How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sburke]

The UA delivers a Toyota to the Russian army....

Toyota Mirai Turned Into Hydrogen Bomb By Ukrainian Forces Explodes With The Force Of 400 Pounds Of TNT (msn.com)

 

 

 

 

[The_Capt]

12 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Putin COULD start actual negotiations instead, try to get out of this with Crimea, and his regime intact. If he does go for a second mobilization does that bring us to a final conclusion that the war will go on until Putin falls? Or wins I suppose, but that seems ever less likely if political trends hold in the U.S.? 

One the bigger questions about mobilization would seem to be China's response. Will Xi supply the basic war material Putin needs to put several hundred thousand more men in the field with winter coming on? Can Russia possibly do it without that help?

This seems like the next set of questions to consider, or at least some of them.

 

He already had the Crimea before this whole stupidity.  He is likely to try for the Donbass complete. The major sticking point will be that strategic bridge.

As to China, I suspect they will provide whatever (within limits) so long as Russia can pay.  Their strategy appears to milk this dying goat until it goes nuclear.  If they won't, India will, because everyone wants cheap gas as we go over the cliff.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

20 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

The more this develops and I look at it, I am becoming convinced that the larger play here was to try and force Putin into a second mobilization.  We are still not sure how much is posturing as it will cost the UA a lot to try and hold onto Russian countryside once the RA gets rolling.  But in order for the RA to handle this and try to sustain offensive operations, I strongly suspect that a Russian mobilization will be required - we have seen hints of this already.

Or  a larger play may pertain to UKR politics - Putin has ruled out any peace negotiations for as long as Ukrainians hold land on the RUS side of the border. This must have been anticipated by the Ukrainians and maybe was intended to happen. A few weeks ago, everybody was talking about imminent peace talks, and now that talk is no more. So, it might be a move akin to Cortez pulling his ships out of the water and putting them on stocks. Neither the Western governements, nor any fraction in UKR politics will even try to pressure Zelenski's governement to start negotiating with the RUS, for the time being there seems no point in doing so.

Or there may be several larger plays at once and wheels within the wheels.

[Astrophel]

Curious how the russian people in these border areas are reacting.  It is not as black and white as the border between US and Mexico say.  There is not  a language barrier and from what I understand families live on both sides of the line.  Maybe, if Ukraine behaves like a civilised western power as I would expect there will be little resistance and support for as much peace and harmony as possible while they get the harvest in - top priority in the coming weeks.  Zelensky is surely smart enough to have thought this through but it all depends how the local people actually behave.  The prospect of being evacuated to the front line areas further South would persuade me at least not to cooperate with the russian authorities.

As for russian mobilisation, I don't suppose there is enough time to make a difference on the ground this year and it would only tie up loyalists who could otherwise be rushed to the front.

[dan/california]

7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

He already had the Crimea before this whole stupidity.  He is likely to try for the Donbass complete. The major sticking point will be that strategic bridge.

As to China, I suspect they will provide whatever (within limits) so long as Russia can pay.  Their strategy appears to milk this dying goat until it goes nuclear.  If they won't, India will, because everyone wants cheap gas as we go over the cliff.

So we are still stuck with the unhappy trio of choices. Give Putin something he can almost sell as win, at least to people whose freedom and salary depend on pretending to believe, Collapsing the Russian regime with all the unpleasantness that entails, or WW3? Am I missing something?

[Eddy]

A second mobilization would be a catastrophe for the Russian economy. This is a far bigger problem than the population not liking it or whether there is enough basic war material etc.

Simply put, there are not enough workers in Russia now, let alone after a second mobilization. This can be seen all across industries but is particularly seen in a lack of truck drivers, as the Russian army is desperate for them. This has resulted in driving up wages for drivers, which drives up transportation prices, which drives up inflation across the board for everything.

It can also be seen in local bus routes being stopped. There are no bus drivers. Garbage not being collected. There is no one to drive the garbage trucks. This is in the regions, not in Moscow or St Petersburg.

