How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[LongLeftFlank]

8 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

As I recall the young  lad here was infantry who did some time in a sandbox back when. Comes home sparks up a YouTube channel on military affairs…”like and subscribe folks”. Problem is that an infantry grunt who fought in a small war has zero expertise or relevant experience when it comes to force production and operationalization. Nor does he have experience in logistic, C4ISR at the operational or strategic levels etc. What he has is a snappy sales pitch and cute flash screens.

And here is the really hard part for us military folks: even the multi starred generals and their long suffering senior staff (I.e. Me) have limited utility in trying to understand this war. Why? Because we have not seen one like this since the 80s (Iran-Iraq) when even the most senior 3 stars were you bucks. And we have not seen one in a European context like this since WW2…and my grandpa died years ago.

So one really has to be careful. This young fella might be a gifted “babe and suckling in the Temple” or he could be some shill pitching ground up unicorn horn. Buyer beware.

Some ugly stuff going on over in Kosovo right now, possibly, although I don't have a link I'd care to share yet. Cross-burnings, Koran-burnings, father-rapin'.

I mention this, as I can think of at least two powers who would be happy to see a sectarian (i.e. Serb-Muslim) flare up in the Balkans at this moment.

...the other one is an extremely close US ally. 

[Probus]

Guys,

  Can we keep the stereotyping, name calling and anti-American Political commentary to another thread and just discuss topics related to Ukraine here?  This is just starting to sound like a progressive echo chamber.  Anyone who disagrees with the party line here gets attacked.

  Lets talk Ukraine, weapon systems, attacks, defenses, and so on...  A lot of things are happening there and we are just polluting this thread with American election politics.

[LongLeftFlank]

49 minutes ago, Probus said:

Guys,

  Can we keep the stereotyping, name calling and anti-American Political commentary to another thread and just discuss topics related to Ukraine here?  This is just starting to sound like a progressive echo chamber.  Anyone who disagrees with the party line here gets attacked.

  Lets talk Ukraine, weapon systems, attacks, defenses, and so on...  A lot of things are happening there and we are just polluting this thread with American election politics.

The inmates are running this particular asylum, so... goo luck wit'dat.

*****

However, as a gesture to try to keep us substantive, while I cannot vouch for the source (uses 'zeeoneest enemy') I am a sucker for anything that quantifies the nuts and bolts of the battlefield. Still, season to taste:

https://orinocotribune.com/palestinian-resistance-from-the-lone-sniper-to-an-army-of-snipers/

One resistance fighter recalls that a single sniper rifle would be circulated among several factions in a single month, and the price of a single bullet sometimes reached $70. This logistical scarcity significantly limited the development of the resistance’s human expertise in sniping operations. Thus, until 2008, sniping operations were entrusted to those uniquely talented fighters who excelled in using a sniper rifle. These rifles had an effective range of less than one kilometer, and a bullet caliber of 7.62 mm.... it has [now] become possible to develop a large cadre of specialized fighters who excels in using the best [14.5mm] sniper weapons in the world.... Al-Ghoul can inflict wounds at a distance of 4km 

Edited September 4 by LongLeftFlank

[Silentkilarz]

Shouldn't have to wade through multiple pages of political grandstanding to just to find a few tidbits on whats going on in Ukraine. Its ridiculous.

Edited September 4 by Silentkilarz

[The_Capt]

22 minutes ago, Silentkilarz said:

Shouldn't have to wade through multiple pages of political grandstanding to just to find a few tidbits on whats going on in Ukraine. Its ridiculous.

Meh, I prefer some side roads to endless streams of drone porn to make everyone feel better. What is going on - well same thing that has been going on for months: a grinding war of attrition with a few sparks now and again.

[Astrophel]

1 hour ago, Probus said:

Guys,

  Can we keep the stereotyping, name calling and anti-American Political commentary to another thread and just discuss topics related to Ukraine here?  This is just starting to sound like a progressive echo chamber.  Anyone who disagrees with the party line here gets attacked.

  Lets talk Ukraine, weapon systems, attacks, defenses, and so on...  A lot of things are happening there and we are just polluting this thread with American election politics.

