arms fire can come at you on the ground from any direction at any time. The suppressive effect of this is very good. Once suppressed the platform with the gun can then call in accurate indirect fires or send in the grenade dropping/FPVs.

Now put twenty of these into the air and you have volume suppression. This highlights something we are just beginning to see - UAS integration into a new combined arms. Drones right now are sent out as individual strike packages. Mixing and matching of fires on those packages (direct, grenades, AT, incendiary etc) in combinations that project dilemmas is really just emerging.