MikeyD Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 I'm reminded of a Douglas MacArthur quote (himself quoting a baseball player) "Hit 'em where they ain't". Does one attack directly into the teeth of a prepared enemy or do you attack someplace they aren't defending? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 46 minutes ago, MikeyD said: I'm reminded of a Douglas MacArthur quote (himself quoting a baseball player) "Hit 'em where they ain't". Does one attack directly into the teeth of a prepared enemy or do you attack someplace they aren't defending? And screw up their planning. This will make Russia move a lot of things they were not planning on moving, to a place they were not planning to move it to. There is already video of Russian tanks burning without ever getting off the semitrailer. That is the kind of thing that happens when you catch the bad guys with their pants down and they start doing things in a panic. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 Quote https://www.reddit.com/r/DroneCombat/comments/1elpv6e/full_video_ukraines_security_services_sbu_used/ [Full Video] Ukraine's Security Services (SBU) used loitering munitions / FPV strike drones to hit a pair of Russian SPGs, a BMP (armored vehicle), and several heavy supply trucks, as well as landing direct hits on enemy infantry. Published August 6, 2024 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danfrodo Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 Didn't look at news all day, just now seeing this Kursk incursion. Very interesting. Just yesterday I was wondering whether RU depleting it's front to fund it's meatwave offensives might give UKR some opportunity. But as was stated in the posts above, (paraphrase) -- to what end? Land to trade? Cause RU panic? Cut off some RU units via RU territory? Will UKR hit here, wait for RU to send units from elsewhere then pull back and hit somewhere else? Here's a toast to an eventful August and September where UKR starts make RU pay. And hopefully causes some at least local RU collapses. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 2 hours ago, dan/california said: And screw up their planning. This will make Russia move a lot of things they were not planning on moving, to a place they were not planning to move it to. There is already video of Russian tanks burning without ever getting off the semitrailer. That is the kind of thing that happens when you catch the bad guys with their pants down and they start doing things in a panic. ISW has not yet committed to any form of analysis on what is going on, but in covering what both sides are saying there's still a lot of uncertainty about what exactly is happening. Russia is claiming their usual ease of defeating Ukraine while Ukraine is remaining mostly quiet. The evidence of burning vehicles and damage is not definitive as to who's stuff it is. So I guess we need to wait a day or two to find out more. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 10 hours ago, Vanir Ausf B said: Time will tell, but not everyone is sold on the idea. Tatarigami seems to be a smart man and has written many important critiques of UAF behaviour before. But I wonder if this incursion into Kursk isn't a good distraction to take pressure off of the Eastern front. The Russian command is beholden to political warfare, not rational warfare. Sometimes only turtling means that you give too much initiative to the enemy. But also, these kinds of distractions have been tried by both sides before and generally the track record is not great. The deeper they get into Russia, the more army units which were not sent into Uktaine will respond to it, from aviation to ground troops. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 11 minutes ago, Carolus said: Tatarigami seems to be a smart man and has written many important critiques of UAF behaviour before. But I wonder if this incursion into Kursk isn't a good distraction to take pressure off of the Eastern front. The Russian command is beholden to political warfare, not rational warfare. Sometimes only turtling means that you give too much initiative to the enemy. But also, these kinds of distractions have been tried by both sides before and generally the track record is not great. The deeper they get into Russia, the more army units which were not sent into Uktaine will respond to it, from aviation to ground troops. Are there any of those left? It just so happens Iran has also started screaming for advanced SAM systems. The Russians have a break point too, and autocratic regimes are more likely to go over the cliff without so much as tapping the brake. At least that is my reading of history. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 21 minutes ago, Carolus said: Tatarigami seems to be a smart man and has written many important critiques of UAF behaviour before. But I wonder if this incursion into Kursk isn't a good distraction to take pressure off of the Eastern front. The Russian command is beholden to political warfare, not rational warfare. Sometimes only turtling means that you give too much initiative to the enemy. But also, these kinds of distractions have been tried by both sides before and generally the track record is not great. The deeper they get into Russia, the more army units which were not sent into Uktaine will respond to it, from aviation to ground troops. We ridiculed the Russian Kharkiv offensive as inept and a massive waste of manpower that could have been better invested towards the very breakthrough Ukraine is struggling to contain. And yet, Ukraine was obligated to move significant (and quality) forces to the area just as Russia wanted. Sure, it cost Russia a crapload of resources, but they don't care about that so in their eyes it is likely viewed as successful. Now we have Ukraine trying the same thing and the same arguments against it (voiced by Tatarigami) making a lot of sense. Which is that Ukraine could have used those forces to block the breakthrough in the middle of its eastern front instead of pushing in towards Kursk. Too soon to say if that's the case, because if it has a larger effect on Russian operations then maybe it was the right move to make. