How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

 

MT-LBs modified with whatever old junk they could find to stick on it.  Oooo... I bet Ukraine is trembling in their boots.  The flag seems to ring a bell, but I can't quite place it.  Caucuses somewhere?

Steve

[Kraft]

PoV of Khorne unit (or atleast their Screenrecording, they 'stole' Credit before) striking the Rylsk headed convoy. 

 

 

[sburke]

Russia's economy will face sharp decline after second quarter of 2024, Bloomberg reports (msn.com)

Russia is on track for an intense economic slowdown due to significant labor shortages and constraints placed on the key sectors that backed growth until now, Bloomberg reported on Aug. 9.

Labor resources are practically drained while the competition between the military and business for recruits becomes more fierce, the outlet writes.

This is likely to limit the further growth of defense-related industries. The banking and construction sectors are no longer protected from the impacts of high interest rates as the government shuts down the state-subsidized mortgage programs.

Despite Russia's GDP growing by 4% in the first quarter of the year, it will likely slow down to 2% in the last half of the year and hit 0.5% - 1.5% in 2025, says Alex Isakov, Russia economist at Bloomberg Economics.
The government's massive increase in spending to finance the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 caused Russia's economy to overheat to a level it has not seen since before the 2008 global financial crisis, Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina in her comment to Bloomberg.

"Reserves of labor and production capacity are almost exhausted," Nabiullina said.

As a result of the full-scale invasion, Russia's spending on national defense rose from 3.6 trillion rubles ($51 billion) in 2021 to 6.4 trillion rubles ($75 billion) in 2023 and is expected to rise to 10.8 trillion rubles ($120 billion), or 29.4% of the budget, in 2024.

In February 2024, U.S. intelligence estimated that since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Russia has spent up to $211 billion on military operations in Ukraine. The war has cost Russia up to $1.3 trillion in lost economic growth through 2026, an undisclosed source in U.S. intelligence in a comment to Reuters.

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

Regarding RU economy state - personal Putin friend Deripaska got very upset recently

There are two important phrases here - criticized the country's defense spending and called the fighting in Ukraine "madness.". It is all what you need to know about RU economy state and why RU desperately needs cease fire. 

That is pretty big.  For him to say that, of all people, hints at very large things going on behind the scenes.  We have not seen someone this big and powerful, with a seat at the inner circle table, say something this strongly before.

Steve

[Lethaface]

16 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

Do we have any more information on this strike? This video implies a fair bit of stuff went boom. And it didn't look like successful intercepts.

 

Saw more info on dutch news

"Ukraine has attacked a military airfield northeast of the Kursk region with drones. The Ukrainian army claims to have destroyed a stockpile of 700 guided missiles in Lipetsk.

On Telegram, the army says it caused "a large fire" and that "multiple explosions were observed". According to Ukraine, three warplanes were stationed at the airfield.

The Russian governor of the Lipetsk region calls it a "gigantic attack" that injured nine people. Ukraine attacks Russian air bases to make the Russians less capable of carrying out air strikes on Ukraine."

https://nos.nl/collectie/13965/artikel/2532551-oekraine-valt-russische-luchtmachtbasis-aan-rusland-beschiet-winkelcentrum-oekraine

[Battlefront.com]

57 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Honestly, while I respect and often read your inside info and tactical analysis, you all have lost credibility here, especially since the UA summer offensive that fell so catastrophically short.

I will admit that you have been far more consistent than anybody here.  Specifically, wrong about just about everything all the time.

The summer offensive in 2023 was a disappointment, but the analysis here as it unfolded was high quality.  Analysis and being right are not the same thing.  Nobody can predict with certainty how something brand new to warfare will unfold.

 

57 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

The less enthusiastic estimate here was UA reaching Crimea and cutting the "soon to break apart" RU army in half. We were so far into this that we were discussing what will happen to the Russian civilians there.

You must be confusing this thread with something else you were reading.  Because I've been here every day since the thread began and what you just wrote is not even close to reality.

And so you continue your streak of consistently being wrong.

Steve

[Beleg85]

19 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

MT-LBs modified with whatever old junk they could find to stick on it.  Oooo... I bet Ukraine is trembling in their boots.  The flag seems to ring a bell, but I can't quite place it.  Caucuses somewhere?