I have not noticed much anti- americanism - none actually.  The discussions of recent days have been interesting to me because they increase my understanding of major influencers like Telegram and Musk, plus I feel better educated on the philosophies of various governance systems which at the end of the day will decide the result.  

Ukraine is only going to win this war when the russians stop fighting.  The decisive fight is for the hearts and minds of the russian people.  To take a parallel case, the Vietnam war was lost when the ordinary American troops stopped fighting and stopped being drafted.  It was not a question of North Vietnam having superior weapon systems - at least in my judgement.

Defeating russians with better weapon systems is not going to happen.  Russia has an insane arsenal of nuclear weapons, a declared willingness to use them, and a conventional military machine still running despite all doom-sayers.  The Ukrainian tactics are still about boiling the frog while, in my opinion, preserving life.

Putin is not blind to the symbolism of Ukraine taking russian territory.  His visit to Mongolia as a Tsar is designed to illustrate the inevitable subjection of feared enemies.

While weapons systems have been decisive in keeping the water warm, so are the influencers important in undermining morale in russia.

To understand how to win this war we need to understand russians better and what will change their willingness to fight and oppress.  Such understandings may help avoid war with China which is otherwise on the menu.  There are many lessons in Ukraine for military preparedness and they belong here too, primarily even, but please let us not forget the politics.

For pure news followers I recommend; https://isw.pub/UkrWar090324

Edited September 4 by Astrophel
understanding war link

[Silentkilarz]

6 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Meh, I prefer some side roads to endless streams of drone porn to make everyone feel better. What is going on - well same thing that has been going on for months: a grinding war of attrition with a few sparks now and again.

I get that sentiment and some politics due get involved in particular support for Ukraine and weapon deliveries. However, its just getting ridiculous imho with all the "grandstanding". Some of us actually check the thread for new developments and opinions on current events happening. Its just tiring watching either side constantly bitch and moan about the other. We get plenty of politics everwhere else in life. God I hate election season LOL

[The_Capt]

8 minutes ago, Silentkilarz said:

I get that sentiment and some politics due get involved in particular support for Ukraine and weapon deliveries. However, its just getting ridiculous imho with all the "grandstanding". Some of us actually check the thread for new developments and opinions on current events happening. Its just tiring watching either side constantly bitch and moan about the other. We get plenty of politics everwhere else in life. God I hate election season LOL

Totally fair point. Most people on this thread are not even American. Of course you nail it in your response - "current events", right now US politics is the current event as it relates to this war. So the "woke/anti-woke," "gun-nuts" and "Autistics for Trump" stuff is bound to bob to the top of the toilet bowl.

I like to think it is the universe's way to teach patience. But until then:

 

[LongLeftFlank]

On 8/30/2024 at 6:14 PM, LongLeftFlank said:

 

Compare this map to the one I posted last week showing (rough) Uke defensive lines. Not dramatic gains, but gains nonetheless.

And if they're indeed in Hrodivka, they've leapfrogged the stream/balka barrier (begging the question of whether such terrain features even matter in post-mech warfare -- I am no longer sure tbh) and are into the Pokrovsk defensive belt.

https://english.nv.ua/nation/russians-likely-captured-novohrodivka-halytsynivka-near-pokrovsk-50448205.html

*****

Butusov has been quiet lately, but his last missive (24 Aug) was not optimistic.

https://english.nv.ua/nation/donbas-cities-may-soon-fall-butusov-warns-of-critical-situation-radio-nv-50445367.html

So about that 'shell famine' and shoddy Nork ammo, etc. One photo never made a spring and all that, but.... CollapseTM seems as far away now as ever.

 

Edited September 4 by LongLeftFlank

[Silentkilarz]

In my 4+ decades on this planet I've learned plenty of patience lol. Its why I havent said anything about this for months.

There is a tremendous amount of knowledge and experience here from all aspects of life and from the entire globe. I just hate seeing it boiling down to "us v them". Just my humble $.02.

[LongLeftFlank]

Just now, Silentkilarz said:

In my 4+ decades on this planet I've learned plenty of patience lol. Its why I havent said anything about this for months.

There is a tremendous amount of knowledge and experience here from all aspects of life and from the entire globe. I just hate seeing it boiling down to "us v them". Just my humble $.02.

