How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Holien]

If we look at past history to inform the current situation maybe the Tet Offensive in Vietnam might be one to look at?

Ukraine might get hammered in this attack (hopefully not) but the political damage will be worth any loss of life.

Russia might be woken by this attack, as was America when the Tet offensive happened. The start of the end phase?

Edited August 9 by Holien

[Maciej Zwolinski]

Whatever the military value of this [offensive?incursion?raid?] turns out to be, the entertainment and propaganda value so far is very high. Nice. The only thing lacking is for F-16 to bomb some Russian column near to Kursk and the Russians will go crazy.

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, Kraft said:

The russian column from yesterday met Himars cluster dungsten balls

Hmm non-burned-out trucks seem to be mostly intact including coverings. If hit by HIMARS pellets, they should look like sweese cheese. Perhaps they piled bodies from different vehicles in those trucks afterwards, but on other side they look like they died inside.

Edited August 9 by Beleg85

[Kraft]

7 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Hmm non-burned-out trucks seem to be mostly intact including coverings. If hit by HIMARS pellets, they should look like sweese cheese. Perhaps they piled bodies from different vehicles in those trucks afterwards, but on other side they look like they died inside.

The one truck on the road (out of formation) with the stretcher infront drove in to collect bodies/wounded, one of the column trucks has a ripped tarp. A lot of deflated tires too but no shell craters, that hints to me at tungsten

I dont see another way this could have happend, as there is virtually no damage to the surrounding area and these units died on the spot, ie did not try to flee and this is far beyond the furthest raid parties reach

Maybe the Video is just too poor quality to show tarp holes

Edited August 9 by Kraft

[Beleg85]

17 minutes ago, Kraft said:

The one truck on the road (out of formation) with the stretcher infront drove in to collect bodies/wounded, one of the column trucks has a ripped tarp. A lot of deflated tires too but no shell craters, that hints to me at tungsten

I dont see another way this could have happend, as there is virtually no damage to the surrounding area and these units died on the spot, ie did not try to flee and this is far beyond the furthest raid parties reach

Maybe the Video is just too poor quality to show tarp holes

Even this one with strecher should have holes all over covering and sides; if we check the video again, they are all plain. If you compare these vehicles with other victims of tungsten HIMARS missiles, thousands of holes are visible from much further distance, especially under sun (light would penetrate it). None of these here have it.

So perhaps thermobarics? But there are no weapons with such warheads available to my knowledge that could hit so far beyond frontlines. Perhaps some big missle hit on the right side in the field and these folks died from overpressure.

Edited August 9 by Beleg85

[Grigb]

RU Nat reports

Quote

The head of the Kurchatov administration: the situation in the Kursk NPP area is extremely tense — fighting is taking place several dozen kilometers from the nuclear power plant.

Very strange statement unless he means fighting at Kromsky Byki or Bolshoe Soldatskoe. The only possible location for  UKR troops that close to Power Plant is in the area around Miliutino (South East from Lgov). 

[Kraft]

Quote

The enemy is maneuvering in armored groups, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are using tanks with mine-clearing equipment to overcome minefields. It is also clear that the enemy's lead vehicles are welded with anti-drone "barbecues."

Source: Two majors

I dont even recognize the vehicle, what is that?

Edited August 9 by Kraft

[pavel.k]

Absence of RU traffic on Yandex Maps could be caused by EW too, i guess?

[Grigb]

27 minutes ago, pavel.k said:

Absence of RU traffic on Yandex Maps could be caused by EW too, i guess?

No.

Yesterday, there was RU traffic in Snagost when RU announced there was meeting engagement there. Second, Korenevo is major RU strongpoint. However, there is RU traffic to Korenevo and often in Korenevo itself. Looks like UKR do not jam GPS at front line. Most likely they jam it in the rear areas to counter RU guided weapons. 

[chuckdyke]

 

[ArmouredTopHat]

I really think this might be a more efficient method of conducting war, so far the Russians seem to be having an utter horrible time of it. If Ukraine can repeat this kind of operation the Russians are in serious trouble. 

This does seem far better than enduring the slogging match in the Donbas. 

[ArmouredTopHat]

4 hours ago, dan/california said:

Armored Top Hat wins a round...

Edit: Of course great deal of what is happening comes down to Ukraine gaining at least temporary superiority in the drone battle. As we have speculated a number of times, the side whose bubble collapses just gets WRECKED.

This is certainly the sort of environment where suddenly having things like tanks / IFVs / direct fire become very useful!

The more I think about it the more I realise just how good a move this was. Even if there is no specific terrain objective, the Ukrainians either force the Russians to commit reserves / drone forces to the area and thus deprive themselves in other areas, or continue to suffer egregious losses blindly moving around and getting ambushed/ ripped apart piecemeal by manvouver elements and sabotage groups. Stretching out the line has bizarrely worked out for Ukraine in this regard. Fighting on the Russian terms in the Donbass seems foolish by comparison. 

All of this certainly indicates that well motivated Ukrainian brigades are far better at mobile warfare than the Russians at this point, where the Russians cannot rely on glide bombs or steady meat waves to wear down forces. This is a -far- more efficient use of resources, at least so far. 