On top of that, petrol and diesel prices are rising, adding to the costs of transportation. This is despite petrol supposedly being subsidised.  

The official inflation rate last month was 8.6%. This is a made up number. I have seen reports of carrots being 57% more expensive than a year ago, potatoes are 96% higher. A report from John Hopkins University puts the inflation rate as at the very least 24%. 

A second mobilization would pour rocket fuel on the inflation rate, and no amount of raising interest rates would make the slightest difference as this is supply side problem rather than demand side.

[Astrophel]

1 minute ago, Eddy said:

A second mobilization would be a catastrophe for the Russian economy. This is a far bigger problem than the population not liking it or whether there is enough basic war material etc.

Simply put, there are not enough workers in Russia now, let alone after a second mobilization. This can be seen all across industries but is particularly seen in a lack of truck drivers, as the Russian army is desperate for them. This has resulted in driving up wages for drivers, which drives up transportation prices, which drives up inflation across the board for everything.

It can also be seen in local bus routes being stopped. There are no bus drivers. Garbage not being collected. There is no one to drive the garbage trucks. This is in the regions, not in Moscow or St Petersburg.

On top of that, petrol and diesel prices are rising, adding to the costs of transportation. This is despite petrol supposedly being subsidised.  

The official inflation rate last month was 8.6%. This is a made up number. I have seen reports of carrots being 57% more expensive than a year ago, potatoes are 96% higher. A report from John Hopkins University puts the inflation rate as at the very least 24%. 

A second mobilization would pour rocket fuel on the inflation rate, and no amount of raising interest rates would make the slightest difference as this is supply side problem rather than demand side.

Great points - the economy is in perilous waters.  I wonder how the harvest will be with this weird weather we have had this year?  In my area it is turning into a disaster. 

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, Astrophel said:

Curious how the russian people in these border areas are reacting.  It is not as black and white as the border between US and Mexico say.  There is not  a language barrier and from what I understand families live on both sides of the line.  Maybe, if Ukraine behaves like a civilised western power as I would expect there will be little resistance and support for as much peace and harmony as possible while they get the harvest in - top priority in the coming weeks.  Zelensky is surely smart enough to have thought this through but it all depends how the local people actually behave.  The prospect of being evacuated to the front line areas further South would persuade me at least not to cooperate with the russian authorities.

As for russian mobilisation, I don't suppose there is enough time to make a difference on the ground this year and it would only tie up loyalists who could otherwise be rushed to the front.

They stuffed people into the line in less than two weeks last time. I really thought it would result in the mass failure of the Russian army, but it didn't. They managed to smother the strategic follow on of the Kharkiv offensive in the rotting corpses of dead mobiks. Of course the casualties were beyond western comprehension, but it sort of worked, by Russian standards of worked. So the real question is can they round up a second batch, when said second batch has at least some idea of what happened to the first one? 

And if they try and fail do we get a relatively clean elite coup, or does Russia just dissolve? 

I understand, or at least think I do, that a second mobilzation puts the Russian economy on a path to complete, and epic failure. I just think that failure might take slightly to long.The other possibility is that economic failure is much quicker, but I think, but that brings us back towards Russian disintegration territory. Which a lot of people seem to think will be rather bad in in own right, to put it mildly.

 

[The_Capt]

19 minutes ago, dan/california said:

So we are still stuck with the unhappy trio of choices. Give Putin something he can almost sell as win, at least to people whose freedom and salary depend on pretending to believe, Collapsing the Russian regime with all the unpleasantness that entails, or WW3? Am I missing something?

Putin is shown early retirement, replaced by next thug who had just enough daylight between himself and the last regime that we can work with...and we try to negotiate out of this total sh#tshow before the world blows up.  Russia slides further back into China's orbit unless we can somehow renormalize...and we get ready for WW3 and/or the next US Civil war. That is the only other thing I can come up with.