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 Quote https://substack.com/home/post/p-146173067 A Bottom-Up Approach To Combined Arms Operations The Ukraine War has demonstrated an urgent need for defense professionals in democratic countries to reconsider standing theories of warfighting. Like no conflict before, Putin’s assault on Ukraine has shown the power of distributed, democratized action. This is the first thing I have read from this guy, but he almost seems to condense the threads (sort of) consensus, in slightly different language. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 (edited) Quote In connection with the events in the Sudzhensk (Kursk) direction, I think it is worth paying attention to the composition of the enemy’s forces and resources that he has (or may have in the near future) deployed in this direction. 1. First, some "background" information... It seems to me that it is not worthwhile to evaluate and analyze the flow of information that poured out from that direction yesterday morning in connection with the latest events... For one simple reason - it is abundantly sprinkled on both sides with outright disinformation, various kinds of "special information" and just lies... Who, where and how deep is completely unclear... The only thing that can be said with certainty is that in this direction, over the past two days, both sides very actively and intensively used the entire spectrum of conventional weapons, including combat aircraft, as well as artillery and missile weapons. In addition, a series of battles of varying scale and scope took place in the Russian border area, as a result of which the Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to take prisoners... It can also be argued that the Ukrainian Armed Forces operate in at least two tactical directions: - towards the village of Zeleny Put, along the eastern bank of the river Snagost - and in the direction of the city of Sudzha, along the R-200 road, north of the Oleshnya river Information about the advance or lack thereof is also very controversial and unconfirmed. There is data about "advancement of 7-7.5 km", and there is data about the absence of any advance at all (then the question arises - where did the prisoners come from...?) The volume and composition of Ukrainian forces and resources participating in these actions also looks, let's say, debatable. Sometimes they "talk" about 300 fighters (essentially, a battalion...), sometimes about some "thousands of soldiers and dozens of units of equipment"... In this regard, at the present time, we can only indirectly assert that the scope and volume of these actions, as well as their content, have caused the Russian command to need to “move reserve forces and resources to this direction.” 2 . Therefore, it is worth taking a closer look at what exactly the enemy has in this direction and can attract additional forces there... The first thing worth noting is the fact that the events are taking place in the zone of action of the enemy's group of forces (GV) "North", or better to say - a certain set of troops (forces) of the "Leningrad Military District" (LVO), deployed on the territory of three Russian border regions - Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod. Yes, it is precisely this that has now "rested" on the city of Volchansk and is trying to break through to the rear of our Kupyansk group along the direction of Volchansk - Bely Kolodets - Bolshoy Burluk, but so far it cannot even force the Volcha River in the area or within the city itself... Therefore, I do not think that the current events in the Sudzhensk direction, let's say, are random, in operational terms, in nature... These are clearly components of one clear plan of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to counter the enemy as a whole, both in the Kharkov and Sumy operational directions. In general, the GV "North" (LVO) includes... - the 6th Combined Arms Army (OVA), which has at least 2 separate motorized rifle brigades - the 25th and 138th separate motorized rifle brigades (both are currently deployed in the Volchansk area) - 11th Army Corps (18th Motorized Rifle Division\MSD, as well as - 7th Separate Motorized Rifle Regiment\MSP) - 44th Army Corps (72nd Motorized Rifle Division + 128th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade) - 14th Army Corps (AK) - 80th and 200th separate motorized rifle brigades, which are in other operational directions and are not yet fully involved in the events in the Kharkov operational direction... As well as a number of other units and subdivisions from the Civil Defense and "military districts" operating in other operational areas. In addition, it