Steve

Abchazian probably, some accounts even pinted toward concrete unit with this type of vehicles.

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

This is certainly the sort of environment where suddenly having things like tanks / IFVs / direct fire become very useful!

You ASSUME it's doing something, but all we know for sure is Ukrainian forces are moving, not how they are moving.  Or do you have sources of information that nobody else here has?  Provided it isn't from classified sources, can you please share your evidence with the class?

3 hours ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

The more I think about it the more I realise just how good a move this was. Even if there is no specific terrain objective, the Ukrainians either force the Russians to commit reserves / drone forces to the area and thus deprive themselves in other areas, or continue to suffer egregious losses blindly moving around and getting ambushed/ ripped apart piecemeal by manvouver elements and sabotage groups. Stretching out the line has bizarrely worked out for Ukraine in this regard. Fighting on the Russian terms in the Donbass seems foolish by comparison. 

All of this certainly indicates that well motivated Ukrainian brigades are far better at mobile warfare than the Russians at this point, where the Russians cannot rely on glide bombs or steady meat waves to wear down forces. This is a -far- more efficient use of resources, at least so far. 

I really cannot wait to find out how the Ukrainians broke through two defensive lines meant to prevent this so easily.

What we are seeing, clearly, is a combination of Ukrainian ingenuity exploiting Russian limitations.  The biggest of which was Russian complacency and assumptions that the border area could be denuded of resources (troops, fortifications, mines, ISR, artillery, mobile reserves, etc.) without such an outcome.  Or, perhaps, they knew full well they were playing with fire but it was the only way to keep feeding their offensive doctrine on Ukrainian territory.  Either way, they left the door (almost) wide open for Ukraine to come in.

Basically, Russia made a Maginot Line mistake.  They invested all their resources onto Ukrainian territory in the expectation that is where the fighting would be.  Add in the usual Russian incompetency, corruption, and Soviet culture and it was made so much worse.

One of the biggest benefits of what Ukraine did is that Russia has to maneuver forces into place.  I'm sure this was anticipated by Ukraine and resources set aside to perform interdiction.  Thanks to the Russian Kharkiv offensive, those interdiction plans include things such as HIMARS.  Something that wasn't previously possible. 

In fact, this could have played a primary role in Ukraine assessing such an attack as viable, because without NATO weaponry smashing things on Russian soil, this offensive would simply not be possible.

On the Ukrainian side, they obviously planned this in great detail that leveraged all of their lessons learned up to this point.  In particular the importance of keeping the local skies free of Russian drones (in particular ISR), helicopters, and long distance fixed wing dumb bomb drops.  A clever use of EW and large numbers of friendly drones provided overmatch.

With all this accomplished, Ukrainian ground forces could basically walk in with small arms because there really isn't anything the Russians can do about it.  Yes, for sure Ukraine is moving forces around in vehicles of various types, but if Ukraine hadn't done all of the above they would be smoking hulks just like last summer.

Steve

[Kraft]

Interestingly, the russians claimed they defeated a raid on the kinburn spit, showing low quality video that films a boat and a couple of corpses (not clearly ID-able) floating nearby.

 

However, today the HUR also released a video, with footage from this (or another?) raid.

 

Showing 4 boats (rus reported 12? Participated)

[Battlefront.com]

29 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Abchazian probably, some accounts even pinted toward concrete unit with this type of vehicles.

I looked at it more closely.  It is either Bashkortostan or Kabardino-Balkaria.  Both have blue/white/green flags with a different symbol in the middle.  I can't make out any symbol so I'm guessing Bashkortostan as Kabardino-Balkaria's symbol is easier to see.

Steve

[danfrodo]

1 minute ago, Kraft said:

Interestingly, the russians claimed they defeated a raid on the kinburn spit, showing low quality video that films a boat and a couple of corpses (not clearly ID-able) floating nearby.

 

However, today the HUR also released a video, with footage from this (or another?) raid.

 

Showing 4 boats (rus reported 12? Participated)

As usual, the amazing RU military able to destroy a dozen boats when only four were present!  Just like in Kharkiv where RU destroyed 102 vehicles of the dozen or so sent across the border.

