How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[zinz]

Quote

In general, the last few days, also the number of reports about destruction of the Russian artillery went down – simply because this is ever more seldom deployed in combat: it suffered such heavy losses over the last few months (and that while ZSU artillery was so short on ammo): now, when Ukrainians have artillery ammo again, the Keystone Cops are trying to save what’s left of their artillery. Of course, the less the Russian artillery is shooting, the better.

That's an interesting observation from Tom Cooper. Do we have more evidence for that claim? 

https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-29-may-2024

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Viko said:

what nonsense. I'm just posting my own opinion here

No, you are trolling.  There's a difference and that determines whether you stay or go.

You do not even pretend to be interested in having a discussion about the points you make.  You are instead full speed ahead with "whataboutisms".  The thing that is so frustrating about your behavior is that you can spit out absolute garbage faster than anybody can respond, then when people do respond you ignore them and continue to spit out more garbage.

Your understanding of warfare is not very good.  That much is clear and has already been covered by me and others.  But for the heck of it...

3 hours ago, Viko said:

in any case, this is a greater distance than the Ukrainians traveled last summer in two months

So what?  Territory is not important in terms of the overall outcome of this war.  Russia lost more territory in 2022 than all of its gains since then.  But for some reason you think Russia grabbing a tiny amount of largely undefended border terrain is the end of the line for Ukraine.  I will repeat, you are out of your depth when it comes to military analysis.  Emotional arguments are understandable, but not very useful.

4 hours ago, Viko said:

dozens of videos of kamikaze drones accompanied by upbeat music, of course, which could be more convincing evidence of Ukrainian successes.

No, detailed analysis by OSINT groups have pegged the number of vehicle losses (not all that favorable to Ukraine, BTW), Russian sources have complained about getting slaughtered, and... the offensive obviously stalled out.

You are not showing much interest in being objective, only emotional.

4 hours ago, Viko said:

But seriously, Ukraine has been preparing for this attack for several months. Everyone knew in advance where it would be held, and nevertheless, as a result of 28 criminal cases filed against 28 Ukrainian officers for breaking through the Russians near Kharkov. Are you sure this is what a successful defensive operation should look like?

And yet, even with all of that, the Russian offensive stalled out with massive losses.

Ukraine holding poorly performing officers accountable is a good thing.  The link I sent you to the Perun video covered this quite nicely.

4 hours ago, Viko said:

The number of Russian losses is not particularly important. As we see, they very quickly make up for their losses, unlike Ukraine. It will be especially difficult for well-trained Marines to make up for losses.

So what you are saying is that Ukraine shouldn't bother killing Russians?  That Ukraine should let them rebuild and come at them all at once?  Ukraine should be very thankful that you have no influence over military matters because clearly you haven't a clue.

Unfortunately for Ukraine, Russians are not armed with pointy sticks.  This means when there's a battle Ukrainians are likely going to die and be wounded.  It's inevitable.  What is not inevitable is Ukraine having disproportionately less casualties than Russian.  That only comes from superior forces against inferior forces.

I guess what you are in favor of is having TD units engage Russians to keep Marine casualties lower?  And that you would be happier with that, despite probably killing a lot less Russians in the process?

The life of a TD soldier is worth less in your eyes?

4 hours ago, Viko said:

As for the presence of the Ukrainian military on the left bank of the Dnieper, do you have any evidence other than the arrogant statements of the Ukrainians themselves?

Unlike you, Haiduk is good at analyzing sources of information and presenting information in a clear headed way.  He certainly has a lot more credibility in my eyes than you do.  Throwing temper tantrums is not good analysis.

And with that, you are on notice.  I am not interested in having a troll distract us from real discussions.  I'm sure others here agree.  I do not know for sure that you are Zeleban/ZellZeka, but I also am not convinced you aren't.

As we say in English, "you are on thin ice".  Whether you stay or go is entirely dependent upon your behavior going forward.

Steve

[Harmon Rabb]

9 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Russia enforces enlisting of merceneries from third world countries. There are more and more African and Asian (Sri Lanka especially in last time) merceneries in Russian units.  Russians in joke call them "blackorusians" or "hindurusians" depending on their origins %) 

Also reportedly they hired about 1000 african women for drone assembling on large drone factory in Yelabuga, Tatarstan Republic.

Just a platoon of 15th motor-rifle brigade

Definitely not an elite well trained mercenary you would see in a Hollywood movie.

Sounds like they are trying to explain the concept of a backblast area to this merc. However much the Russians promised to pay him, something tells me he may will not live enough to collect that money.