I really cannot wait to find out how the Ukrainians broke through two defensive lines meant to prevent this so easily.

[panzermartin]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/08/one-of-ukraines-toughest-and-fastest-brigades-has-joined-the-invasion-of-russia/

That's like the biggest ukrainian counterattack since the big offensive. But we know how it will end. Is it worth it to sacrifice thousands of well trained troops in "RTS style base raids" 

[ArmouredTopHat]

10 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/08/one-of-ukraines-toughest-and-fastest-brigades-has-joined-the-invasion-of-russia/

That's like the biggest ukrainian counterattack since the big offensive. But we know how it will end. Is it worth it to sacrifice thousands of well trained troops in "RTS style base raids" 

I would argue that having your units fight in a situation where they can flourish against far less cohesive elements is far better than being ground down in a largely static front where elite troops are being eroded down just as quickly as say TDF units. 

Yes, the offensive will culminate, but its already seemingly achieving its aims of drawing a lot of Russian forces towards it now, as well as seizing some defensible ground. The political results are also at this stage incredible. The Russian propaganda system simply does not know what to say. They claimed 'all units were destroyed' and this has been proven to be a massive lie. 
 

I suspect the Ukrainians are now going to remain dispersed and ambush the living daylights out of counter attacks to inflict even more losses, much like they did in 2022 against columns of Russian kit. This is exactly the sort of warfare Ukraine wants and all of it is taking place in Russian land instead of theirs. 

Edited August 9 by ArmouredTopHat

[Beleg85]

13 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/08/one-of-ukraines-toughest-and-fastest-brigades-has-joined-the-invasion-of-russia/

That's like the biggest ukrainian counterattack since the big offensive. But we know how it will end. Is it worth it to sacrifice thousands of well trained troops in "RTS style base raids" 

We aren't talking about more than several thousand troops in total in direct action, so so far there are no thousand casualties unless somone believes Gerasimov.

https://x.com/Fitek69/status/1821780342300115338

I can reveal that the UKR introduced battalion battle groups into the fight, consisting of specific brigades. For example, the Sudzha region was attacked by three mech companies from the 22nd and 88th Brigades [?], supported from the south by two companies of an unknown unit. The 22nd Brigade was additionally supported by tank companies. Here, success was achieved.

The situation is different with Koreniewo. The quick raid of the 82nd Brigade failed. The advancing 82nd and 103rd companies engaged in combat with the RUS forces. Until yesterday, the village with an important railway junction was unconquered.

According to my knowledge, the UKR took over two RUS defense lines and the engineering units immediately went to work. The rapid construction of defense lines is underway in case of a RUS counteroffensive. Of course, there is also the efficiently operating UKR logistics.

[Astrophel]

I rather hope this is an imaginative rule-breaking initiative capable of changing the game.

So many war specialists I have listened to today appear to be on the wrong foot.  Surely this is NOT about capturing and holding territory, digging in, and hoping for a negotiation?  Nothing seems less likely for Zelensky and his crew.

The situation as it appears to be for my non-military mind is that the russians have been sucked into the meat grinder over recent months.  The last Ukrainian attack was shaped along Nato lines and failed.  Since then the Ukrainians have been giving up territory yard by yard at great cost to the russians especially.  This is the kind of warfare russians understand..  In recent weeks they have understood that their tactics are working, Ukraine is on the verge of cracking - they believe-, and doubtless they have thrown the kitchen sink at breaking the meat grinder.

Now we have the fast moving manoeuvre warfare we always wanted.  Ukraine and russian partisans have no minefields to deal with and are on a roll.  They must keep moving, not dig in or try to hold towns, set up torture chambers (russian style) and waste time to issue permits for access to healthcare.  Russian TV needs to show pictures of traffic jams of fleeing civilians, surrendering conscripts, and maps of lost control in the hundreds of square kilometres.  The point in the mind of an authoritarian regime is control.  Territory is only important as a representation of Control.  Now it appears that Ukraine is expanding Control exponentially - to a russian mind - and as long as Ukraine don't dig trenches and dig in.

I hope I am right and Ukraine will rip around behind the mass of the russian army and convince them to surrender or flee.  

This war will be won when ordinary russians decide to stop fighting.  The meme of the russian saying he will be happy to live with a ukrainian flag on the town hall as long as it means peace surely speaks volumes.  Ukraine is on a blitz right now - hope, hope, and more hope!

Edited August 9 by Astrophel

[Grigb]

Let talk looks at the map.

• We have first credible claims about RU attacks - RU assaulted Malya Loknya and there are RU pushes toward Novoivanovka and Leonidovo.
• Fun fact - before the announcement of the attacks there was RU traffic along the line Kreymannoe and Kauchuk (you can see it on my morning map). Now, there is no traffic there at all. Looks like RU units drove to attack locations using Yandex map 
• There are claims that RU entered Sudzha but I consider them not credible enough yet. 
• Korenevo is firmly in RU hands. However, in the morning there was no traffic at all between Korenevo and Im,Kubishevo ( Rylsk district - see morning map). Now there is a lot of traffic. I suspect that during the night UKR bypassed Korenevo and blocked the road to Korenevo as well as cut the road between Korenevo and Glushkovo. However, I suspect that together with Malya Loknya assault and pushes toward Novoivanovka and Leonidovo there was RU counter attack along the road to Korenevo. And RU managed to deblock road to Korenevo.
• BTW, RU are evacuating locals from three districts I was talking above  - Korenevo, Glushkovo and Rylsk.
• Finally, in the morning there was no traffic until Nizhnemakhovo. Now there is traffic almost up to Ulanok. I suspect RU are pushing there as well.