[Battlefront.com]

Let's all continue to be cautious about how we characterize this attack.  It appears to be more than a raid, but it is not clear that it is.  Scale is not something that determines the difference between a raid and other forms of offensive action. DO NOT be fooled into thinking that just because Ukraine is investing more than a couple companies of light infantry that this must be something other than a raid.

Raids are characterized by entering enemy territory, causing maximum damage and mayhem, then leaving when things become more difficult to remain in place.

We are definitely seeing Ukrainian forces moving about and causing a lot of damage and mayhem, for sure.  We must wait to see how Ukraine handles the terrain.  If they consolidate and dig in, then this is no longer a raid (though MAYBE it started out as one).  If they withdraw quickly, then it was likely a raid (though MAYBE it started out as something else).

We simply do not know yet.

Steve

[billbindc]

57 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

That is pretty big.  For him to say that, of all people, hints at very large things going on behind the scenes.  We have not seen someone this big and powerful, with a seat at the inner circle table, say something this strongly before.

Steve

I wouldn't read too much into this. Deripaska has been pretty clear on what he thinks of the war since the beginning and he's not really in the inner circle. He, like most oligarchs now, is kept around because he is useful and he'd be a big problem if he thought he was going to be liquidated and managed to defect. He knows things...particularly about Trump...that would be quite damaging to Putin's interests. 

[ArmouredTopHat]

21 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

You ASSUME it's doing something, but all we know for sure is Ukrainian forces are moving, not how they are moving.  Or do you have sources of information that nobody else here has?  Provided it isn't from classified sources, can you please share your evidence with the class?

What we are seeing, clearly, is a combination of Ukrainian ingenuity exploiting Russian limitations.  The biggest of which was Russian complacency and assumptions that the border area could be denuded of resources (troops, fortifications, mines, ISR, artillery, mobile reserves, etc.) without such an outcome.  Or, perhaps, they knew full well they were playing with fire but it was the only way to keep feeding their offensive doctrine on Ukrainian territory.  Either way, they left the door (almost) wide open for Ukraine to come in.

Basically, Russia made a Maginot Line mistake.  They invested all their resources onto Ukrainian territory in the expectation that is where the fighting would be.  Add in the usual Russian incompetency, corruption, and Soviet culture and it was made so much worse.

One of the biggest benefits of what Ukraine did is that Russia has to maneuver forces into place.  I'm sure this was anticipated by Ukraine and resources set aside to perform interdiction.  Thanks to the Russian Kharkiv offensive, those interdiction plans include things such as HIMARS.  Something that wasn't previously possible. 

In fact, this could have played a primary role in Ukraine assessing such an attack as viable, because without NATO weaponry smashing things on Russian soil, this offensive would simply not be possible.

On the Ukrainian side, they obviously planned this in great detail that leveraged all of their lessons learned up to this point.  In particular the importance of keeping the local skies free of Russian drones (in particular ISR), helicopters, and long distance fixed wing dumb bomb drops.  A clever use of EW and large numbers of friendly drones provided overmatch.

With all this accomplished, Ukrainian ground forces could basically walk in with small arms because there really isn't anything the Russians can do about it.  Yes, for sure Ukraine is moving forces around in vehicles of various types, but if Ukraine hadn't done all of the above they would be smoking hulks just like last summer.

Steve

According to this propagandist (Who is an utter very rude word by the way), the AFU are using heavy vehicles in these attacks. 

[ArmouredTopHat]

Two major ammunition depots for airbase munitions destroyed recently. This is a very good positive pattern. 

*Edit for better pictures*
 

 

Edited August 9 by ArmouredTopHat

[FancyCat]

Just two vehicles so let's see if more appear, and you never know UKR payop but first sign of oof.

Quote

Russians now abandoning some of their most advanced tanks (T-80BVM, which first entered service in 2018) in Kursk Oblast as they flee the advancing Ukrainian forces.

Dear liberators, the routed occupiers have left two tanks (thereof one T-80BVM) unattended in the lobby.