[Battlefront.com]

44 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

The more this develops and I look at it, I am becoming convinced that the larger play here was to try and force Putin into a second mobilization.

Prior to the Kursk incursion Russia had the following two realistic options available to it:

1. Continue offensive operations in hopes of obtaining a favorable long term ceasefire, which comes along with an ever increasing risk that the entire house of cards collapses sooner rather than later
2. End offensive operations and freeze the conflict without a long term ceasefire, which introduces significant risk to the regime that get worse with each passing year

The key here is ending offensive operations because that's what has caused *all* of Russia's strategic problems since the war started.  Simply put, it expends too much to gain too little and then suffers major setbacks when it is in a weakened state. 

The reason Putin hasn't switched from #1 to #2 is because doing so means admitting the war is unwinnable while also not ending the war or relieving the internal stressors hammering political and economic stability.  So he's stuck himself with the need to continue offensive operations despite the fact that it digs the hole ever deeper.

The Kursk offensive has really put Putin in a difficult spot.  Whatever plans he had to continue with offensive ops got flushed down a stolen Ukrainian toilette.  Russia was already running out of resources to keep the offensive in the Donbas going, now it has to find forces to counter attack on top of keeping offensive ops going.

It's very clear to us that Putin was headed towards a make-or-break decision about mobilization even before the Kursk operation.  Now it's even more problematic.  If he goes for a mobilization things might collapse or at least not improve.  If he doesn't go with it, but wants to keep offensive ops going, collapse is right around the corner.  If he doesn't go with it and stops offensive ops then collapse is likely inevitable over time (maybe not much time).

Steve

[Astrophel]

Spent some time today listening to the Trump/Musk ramblings and was struck how far away the American perspective is.  I doubt either of these guys can spell Holodomor, and when I talk with Ukrainians this is not the worst thing that the russians did even.  Given the history both ancient and modern most Ukrainians I meet - all of them actually - see this as a fight to the death in the worst case.

So option 4) is that the war continues with support from Europe and whatever post-Biden America will contribute - I do not see Ukraine surrendering or broader European support diminishing - many Europeans have fresh memories of russian rule and they are not positive, even in Hungary.

A russian internal collapse is not a choice we have in our power.  There are hundreds of language groups and cultures in "russia".  Personally I worry about it less than strategists in Washington who tend to feel comfortable when autocracies simplify the maps.  Most people I ever met prefer peace before war.  With goodwill from the global community it will sort itself out. 

[acrashb]

Ukraine has introduced British dogbots into the front.  I understand that 30 have been transferred,  to enhance reconnaissance and reduce risks for human soldiers by performing tasks like inspecting Russian trenches and detecting mines:

 

[acrashb]

11 minutes ago, Astrophel said:

Most people I ever met prefer peace before war. 

You don't meet the people who make decisions.  Many of them are indifferent regards war or peace, because they think that they and their families will not be sent to war, and they're right.

[Battlefront.com]

Report that Russia is once again skimming it's NATO frontier for troops it can send into the war.  This report is about Kalinningrad:

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4827388-russia-moving-troops-kaliningrad-kursk-ukraine-attack/

Steve

[Astrophel]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Report that Russia is once again skimming it's NATO frontier for troops it can send into the war.  This report is about Kalinningrad:

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4827388-russia-moving-troops-kaliningrad-kursk-ukraine-attack/

Steve

The narrative about a Nato threat is looking threadbare even for a russian nationalist.

[sross112]

 

49 minutes ago, dan/california said:

So we are still stuck with the unhappy trio of choices. Give Putin something he can almost sell as win, at least to people whose freedom and salary depend on pretending to believe, Collapsing the Russian regime with all the unpleasantness that entails, or WW3? Am I missing something?

 

25 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Putin is shown early retirement, replaced by next thug who had just enough daylight between himself and the last regime that we can work with...and we try to negotiate out of this total sh#tshow before the world blows up.  Russia slides further back into China's orbit unless we can somehow renormalize...and we get ready for WW3 and/or the next US Civil war. That is the only other thing I can come up with.