So, new RU claims and tea leaves indicates that finally there is major coordinated RU counter-attack. They are trying to squeeze UKR foothold.

Also, I think is it becoming more and more evident that now UKR aim is to capture Rylsk. 

[panzermartin]

8 minutes ago, Astrophel said:

I rather hope this is an imaginative rule-breaking initiative capable of changing the game.

So many war specialists I have listened to today appear to be on the wrong foot.  Surely this is NOT about capturing and holding territory, digging in, and hoping for a negotiation?  Nothing seems less likely for Zelensky and his crew.

The situation as it appears to be for my non-military mind is that the russians have been sucked into the meat grinder over recent months.  The last Ukrainian attack was shaped along Nato lines and failed.  Since then the Ukrainians have been giving up territory yard by yard at great cost to the russians especially.  This is the kind of warfare russians understand..  In recent weeks they have understood that their tactics are working, Ukraine is on the verge of cracking, and doubtless they have thrown the kitchen sink at breaking the meat grinder.

Now we have the fast moving manoeuvre warfare we always wanted.  Ukraine and russian partisans have no minefields to deal with and are on a roll.  They must keep moving, not dig in or try to hold towns, set up torture chambers (russian style) and issue permits for access to healthcare.  Russian TV needs to show pictures of traffic jams of fleeing civilians, surrendering conscripts, and maps of lost control in the hundreds of square kilometres.  The point in the mind of an authoritarian regime is control.  Territory is only important as a representation of Control.  Now it appears that Ukraine is expanding Control exponentially - to a russian mind - and as long as Ukraine don't dig trenches and dig in.

I hope I am right and Ukraine will rip around behind the mass of the russian army and convince them to surrender or flee.  

This war will be won when ordinary russians decide to stop fighting.  The meme of the russian saying he will be happy to live with a ukrainian flag on the town hall as long as it means peace surely speaks volumes.  Ukraine is on a blitz right now - hope, hope, and more hope!

You can infinetely play this cat and mouse game, but no you cant force an army of over half a million to lose hope or surrender because you have captured a settlement 25km from the vast and sparsely guarded borders, for 2 days. Would US surrender if a mexican light brigade captured a surfer settlement in California?   

[Grigb]

35 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/08/one-of-ukraines-toughest-and-fastest-brigades-has-joined-the-invasion-of-russia/

That's like the biggest ukrainian counterattack since the big offensive. But we know how it will end. Is it worth it to sacrifice thousands of well trained troops in "RTS style base raids" 

Obviously, expert opinion. 

BTW, I do not know how it will end. How do you know?

[Lethaface]

8 hours ago, Ts4EVER said:

TBH this seems like the kind of video I would disseminate as propaganda if I was Ukraine.

I heard NATO will give free washing machine to everyone who vote to join Ukraine. Other Oblast feel left out. 

[panzermartin]

1 minute ago, Grigb said:

Obviously, expert opinion. 

BTW, I do not know how it will end. How do you know?

Surrender of army group center of Russia. 

[Grigb]

Just now, panzermartin said:

You can infinetely play this cat and mouse game, but no you cant force an army of over half a million to lose hope or surrender because you have captured a settlement 25km from the vast and sparsely guarded borders, for 2 days. Would US surrender if a mexican light brigade captured a surfer settlement in California?   

Amazing expert opinion, yes. Currently so called half of million army have severe shortage of assault meat, last uncommitted reserves, no way to enlist more meat except calling catastrophic mobilization and on top of it have to fight another battle under worst possible conditions.

Do you really want to continue this conversation?

[Grigb]

4 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Surrender of army group center of Russia. 

And how do you know?

[billbindc]

46 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/08/one-of-ukraines-toughest-and-fastest-brigades-has-joined-the-invasion-of-russia/

That's like the biggest ukrainian counterattack since the big offensive. But we know how it will end. Is it worth it to sacrifice thousands of well trained troops in "RTS style base raids" 

 Well, we don't know yet. 

But wars are won or lost when one side loses the will. As demonstration of will and as a blow against Russian expectations of success it seems like it's going pretty well so far. What Putin has sold Russia so far is the idea that the three day operation can still be won if they just stick with it long enough. If that pitch collapses, the war is pretty close to over. 

We will see.

 

[Grigb]

9 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

You can infinetely play this cat and mouse game, but no you cant force an army of over half a million to lose hope or surrender because you have captured a settlement 25km from the vast and sparsely guarded borders, for 2 days. Would US surrender if a mexican light brigade captured a surfer settlement in California?   

So, you do not know that army of over half a million is currently dying in Ukraine with around 60% RU troops praying for peace?