Especially when each 'Us' spends vastly more time 'splaining away and dehumanising 'The Other' than it does reflecting on its own defects and inconsistencies.

[Silentkilarz]

13 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Especially when each 'Us' spends vastly more time 'splaining away and dehumanising 'The Other' than it does reflecting on its own defects and inconsistencies.

Agreed, but I'll get off the soapbox and go back to learning all I can about this war from the more knowledgeable. My time of looking into detailed small unit tactics and actions ended over 20 years ago. I'll go back to my fresh box of crayolas that my wife got me for breakfast.

[Bearstronaut]

2 hours ago, Probus said:

Guys,

  Can we keep the stereotyping, name calling and anti-American Political commentary to another thread and just discuss topics related to Ukraine here?  This is just starting to sound like a progressive echo chamber.  Anyone who disagrees with the party line here gets attacked.

  Lets talk Ukraine, weapon systems, attacks, defenses, and so on...  A lot of things are happening there and we are just polluting this thread with American election politics.

Brother Probus, American politics is incredibly important in this war. American military aid (with notable contributions from our NATO allies) has kept Ukraine in this war. We all saw what happened earlier in the year when Congress turned off the tap. That political grandstanding had very real consequences for the brave Ukrainian men and women at the front. Bottom line is that one party is fully willing to throw Ukraine to the bear and the other party isn't. 

[billbindc]

10 hours ago, Eug85 said:

If we follow your logic, we have good far leftists and bad far rightists. If that's true and they have diametrically opposed goals, what makes them unite?

What he is describing isn't necessarily good or bad...it's a fundamental and real philosophical difference between the right and left in that the left believes that fundamentally mankind is perfectible while the right believes that mankind is fundamentally not. What makes them unite is that both see small "L" liberal democracy as an obstacle to their political prescriptions. 

[danfrodo]

3 hours ago, Probus said:

Guys,

  Can we keep the stereotyping, name calling and anti-American Political commentary to another thread and just discuss topics related to Ukraine here?  This is just starting to sound like a progressive echo chamber.  Anyone who disagrees with the party line here gets attacked.

  Lets talk Ukraine, weapon systems, attacks, defenses, and so on...  A lot of things are happening there and we are just polluting this thread with American election politics.

Sounds great, Probus.  I believe a big part of the latest off-topic stuff started with ..... your "woke is broke' comment in connection with Switzerland, which no one seems to understand.  If you do want to not get 'attacked', which I will call 'challenged', then don't post MAGA drive-by comments.  Especially one that makes zero sense to anyone.  This aint some MAGA echo chamber.

But I completely agree and will not start any political commentary, though if someone throws in political comments they should expect to be challenged.

The one thing we all agree on here is that UKR needs to win, for every reason both moral and strategic.  That support is one of the few things that really spans across most of the political spectrum, though not all of course.  I've praised politicians I otherwise can't stand when they stand up for UKR and will continue to do so.

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Silentkilarz said:

In my 4+ decades on this planet I've learned plenty of patience lol. Its why I havent said anything about this for months.

There is a tremendous amount of knowledge and experience here from all aspects of life and from the entire globe. I just hate seeing it boiling down to "us v them". Just my humble $.02.

4+?  4+?!  Youngster!  

[Silentkilarz]

4 minutes ago, sburke said:

4+?  4+?!  Youngster!  

I know, I'm a baby compared to some on here. Old enough to know better and young enough to get away with it.

[Probus]

19 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Sounds great, Probus.  I believe a big part of the latest off-topic stuff started with ..... your "woke is broke' comment in connection with Switzerland, which no one seems to understand.  If you do want to not get 'attacked', which I will call 'challenged', then don't post MAGA drive-by comments.  Especially one that makes zero sense to anyone.  This aint some MAGA echo chamber.

And I am extremely sorry for posting that and I am extremely sorry for your desire to attack me because of it.   Let me just say this now.  I HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH MAGA.  My comment was just a fact as we see it here in Oklahoma.  Yes, I'm from a red state.  That does not give YOU the right to call me stupid and brainwashed because I have a different opinion than you do. I will gladly take this offline with you if you so desire it and explain why the comment is very relevant to Switzerland's policies as of late. 