is worth noting that units of the 71st motorized rifle regiment (MR) from the 42nd motorized rifle division of the 58th OVA of the Southern Military District (SMD) were deployed directly in the Sudzhensk direction. Yes, you are not mistaken, these are "partially" the same "don-don" units that, over the last few days, due to the "mortal threat" that arose for them as a result of the massive and intensive use of weapons by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, sharply "improved" their positions in this direction... As it becomes clear, the main forces of the GV "North" are currently deployed in the direction of Volchansk and Liptsy (i.e., in the Kharkov, and not the Sumy operational direction, where the latest events are taking place)... - both brigades of the 6th OVA are there - The 44th AK also... with the exception of a couple of battalions - and the 11th AK is there too, possibly without the 7th separate motorized rifle regiment Moreover, reserves that are not normally part of the LVO are also involved and transferred to its command for “temporary use” - the 155th Separate Marine Brigade (separate MP), the 83rd Separate Airborne Assault Brigade (separate airborne assault brigade), and even the 2nd Separate Special Purpose Brigade (separate SPN)... In general, solely according to my own estimates, GV "Sever" at this stage has: - up to 72-75 thousand personnel (hp) - approximately up to 320-350 tanks - somewhere around 760-770 armored combat vehicles (BBM) - for 800-820 artillery systems (AS) - and up to 150-160 units of multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)... Of course, I could be wrong. but, in my subjective opinion, the "order of numbers" is somewhere like this. 3. Now a little conspiracy theory... It is clear that "without special need" the Russians would not officially announce the movement of any, as yet unnamed, reserves to the Sudzhensk direction... This is already being recorded (of course, in the Belgorod region, as well as directly near Kursk and Bryansk, in the direction of Kursk region). Obviously, the Russian command is "so alarmed" by these events in its borderland, in Kursk region... I think the key factor for their further development will be the question of how seriously he takes them in reality, and not in words... Yes, it is entirely possible to allow a real movement of part of the troops (forces) of the GV "North" from the Kharkov to the Sumy operational direction... But in what volume and in what composition...? Could this not be a kind of "playing along" with the Ukrainian Armed Forces in creating false ideas in them regarding the reaction of the Russian command to the events in the Kursk region? In general, is this capable of influencing the situation "near Volchansk"...? Of course it can... However, how significant is it...? So, for now... there are more questions "in connection" with the events in the Sudzhensk direction than real, and most importantly - ARGUMENTED by the corresponding results, answers... Therefore, we are closely monitoring the developments... https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/2096 Mashovets has posts on the Kursk incursion. Edited August 7 by Carolus Added 3rd post 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 (edited) 1 hour ago, dan/california said: Are there any of those left? It just so happens Iran has also started screaming for advanced SAM systems. The Russians have a break point too, and autocratic regimes are more likely to go over the cliff without so much as tapping the brake. At least that is my reading of history. Russia has been severely weakened and depleted, with all of its focus on Ukraine, but what remains of the RA in Russian hinterlands is more than enough to drown a plucky Ukrainian brigade in bodies and glide bombs. Whatever this gamble is, it seems very, very risky and I will say some heathen atheist prayers to hope for the best. Edited August 7 by Carolus 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 Video of Mi-28 hit with a drone. Serhiy Sternenko, who was an initiator of fundrising for "drone-interceptor" program is very angry. He just announced yesterday that "something important happened, tied with our program", but now he writes: The creature, who made a leak of Russian Mi-28 hit. You will be found and very unpleasant procedures expect you. This was a work with "long drone" for which you were donating. And there were some other plans, but they now under threat due to leakage. He posted a video too, because it already available on other sources, but added they will issue a video in better quality Sternenko said the fate of helicopter in unknown 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 Video of night raid of GUR troops on Tendra spit ("Artan" SOF unit and some other). So, Russian milblogger Сallsign OSETIN, claiming UKR troops couldn't land already lied. GUR claims their group hadn't losses and during the raid destroyed several vehicles, fortified position, EW system in lighthouse area and acomplished some secret task of operation 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 Current situation in Kursk oblast according to Russian milblogegrs. They claimed 11 villages are under UKR control. By unconfirmed information Goncharovka is contested In purple mark on more largescale map is Kursk nuclear power plant in Kurchatov city 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosuri Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 