Edited June 1 by Harmon Rabb

[danfrodo]

3 hours ago, Viko said:

Of course this was a disaster for Ukraine. thousands of Ukrainians from the Kharkov region lost their homes. Ukrainian enterprises in the Kharkov region were destroyed. I’m not even talking about the number of killed and wounded Ukrainians. All this is a real disaster for Ukraine

OK, this is at least a point.  RU completely destroyed a UKR town.  Bad for UKR.  Except, like mentioned by a post above, it has made not strategic or operational difference to the war.  RU has gained a town they themselves utterly destroyed at the cost of thousands of soldiers and hundreds of vehicles/artillery systems.  good job, Putin.  

For something to be a success for Putin, it might actually have to achieve something meaningful.  This achieved nothing meaningful so far.  It's an epic RU failure so far relative to what they clearly wanted to achieve -- which was to end the stalemate.

Edited June 1 by danfrodo

[Battlefront.com]

Another reminder that military corruption is a problem in the West as well.  A four star Admiral of the USN has been arrested on bribery charges relating to steering a no-bid contract to some buddies that hired him for exactly that reason.  Pretty common arrangement, unfortunately:

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/01/navy-admiral-arrest-bribery-00161144

Steve

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

Were getting some very interesting reports from today. Remember when I mentioned the Russians were complaining? Whenever their mil bloggers get this upset, its usually because of pretty colossal mistakes. (Even for the Russians)
 

Yet this is seemingly a disaster for Ukraine? (according to Viko)

*Edit*

Now also reports of significant counter attacks

So on that first post, this is what we mean when we say “illuminated battlefield”.  Neither side can move vehicles or even pers without getting picked up well out and then lit up. This was up near Sumy which is over 100km from Kharkiv.  We have seen this again and again in this war.  The larger the concentration, the greater the likelihood of interdiction and annihilation.  So we then see both sides penny packeting mech to sneak them forward, and everyone in the west goes “see, they don’t know how to do combined arms!”  I am beginning to think that it is us who don’t know how to do modern combined arms in this environment.

[zinz]

To be fair to the Russians they didn't have to hide until now. And they really want to learn the hard way at every step 

16 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So on that first post, this is what we mean when we say “illuminated battlefield”.  Neither side can move vehicles or even pers without getting picked up well out and then lit up. This was up near Sumy which is over 100km from Kharkiv.  We have seen this again and again in this war.  The larger the concentration, the greater the likelihood of interdiction and annihilation.  So we then see both sides penny packeting mech to sneak them forward, and everyone in the west goes “see, they don’t know how to do combined arms!”  I am beginning to think that it is us who don’t know how to do modern combined arms in this environment.

 

[The Steppenwulf]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Another reminder that military corruption is a problem in the West as well.  A four star Admiral of the USN has been arrested on bribery charges relating to steering a no-bid contract to some buddies that hired him for exactly that reason.  Pretty common arrangement, unfortunately:

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/01/navy-admiral-arrest-bribery-00161144

Steve

The significant difference is that there are checks and balances in place in western militaries that serve to expose corruption..... and they are very effective. Furthermore, there are serious consequences anyone caught adopting corrupt practices.

Moreover, the problem with countries like Russia and Ukraine is that it's not only military shenanigans, it's literally everything; bribes for this, a top slice for that! It's not an exaggeration to state that its endemic. In the west, especially those nations within the EU, there are extensive regulations underpinned by EU laws governing how commerce operates including a significant degree of transparency, much more than there is in the US. The average citizen (not referring to anyone on this forum) often underestimate the fundamental role of regulatory law (as well as enforcement) to deter corruption to the extent that it is severely curtailed.
  

EDIT: What I'm getting at is that it's the total ineffectiveness of any governing framework (inc proper separation of powers ) that's at the real heart of the problem.
 

Edited June 2 by The Steppenwulf

[ArmouredTopHat]

17 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So on that first post, this is what we mean when we say “illuminated battlefield”.  Neither side can move vehicles or even pers without getting picked up well out and then lit up. This was up near Sumy which is over 100km from Kharkiv.  We have seen this again and again in this war.  The larger the concentration, the greater the likelihood of interdiction and annihilation.  So we then see both sides penny packeting mech to sneak them forward, and everyone in the west goes “see, they don’t know how to do combined arms!”  I am beginning to think that it is us who don’t know how to do modern combined arms in this environment.