Please come pick them up: 36U XB 57257 72542
51.182649, 35.250077

Goncharovka, Kursk
@GeoConfirmed @UAControlMap

Source: https://t.me/rodnaya_sudzha/9048
51.182649, 35.250077
Proof:

h/t @Bielitzling , our ground level POV god of geolocation

According to @lost_warinua , both are T-80BVM. Ouch.

 

[ArmouredTopHat]

3 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Just two vehicles so let's see if more appear, and you never know UKR payop but first sign of oof.

 

Flashbacks of 2022 if true...

[Letter from Prague]

37 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

We are definitely seeing Ukrainian forces moving about and causing a lot of damage and mayhem, for sure.  We must wait to see how Ukraine handles the terrain.  If they consolidate and dig in, then this is no longer a raid (though MAYBE it started out as one).  If they withdraw quickly, then it was likely a raid (though MAYBE it started out as something else).

We simply do not know yet.

Steve

I think staying around long enough so that Russia has to reposition a lot, instead of just trying to patch the hole with whatever they have nearby (which is what they seem to be doing now) would be the sweet spot, especially as Ukraine can attrit the stuff on the move much more easily than if it was dug in somewhere in Donbas.

Also, this is a huge security hole. Not sure if this is quite Ukraine's style, but there could be host of Budanov's best special agents flowing into Russia right now.

[LongLeftFlank]

41 minutes ago, billbindc said:

He knows things...particularly about Trump...that would be quite damaging to Putin's interests. 

Linky, svp?

[kimbosbread]

19 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Also, this is a huge security hole. Not sure if this is quite Ukraine's style, but there could be host of Budanov's best special agents flowing into Russia right now.

Yeah, there need to be vanfuls of guys with explosives, drones and bolt cutter going to destroy every locomotive, substation, bridge, radar and airbase within a day or two’s drive.

[Letter from Prague]

6 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Yeah, there need to be vanfuls of guys with explosives, drones and bolt cutter going to destroy every locomotive, substation, bridge, radar and airbase within a day or two’s drive.

I'd say "Iskander Factory" probably isn't on Google Maps, but it might be on Yandex ...

[dan/california]

Quote

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1eo3rts/the_38th_brigade_of_marines_arranges_dronopad_its/

 

The 38th brigade of marines arranges "Dronopad". Its pilots destroy enemy reconnaissance UAVs in the South.

 

I count nine Orlan/Zala class downed in this one video. The Russians are going to have to figure out a counter to interceptor FPV drones, or go on an ISR diet.

[Kraft]

PsyOp or actual DRG range

[omae2]

4 hours ago, Astrophel said:

Perhaps I was unclear.  The last thing the Ukrainians should be doing is capturing places.  They do not have the manpower to hold huge amounts of territory against inevitable reprisals.  They need to attack russian morale,  in the tv audiences, the places they surround, and in the rear of the russian army which is now pointing in the wrong direction.

Nah they should get some bargaining weight when the peace talk came. Even a tiny bit of russia is worth a lot cause its unacceptable to lose even an inch. russian morale is how to say this, they are moderately motivated until their *** open from an fpv strike. With casualties you cannot make morale damage to a country that is lying constantly. I think if the Ukrainians can hold even a tiny bit of russia (and that place is flanked with Ukraine so why not) than its something to pull the cocksuckers at russia to the negotiating table. I am yet very surprised the amount of success the AFU achieved. Now they only have to hold out.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

According to this propagandist (Who is an utter very rude word by the way), the AFU are using heavy vehicles in these attacks. 

Argh.  We're back to your habit of posting a conclusion without any evidence, then when pressed for evidence, posting something that isn't.  That video you posted is absolutely hilariously irrelevant.

To be clear, my beef is with this:

"This is certainly the sort of environment where suddenly having things like tanks / IFVs / direct fire become very useful!"

I agree that this is the sort of environment where having things that make booms is useful.  There is also some evidence that Ukraine is employing tanks and IFVs in this environment in a way that is refreshingly old fashioned (i.e. possible to do without getting immediately killed).  But I see no evidence to suggest that the reason Ukraine is advancing is because of the direct fire capabilities of tanks/IFVs.  I asked you for evidence, you produced none.  It might turn out that you're correct, but at the present moment you are making an unsupported declarative statement based on nothing more than blind faith and/or wishful thinking.

Steve