 

20 minutes ago, Astrophel said:

So option 4) is that the war continues with support from Europe and whatever post-Biden America will contribute - I do not see Ukraine surrendering or broader European support diminishing - many Europeans have fresh memories of russian rule and they are not positive, even in Hungary.

 

Option 4b) Similar to Astrophel, but with the sole intent of ending it like the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Keep killing Russians, and especially conscripts, whenever and wherever you can until the internal pressure demands withdrawal. If it gets to a point where the powers that be have a choice to lose face or lose power, I'd bet on them losing face.

 

(spelling edit)

 

Edited August 14 by sross112

[Astrophel]

5 minutes ago, acrashb said:

You don't meet the people who make decisions.  Many of them are indifferent regards war or peace, because they think that they and their families will not be sent to war, and they're right.

I take your point but remember please that many wars, especially recently, are decided by the attitudes and beliefs of ordinary people on the ground.  We can argue many examples from Vietnam, to Afghanistan, to Ukraine now.

[hcrof]

While I predicted that Ukrainian advances would have stopped several days ago I am actually very surprised how dynamic the fighting still is - after all this time Russia still hasn't got it's act together and created a proper line of defence to surround the Kursk pocket. 

To me that adds to my general thought that Ukraine was, and is, being cautious with this offensive. Given the russian disorganisation I feel that they would have gotten a lot further if they pushed on, damn the casualties. 

Next prediction, Ukraine digs in to a defensible line over the next week and rotates in a load of less experienced troops to man the new trenches - they do seem to want this incursion to be a real thorn in Russia's side. And if it ends up as a bargaining chip in the end so much the better.

Edited August 14 by hcrof

[FancyCat]

If Russia truly was worried about NATO, seeking peace along the current frontlines with withdrawal from Russia, would be best before Finland and the Baltics get ideas...of course one could point to nukes but then you can argue Russia wouldn't be worried...ie NATO fears are way overblown.

Heh, could anyone in the world imagine Ukraine pushing into Russian territory? I mean we had opinion pieces arguing that Crimea was offlimits for missile strikes in 2022 and 2023. Crimean bridge being knocked down with western weapons doesn't look so escalatory now....as drones strike Russian airfields all the way to Moscow and Ukrainian strykers roam the Kursk countryside. 

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Astrophel said:

Spent some time today listening to the Trump/Musk ramblings and was struck how far away the American perspective is.  I doubt either of these guys can spell Holodomor, and when I talk with Ukrainians this is not the worst thing that the russians did even.  Given the history both ancient and modern most Ukrainians I meet - all of them actually - see this as a fight to the death in the worst case.

So option 4) is that the war continues with support from Europe and whatever post-Biden America will contribute - I do not see Ukraine surrendering or broader European support diminishing - many Europeans have fresh memories of russian rule and they are not positive, even in Hungary.

A russian internal collapse is not a choice we have in our power.  There are hundreds of language groups and cultures in "russia".  Personally I worry about it less than strategists in Washington who tend to feel comfortable when autocracies simplify the maps.  Most people I ever met prefer peace before war.  With goodwill from the global community it will sort itself out. 

Musk and Trump are not representative of general American opinion: https://news.gallup.com/poll/643601/americans-say-not-helping-ukraine-enough.aspx

[FancyCat]

Propaganda of course but still important, I hope Ukraine vets and lets western press enter and do the same to ensure western audiences get info on status of Russian civilians under Ukrainian occupation. (Jesus **** what a sentence)

Quote

The year is 2024 and NATO equipped forces are distributing humanitarian aid in Russian towns.

 

[omae2]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Putin is shown early retirement, replaced by next thug who had just enough daylight between himself and the last regime that we can work with...and we try to negotiate out of this total sh#tshow before the world blows up.  Russia slides further back into China's orbit unless we can somehow renormalize...and we get ready for WW3 and/or the next US Civil war. That is the only other thing I can come up with.