This thread is vastly more left than it is right.  I get that.  I support Ukraine and hate that the far right does not.  I find it very short sited and isolationist but I'm not going to vote for a nominee that has stated time and time again that she is a communist (not even a socialist!) by what she says.  I can send you a compilation of her speeches if you don't believe me, but here is not the place for it.

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, Probus said:

I find it very short sited and isolationist but I'm not going to vote for a nominee that has stated time and time again that she is a communist (not even a socialist!) by what she says.  I can send you a compilation of her speeches if you don't believe me, but here is not the place for it.

Oh dear, here we go. Worst attempt at mediation ever.

[Probus]

12 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Oh dear, here we go. Worst attempt at mediation ever.

Not to worry Capt.  I was apologizing for my off hand comment.  Here, in OK, it would not be considered inflammatory.  I have no desire to start up some kind of flame war, but I will discuss it via PM.

Edited September 4 by Probus

[billbindc]

19 minutes ago, Probus said:

This thread is vastly more left than it is right.  I get that.  I support Ukraine and hate that the far right does not.  I find it very short sited and isolationist but I'm not going to vote for a nominee that has stated time and time again that she is a communist (not even a socialist!) by what she says.  I can send you a compilation of her speeches if you don't believe me, but here is not the place for it.

LOL

"Plutôt personne que Hitler ou Blum" is not the flex you think it is...but yes, slow day around here...please send us your best excerpts of Harris being a red toothed Bolshie.

<sits down, cracks a beer with a sigh of contentment>  

[sburke]

26 minutes ago, Probus said:

And I am extremely sorry for posting that and I am extremely sorry for your desire to attack me because of it.   Let me just say this now.  I HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH MAGA.  My comment was just a fact as we see it here in Oklahoma.  

I am just gobsmacked that this comes from someone who lives in the state where the far right set off a truck bomb killing 168 people and injuring 680.  And yet you'd still vote for a guy who brought far right violence to the steps of our capitol.  But I guess there were "good people on both sides" back in 1995 too.  

Edited September 4 by sburke

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, Probus said:

Not to worry Capt.  I was apologizing for my off hand comment.  Here, in OK, it would not be considered inflammatory.  I have no desire to start up some kind of flame war, but I will discuss it via PM.

I really am not all that invested in this US political debate…beyond the fate of the free world of course. But you just did what we have called out MAGA clowns for on this thread - you employed over the top hyperbole to “other” the opposite position.

No political party in the US is even close to being truly communist - hell, even these clowns don’t even fully prescribe to fundamentals of communism doctrine: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_Party_USA

The big one being abolition of private property. The second you start tossing around accusations along these lines it tells me 1) you really have no idea what communism is or is not and 2) you are jumping on the same boogey-man schtick as the rest of the loonies we have had in here on occasion. You do seem more polite about it.

I fully concur though. If you guys wanna try and change each other’s votes, get a room. But let’s keep the uninformed mud slinging to a minimum.

[danfrodo]

30 minutes ago, Probus said:

And I am extremely sorry for posting that and I am extremely sorry for your desire to attack me because of it.   Let me just say this now.  I HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH MAGA.  My comment was just a fact as we see it here in Oklahoma.  Yes, I'm from a red state.  That does not give YOU the right to call me stupid and brainwashed because I have a different opinion than you do. I will gladly take this offline with you if you so desire it and explain why the comment is very relevant to Switzerland's policies as of late. 

This thread is vastly more left than it is right.  I get that.  I support Ukraine and hate that the far right does not.  I find it very short sited and isolationist but I'm not going to vote for a nominee that has stated time and time again that she is a communist (not even a socialist!) by what she says.  I can send you a compilation of her speeches if you don't believe me, but here is not the place for it.

Heard, Probus.  I apologize.  I went too far.

Edited September 4 by danfrodo

[Bennie]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

What he is describing isn't necessarily good or bad...it's a fundamental and real philosophical difference between the right and left in that the left believes that fundamentally mankind is perfectible while the right believes that mankind is fundamentally not. What makes them unite is that both see small "L" liberal democracy as an obstacle to their political prescriptions. 

Agreed. Let me add that the far left see the Capitalist world order - which liberal democracies uphold - as the primary evil and are willing to overlook the moral shortcomings of anything that could undermine capitalist hegemony. Why the right supports Putin is more complicated.