On the ground footage of Morozovsk airfield strike results 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 (edited) 31 minutes ago, Haiduk said: Video of Mi-28 hit with a drone. Serhiy Sternenko, who was an initiator of fundrising for "drone-interceptor" program is very angry. He just announced yesterday that "something important happened, tied with our program", but now he writes: The creature, who made a leak of Russian Mi-28 hit. You will be found and very unpleasant procedures expect you. This was a work with "long drone" for which you were donating. And there were some other plans, but they now under threat due to leakage. He posted a video too, because it already available on other sources, but added they will issue a video in better quality Sternenko said the fate of helicopter in unknown Uff. As fascinating as it is to see the developments of war tech in Ukraine, it is a shame that such leaks are threatening Ukrainian programs. Whoever did it sure deserves a kick in the balls in addition to whatever military discipline they will get. Edited August 7 by Carolus 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraft Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 (edited) 5 hours ago, Carolus said: Tatarigami seems to be a smart man and has written many important critiques of UAF behaviour before. But I wonder if this incursion into Kursk isn't a good distraction to take pressure off of the Eastern front. The Russian command is beholden to political warfare, not rational warfare. Sometimes only turtling means that you give too much initiative to the enemy. But also, these kinds of distractions have been tried by both sides before and generally the track record is not great. The deeper they get into Russia, the more army units which were not sent into Uktaine will respond to it, from aviation to ground troops. The light rapid forces involved that I have seen so far are able to accomplish a lot more with their speed and aggressiveness through mostly undefended areas, than putting these soldiers and their light skinned vehicles in a trench to get bombed daily by fabs, artillery and fpv. A wide quickly expanding zone russia needs to contain with far more units in a rush will draw up more resources I think. The previous operations by the free russia units were not supported by this much heavy equiptment and suffered massive losses for it, it seems this has been changed now to allow for some staying power. Although I think there are no reserves for deeper operations, which is a shame. Edited August 7 by Kraft 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinz Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 A couple hundred killed and captured conscripts are certain to make pretty bad news back in Russia. That's probably what I would do. Raid the border for conscripts 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe982 Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 11 hours ago, MikeyD said: Does one attack directly into the teeth of a prepared enemy or do you attack someplace they aren't defending? During the Great War, German storm troopers became famous for moving around prepared positions and attacking the places not defended. Still applies today. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 RU claim UKR captured Gas measuring station "Sudzha" 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 3 hours ago, Carolus said: Uff. As fascinating as it is to see the developments of war tech in Ukraine, it is a shame that such leaks are threatening Ukrainian programs. Whoever did it sure deserves a kick in the balls in addition to whatever military discipline they will get. In reality RU were aware of UKR drones hunting RU helicopters for half a year. The footage was not as unexpected as they had anticipated it. It does not threaten anything. RU can do very little right now. Some UKR do believe the RU beast has no brains at all. That's why the war has been so lengthy and bloody. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 (edited) RU claims that UKR is either in Sudzha or has complete control over it. [EDIT] It is not verified. Everyone is confused, and most likely RU are confused by info fakes. [EDIT2] RU local claim that UKR flag is over Sudzha clinic (Looks like it is located in the western part of the town, closest to UKR border) . Edited August 7 by Grigb 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 (edited) RU claim is in operational encirclement. Most likely it means UKR bypassed Sudzha. [EDIT] RU map marks Sudzha and small village Bondarevka (to the North East of Sudzha). Looks like here is where UKR forces were sighted. Edited August 7 by Grigb 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 RU Nat opinion about possibility of suprise Quote On the offensive of the Ukrainians in the Kursk region 1) We overslept the Ukrainian [offensive]. The Ukrainians concentrated/maneuvered near our borders. I am sure that we saw all of this and one young captain shouted into the phone that the Ukrainians were about to go, but they [RU command] did not hear him on the other end of the line. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 Another RU Nat description of local RU forces Quote There were few of our infantrymen in this direction, and the reserves had not yet arrived. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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