I think it has more to do with the fact the Russians did not disperse properly with the same degree of usual care and consideration you would do normally do because they thought their assets would be untouchable. The bloggers specifically mention this was something reminiscent of 2022 with tight columns more suited for exercise movements being caught out and destroyed. Dispersal is and was a very relevant thing to be doing even before this war, its just the Russians were arrogant enough to think they could get away with not doing so here. 

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

I think it has more to do with the fact the Russians did not disperse properly with the same degree of usual care and consideration you would do normally do because they thought their assets would be untouchable. The bloggers specifically mention this was something reminiscent of 2022 with tight columns more suited for exercise movements being caught out and destroyed. Dispersal is and was a very relevant thing to be doing even before this war, its just the Russians were arrogant enough to think they could get away with not doing so here. 

Yes, complacency and/or incompetence due to being "safely" behind the lines.

I want to now what Ukraine hit them with.  HIMARS would only work if the column was stopped (we saw a brilliant one earlier this year), but it sounds like the strike could have been while it was on the move.  In which case it probably was FPVs to stop the column and HIMARS to decimate it.

If this was a combo FPV/artillery ambush, I've been waiting to see one this whole war.  Since I haven't yet, I'm inclined to believe the morons stopped their column for some reason while already being actively tracked by Ukrainians.  We know the reaction time is a few minutes, so the column stopping for a smoke break would be all that is needed.

Steve

[ArmouredTopHat]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes, complacency and/or incompetence due to being "safely" behind the lines.

I want to now what Ukraine hit them with.  HIMARS would only work if the column was stopped (we saw a brilliant one earlier this year), but it sounds like the strike could have been while it was on the move.  In which case it probably was FPVs to stop the column and HIMARS to decimate it.

If this was a combo FPV/artillery ambush, I've been waiting to see one this whole war.  Since I haven't yet, I'm inclined to believe the morons stopped their column for some reason while already being actively tracked by Ukrainians.  We know the reaction time is a few minutes, so the column stopping for a smoke break would be all that is needed.

Steve

Its possible we might get footage of it very soon if the whole thing was under direct observation via drone. Though there is a possibility of this being the result of ground based spotting as well. 

[FancyCat]

interesting it was near Sumy. was under impression only nearby Kharkiv. 

VoA interview with DoD on the parameters of the approval: A lot of wordplay ongoing. 

Quote

Michael Carpenter, senior director for Europe at the National Security Council, spoke with VOA's Iuliia Iarmolenko to discuss details of the new policy and explain what prompted the president’s reversal of a longstanding ban.

Carpenter, former U.S. ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, emphasized that U.S. policies barring Ukraine from using American-provided ATACMS, or long-range missiles, and other munitions to strike offensively inside Russia have not changed.

VOA: Could you provide details about this shift in policy? What is allowed and what are the limitations?

MICHAEL CARPENTER, SENIOR DIRECTOR FOR EUROPE AT NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL: This is in the context of the Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region against Ukraine. Russians were striking targets in Ukraine from just across the border. And at that point, the Ukrainians came to us with a request to use U.S.-provided weapons to be able to hit back at the Russian weapons that were targeting Ukrainian villages and Ukrainian people and their homes. And so the president directed his national security team to look into this and directed them to change the guidance and to allow for the employment of U.S. provided weapons to be able to strike back. That guidance has now gone into effect.

VOA: Does it apply only to the Kharkiv region?

CARPENTER: This applies to counter-fire capabilities that are deployed just across the border. It does not apply to ATACMS or long-range strikes. This is meant to enable Ukrainians to defend themselves against what would otherwise be a Russian sanctuary across the border.

VOA: But in the Sumy region, would it be possible to do so there?

CARPENTER: As I said, this applies to enable Ukrainians to defend themselves. Yes, across the border for Russian attacks that are coming across, where otherwise Russians would enjoy a relative sanctuary on their side of the border.

 

Edited June 2 by FancyCat

[The_Capt]

51 minutes ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

I think it has more to do with the fact the Russians did not disperse properly with the same degree of usual care and consideration you would do normally do because they thought their assets would be untouchable. The bloggers specifically mention this was something reminiscent of 2022 with tight columns more suited for exercise movements being caught out and destroyed. Dispersal is and was a very relevant thing to be doing even before this war, its just the Russians were arrogant enough to think they could get away with not doing so here. 

So if they somehow dispersed they would have  it been picked up and lit up? That does not track based on a lot of evidence piling up.  We have seen wave after wave of vehicles on both sides suffering the consequences of concentration.  In this case I suspect they knew they were spotted but did not think the UA had the range.