Putin will not retire he feels responsible for this thing, my totally armchair opinion that he pushed this thing in 2022 because he wanted to done with it before retirement.

What we need to keep in mind that this war is not only about Ukraine if you check his speech in the start of the war he really wanted to push out western influence from the eastern part of Europe. Two months before the war russia demanded that NATO get back to its 97 borders. Leaving out Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and im too drunk to check on all the others. This was about a new world order from the get go. The goals did not changed since. IF the westerners give russia a peace that can be portrayed as a russian victory they will use it to get more meat into the war machine. Further more some eastern European countries political parties will use it to spread anti western propaganda. That the west is weak it cannot defend us we need another defender. And the russians gonna exploit this.

The west cannot afford to let russia have anything that resemblance a victory. They have to loose. They have to feel that this was a waste of life and money so they don't do it again. Otherwise within ten years you gonna see a new a worst conflict.

[Battlefront.com]

39 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Propaganda of course but still important, I hope Ukraine vets and lets western press enter and do the same to ensure western audiences get info on status of Russian civilians under Ukrainian occupation. (Jesus **** what a sentence)

 

The optics of this sort of thing is... well... pretty damned good!

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, hcrof said:

While I predicted that Ukrainian advances would have stopped several days ago I am actually very surprised how dynamic the fighting still is - after all this time Russia still hasn't got it's act together and created a proper line of defence to surround the Kursk pocket. 

To me that adds to my general thought that Ukraine was, and is, being cautious with this offensive. Given the russian disorganisation I feel that they would have gotten a lot further if they pushed on, damn the casualties.

I think what we're seeing is a combination of good planning with reasonable expectations on Ukraine's part, and an absolute poop fest on the Russian's.

One of the most difficult things in warfare is to "know your limits" when on the advance.  If you don't make the right call, then you wind up losing a lot of forces and probably some ground.  The Soviets experienced that several times with their rapid pushes, in particular after the breakthroughs at Bagration.  And, of course, there is Case Blue on the German side to consider.  In fact, I think some books were written about that topic

What I'm getting at is Ukraine has CORRECTLY gone into this cautiously so it could get maximum benefit without risking a major military disaster that erases all the good.  It's not Ukraine's fault that Russia is even more inept and desperate for forces than anticipated.

1 hour ago, hcrof said:

Next prediction, Ukraine digs in to a defensible line over the next week and rotates in a load of less experienced troops to man the new trenches - they do seem to want this incursion to be a real thorn in Russia's side. And if it ends up as a bargaining chip in the end so much the better.

I largely agree with this.  My hunch is Ukraine expected to do a raid where they would cause maximum confusion and punishment, then withdraw before Russian forces were able to concentrate and smash them.  Now?  It seems Russia's ability to concentrate that sort of force in Kursk is still a little ways off.

Every day Ukraine expands or puts more forces into this fight, the harder it will be for Russia to kick them out.  I know, pretty obvious, but figured I might as well it.

The thing is, this is still a relatively small scale action.  Putting a couple of battalions into the fight has a totally outsized impact on this battle.  Ukraine can find battalions to keep this going.

Steve

[Pete Wenman]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

 

Every day Ukraine expands or puts more forces into this fight, the harder it will be for Russia to kick them out.  I know, pretty obvious, but figured I might as well it.

The thing is, this is still a relatively small scale action.  Putting a couple of battalions into the fight has a totally outsized impact on this battle.  Ukraine can find battalions to keep this going.

Steve

I've seen suggestions that UKR are now hoping to draw RU reinforcements into known railhead/deployment sites as they move to the Kursk area, which can then be engaged with HIMARS and the rest. Require the RU to create juicy targets in a fairly specific area, and then hit them with mass, precision fire. 

A lot more elegant than killing them one vehicle at a time.

P