Regardless, the illumination of these battlefields is shaping how this war is being fought.  One cannot hide 10-20 heavy, hot metal vehicles when sensors are deployed from ground to space.  We have yet to see an operational surprise in this war, pretty much since the beginning.  The closest may have been the Kharkiv offensive but reports are the RA was picked up, the UA just couldn’t do anything about it.

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

So if they somehow dispersed they would have  it been picked up and lit up? That does not track based on a lot of evidence piling up.  We have seen wave after wave of vehicles on both sides suffering the consequences of concentration.  In this case I suspect they knew they were spotted but did not think the UA had the range.

Regardless, the illumination of these battlefields is shaping how this war is being fought.  One cannot hide 10-20 heavy, hot metal vehicles when sensors are deployed from ground to space.  We have yet to see an operational surprise in this war, pretty much since the beginning.  The closest may have been the Kharkiv offensive but reports are the RA was picked up, the UA just couldn’t do anything about it.

 

Don't forget we've seen quite a number of instances where the Russian behavior was tailored to how safe they felt. Air bases with minimal prep for artillery, ships casually sitting in docks, supply bases with everything packed in one building, unloading trains close to the front, barracks with hundreds of troops hanging out, HQs that were acting as if they didn't need to be in bunkers, etc.  So it seems the trend here continues where units are moving around Mother Russia without any consideration for combat spacing because they thought they were out of range.

If this incident is like all the others I mentioned, Russia will learn not to do this after a couple of smack downs.

Steve

[ArmouredTopHat]

28 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Don't forget we've seen quite a number of instances where the Russian behavior was tailored to how safe they felt. Air bases with minimal prep for artillery, ships casually sitting in docks, supply bases with everything packed in one building, unloading trains close to the front, barracks with hundreds of troops hanging out, HQs that were acting as if they didn't need to be in bunkers, etc.  So it seems the trend here continues where units are moving around Mother Russia without any consideration for combat spacing because they thought they were out of range.

If this incident is like all the others I mentioned, Russia will learn not to do this after a couple of smack downs.

Steve

Complacency kills rearing its ugly head yet again it seems. 

[Viko]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

No, you are trolling.  There's a difference and that determines whether you stay or go.

You do not even pretend to be interested in having a discussion about the points you make.  You are instead full speed ahead with "whataboutisms".  The thing that is so frustrating about your behavior is that you can spit out absolute garbage faster than anybody can respond, then when people do respond you ignore them and continue to spit out more garbage.

Your understanding of warfare is not very good.  That much is clear and has already been covered by me and others.  But for the heck of it...

So what?  Territory is not important in terms of the overall outcome of this war.  Russia lost more territory in 2022 than all of its gains since then.  But for some reason you think Russia grabbing a tiny amount of largely undefended border terrain is the end of the line for Ukraine.  I will repeat, you are out of your depth when it comes to military analysis.  Emotional arguments are understandable, but not very useful.

No, detailed analysis by OSINT groups have pegged the number of vehicle losses (not all that favorable to Ukraine, BTW), Russian sources have complained about getting slaughtered, and... the offensive obviously stalled out.

You are not showing much interest in being objective, only emotional.

And yet, even with all of that, the Russian offensive stalled out with massive losses.

Ukraine holding poorly performing officers accountable is a good thing.  The link I sent you to the Perun video covered this quite nicely.

So what you are saying is that Ukraine shouldn't bother killing Russians?  That Ukraine should let them rebuild and come at them all at once?  Ukraine should be very thankful that you have no influence over military matters because clearly you haven't a clue.

Unfortunately for Ukraine, Russians are not armed with pointy sticks.  This means when there's a battle Ukrainians are likely going to die and be wounded.  It's inevitable.  What is not inevitable is Ukraine having disproportionately less casualties than Russian.  That only comes from superior forces against inferior forces.

I guess what you are in favor of is having TD units engage Russians to keep Marine casualties lower?  And that you would be happier with that, despite probably killing a lot less Russians in the process?

The life of a TD soldier is worth less in your eyes?

Unlike you, Haiduk is good at analyzing sources of information and presenting information in a clear headed way.  He certainly has a lot more credibility in my eyes than you do.  Throwing temper tantrums is not good analysis.

And with that, you are on notice.  I am not interested in having a troll distract us from real discussions.  I'm sure others here agree.  I do not know for sure that you are Zeleban/ZellZeka, but I also am not convinced you aren't.

As we say in English, "you are on thin ice".  Whether you stay or go is entirely dependent upon your behavior going forward.

Steve

And what will be the reason for the ban this time? Will I be declared the new Zeleban? Or will the reason be that I am saying facts here that are unpleasant for some participants in this forum to hear?

[MikeyD]

Not so much unpleasant as nonsensical.

[Holien]

42 minutes ago, Viko said:

what will be the reason for the ban this time?

Steve has laid out pretty clearly to you what you need to do to stay, engage in honest debate and back up your pov with examples and defend your position with evidence. 

Your modus operandi is pretty clear.

This post of yours shows clearly that you don't get it and you are not prepared to engage in fair discussion.

I presume you have already chosen your next forum name?

[Battlefront.com]

32 minutes ago, Viko said:

And what will be the reason for the ban this time? Will I be declared the new Zeleban? Or will the reason be that I am saying facts here that are unpleasant for some participants in this forum to hear?

From a factual standpoint, I can not think of a single thing you have said that hasn't already been discussed here and/or referenced to an outside source.  I don't ban people for repeating information, so obviously that's not why you are on "thin ice".

Sadly, the fact that you are not clear on why you are being warned is exactly why you being warned.  I've stated it several times now; you don't seem interested in listening and discussing, just yelling and throwing a tantrum when people challenge your OPINION.

I've also said, several times, that it is clear you do not have a good understanding of warfare.  Yes, you are living in the middle of a war, but that on its own doesn't provide understanding.  Just because you ride in a car doesn't mean you know how it works, how roads are made, or perhaps even how to drive.

So I will ask you this.  If someone comes into your place of work where you are trying to get things done, screams a bunch of nonsense at everybody, disrupts the flow of work, and refuses to calm down and have a rational discussion... what would you do?   Continue to suffer through it or call security to have the person removed? 

If you wind up getting banned because of your behavior, you will be the one that is worse off for it, not us.  You have an opportunity here to cut through the Russian inspired defeatism and narrow point of view that I assume you carry around with you every day.  If you wish to remain in that state of mind, that's your choice to make.  All I can do is give you a chance.

Steve

[cesmonkey]

 

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, Holien said:

I presume you have already chosen your next forum name?

For the record...

However improbable it might be, it is possible that we have been visited by more than one Kyiv area resident that listens to too much Russian and Poroshenko inspired defeatism, is aggressive, and doesn't have any interest in engaging in real discussions. 

If the Forum admin information I have at my disposal was a little clearer I'd be able to know for sure, as I was the previous time.  Because I'm such a ruthless tyrant at heart, I am going on the presumption of innocence.  You know, because that's what evil moderators do

If Viko gets banned, it won't be because I jumped to conclusions about who he really is.

Steve

[chrisl]

5 hours ago, zinz said:

To be fair to the Russians they didn't have to hide until now. And they really want to learn the hard way at every step 

 

They've been made since early Feb 2022.  The Biden admin even posted pictures to the world to make clear that they were visible.  What's changed is Ukraine's reach and precision at the end of that reach.

You can't move a vehicle in the open without being seen by Planet Labs.  You can't move a bicycle without being seen by Maxar.  The NRO can probably see you move a Big Gulp to the other end of the picnic table.

[Letter from Prague]

3 hours ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

Complacency kills rearing its ugly head yet again it seems. 

It is not just complacency - it probably is more efficient to do it that way, if you can't get hit. Not everything Russians do is dumb, sadly.

Which makes me wonder, did the Russians not expect the West to change stance? Is it arrogance? Or did they expect it but were not able to pivot in time?

[Yet]

34 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

It is not just complacency - it probably is more efficient to do it that way, if you can't get hit. Not everything Russians do is dumb, sadly.

Which makes me wonder, did the Russians not expect the West to change stance? Is it arrogance? Or did they expect it but were not able to pivot in time?

opportunism, 

Take the most out of it as you can as long as the rules of the game are like this. Ever noticed that when people play poker for real money (how Ukr values its troops) they play different than when its with beads (how RU seems to value its troops).

[Ales Dvorak]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

All I can do is give you a chance.

Let's go!

Steve walks warily down the street
With the brim pulled way down low
Ain't no sound but the sound of his feet
Machine guns ready to go

Are you ready? Hey
Are you ready for this?
Are you hanging on the edge of your seat?
Out of the doorway the bullets rip
To the sound of the beat, yeah

Another one bites the dust
Another one bites the dust
And another one gone, and another one gone
Another one bites the dust (yeah)
Hey, I'm gonna get you too
Another one bites the dust

 

Edited June 2 by Ales Dvorak